Lonzo Ball

[bigboi]

Ball's stock is going to drop off a cliff towards the end of the season. Dude's hype is built around being a "winner" and passing ability, which is overrated in itself. How in the world are you going to have a PG that is essentially a spot up 3 pt shooter in the half court? And dudes have the nerve to call him the number 1 pick, the Kidd comparisons need to stop

[SelfishPlayer]

Ball's stock is going to drop off a cliff towards the end of the season. Dude's hype is built around being a "winner" and passing ability, which is overrated in itself. How in the world are you going to have a PG that is essentially a spot up 3 pt shooter in the half court? And dudes have the nerve to call him the number 1 pick, the Kidd comparisons need to stop

I was with you 120% until I seen him drive to the basket in the halfcourt set recently. He may ultimately be the sort of perimeter player that people highly desire, a guy that's all 3's and layups. In the NBA as a scorer he may be something like a Devin Harris (Nets) with a top notch 3 point shot.

[GimmeDat]

His strength's are legit but I definitely think we're going to need to see more from him offensively or else his reputation will change coming towards draft time.

[Duke4life831]

His strength's are legit but I definitely think we're going to need to see more from him offensively or else his reputation will change coming towards draft time.

If UCLA keeps winning I think his reputation wont change all that much. But if they start to drop games, then ya I agree he is going to need to start showing a more aggressive side. Its there, he hunts for his own shot more in tight games towards the end. But he is going to need to do that more and be more aggressive when driving. Its becoming predictable that when he drives to the paint hes looking to kick it out.

[GimmeDat]

His strength's are legit but I definitely think we're going to need to see more from him offensively or else his reputation will change coming towards draft time.

If UCLA keeps winning I think his reputation wont change all that much. But if they start to drop games, then ya I agree he is going to need to start showing a more aggressive side. Its there, he hunts for his own shot more in tight games towards the end. But he is going to need to do that more and be more aggressive when driving. Its becoming predictable that when he drives to the paint hes looking to kick it out.

I think with the way UCLA's playing, he could likely get away with not flashing the extent of his offensive abilities all season, but I think the fact that he rarely scores inside the arc in the half-court is a major question mark for how he's going to be at the next level.

I've seen some instances of him at the end of halves showing some iso ability, but as the season progresses it would be great to see him drive to score more, and see a floater or something at some point.

[Duke4life831]

His strength's are legit but I definitely think we're going to need to see more from him offensively or else his reputation will change coming towards draft time.

If UCLA keeps winning I think his reputation wont change all that much. But if they start to drop games, then ya I agree he is going to need to start showing a more aggressive side. Its there, he hunts for his own shot more in tight games towards the end. But he is going to need to do that more and be more aggressive when driving. Its becoming predictable that when he drives to the paint hes looking to kick it out.

I think with the way UCLA's playing, he could likely get away with not flashing the extent of his offensive abilities all season, but I think the fact that he rarely scores inside the arc in the half-court is a major question mark for how he's going to be at the next level.

I've seen some instances of him at the end of halves showing some iso ability, but as the season progresses it would be great to see him drive to score more, and see a floater or something at some point.

Even if he doesnt show the floater this year, hes going to have to add it for sure if he wants to be able to score inside the arc in the NBA. I think as the season goes on hopefully he starts looking to score a little more on his drives. He seems to have the ability, just doesnt show it enough.

[eagereyez]

I wonder if Lonzo Ball really is a better passer than Fultz and Smith. He's averaging more assists, but a lower AST%. Are his assists simply a result of the team he's playing for? Would Fultz and Smith average as many or more assists if they played for UCLA? Then again, his usage rate is ridiculously low (17%).

[Marcus]

I wonder if Lonzo Ball really is a better passer than Fultz and Smith. He's averaging more assists, but a lower AST%. Are his assists simply a result of the team he's playing for? Would Fultz and Smith average as many or more assists if they played for UCLA? Then again, his usage rate is ridiculously low (17%).

Best passer in the draft. Not really close either.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Assists Per 40:

Ball 9.3
Fox 8.8
Fultz 7.5
Smith 7.5

[Kolkmania]

I wonder if Lonzo Ball really is a better passer than Fultz and Smith. He's averaging more assists, but a lower AST%. Are his assists simply a result of the team he's playing for? Would Fultz and Smith average as many or more assists if they played for UCLA? Then again, his usage rate is ridiculously low (17%).

His USG% rate is really low, because he doesn't shoot often compared to those prospects and his FTr is also poor, so it's not entirely related with his playmaking abilities. AST%'s are comparable with Fultz and Fox.

I don't think we can state that one of the three is the better passer based on these "advanced" stats.

[The_Hater]

Ball's stock is going to drop off a cliff towards the end of the season. Dude's hype is built around being a "winner" and passing ability, which is overrated in itself. How in the world are you going to have a PG that is essentially a spot up 3 pt shooter in the half court? And dudes have the nerve to call him the number 1 pick, the Kidd comparisons need to stop

Well he's 18 and shooting is a skill that tends to improve over time. He's a solid enough shooter and there's no reason to think he won't get better off the bounce.

Not sure about the criticism with his passing though, he's clearly elite and one of the best passing PG's the draft has had in years.

His defense is the biggest question mark IMO but based on the way the NBA game is being played these days his offensive skill set and bball IQ translates very well.

[Marcus]

I'm not seeing where his defense is the issue it's being made out to be. He's good on ball, good with anticipation, and is a playmaker on that end of the floor.

[Marcus]

I wonder if Lonzo Ball really is a better passer than Fultz and Smith. He's averaging more assists, but a lower AST%. Are his assists simply a result of the team he's playing for? Would Fultz and Smith average as many or more assists if they played for UCLA? Then again, his usage rate is ridiculously low (17%).

His USG% rate is really low, because he doesn't shoot often compared to those prospects and his FTr is also poor, so it's not entirely related with his playmaking abilities. AST%'s are comparable with Fultz and Fox.

I don't think we can state that one of the three is the better passer based on these "advanced" stats.

yeah the numbers shouldn't be the driving force in assessing prospects IMO.

Lonzo is somebody you have to watch to understand. In terms of passing, throw the numbers out and watch the results and variety, watch the timing, watch how quick he swings, watch how he passes people open, watch how he seems to always put it right in the shooter's pocket, see how aware he is of everybody on the floor and how little he forces it, watch the hit ahead passes and how well he reads what the defense is doing.

Also day one in the NBA he'll be the 2nd best outlet passer in the league next to Kevin Love.

[bigboi]

Ball's stock is going to drop off a cliff towards the end of the season. Dude's hype is built around being a "winner" and passing ability, which is overrated in itself. How in the world are you going to have a PG that is essentially a spot up 3 pt shooter in the half court? And dudes have the nerve to call him the number 1 pick, the Kidd comparisons need to stop

Well he's 18 and shooting is a skill that tends to improve over time. He's a solid enough shooter and there's no reason to think he won't get better off the bounce.

Not sure about the criticism with his passing though, he's clearly elite and one of the best passing PG's the draft has had in years.

His defense is the biggest question mark IMO but based on the way the NBA game is being played these days his offensive skill set and bball IQ translates very well.

What makes him elite other than a high assist total? He's an elite passer in transition, he's a great transition player actually. But his passing in the half court isn't that impressive to me. He's a solid shooter off the catch or standstill, how many people really learn how to develop a shot off the dribble if they haven't by that age. And the problem is more that he barely beats his man off the dribble. The Kidd comparisons make 0 sense

[jrob23]

Ball is on a loaded team with veteran shot makers. He is 18 y/o and isn't looking to get his shot off because frankly, he hasn't needed to. He loves controlling the game and setting up teammates. What should be viewed as a positive is twisted into a negative. People said he couldn't shoot. They said he'll be blocked with that unorthodox low delivery. Then he goes out and shoot lights out from 3 and changes that narrative. Then you realize he's 6'6" and huge for a PG so who exactly is blocking him? So I'm supposed to believe Isaiah Thomas at 5'9" can somehow manage to get his shot off but Ball can't? smh. When his team has needed him to, Ball has been aggressive. The reason why people compare him to Kidd is because they really do have similar games. Both have elite BBIQ, passing, floor generalmanship and very disruptive defenders. I'm just assuming anyone who doesn't see that didn't watch Jason Kidd coming out of college and early NBA. There's a comparison for a reason.

People also have to realize that 18 y/o kids aren't finished products. He could very well bulk up and incorporate a post up game to take advantage of his size. He could develop a PNR game or tear drop shot. And if you can't see why a team that already has talent with scoring elsewhere, might prefer Ball's style over Fultz, than I don't know what to tell you. Maybe stop paying attention to prospects and scouting in general, because you are bad at it.

[Duke4life831]

I wonder if Lonzo Ball really is a better passer than Fultz and Smith. He's averaging more assists, but a lower AST%. Are his assists simply a result of the team he's playing for? Would Fultz and Smith average as many or more assists if they played for UCLA? Then again, his usage rate is ridiculously low (17%).

His USG% rate is really low, because he doesn't shoot often compared to those prospects and his FTr is also poor, so it's not entirely related with his playmaking abilities. AST%'s are comparable with Fultz and Fox.

I don't think we can state that one of the three is the better passer based on these "advanced" stats.

yeah the numbers shouldn't be the driving force in assessing prospects IMO.

Lonzo is somebody you have to watch to understand. In terms of passing, throw the numbers out and watch the results and variety, watch the timing, watch how quick he swings, watch how he passes people open, watch how he seems to always put it right in the shooter's pocket, see how aware he is of everybody on the floor and how little he forces it, watch the hit ahead passes and how well he reads what the defense is doing.

Also day one in the NBA he'll be the 2nd best outlet passer in the league next to Kevin Love.

Yup sometimes you need to look beyond stats to assess someone. There is a calmness to Ball's game that the other PGs don't. You gotta throw AST% and Ast pg somewhat out of the window. Now if looking at them you see some major red flags then you can pay attention to them. But UCLA's system they run isn't a system where they only run it through Ball or he's pounding the rock. It's a system with lots of ball movement and tons of passing. So you gotta watch the games and see the decisions Ball makes. He has tremendous vision and most importantly timing on his passes. He sees a lot of passes most PGs don't plus the timing on even the simple passes are impressive.

[Chuck Everett]

After learning a little more about the Ball's, something tells me that Lonzo is a bit more of a project than we think. I am intrigued to see what the draft process with him will be like. His father seems like a "tiger-mom" where he will not want him to work out against anyone to protect his draft status.

Still a lotto pick, but I need to see him get away from his family in a pro environment to see what he can really become.

[Marcus]

Ball is on a loaded team with veteran shot makers. He is 18 y/o and isn't looking to get his shot off because frankly, he hasn't needed to. He loves controlling the game and setting up teammates. What should be viewed as a positive is twisted into a negative. People said he couldn't shoot. They said he'll be blocked with that unorthodox low delivery. Then he goes out and shoot lights out from 3 and changes that narrative. Then you realize he's 6'6" and huge for a PG so who exactly is blocking him? So I'm supposed to believe Isaiah Thomas at 5'9" can somehow manage to get his shot off but Ball can't? smh. When his team has needed him to, Ball has been aggressive. The reason why people compare him to Kidd is because they really do have similar games. Both have elite BBIQ, passing, floor generalmanship and very disruptive defenders. I'm just assuming anyone who doesn't see that didn't watch Jason Kidd coming out of college and early NBA. There's a comparison for a reason.

People also have to realize that 18 y/o kids aren't finished products. He could very well bulk up and incorporate a post up game to take advantage of his size. He could develop a PNR game or tear drop shot. And if you can't see why a team that already has talent with scoring elsewhere, might prefer Ball's style over Fultz, than I don't know what to tell you. Maybe stop paying attention to prospects and scouting in general, because you are bad at it.

love this whole post except the end of it (though I understand where you're coming from). Was pretty much going to post the same thing because it can be a little off-putting I guess to read some of the comments and critiques about this kid. Like I said in the Monk thread I feel like folks are just being introduced to these kids and can't see past what's happening right now (which is fair). If you've had any experience actually watching this kid play you'd understand what's going on. He's a pure pass first PG and we knew this coming into the draft. He was that mold out of all the kids at his position in the class he was the pure PG. Not the scoring PG, not the ISO PG, not the PG that could play some two, the pure, PASS FIRST PG. Said it before the season started he's the guy you add to a bunch of marginally talented shooters and finishers and his addition will make that team better because of everything he brings and the way he plays the game. Why people want him to drop 25 and drive the lane every play makes no sense to me because if you've watched him at all outside of UCLA you'd know that's not his game.

The narrative that he can't penetrate is also false and is being looked at completely wrong. I need it explained to me why a 18yr old kid that is clearly the most talented player on his team (more times than not on the floor period) not forcing a drive to the basket into traffic every time is looked at as a negative thing. As you stated earlier when he's had to drive and score he did it. Did against UK when they needed a bucket, did it against A&M to stop a couple runs, did it against Oregon where he flattened out the floor with four on the baseline and ISOed from the top of the key to the cup for a bucket. He's not going to do it every play because its not the way he plays basketball and if you're somebody that expects or wants that from your PG play in and play out then you're better off looking at Smith or Fultz for your fix.

His form isn't going to be a problem because he knows how much room he needs to get it off and he knows how to create enough space to do it. Probably won't see a lot of pullups but the floater will be there and will alleviate other worries. The kid is legit period. Understands the game and plays it ahead of most of the other people on the floor.

[eagereyez]

I wonder if Lonzo Ball really is a better passer than Fultz and Smith. He's averaging more assists, but a lower AST%. Are his assists simply a result of the team he's playing for? Would Fultz and Smith average as many or more assists if they played for UCLA? Then again, his usage rate is ridiculously low (17%).

His USG% rate is really low, because he doesn't shoot often compared to those prospects and his FTr is also poor, so it's not entirely related with his playmaking abilities. AST%'s are comparable with Fultz and Fox.

I don't think we can state that one of the three is the better passer based on these "advanced" stats.

Yeah I'm reluctant to draw a firm conclusion due to how dramatically different the circumstances are between Fultz, Smith, and Ball. Context is very important. If a team's offensive system creates tons of assists, then it stands to reason that the players in such a system would have inflated assist numbers, right?

I've also become more unsure of how these guys stack up defensively. I guess it's best to wait till after the college season is over when more information becomes available.

Sent from my SM-G900T using RealGM mobile app

[cellar-door]

Ball's stock is going to drop off a cliff towards the end of the season. Dude's hype is built around being a "winner" and passing ability, which is overrated in itself. How in the world are you going to have a PG that is essentially a spot up 3 pt shooter in the half court? And dudes have the nerve to call him the number 1 pick, the Kidd comparisons need to stop

Well he's 18 and shooting is a skill that tends to improve over time. He's a solid enough shooter and there's no reason to think he won't get better off the bounce.

Not sure about the criticism with his passing though, he's clearly elite and one of the best passing PG's the draft has had in years.

His defense is the biggest question mark IMO but based on the way the NBA game is being played these days his offensive skill set and bball IQ translates very well.

He has a weird low, sidewinder release though. No reason to think he'll improve if the problem is that he can't get that release off in off the bounce situations. I mean, sure you could break down his whole shot, and rebuild it from the ground up into a better form, but that's really hard to do and takes time. That's the real concern, that he'll never be able to shoot off the dribble or in contested situations without a complete overhaul of his shooting form. If that's correct his ceiling is a lot lower.

Edit- That's the concern regarding his shot. The other offensive concern is whether he has the explosiveness to beat guys off the dribble, he's rarely shown it so far (and some of those were against forwards on mis-matches).