2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread

CnG · Post #901 » by **CnG** » Fri Dec 9, 2016 12:23 pm

asdfgh wrote:So the 3 best players in the NBA used to play for the same team. Amazing.

3 leading MVP candidates*

I think it's important to differentiate between the two. Bron and Steph are better than all 3 of KD, Harden and Russ.

Johnny Firpo · Post #902 » by **Johnny Firpo** » Fri Dec 9, 2016 12:23 pm

Westbrook is a total wild card right now. The thing is, we have no idea if he would be first or third on most voters' ballot today. We have no idea how much a triple double would worth in the eyes of the voters, because it hasn't been done in forever. The narrative though, is usually right. So if the narrative around the voting would be about him winning it, that would likely be a precise indication.

Once the schedule gets tough for OKC and they inevitebly start to lose more, we will know more. But until then, all kinds of "he is running away with it" or "he doesn't have a chance because of team record" opinion holds very little value. The truth is that we have no idea if he can win it. Any poster can only express their opinion. One thing is almost certain, if somehow he can turn his team into a top 3 seed, he will likely win it.

Post #903 » by **Slava** » Fri Dec 9, 2016 12:29 pm

Clippers are like .500 over the past 12 games and CP3 has dropped a good couple of tiers down in the MVP race.

Rastas · Post #904 » by **Rastas** » Fri Dec 9, 2016 12:49 pm

The problem for Russ and Harden is to get as close to the Cavs record as possible as Lebron is also averaging close to a triple.

Triples333 · Post #905 » by **Triples333** » Fri Dec 9, 2016 1:05 pm

Rastas wrote:The problem for Russ and Harden is to get as close to the Cavs record as possible as Lebron is also averaging close to a triple.

Somewhat close to a double. He's not close to a triple double.

miman15 · Post #906 » by **miman15** » Fri Dec 9, 2016 1:33 pm

Triples333 wrote:
Rastas wrote:The problem for Russ and Harden is to get as close to the Cavs record as possible as Lebron is also averaging close to a triple.

Somewhat close to a double. He's not close to a triple double.

Same with Harden. He's far from averaging triple double.

Triples333 · Post #907 » by **Triples333** » Fri Dec 9, 2016 2:00 pm

miman15 wrote:
Triples333 wrote:
Rastas wrote:The problem for Russ and Harden is to get as close to the Cavs record as possible as Lebron is also averaging close to a triple.

Somewhat close to a double. He's not close to a triple double.

Same with Harden. He's far from averaging triple double.

Correct. Though he is averaging a double double and more PPG/APG and about the same RPG on higher efficiency than LBJ. Would be tough to find an Advanced Stat LBJ rates top 10 in as well. I don't really see him as an MVP candidate other than it simply being Lebron.

CnG · Post #908 » by **CnG** » Fri Dec 9, 2016 2:22 pm

Triples333 wrote:
miman15 wrote:
Triples333 wrote:Somewhat close to a double. He's not close to a triple double.

Same with Harden. He's far from averaging triple double.

Correct. Though he is averaging a double double and more PPG/APG and about the same RPG on higher efficiency than LBJ. Would be tough to find an Advanced Stat LBJ rates top 10 in as well. I don't really see him as an MVP candidate other than it simply being Lebron.

I agree. I feel people are throwing Lebron in there just because he's Lebron and they want a familiar name. I can't see him having a case over Harden/WB, but I could see him getting it if neither OKC or HOU get the 4th seed.

miman15 · Post #909 » by **miman15** » Fri Dec 9, 2016 2:39 pm

CnG wrote:
Triples333 wrote:
miman15 wrote:
Same with Harden. He's far from averaging triple double.

Correct. Though he is averaging a double double and more PPG/APG and about the same RPG on higher efficiency than LBJ. Would be tough to find an Advanced Stat LBJ rates top 10 in as well. I don't really see him as an MVP candidate other than it simply being Lebron.

I agree. I feel people are throwing Lebron in there just because he's Lebron and they want a familiar name. I can't see him having a case over Harden/WB, but I could see him getting it if neither OKC or HOU get the 4th seed.

Agree, Its pretty much Harden vs Westbrook. But if Houston and OKC has almost identical record, I'll give Westbrook the nod. I agree, If neither of them wont get Homecourt advantage in the 1st round, they would most certainly wont get the MVP.

ChartFiction · Post #910 » by **ChartFiction** » Fri Dec 9, 2016 10:27 pm

I see it going to Westbrook or Harden, and if they decide not to because they have too few wins, I think Durant will get it. He'll have the best personal stats and team record. Anyone else seems like a contradiction and a weird decision to me.

tundraknight · Post #911 » by **tundraknight** » Fri Dec 9, 2016 11:05 pm

asdfgh wrote:So the 3 best players in the NBA used to play for the same team. Amazing.

It makes you wonder how many championships the Thunder would have won if they all stayed together.

StepBackCrack · Post #912 » by **StepBackCrack** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 4:04 am

Harden should be the MVP leader so far.

Post #913 » by **bwgood77** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 8:00 am

MVP probability by basketball reference... http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.cgi

Post #914 » by **Young_Star11** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:30 am

Are we discounting Curry, who is (arguably) the most valuable player on his team? Does voter fatigue rule him out?

Gibson22 · Post #915 » by **Gibson22** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:50 am

I don't really get how someone keeps repeating that lebron's name should not even be throw in the argument. The bbref tracker has him as 4th, very close to the third (westbrook) and far from harden and durant. And i guess the tracker doesn't consider that he is lebron. And actually, he is lebron, you should at least take it in consideration. And moreover, right now cleveland record (.762) okc (.602) houston (.696) aren't too far from one another, i think that at the end of the season the distance will grow up. So, for those who say that lebron's name should not me mentioned: stop it.

Johnny Firpo · Post #916 » by **Johnny Firpo** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:41 am

bwgood77 wrote:MVP probability by basketball reference... http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.cgi

This is the year where I would throw this algorithm out.

Johnny Firpo · Post #917 » by **Johnny Firpo** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:42 am

Young_Star11 wrote:Are we discounting Curry, who is (arguably) the most valuable player on his team? Does voter fatigue rule him out?

Probably, yeah. I actually think Durant has a bigger chance.

Post #918 » by **bwgood77** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 2:57 pm

Johnny Firpo wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:MVP probability by basketball reference... http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.cgi

This is the year where I would throw this algorithm out.

Possibly with Durant, if only because of Curry being there too and possibly because some voters may not give the vote to him just because of the move. Harden will probably have an advantage on Westbrook though if the team finishes higher and he has the better TS % and keeps that rebound # fairly high so the possibly triple double factor doesn't hold as much weight.

Personally I like Westbrook better, but would be surprised if things continue as is to see him beat Harden.

laika · Post #919 » by **laika** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 3:32 pm

Young_Star11 wrote:Are we discounting Curry, who is (arguably) the most valuable player on his team? Does voter fatigue rule him out?

Curry is the most valuable player in the whole league, not just the Warriors. Even after the last few years most people still underestimate how valuable PGs are. They are easily the most valuable position. Durant puts up great stats but is not nearly as valuable to the Warriors as Curry.

Here are the On/Off numbers for the 6 candidates that have any chance this year. Curry is the most valuable. His Oncourt rating is ridiculous. Curry won't win though because A- most voters almost completely ignore advanced stats, and B- voters will be heavily biased against him after two wins in a row.

---------------------On------Off-------On/Off
Curry-------------19.3---+0.4--------18.9
James------------13.1-----6.4--------19.5
Westbrook-------7.5----11.9--------19.4
Paul---------------14.8-----3.7--------18.5
Durant-----------16.1----+7.2---------8.9
Harden------------7.2-----1.1----------8.3

The411 · Post #920 » by **The411** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 5:08 pm

lebron3-14-3 wrote:I don't really get how someone keeps repeating that lebron's name should not even be throw in the argument. The bbref tracker has him as 4th, very close to the third (westbrook) and far from harden and durant. And i guess the tracker doesn't consider that he is lebron. And actually, he is lebron, you should at least take it in consideration. And moreover, right now cleveland record (.762) okc (.602) houston (.696) aren't too far from one another, i think that at the end of the season the distance will grow up. So, for those who say that lebron's name should not me mentioned: stop it.

Umm because his advanced metrics aren't near the other top players. 11th in PER, 11th in WS, 10th in WS/48, 6th in BPM, 7th in VORP.

This is one of his worst seasons from an advanced metrics perspective