Post#651 » by gags1288 » Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:14 pm
[quote="SelfishPlayer"][quote="gags1288"][quote="SelfishPlayer"]
I like your thinking but It would take the #1 pick to get McCollum. His name gets thrown around here too much for too little.[/quote]
I couldn't disagree more. I don't think McCollum is worth a top 5 pick when you take into account his age, salary, and upside. No team (particularly a rebuilding team) is passing on a potential star player for a good, but not elite (because he is a seive defensively), shooting guard who is already paid max dollars and who is unlikely to get significantly better.[/quote]
I disagree with all of your reasons for why you would GAMBLE on THIS draft. I disagree with those reasons for the absolute #1 pick, you are willing to take a top 5 pick, which makes me directly go to the lowest of the top 5, the number 5 pick. This draft from the vantage point of December 2016 doesn't look nearly talented enough to accept the #5 pick for CJ when one of the reasons is that he is 25 years old when the best player on the team is 26! Damian Lillard is 26! That team is ready to win RIGHT NOW! If CJ's age at 25 is a negative, what the hell is Damian Lillard? You are going to gamble on a young player at #5 that may not even be an NBA starter. Jahlil Okafor and Jaylen Brown are coming off of the bench for their teams and they are recent top 5 picks. Obviously the concept of "top 5 pick" holds more value to you than the actual players that will be available in THIS draft, especially with the #5 selection.[/quote]
1. This is the best draft in some time. In my view, the top 6 picks (my personal top 6 is, in no particular order, Fultz, Ball, Jackson, Tatum, Giles (if he proves healthy), and Smith Jr.) go, at worst, #2 in the last draft (I actually think many of them go #1, but I'm not nearly as high on Simmons as most here are and I'd rather avoid that conversation).
2. I'm offering the perspective of the team determining whether to trade the pick, not the perspective of Portland (which I think is important only in determining the viability of the trade). From the rebuilding team's perspective, it often does not make sense to trade a 19 year old for a 25 year old because it will be 3 or 4 years until the team is truly a contender and at that point I'd rather have a 23 year old stud than a 29 year old stud. But even for Portland, I think the deal would make sense if for no other reason then they have painted themselves into a very difficult corner with a team nowhere close to contending and with little salary flexibility. If Portland is serious about trying to build a contender, I do think they would move McCollum for a potential star (and I think all 6 of the guys listed above fit that description). If they're content being mediocre--and there off-season suggests that they are--then they probably don't make that move because the floor of the 5th pick is obviously much lower than McCollum.
3. I think a lot of our disagreement stems from our differing views as to (1) how good McCollum is and (2) how good this draft is. I think that McCollum is an excellent offensive SG, but a below average defensive SG, which makes him a good (but not elite) SG overall. And I think this is an outstanding draft, potentially the best draft of the past decade. I think that there is elite talent at the PG, SF, and PF position and that at least 5 of the six guys I named in point 1 above fit really well with Embiid and Simmons (assuming he turns out to be a cornerstone piece).
