Official Trade Thread - Part XXXI

[Dark Faze]

didnt think nenes rebounding dropping even further was even possible

I'd take Nene at less than $3 million year over Jason Smith any day.

I suppose its a positive that Ernie didn't give a long term deal for contract year sessions, who went right back to career lows again the second he got paid

though you never know if he would have played well for us I guess

[Dark Faze]

To continue on my counter to this point, looks like the players were already ahead of the game for trying to mitigate salary cap concerns:

Read on Twitter

one thing I'm confused about though nate...and you probably know better than I, is that the language is a bit weird. Teams are already able to go over the cap to keep players that they have bird rights too--so what exactly is this doing?

I believe the issue there is that, under the current CBA extensions of existing contracts aren't the same as resigning a player when his contract is up.

Under the current CBA, we are not allowed to extend John Wall's contract right now because we don't have enough projected cap room in 2019. But when Wall hits free agency, we can use Bird Rights to exceed the cap and sign him to a max offer. It looks like this tweak to the CBA allows teams to extend a star player prior to him getting to free agency. Basically, it allows you to use Bird Rights on an extension.

all nba requirements? that stuff has to end

[queridiculo]

Would be interesting to see when this CBA change takes effect, it might force a few teams to make some tough decisions before they really want to if it goes into effect immediately.

Assume for example Griffin refuses to extend his deal, or the the Clippers are unwilling to meet his demands would either party really be confident that a deal between them will get done in the offseason?

Given the age of the Clippers roster and some of the tough decisions they have to make, might they perhaps be interested in a Griffin/Beal swap?

[Wizardspride]

Would be interesting to see when this CBA change takes effect, it might force a few teams to make some tough decisions before they really want to if it goes into effect immediately.

Assume for example Griffin refuses to extend his deal, or the the Clippers are unwilling to meet his demands would either party really be confident that a deal between them will get done in the offseason?

[b]Given the age of the Clippers roster and some of the tough decisions they have to make, might they perhaps be interested in a Griffin/Beal swap?

Believe it or not, I wouldn't trade Bradley for Blake.

I'm probably in the minority, but when you take away the monster dunks/excitement I'm not convinced that Blake is significantly better than Bradley.

At least in the long run.

[montestewart]

Would be interesting to see when this CBA change takes effect, it might force a few teams to make some tough decisions before they really want to if it goes into effect immediately.

Assume for example Griffin refuses to extend his deal, or the the Clippers are unwilling to meet his demands would either party really be confident that a deal between them will get done in the offseason?

[b]Given the age of the Clippers roster and some of the tough decisions they have to make, might they perhaps be interested in a Griffin/Beal swap?

Believe it or not, I wouldn't trade Bradley for Blake.

I'm probably in the minority, but when you take away the monster dunks/excitement I'm not convinced that Blake is significantly better than Bradley.

At least in the long run.

If Beal can sustain what he's shown since he came back from his 3 game break, that might be true in the long run, especially because Griffin's game seems like one that could (could) fall off pretty rapidly if he loses a step from his dynamic game. I'm not calling it yet.

[tontoz]

Rumors going around about a Sac trade. Cousins got a DNP last night.

[nate33]

To continue on my counter to this point, looks like the players were already ahead of the game for trying to mitigate salary cap concerns:

Read on Twitter

one thing I'm confused about though nate...and you probably know better than I, is that the language is a bit weird. Teams are already able to go over the cap to keep players that they have bird rights too--so what exactly is this doing?

I believe the issue there is that, under the current CBA extensions of existing contracts aren't the same as resigning a player when his contract is up.

Under the current CBA, we are not allowed to extend John Wall's contract right now because we don't have enough projected cap room in 2019. But when Wall hits free agency, we can use Bird Rights to exceed the cap and sign him to a max offer. It looks like this tweak to the CBA allows teams to extend a star player prior to him getting to free agency. Basically, it allows you to use Bird Rights on an extension.

all nba requirements? that stuff has to end

It makes sense to me. The issue is that teams don't want to lose legit superstars, and this is one more advantage that a retaining team has with their free agent. But at the same time, teams don't want to be put into position of "insulting" second-tier stars by not signing them to a lucrative extension really early. Rather than being forced to pay Otto a max extension now, we can tell Otto that we're sorry but the CBA won't allow that; we're going to have to wait until the offseason (at which point we can match what will hopefully be a smaller-than-max contract offer from someone else).

[nate33]

Would be interesting to see when this CBA change takes effect, it might force a few teams to make some tough decisions before they really want to if it goes into effect immediately.

Assume for example Griffin refuses to extend his deal, or the the Clippers are unwilling to meet his demands would either party really be confident that a deal between them will get done in the offseason?

[b]Given the age of the Clippers roster and some of the tough decisions they have to make, might they perhaps be interested in a Griffin/Beal swap?

Believe it or not, I wouldn't trade Bradley for Blake.

I'm probably in the minority, but when you take away the monster dunks/excitement I'm not convinced that Blake is significantly better than Bradley.

At least in the long run.

I'm finding myself trending in this direction too. A month ago, I would have traded Beal for little more than a ham sandwich because of his awful contract and lackluster performance history. But he really seems to be a different player now. The guy is a legit scorer, and furthermore, he's the type of scorer who can do it without the basketball in his hands all the time, which allows him to play alongside another superstar scorer should we ever find one. And at age 23 with a strong work ethic, there's every reason to believe that he hasn't yet reached his ceiling.

My final reservation with Beal is his durability. Were most of his early injuries due to growth plate issues, that will ultimately resolve themselves? If so, then he looks like a true building block. He'll never be a first tier superstar like a James Harden or Dwyane Wade, but he might pan out to be a top 20-30 player in the league - a Ray Allen/Mitch Richmond level of talent.

[Meliorus]

Hearing a lot of buzz on here about Nerlens Noel, which I'm worried about given his injury history.

Couple other young, athletic centers we should consider: Dwight Powell, John Henson, Willie Cauley-Stein

The "Wall Effect" could easily turn all of them into better players than Gortat.

Our 1st rounder could get us any one of those + wing depth. Then, we could deal Gortat for more depth.

We can also wait until the draft to get younger in the front-court. Looks like there are a ton of power forwards available in the range we're drafting in (11-17).

[Wizardspride]

Would be interesting to see when this CBA change takes effect, it might force a few teams to make some tough decisions before they really want to if it goes into effect immediately.

Assume for example Griffin refuses to extend his deal, or the the Clippers are unwilling to meet his demands would either party really be confident that a deal between them will get done in the offseason?

[b]Given the age of the Clippers roster and some of the tough decisions they have to make, might they perhaps be interested in a Griffin/Beal swap?

Believe it or not, I wouldn't trade Bradley for Blake.

I'm probably in the minority, but when you take away the monster dunks/excitement I'm not convinced that Blake is significantly better than Bradley.

At least in the long run.

I'm finding myself trending in this direction too. A month ago, I would have traded Beal for little more than a ham sandwich because of his awful contract and lackluster performance history. But he really seems to be a different player now. The guy is a legit scorer, and furthermore, he's the type of scorer who can do it without the basketball in his hands all the time, which allows him to play alongside another superstar scorer should we ever find one. And at age 23 with a strong work ethic, there's every reason to believe that he hasn't yet reached his ceiling.

My final reservation with Beal is his durability. Were most of his early injuries due to growth plate issues, that will ultimately resolve themselves? If so, then he looks like a true building block. He'll never be a first tier superstar like a James Harden or Dwyane Wade, but he might pan out to be a top 20-30 player in the league - a Ray Allen/Mitch Richmond level of talent.

Random fact: In the 14 games since Beal has returned from injury he's averaging 25ppg.

[queridiculo]

Beal has had a remarkable run since coming back from injury, I do wonder about roster balance though.

There doesn't appear to be any clear path to address the power forward situation anytime soon, and with Porter possibly demanding the max and Oubre's development trending in a positive direction does it make sense to have this much salary tied up on the wings?

The answer to that could possibly be Porter himself. Perhaps the Wizards long game is for Porter to play power forward and Oubre eventually claiming the SF spot in the rotation.

[nate33]

Beal has had a remarkable run since coming back from injury, I do wonder about roster balance though.

There doesn't appear to be any clear path to address the power forward situation anytime soon, and with Porter possibly demanding the max and Oubre's development trending in a positive direction does it make sense to have this much salary tied up on the wings?

The answer to that could possibly be Porter himself. Perhaps the Wizards long game is for Porter to play power forward and Oubre eventually claiming the SF spot in the rotation.

Yes. That is the answer. There are 96 minutes available at the SF and PF spots. No reason why Oubre can't get 34 or so at SF, with Porter getting the remaining 14 minutes at SF plus another 20 or so at PF. If Morris ever gets his head out of his ass, he'd be fine as a 3rd big claiming the other 28 minutes at PF. (To be fair, the possibility exists that Morris' lackluster play has been due to injury, so I should hold back on the hate a little until he's healthy.)

[NatP4]

Beal has had a remarkable run since coming back from injury, I do wonder about roster balance though.

There doesn't appear to be any clear path to address the power forward situation anytime soon, and with Porter possibly demanding the max and Oubre's development trending in a positive direction does it make sense to have this much salary tied up on the wings?

The answer to that could possibly be Porter himself. Perhaps the Wizards long game is for Porter to play power forward and Oubre eventually claiming the SF spot in the rotation.

Yes. That is the answer. There are 96 minutes available at the SF and PF spots. No reason why Oubre can't get 34 or so at SF, with Porter getting the remaining 14 minutes at SF plus another 20 or so at PF. If Morris ever gets his head out of his ass, he'd be fine as a 3rd big claiming the other 28 minutes at PF. (To be fair, the possibility exists that Morris' lackluster play has been due to injury, so I should hold back on the hate a little until he's healthy.)

And say Mahinmi comes back as the backup center, and Sato becomes that impact backup guard, does a backup wing player that can play the 2&3 become the priority? What are the chances the wizards can steal Norman Powell? Or who else would be an option?

[nate33]

Sato isn't going to be an "impact" backup guard anytime soon. And we're still extremely thin and susceptible to injury. Counting Mahinmi, and assuming Morris' bad play is temporary, we have 7 players who are above replacement level. Being generous, you can count Jason Smith as another, but I'd hesitate to do so. He's had a couple of decent games, but it may have simply been a hot streak. At best, he's a 10-12th man to use for spot duty, not a 20 mpg backup.

[NatP4]

Sato isn't going to be an "impact" backup guard anytime soon. And we're still extremely thin and susceptible to injury. Counting Mahinmi, and assuming Morris' bad play is temporary, we have 7 players who are above replacement level. Being generous, you can count Jason Smith as another, but I'd hesitate to do so. He's had a couple of decent games, but it may have simply been a hot streak. At best, he's a 10-12th man to use for spot duty, not a 20 mpg backup.

I'm far more optimistic about Satoransky. In the Fiba tournaments he would carry the Czech teams to be competitive against NBA talent almost every game. But the key was his role of handling the ball, was never used as an off ball guard.

They didn't have a Marcus Thornton running pick and rolls on team Czech lol

[pcbothwel]

Sato isn't going to be an "impact" backup guard anytime soon. And we're still extremely thin and susceptible to injury. Counting Mahinmi, and assuming Morris' bad play is temporary, we have 7 players who are above replacement level. Being generous, you can count Jason Smith as another, but I'd hesitate to do so. He's had a couple of decent games, but it may have simply been a hot streak. At best, he's a 10-12th man to use for spot duty, not a 20 mpg backup.

Nate, A lot of people thought Oubre was either a bust, or at least another year a way from being a solid 20+ MPG player. But now that narrative has completely changed. Im not saying that Sato WILL be an impact player, but when you take into account his age and success in Europe, its not hard to see how he could become a solid contributer. I mentioned this the other week

Not worried about Sato, especially for 3M. He shot about 76% from the FT line in Europe and 65% so far here. No reason he cant bump that up along with his abysmal 12% shooting on 3's.

Looking at other Euro players who came over in the there early to mid 20's, I see no reason Sato cant shoot 33-35%

Spoiler:

Bogdanovic: His last 3 year in Europe (Ages 22-24) He shot 234 3's (about 4 per game) and made them at a 36.5% rate. His 3 years in the NBA he shot 694 3's ( about 4.5 per game) and made them at a 36.5% rate. No drop

Prigioni: His last 5 years in Europe (Ages 30-34) He shot 932 3's (just under 4 per game) and made them at a 35.3% rate. His 4 years in the NBA he shot 535 3's (about 2 per game) and made them at a 38% rate. Increase

Mirotic: His last 3 year in Europe (Ages 20-22) He shot 461 3's (about 2.75 per game) and made them at a 39.7% rate. His 3 years in the NBA he shot 752 3's (4.5 per game) and made them at a 34.8% rate. About a 12% drop in efficiency.

I would say Bogdanovic is the most relevant to Sato with size and age, but even if we use the Mirotic drop as a forecast (12%) then Tomas would go from shooting 38% in Europe to 33.5% in the NBA.

[nate33]

Sato isn't going to be an "impact" backup guard anytime soon. And we're still extremely thin and susceptible to injury. Counting Mahinmi, and assuming Morris' bad play is temporary, we have 7 players who are above replacement level. Being generous, you can count Jason Smith as another, but I'd hesitate to do so. He's had a couple of decent games, but it may have simply been a hot streak. At best, he's a 10-12th man to use for spot duty, not a 20 mpg backup.

Nate, A lot of people thought Oubre was either a bust, or at least another year a way from being a solid 20+ MPG player. But now that narrative has completely changed. Im not saying that Sato WILL be an impact player, but when you take into account his age and success in Europe, its not hard to see how he could become a solid contributer. I mentioned this the other week

Not worried about Sato, especially for 3M. He shot about 76% from the FT line in Europe and 65% so far here. No reason he cant bump that up along with his abysmal 12% shooting on 3's.

Looking at other Euro players who came over in the there early to mid 20's, I see no reason Sato cant shoot 33-35%

Spoiler:

Bogdanovic: His last 3 year in Europe (Ages 22-24) He shot 234 3's (about 4 per game) and made them at a 36.5% rate. His 3 years in the NBA he shot 694 3's ( about 4.5 per game) and made them at a 36.5% rate. No drop

Prigioni: His last 5 years in Europe (Ages 30-34) He shot 932 3's (just under 4 per game) and made them at a 35.3% rate. His 4 years in the NBA he shot 535 3's (about 2 per game) and made them at a 38% rate. Increase

Mirotic: His last 3 year in Europe (Ages 20-22) He shot 461 3's (about 2.75 per game) and made them at a 39.7% rate. His 3 years in the NBA he shot 752 3's (4.5 per game) and made them at a 34.8% rate. About a 12% drop in efficiency.

I would say Bogdanovic is the most relevant to Sato with size and age, but even if we use the Mirotic drop as a forecast (12%) then Tomas would go from shooting 38% in Europe to 33.5% in the NBA.

I think it's going to take a while. He has to adjust to the speed of the game, and, more importantly, he has to counter the scouting report against him. Right now, teams are backing off him, going under the screens, and daring him to shoot. Once they started doing that, his production plummeted to zero.

[Ruzious]

Sato could stand to take lessons from Oubre, of all people. Oubre might have the quickest release on the team re 3 point shooting - Sato among the slowest.

[payitforward]

Sato isn't going to be an "impact" backup guard anytime soon. And we're still extremely thin and susceptible to injury. Counting Mahinmi, and assuming Morris' bad play is temporary, we have 7 players who are above replacement level. Being generous, you can count Jason Smith as another, but I'd hesitate to do so. He's had a couple of decent games, but it may have simply been a hot streak. At best, he's a 10-12th man to use for spot duty, not a 20 mpg backup.

Actually, we have 5 players whose season so far has been above average NBA productivity at their positions -- i.e. far better than "replacement level" -- Wall, Beal, Porter, Gortat & Oubre. And we can assume Mahinmi would be on that list were he playing. So make it 6.

But not Smith. Jason Smith came into the league in '07, was out his 2d year (injury?), and in the 9 seasons he's played has never ever had anything approaching even a reasonably acceptable one for a backup.

Yet, even though Smith, Nicholson & Burke are among the worst players in the league, they are being given too much blame for our bad season. They've only played 650 minutes. Morris, Thornton & Satoransky have been far more costly, not because they've been as bad as the other 3, but because they've been plenty bad and have combined for almost 1500 minutes.

In other words, why would we assume Morris' bad play is temporary. For one thing, his whole season so far has been awful. For another, he's never had anything approaching a "good" season -- i.e. one in which he was as productive as the average NBA guy at the 4 (I don't mean the average starter; I mean counting all players at the position).

Morris is an awful NBA player -- just as a hint how bad he really is, he's averaging a pathetic 7 rebounds per 40 minutes as a PF, and his TS% is in the bottom 25% of all 4s in the league. That combination alone puts him below replacement level.

For that reason alone, it's no surprise we're better w/ OP & KO on the floor. Nor does that mean we should be playing Otto at the 4. In fact, as we've done that lately his productivity has gone down. Otto Porter is a terrific 3. Don't play him at the 4; instead find a good replacement for Morris at that spot.

[payitforward]

Nate, A lot of people thought Oubre was either a bust, or at least another year a way from being a solid 20+ MPG player. But now that narrative has completely changed. Im not saying that Sato WILL be an impact player, but when you take into account his age and success in Europe, its not hard to see how he could become a solid contributer.

BS, sorry. I don't remember even one person who thought Oubre was "a bust."

Then again, you could have used Porter instead of Oubre as your example, as there were a lot of people here who thought he was a bust during his 2d season.

But, what anyone thought about Oubre or Porter has absolutely nothing to do with Satoransky's success in the NBA. For that matter, neither does his history in Europe. He either will succeed or he won't. Right now we don't have enough info to predict. His first 300 minutes don't hold the answer.