Kawhisland

[Nolan]

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/kawhi-leonard-is-so-great-at-defense-hes-actually-hurting-the-spurs/

There's something really weird going on with the Spurs.

On the surface, there's absolutely nothing wrong. They're 19-5, with the seventh-best offense and 10th-best defense in the league. Even after the loss at Chicago last Thursday night, they've won 14 of their past 16 games and have to be the odds-on favorite to win the Southwest Division again and secure home court in the first round, even with the emergence of Houston.

So we're not discussing whether the Spurs are a good team. They clearly are. But when you hope to contend with the Warriors, you're judged by different standards. Specifically, it's the defense that is looking like a bit of a red flag, even though, again, the numbers look pretty good overall.

Kawhi Leonard's numbers, on the other hand, tell a different story.

And it's a strange one to follow.

Very very very good piece by Matt Moore. The numbers are pretty fascinating and he does a great job of explaining our woes on the defensive end.

If you have the time I really recommend that you give this a read. Enjoy.

[Phreak50]

Really intelligent article indeed. Wouldn't have known about it otherwise, thanks for sharing.

[Chinook]

I think that article is wrong in it's initial premise and in some of its data points. There is obviously something to the idea of attacking the Parker/Pau PnR defensive combo. But when you come into a study trying to prove a point rather than trying to quantify a phenomenon, you are going to suffer a ton from confirmation bias.

[Nolan]

I think that article is wrong in it's initial premise and in some of its data points. There is obviously something to the idea of attacking the Parker/Pau PnR defensive combo. But when you come into a study trying to prove a point rather than trying to quantify a phenomenon, you are going to suffer a ton from confirmation bias.

I think we're far enough into the season for this to not be a phenomenon though. This strategy is something I've personally been noticing a lot more lately (it was very evident in the Bulls game).

Out of curiosity what about this idea doesn't have you convinced?

[Chinook]

I think that article is wrong in it's initial premise and in some of its data points. There is obviously something to the idea of attacking the Parker/Pau PnR defensive combo. But when you come into a study trying to prove a point rather than trying to quantify a phenomenon, you are going to suffer a ton from confirmation bias.

I think we're far enough into the season for this to not be a phenomenon though. This strategy is something I've personally been noticing a lot more lately (it was very evident in the Bulls game).

Out of curiosity what about this idea doesn't have you convinced?

It is a phenomenon. It's not an anomaly. The writer is trying to justify how both <Kawhi is playing good defense> and <The Spurs are playing poor defense with Kawhi on the floor but great defense without him> can both be true. But the logical thing is to reject the first statement. He tried to push the entire question (why does everyone else play better without Kawhi on the floor) into an afterthought in his closing argument, when it's actually the entire question. No to mention that he touches on but completely drops that other players are shooting better against Kawhi now. So the idea that he's playing good defense is very shaky.

The Bulls game is a terrible example of the viability of this strategy. Chicago scored 21 points in the first quarter. That's an 84-point pace. That's a perfectly acceptable defensive result. The Spurs lost because they only scored 32 first-half points. In the Washington game, Kawhi's man went off on him too (this is ignoring that Kawhi guarded Beal and was burned just like everyone else). In the Magic game, the Spurs held Fournier to seven first-half points, and the writer is acting like they were being torched.

If people want to know why Kawhi's defense has taken a hit, they need to look at his offense. Right now, if he's not hitting at an unsustainable clip or getting a friendly whistle, the team can't really win. He takes so many shots, and he takes so many poor shots that the team can't set up their defense. Kawhi's shooting career lows inside 10 feet. If you keep burping up long-twos and crying to the refs, you're going to keep putting everyone else in bad positions. When he's off the court, the team takes better shots, and they get back. They don't have three players inside the paint once the other team starts running out.

Right now, the Spurs are so dependent on Kawhi hitting long-twos on both ends that it's almost sickening. Maybe it's necessary given the lack of back-court play. But they're playing with fire, and LMA and Gasol being jump-shooters themselves is only tossing gas on it.

[Nolan]

It is a phenomenon. It's not an anomaly.

My bad, that's definitely the point I was trying to get across just poor wording and a lack of coffee.

]No to mention that he touches on but completely drops that other players are shooting better against Kawhi now. So the idea that he's playing good defense is very shaky.

He did touch on it and his idea passes the eye test. Kawhi is over helping at times to try and over compensate for our poor interior defense which results in his man being left wide open.

]The Bulls game is a terrible example of the viability of this strategy. Chicago scored 21 points in the first quarter. That's an 84-point pace. That's a perfectly acceptable defensive result. The Spurs lost because they only scored 32 first-half points. In the Washington game, Kawhi's man went off on him too (this is ignoring that Kawhi guarded Beal and was burned just like everyone else). In the Magic game, the Spurs held Fournier to seven first-half points, and the writer is acting like they were being torched

True in a way but it was a prime example of team completely eliminating Kawhi from the equation by completely ignoring whoever he's guarding.

Fournier did kinda torch us though, he scored those 7 quickly and was making plays off the dribble.

If people want to know why Kawhi's defense has taken a hit, they need to look at his offense. Right now, if he's not hitting at an unsustainable clip or getting a friendly whistle, the team can't really win. He takes so many shots, and he takes so many poor shots that the team can't set up their defense. Kawhi's shooting career lows inside 10 feet. If you keep burping up long-twos and crying to the refs, you're going to keep putting everyone else in bad positions. When he's off the court, the team takes better shots, and they get back. They don't have three players inside the paint once the other team starts running out.

I just flat out disagree with both those statements. His shot selection for the most part is pretty damn good (he does force up some bad ones at time but he's still adjusting to his new role) and he's always the first or one of the first guys back. His shooting numbers are down from last year but you can't expect him to keep those up with his expanded role.

Right now, the Spurs are so dependent on Kawhi hitting long-twos on both ends that it's almost sickening. Maybe it's necessary given the lack of back-court play. But they're playing with fire, and LMA and Gasol being jump-shooters themselves is only tossing gas on it

But he hits those long two at a pretty damn good rate and he is the best pick and roll scorer in the league. I sorta agree that we rely on his iso scoring a little too much but he's the only reliable scorer we have. That Kawhi LMA pick and roll is the best offensive option our starting unit has.

[Chinook]

He did touch on it and his idea passes the eye test. Kawhi is over helping at times to try and over compensate for our poor interior defense which results in his man being left wide open.

The issue is that poor interior defense doesn't show itself when Kawhi's not in the game. Green has overhelped his whole career, and his defensive numbers are still fantastic because he's able to get there enough and because jumping at players is actually a great way to stop the three despite everyone and their mothers hating how it looks.

True in a way but it was a prime example of team completely eliminating Kawhi from the equation by completely ignoring whoever he's guarding.

Yes, but that's not a bad thing. If every game were like that, Kawhi would have great defensive numbers.

Fournier did kinda torch us though, he scored those 7 quickly and was making plays off the dribble.

But that's just what first options do. It wasn't like Gordon then went off for a million points.

I just flat out disagree with both those statements. His shot selection for the most part is pretty damn good (he does force up some bad ones at time but he's still adjusting to his new role) and he's always the first or one of the first guys back. His shooting numbers are down from last year but you can't expect him to keep those up with his expanded role.

His selection is good only because he's so good at making them. But when he doesn't the reason why those shots are normally terrible rear their heads. And he hasn't been getting to the rim much at all this year, and he's taking a lot fewer assisted threes. I think if it were a non-Spur shooting those shots, many of the fans defending it would be saying what I'm saying. Not particularly saying that toward you, though.

But he hits those long two at a pretty damn good rate and he is the best pick and roll scorer in the league.

But even shooting 50 percent on long-twos is inefficient. Those are shots that are nice to have but not nice to have to use. And the PnR scoring is almost completely dependent on the long-twos, which is the shot the PnR defense wants to give up.

I sorta agree that we rely on his iso scoring a little too much but he's the only reliable scorer we have. That Kawhi LMA pick and roll is the best offensive option our starting unit has.

I agree they don't have reliable iso scoring outside Kawhi. But they don't even try to have team scoring right now. It's just isos and passes out of isos.

[Nolan]

The issue is that poor interior defense doesn't show itself when Kawhi's not in the game. Green has overhelped his whole career, and his defensive numbers are still fantastic because he's able to get there enough and because jumping at players is actually a great way to stop the three despite everyone and their mothers hating how it looks.

That has more to do with Pau that it does with Kawhi though, Pau plays the majority of his minutes along side Kawhi hence the issues in the paint when both of them are in the game. True about Green, but the man he's helping off of usually isn't 10 feet away from the play.

Yes, but that's not a bad thing. If every game were like that, Kawhi would have great defensive numbers.

I'll admit that those numbers are slightly troubling but when you consider the situations he's been put into they do make a bit sense. He's been forced to over help often which leads to open shots. It's not like Kawhi's been failing the eye test on the defensive end, he's still an elite one on one defender, he's still kills ball movement and he stills does all the other amazing things that he's done in the past.

But that's just what first options do. It wasn't like Gordon then went off for a million points.

He didn't go off but he was 1-5 when Kawhi was guarding him and then went 4-4 after Kawhi switched off him...

His selection is good only because he's so good at making them. But when he doesn't the reason why those shots are normally terrible rear their heads. And he hasn't been getting to the rim much at all this year, and he's taking a lot fewer assisted threes. I think if it were a non-Spur shooting those shots, many of the fans defending it would be saying what I'm saying. Not particularly saying that toward you, though.

How are they bad shots if he's good at making them?

He's been doing a pretty good job of getting close to the rim as well he's been getting to line way more this year, 6.8 attempts compared to 4.6 last year.

And as for the fewer assisted 3's the ball's been in his hands way more this year, he's the one kicking it and creating the shots so it only makes sense that fewer of his makes are assisted.

But even shooting 50 percent on long-twos is inefficient. Those are shots that are nice to have but not nice to have to use. And the PnR scoring is almost completely dependent on the long-twos, which is the shot the PnR defense wants to give up.

He's shooting 53% on those long two's which is actually pretty damn good and it's not like he shoots them every chance he gets either.

I agree they don't have reliable iso scoring outside Kawhi. But they don't even try to have team scoring right now. It's just isos and passes out of isos.

We've tried it though over and over it really hasn't worked. Tony can't get to the rim like he used too, Green never could and Pau and LMA are too slow for us to create easy scores on the break. Our options for creating offense are very limited with our current starting 5; we either feed Kawhi or feed the post that's about all that unit is capable of.

[-Sammy-]

The Celtics used this approach a fair bit last night.

[Nolan]

The Celtics used this approach a fair bit last night.

I think we did a pretty decent job countering it. That extra ball pressure we threw at them forced them to the move the ball to spots they wanted to avoid and I did like the way we mixed up our matchups.

[co_laper]

Does anyone else feel like we're switching a whole lot more this year especially with the starting unit? I don't follow the numbers, but I feel like these switches creates mismatches that's not to our advantage and miscommunication that leads to layups. What has become so painfully obvious from not having Timmy is the amount of defensive breakdowns and opponents having open layups at the rim. From my eyetest, our problems defensively is on LMA and Pau. Not on Kawhi or Danny.

[Nolan]

Does anyone else feel like we're switching a whole lot more this year especially with the starting unit? I don't follow the numbers, but I feel like these switches creates mismatches that's not to our advantage and miscommunication that leads to layups. What has become so painfully obvious from not having Timmy is the amount of defensive breakdowns and opponents having open layups at the rim. From my eyetest, our problems defensively is on LMA and Pau. Not on Kawhi or Danny.

I feel like your right. We are switching a lot more.

Also nice to have you back man!!

[Nolan]

http://www.poundingtherock.com/2016/12/17/13987864/kawhi-leonard-defense

^
Interesting take on the Kawhisland problem with a few decent solutions. I don't think any of those ideas will work for 48 minutes but they sound like decent ways to get Kawhi involved and to shake things up a bit.