2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread

[ken6199]

Agreed. It will be harden as of now since he has head to head advantage as of now

Huh? Rockets and the Thunder have played twice this season and each time won one game.

Yes, it's 1-1, and both times OKC had a ferocious 4th quarter comeback. One worked out, one fell short.

Two more matchups in Houston, both national televised.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Right now, I go Westbrook.

Higher PER than Harden.

Doing something almost unprecedented in averaging a triple double. 31/11/11 is UNREAL.

[QRich3]

So, now that the Warriors are just the second best offense of the season, behind an offense based in great part on isolation midrange jumpshots no less, do Durant and Curry take the same hit to their MVP chances as they were bumping because of their 'best offense of all time'?*

*this is meant as much as a dig to the early crowning to the Warriors offense, as it is a show of respect for what the Raptors are doing this year

[crazy_me_87]

The thing with Westbrook and Harden is if you look at MVP history you basically have no chance if your Team is not at least 2nd in Your Conference.. In the last 30 years only Karl Malone was 3rd but the Jazz where tied for 2nd Best Record.

I think the Last MVP with less than 50 wins was Moses in the early 80s...
History does not bode well for Russ or the Beard...

[BallerTalk]

The thing with Westbrook and Harden is if you look at MVP history you basically have no chance if your Team is not at least 2nd in Your Conference.. In the last 30 years only Karl Malone was 3rd but the Jazz where tied for 2nd Best Record.

I think the Last MVP with less than 50 wins was Moses in the early 80s...
History does not bode well for Russ or the Beard...

You do realize that with nearly 1/3 of the season in the books Harden's Rockets are currently on pace for 59 wins
and just 1 win behind San Antonio for 2nd place in the West?
Plus only 3 games behind the league leading warriors?

Meanwhile Westbrook is averaging a triple double for the NW division leading Thunder who are on pace for 51 wins.

[ckman]

The thing with Westbrook and Harden is if you look at MVP history you basically have no chance if your Team is not at least 2nd in Your Conference.. In the last 30 years only Karl Malone was 3rd but the Jazz where tied for 2nd Best Record.

I think the Last MVP with less than 50 wins was Moses in the early 80s...
History does not bode well for Russ or the Beard...

I don't think the win matter much if Westbrook indeed average triple double throughout the season

[Triples333]

So, now that the Warriors are just the second best offense of the season, behind an offense based in great part on isolation midrange jumpshots no less, do Durant and Curry take the same hit to their MVP chances as they were bumping because of their 'best offense of all time'?*

*this is meant as much as a dig to the early crowning to the Warriors offense, as it is a show of respect for what the Raptors are doing this year

Take out this years Raps (who now have a 117.1 ORating to the Warriors 117.0 for their 1st lead of the year) and the Warriors offense would still be the highest Offensive Rating of all time. They're not dipping, the Raps are just riding their top-5 paint scoring and T-1st 3pt% along with their top-5 FT attempts on #1 FT% to a top offense this season (hint: it's not because of mid-range shooting).

As far as MVP talks go, unless one of Curry or KD miss significant time, there's little reason to believe they'll fall much lower or much higher than top 3-6. They're top-5 players in the NBA on the #1 team, so they're going to be right there, just not at the top.

Harden still has to be #1 for me. They're significantly outperforming their W/L expectations despite going through a pretty rigorous schedule to start the year. Nobody outside of Rox homers would have thought this would be a 55+ win team in the preseason, and here they are on a 7 game win streak on pace for nearly 60 wins with a top 5 SRS in the league. Westbrook's definitely the 1A for me at this point - but again (and I know this is a bit unfair because it has to play out) I can't help but look at their January schedule and just realize that's where things come crashing back down to earth for him/them.

[Styrian]

So, now that the Warriors are just the second best offense of the season, behind an offense based in great part on isolation midrange jumpshots no less, do Durant and Curry take the same hit to their MVP chances as they were bumping because of their 'best offense of all time'?*

*this is meant as much as a dig to the early crowning to the Warriors offense, as it is a show of respect for what the Raptors are doing this year

Take out this years Raps (who now have a 117.1 ORating to the Warriors 117.0 for their 1st lead of the year) and the Warriors offense would still be the highest Offensive Rating of all time. They're not dipping, the Raps are just riding their top-5 paint scoring and T-1st 3pt% along with their top-5 FT attempts on #1 FT% to a top offense this season (hint: it's not because of mid-range shooting).

3pt% really has big influence on offensive efficiency - for example if Curry, Thompson, Green and Iguodala(they are all shooting around 5% worse from 3pt than last season) shot same percentage from 3pt as last season Warriors offensive rating would go from 117.0 to over 120 (current best all time team offensive rating is 115.6).. unless this 3pt slump from Curry and Thompson continues for whole season I assume these first 25 games will be considered as offensive downswing at the end of the season.

[mademan]

So, now that the Warriors are just the second best offense of the season, behind an offense based in great part on isolation midrange jumpshots no less, do Durant and Curry take the same hit to their MVP chances as they were bumping because of their 'best offense of all time'?*

*this is meant as much as a dig to the early crowning to the Warriors offense, as it is a show of respect for what the Raptors are doing this year

Take out this years Raps (who now have a 117.1 ORating to the Warriors 117.0 for their 1st lead of the year) and the Warriors offense would still be the highest Offensive Rating of all time. They're not dipping, the Raps are just riding their top-5 paint scoring and T-1st 3pt% along with their top-5 FT attempts on #1 FT% to a top offense this season (hint: it's not because of mid-range shooting).

3pt% really has big influence on offensive efficiency - for example if Curry, Thompson, Green and Iguodala(they are all shooting around 5% worse from 3pt than last season) shot same percentage from 3pt as last season Warriors offensive rating would go from 117.0 to over 120 (current best all time team offensive rating is 115.6).. unless this 3pt slump from Curry and Thompson continues for whole season I assume these first 25 games will be considered as offensive downswing at the end of the season.

Gstate last year was also one of the best teams in the league at creating open looks while this year theyre in the bottom ten (according to NBA.com stats). Theyve also had an easier schedule against worst defensive teams than the Raptors. I'm sure the Raps will come back down to earth, but I dont think it's a given that Gstate breaks the ORTG record

[QRich3]

So, now that the Warriors are just the second best offense of the season, behind an offense based in great part on isolation midrange jumpshots no less, do Durant and Curry take the same hit to their MVP chances as they were bumping because of their 'best offense of all time'?*

*this is meant as much as a dig to the early crowning to the Warriors offense, as it is a show of respect for what the Raptors are doing this year

Take out this years Raps (who now have a 117.1 ORating to the Warriors 117.0 for their 1st lead of the year) and the Warriors offense would still be the highest Offensive Rating of all time. They're not dipping, the Raps are just riding their top-5 paint scoring and T-1st 3pt% along with their top-5 FT attempts on #1 FT% to a top offense this season (hint: it's not because of mid-range shooting).

Point being that there's been other teams that had similarly "historic" ORtgs in the first month or two, and you can't proclaim them as such a month and a half into the season. And the midrange comment was tongue in cheek but no, they're not having such a great ORtg because of paint scoring, they're actually bottom 10 in % of their points scored from there, they're at the very bottom of % of assisted points, and they're middle of the pack in % of points scored from the 3PT line. They do get to the line a lot, but as you say, other teams get more than them. They're just being incredibly effective in pretty much everything they do, even if it's not specially tilted to the conventional 'efficient' ways of making it happen.

[Shock Defeat]

It's a two man race between Harden and Westbrook. Everybody else is irrelevant. Harden's team probably needs to be 6-7 games better than Russell's team by the end of the season.

[HurricaneKid]

RWB is shooting a lower TS% than the league average. He is shooting a lower TS% than his team.

I'm all for seeing any player play all out the way he does; but this team has won based on their defense, not his gaudy stats. They are a top 5 defense right now and Westbrook is the worst defender out there a lot of the time. They are #18 in offense. Now its probably unfair to ask him to do any more than he is doing. But if he wants to be the first player ever to win MVP without an elite record shouldn't he be scoring at league avg efficiency and bolster an offense that is in the top half of the league?

[bondom34]

RWB is shooting a lower TS% than the league average. He is shooting a lower TS% than his team.

I'm all for seeing any player play all out the way he does; but this team has won based on their defense, not his gaudy stats. They are a top 5 defense right now and Westbrook is the worst defender out there a lot of the time. They are #18 in offense. Now its probably unfair to ask him to do any more than he is doing. But if he wants to be the first player ever to win MVP without an elite record shouldn't he be scoring at league avg efficiency and bolster an offense that is in the top half of the league?

Read on Twitter

He's also 2nd to only Harden in ORPM. He can't shoot. That doesn't mean he's not possibly the best offensive player in the NBA impact wise. Though at this point I don't really expect rational discussion on the gen board.

[Gil]

It's Harden's to lose. Westbrook is putting up nice stats on paper but he isn't actually making his teammates better. He only has a unimpressive 108 ORtg which is absolutely putrid for a PG.

Harden on the other hand has turned a team of rejects & role players into an offensive juggernaut. A team that wasn't even predicted/projected to make the Playoffs by many before the season started is currently on pace for 60 wins despite a brutal schedule so far. Insane.

[bondom34]

It's Harden's to lose. Westbrook is putting up nice stats on paper but he isn't actually making his teammates better. He only has a unimpressive 108 ORtg which is absolutely putrid for a PG.

Harden on the other hand has turned a team of rejects & role players into an offensive juggernaut. A team that wasn't even predicted/projected to make the Playoffs by many before the season started is currently on pace for 60 wins despite a brutal schedule so far. Insane.

? He's at a 109.1, and a +12 when he's on court. And Harden's team is full of actual offensive talent.

[The_Hater]

It's Harden's to lose. Westbrook is putting up nice stats on paper but he isn't actually making his teammates better. He only has a unimpressive 108 ORtg which is absolutely putrid for a PG.

Harden on the other hand has turned a team of rejects & role players into an offensive juggernaut. A team that wasn't even predicted/projected to make the Playoffs by many before the season started is currently on pace for 60 wins despite a brutal schedule so far. Insane.

You pulled one random number to prove a point where had you had dug deeper, you would have seen that your perception of Westbrook's impact was clearly wrong.

[HurricaneKid]

RWB is shooting a lower TS% than the league average. He is shooting a lower TS% than his team.

I'm all for seeing any player play all out the way he does; but this team has won based on their defense, not his gaudy stats. They are a top 5 defense right now and Westbrook is the worst defender out there a lot of the time. They are #18 in offense. Now its probably unfair to ask him to do any more than he is doing. But if he wants to be the first player ever to win MVP without an elite record shouldn't he be scoring at league avg efficiency and bolster an offense that is in the top half of the league?

Read on Twitter

He's also 2nd to only Harden in ORPM. He can't shoot. That doesn't mean he's not possibly the best offensive player in the NBA impact wise. Though at this point I don't really expect rational discussion on the gen board.

These days, it kind of does. And shooting 5.6 3s a game at 32% is kind of absurd. The list of guys who have done that is NOT one you would want to join.

It feels like the 2001 AI Sixers or the 2011 Bulls. Have one guy play offense with 4 defenders. The insane usage is going to result in big stat lines. I guess both those guys won MVPs. Neither guy should have though...

[bondom34]

These days, it kind of does. And shooting 5.6 3s a game at 32% is kind of absurd. The list of guys who have done that is NOT one you would want to join.

It feels like the 2001 AI Sixers or the 2011 Bulls. Have one guy play offense with 4 defenders. The insane usage is going to result in big stat lines. I guess both those guys won MVPs. Neither guy should have though...

Except when he's impacting the game at a similar level as Harden when he's shooting like that the argument has no legs.

[HurricaneKid]

These days, it kind of does. And shooting 5.6 3s a game at 32% is kind of absurd. The list of guys who have done that is NOT one you would want to join.

It feels like the 2001 AI Sixers or the 2011 Bulls. Have one guy play offense with 4 defenders. The insane usage is going to result in big stat lines. I guess both those guys won MVPs. Neither guy should have though...

Except when he's impacting the game at a similar level as Harden when he's shooting like that the argument has no legs.

And you are basing that off 20 games of naked plus minus? Because that is what you are quoting here. Seems like the adjusted +/- lean to Harden. Espn real plus minus (which is almost certainly very stat driven xRAPM that should benefit RWB) has Harden leading Westbrook by more than RWB is leading Kyle Lowry. I suspect by the time we get to larger data sets of RAPM we will see that Harden has a small but significant advantage there.

[bondom34]

These days, it kind of does. And shooting 5.6 3s a game at 32% is kind of absurd. The list of guys who have done that is NOT one you would want to join.

It feels like the 2001 AI Sixers or the 2011 Bulls. Have one guy play offense with 4 defenders. The insane usage is going to result in big stat lines. I guess both those guys won MVPs. Neither guy should have though...

Except when he's impacting the game at a similar level as Harden when he's shooting like that the argument has no legs.

And you are basing that off 20 games of naked plus minus? Because that is what you are quoting here. Seems like the adjusted +/- lean to Harden. Espn real plus minus (which is almost certainly very stat driven xRAPM that should benefit RWB) has Harden leading Westbrook by more than RWB is leading Kyle Lowry. I suspect by the time we get to larger data sets of RAPM we will see that Harden has a small but significant advantage there.

And Harden's advantage has actually decrease. Over the last 10 games, he's at a negative on/off, with the team actually performing best with Beverly.

http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612745/onoffcourt-advanced/?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&LastNGames=10&sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1

So, offensively Westbrook is carrying a heavier load and at this point has gotten closer to, not further from, Harden's production in impact offensively. He's got worse offensive support, and to this point the only thing you can actually point to is "he doesn't shoot well". Nope, he doesn't. But shooting isn't the only (or best) measure of offense at all.