Clutch Time 4th Quarter Scoring

[90sgoat]

http://www.nbaminer.com/clutch-time-stats/

Feel free to compare others.

Clutch Time: During the 4th quarter or overtime, with less than five minutes remaining, and neither team ahead by more than five points

Lebron James
2016: 7-21
2015:10-35
2014: 6-11
2013: 11-25
2012: 10-27

FG%: 0,369

Michael Jordan
1997: 22-50
1996: 20-39

FG%: 0,472

Kobe Bryant

2012: 7-23
2011: 3-12
2010: 13-33
2009: 14-34
2008: 15-31

FG%: 0,391

Dirk Nowitsky (2013 missing)

2014: 1-9
2012: 3-11
2011:15-28
2010:1-4
2009: 3-10

FG% 0,371

Kevin Durant (2015 missing):

2016: 4-20
2014: 17-33
2013: 9-24
2012: 14-28
2011: 12-27

FG%: 0,420

Dwayne Wade (2015 missing)

2016: 15-29
2014: 6-9
2013: 7-15
2012: 11-27
2011: 11-27

FG%: 0,467

It's always nice when stats allow you to back up your eye test.

Keep trying yourself with the above link.

What is remarkable is of course Michael Jordan's absolutely insane clutch scoring ability. Lebron is not even close.

What is also worth noticing is that unlike others I compared, Lebron is consistantly bad, the others have at least one season of being a top notch finisher, but Lebron is consistently a poor finisher.

[Heej]

Obvious agenda is obvious. Obvious cherrypick is obvious. Move it along folks, nothing to see here. We've seen what a 90sgoat thread turns into.

[Dr Spaceman]

So in the three year stretch between 08-10, Kobe Bryant managed to shoot 50%, 40% and then 30% on these shots in consecutive seasons. Jordan himself sees a difference of almost 10% between seasons.

With your extensive statistical background, I'm quite surprised you're not familiar with the concept of randomness.

[bondom34]

lol if you find Lebron's 3 years prior to those posted.

[Fadeaway_J]

[packforfreedom]

selecitve stat selection is selective

[MisterHibachi]

Whatyearisit.gif

[Bad Gatorade]

Hmm, a LeBron agenda post? I'll play.

Here are my points to consider -

1. You're using playoff numbers, which are much smaller sample sizes than regular season sample sizes. A team plays far fewer close games in the playoffs than in the regular season, even if they make it to the finals. FWIW, LeBron has played 150 "clutch" regular season games in the past 5 years, equivalent to 30 "clutch" games a year. That's 23 more games (i.e. an entire finals-inclusive postseason) than your stats would indicate.

2. Playoffs are not only small sample sizes, but also heavily prone to context bias. It fails to account for opponent faced and quality of teammates - do you really think LeBron is going to have incredible clutch shooting numbers in 2014-15, when he was forced to do everything for those Cavs? Not only is his volume of shots increasing, but his team was also absolutely crippled and hapless without his presence against the league-leading defence of the Warriors, so that's obviously going to shatter his averages.

3. You're not accounting for free throws and 3 pointers at all. Akin to how we incorporate them via TS% in regular season analysis, the same should be done in clutch time. Aside from 2015-16, he had at a FTr of at least .500 from 2011-12 until 2014-15. His TS% over the past 5 years is 0.395, 0.443, 0.718, 0.602, 0.566. Remove 2014-15 (because that year is utterly unfair given the context) and his TS% is at 0.564 in the other 4 seasons. Against playoff teams (who traditionally have better defence than non-playoff teams) that's an excellent number.

4. Clutch play spans more than just "scoring in close games." James is an excellent clutch playmaker and defender, and heck, even a great rebounder (around 10 rebounds per game in regular season clutch stats the past 5 years). His approximated GmSc, which is a rough accumulation of box score stats, is 26.1 in regular season clutch games (643 minutes). The Brow has 28.7 (237 minutes) and Houston James Harden has 26.3 (622 minutes). Aside from that, LeBron beats everybody else. Clutch scoring is very important when we're talking about clutch statistics, but LeBron's scoring is already quite good in the clutch - but the rest of his game is excellent.

5. Looking at Engelmann's Win Probability, LeBron has a career score of 25.7, which trumps absolutely anybody in the post-2000 time frame and it's not even close. LeBron is arguably even better in clutch time than normal time, and I'd fully believe it, given his tendency to coast during the regular season. In fact, if you regress Win Probability against RAPM, the top 10 are -

Player / RAPM / WinProb / Change
LeBron James / 9.25 / 10.65 / 1.4
Kevin Garnett / 9.11 / 8.42 / -0.69
Tim Duncan / 7.27 / 8.19 / 0.92
Dirk Nowitzki / 6.85 / 8.14 / 1.29
Chris Paul / 7.55 / 7.95 / 0.4
Manu Ginobili / 6.82 / 7.52 / 0.7
Shaquille O'Neal / 5.3 / 6.76 / 1.46
Steve Nash / 6.36 / 6.57 / 0.21
Draymond Green / 5.95 / 6.53 / 0.58
Rasheed Wallace / 5.51 / 6.48 / 0.97

So, LeBron isn't half bad in the clutch the way you're portraying him to be, right?

In closing, if you need the "eye test" to show you what a clutch performance looks like, I'd like to refer you to this -

Watch on YouTube

[homecourtloss]

Hmm, a LeBron agenda post? I'll play.

Here are my points to consider -

1. You're using playoff numbers, which are much smaller sample sizes than regular season sample sizes. A team plays far fewer close games in the playoffs than in the regular season, even if they make it to the finals. FWIW, LeBron has played 150 "clutch" regular season games in the past 5 years, equivalent to 30 "clutch" games a year. That's 23 more games (i.e. an entire finals-inclusive postseason) than your stats would indicate.

2. Playoffs are not only small sample sizes, but also heavily prone to context bias. It fails to account for opponent faced and quality of teammates - do you really think LeBron is going to have incredible clutch shooting numbers in 2014-15, when he was forced to do everything for those Cavs? Not only is his volume of shots increasing, but his team was also absolutely crippled and hapless without his presence against the league-leading defence of the Warriors, so that's obviously going to shatter his averages.

3. You're not accounting for free throws and 3 pointers at all. Akin to how we incorporate them via TS% in regular season analysis, the same should be done in clutch time. Aside from 2015-16, he had at a FTr of at least .500 from 2011-12 until 2014-15. His TS% over the past 5 years is 0.395, 0.443, 0.718, 0.602, 0.566. Remove 2014-15 (because that year is utterly unfair given the context) and his TS% is at 0.564 in the other 4 seasons. Against playoff teams (who traditionally have better defence than non-playoff teams) that's an excellent number.

4. Clutch play spans more than just "scoring in close games." James is an excellent clutch playmaker and defender, and heck, even a great rebounder (around 10 rebounds per game in regular season clutch stats the past 5 years). His approximated GmSc, which is a rough accumulation of box score stats, is 26.1 in regular season clutch games (643 minutes). The Brow has 28.7 (237 minutes) and Houston James Harden has 26.3 (622 minutes). Aside from that, LeBron beats everybody else. Clutch scoring is very important when we're talking about clutch statistics, but LeBron's scoring is already quite good in the clutch - but the rest of his game is excellent.

5. Looking at Engelmann's Win Probability, LeBron has a career score of 25.7, which trumps absolutely anybody in the post-2000 time frame and it's not even close. LeBron is arguably even better in clutch time than normal time, and I'd fully believe it, given his tendency to coast during the regular season. In fact, if you regress Win Probability against RAPM, the top 10 are -

Player / RAPM / WinProb / Change
LeBron James / 9.25 / 10.65 / 1.4
Kevin Garnett / 9.11 / 8.42 / -0.69
Tim Duncan / 7.27 / 8.19 / 0.92
Dirk Nowitzki / 6.85 / 8.14 / 1.29
Chris Paul / 7.55 / 7.95 / 0.4
Manu Ginobili / 6.82 / 7.52 / 0.7
Shaquille O'Neal / 5.3 / 6.76 / 1.46
Steve Nash / 6.36 / 6.57 / 0.21
Draymond Green / 5.95 / 6.53 / 0.58
Rasheed Wallace / 5.51 / 6.48 / 0.97

So, LeBron isn't half bad in the clutch the way you're portraying him to be, right?

In closing, if you need the "eye test" to show you what a clutch performance looks like, I'd like to refer you to this -

Watch on YouTube

What's stunning is that you have the variance of posting quality between Bad Gatorade and 90sgoat on the same thread.

[Joao Saraiva]

90s goat it was a nice try. Keep on trying man...

What a slap in the face with Bad Gatorade's post.

Don't worry, if you make 2023139210 threads trying to bring down LeBron at least in one you might have some type of valid point. Keep looking.

[Fadeaway_J]

90s goat it was a nice try. Keep on trying man...

What a slap in the face with Bad Gatorade's post.

Don't worry, if you make 2023139210 threads trying to bring down LeBron at least in one you might have some type of valid point. Keep looking.

No it wasn't a good try. His more recent attempts at least forced you to navigate through a lot of off-ball decoy action to get to the main play. In this one it looks like he's just given up all pretence of subtlety and decided to run a straight iso.

[eminence]

.

A) Good post, again.

B) Any chance you have Engleman's win probability stuff laying around somewhere and would be able to pass it on?

[90sgoat]

Lol BadGatorade, all I heard from you was ignoring stats.

[TheOUTLAW]

Wow, don't know how LeBron somehow got so bad in the clutch. I suspect that these stats are BS accumulated by a notorious LeBron hater.

[Ballerhogger]

There's better ways to attack Lebron than in the clutch .Skip Bayless! Lol

[juice4080]

Hmm, a LeBron agenda post? I'll play.

Here are my points to consider -

1. You're using playoff numbers, which are much smaller sample sizes than regular season sample sizes. A team plays far fewer close games in the playoffs than in the regular season, even if they make it to the finals. FWIW, LeBron has played 150 "clutch" regular season games in the past 5 years, equivalent to 30 "clutch" games a year. That's 23 more games (i.e. an entire finals-inclusive postseason) than your stats would indicate.

There's no such thing as a clutch regular season game.....maybe if you fight for a playoff spot but let's face it Lebron never really had to throughout his career.. i don't care that he made a game winner in sacramento in march that's not clutch scoring to me...

2. Playoffs are not only small sample sizes, but also heavily prone to context bias. It fails to account for opponent faced and quality of teammates - do you really think LeBron is going to have incredible clutch shooting numbers in 2014-15, when he was forced to do everything for those Cavs? Not only is his volume of shots increasing, but his team was also absolutely crippled and hapless without his presence against the league-leading defence of the Warriors, so that's obviously going to shatter his averages.

Sounds like you're conceding he's not the best of clutch scorer already...otherwise you wouldn't use this sorry excuse as to why his numbers aren't all that

3. You're not accounting for free throws and 3 pointers at all. Akin to how we incorporate them via TS% in regular season analysis, the same should be done in clutch time. Aside from 2015-16, he had at a FTr of at least .500 from 2011-12 until 2014-15. His TS% over the past 5 years is 0.395, 0.443, 0.718, 0.602, 0.566. Remove 2014-15 (because that year is utterly unfair given the context) and his TS% is at 0.564 in the other 4 seasons. Against playoff teams (who traditionally have better defence than non-playoff teams) that's an excellent number.

Good point...i agree wholeheartedly we should look a TS% but that would penalize him as he's not the best foul shooter....and explain me how does it make sense to remove 2014-2015? Should we remove the game winner he had against chicago too?

4. Clutch play spans more than just "scoring in close games." James is an excellent clutch playmaker and defender, and heck, even a great rebounder (around 10 rebounds per game in regular season clutch stats the past 5 years). His approximated GmSc, which is a rough accumulation of box score stats, is 26.1 in regular season clutch games (643 minutes). The Brow has 28.7 (237 minutes) and Houston James Harden has 26.3 (622 minutes). Aside from that, LeBron beats everybody else. Clutch scoring is very important when we're talking about clutch statistics, but LeBron's scoring is already quite good in the clutch - but the rest of his game is excellent.

This isn't up for debate and anyone who's arguing to the contrary is a fool.. he's a formidable well rounded player who makes the right decision almost everytime

Look....nobody said he wasn't a clutch player he's at the very least a neutral (which is all you can ask for).......the point being made is that he's not an optimal choice for late game isolation scoring situation....Is it so hard to recognize? like i said he's not perfect and that's one of his biggest flaw as a player that only the most blinded stans fail to acknowledge

[Jetzger]

Kendrick Perkins

2014: 2-2
2012: 3-5
2011: 2-3
2010: 1-2
2009: 6-8

Overall clutch FG%: 70%


Kendrick Perkins: Clutch GAWD

[90sgoat]

Lol just lol at saying we shouldn't use 2015-2015 because "Lebron had to do it all".

This is the final stats of Bulls in 98 playoffs:

Pip: .410/.231 - 15ppg
Kukoc: .500 - 15ppg
Ron Harper: .364 - 5ppg
Longley: .444 - 5ppg

Should we not use MJs ridicolous clutch scoring in that series?

[Homer38]

Lol just lol at saying we shouldn't use 2015-2015 because "Lebron had to do it all".

This is the final stats of Bulls in 98 playoffs:

Pip: .410/.231 - 15ppg
Kukoc: .500 - 15ppg
Ron Harper: .364 - 5ppg
Longley: .444 - 5ppg

Should we not use MJs ridicolous clutch scoring in that series?

Jordan has never had his 2 best teammates being injured as it was the case with Lebron in 2015.

Also against the pacers in 2013, after LeBron, the 3 best players in this series were 3 players of the pacers, but LeBron has still win the series.

Big difference between being OUT than having teammates not played well

[Jedi32]

Not sure why folks call agenda. it looks like jordan/wade/and Durant are tops(didn't open link). So because lebron isn't painted in the best light then there must be an agenda? No stat is perfect and unless he made up the numbers I'm still not seeing what he's doing wrong.