Sam Presti's trade methodology and why I'll be surprised if we wind up with Rudy Gay

[Andre Roberstan]

So I've been thinking about this a fair bit lately. Thought I'd run it by the board.

What do most of his deals have in common?

Young, cheap players with upside who are controllable assets over the long-term. Usually players that are stuck lower in the depth chart OR were people he liked in the draft.

I'm leaving out trades of just players for picks (like Mullens to CHA) for this one, since the pick is the target and not the player. Also draft-night fliers with cash or 2nd round pick swaps. Starting in 2011 cause my grasp of trades pre-that point is not good.

Our trade history:

Lazar Hayward: Hell if I know what he was thinking here. Gave up 2 seconds for him. (of note: Hayward's agent was the same as Daniel Hamilton, who plays for our D-League team. Also the Griffin brothers' agent, reported OKC target Chalmers, and reported OKC target 2Pat).

James Harden: This has been hashed and rehashed to infinity. But the TOR pick was the target, Lamb the secondary. Lamb never panned out. Player for more controllable long-term young player, with the pick being the main value.

Ronnie Brewer: I'm not entirely sure what this was about. Gave up a second to get a guy that barely played and expired at the end of the year. Agent favor? Henry Thomas represents Liggins, who was on the Thunder during that time period too.

Dion Waiters: Former Presti draft target. Young, controllable asset.

Reggie Jackson: Bit different cause his hand was somewhat forced, but Kanter was the obvious target here. Controllable long-term, which made the difference between him and BroLo. I had heard BroLo wouldn't guarantee extending in OKC.

Luke Ridnour: LOL, salary dump.

DJ Augustin: Salary dump. Foye was the target, but he wasn't the target.

Serge Ibaka: Expiring player traded for TWO young, controllable assets, one of whom was stuck behind other players (Fournier)

Joffrey Lauvergne: Gave 2 seconds for him. Young, controllable asset, stuck behind other players.

Jerami Grant: Gave a first for him (heavily protected). Young, controllable asset stuck behind other players.

Conclusions:

1) It doesn't look like Presti is overly worried about sending out 2nds if there's a player he likes. Maybe fairly, as on draft nights we've picked up plenty of 2nd-round players for cash, pick swaps or marginal rotation players.

2) Outside of salary dumps (and the inexplicable Brewer trade), all of his player-for-player trades have been targeting young players on their rookie contracts. Every. Single. One. He signs vets, he doesn't trade for them (at least so far, outside of Brewer).

3) Of rumored deals, any older players would have had to agree to an extension before the trade.

So. Presti favors young, controllable, upside. Sometimes (Dipo, Waiters, Grant, probably Lauvergne) they're players he's scouted and wanted since the draft. Underachieving (Waiters), buried (Lauvergne, Grant).

If anyone has insight on Perk or Chandler, feel free to chime in.

Who fits?

Who's still on a rookie scale deal?

Bearing in mind that it's SUPER SUPER unlikely anyone trades someone they drafted this year (unless as part of another deal), let's look at rookie contract players not in their rookie season.

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/contracts/draft-2013/
http://www.spotrac.com/nba/contracts/draft-2014/
http://www.spotrac.com/nba/contracts/draft-2015/

Now, what are our needs?

Starters seem fairly entrenched as Thunder players for now, either due to contract situation or being good or both. Only exception would be Robes.

Russ/Dipo/????/Sabonis/Adams

Bench rotation could see some shakeup. I don't see Abrines or Grant headed anywhere. Lauvergne could be headed elsewhere, but I think it's unlikely unless as part of a significant trade. Kanter's a likely candidate to move, as is Payne.

Now—most likely that Hamilton and Johnson get called up from the D-League next year, since they've been balling and they'll be dirt cheap. I'm going to add them in.

????/Abrines/Grant/Lauvergne/Johnson

As far as deep bench, I'll bet a lot that Christon, Singler and Collison are still here.

Christon/Hamilton/Singler/????/Collison

Our most immediate issues are bench ball handling and the gaping void at small forward. I'm also expecting a project PF/C.

So who fits those needs and has even an outside chance of being available?

Bench ball handler:
Terry Rozier, Delon Wright, Tyus Jones, Marcus Smart, Elfrid Payton

Swingman:
Rashad Vaughn, Justin Anderson, Norman Powell (rumored in TOR Ibaka trade), Josh Richardson, Glenn Robinson (rumored Presti target in draft), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Sam Dekker, Stanley Johnson, James Ennis (RFA—unlikely)

Project PF/C
Bobby Portis, Montrezl Harrell, Richaun Holmes, Jarell Martin

If we go for a trade, I'm far more expecting a guy like this to be the return than Rudy Gay or another veteran.

Who's most likely?
I think Stanjo's more likely than most do. Martin from Memphis fits that project PF spot. Terry Rozier or Marcus Smart seem very likely to move to me, and BOS has been a trade partner before.

Not saying it's impossible that we get a vet, but it's not been the way Presti has worked before. Things change. Maybe he has too.

[ThunderBolt]

Good read and good research. I agree with everything you wrote. I'm not one that thinks Presti is infallible, but generally I agree with his strategy.

[spearsy23]

I really don't think it will be gay either. Vaughn and Mario hezonja are two guys I think could fit the profile, but we need a 3/4 instead of a 2/3. Sam dekker and taurean prince are the right types of player. I don't think I feel good about trading cam for any of those guys.

I'd also say robes is more likely to stay a starter than dipo. Presti REALLY wants a manu.

[Andre Roberstan]

I really don't think it will be gay either. Vaughn and Mario hezonja are two guys I think could fit the profile, but we need a 3/4 instead of a 2/3. Sam dekker and taurean prince are the right types of player. I don't think I feel good about trading cam for any of those guys.

I'd also say robes is more likely to stay a starter than dipo. Presti REALLY wants a manu.

I agree with this (outside of Hezonja, who's been awful and thinks he's Kobe), but I can't recall the last player (outside of those traded for outside of the extension deadline) that's hit RFA with us. I guess Dion, but it was pretty apparent his future relied on the Cupcake's decision.

[bondom34]

I tend to agree and thought the same on SJ. Trying to think of other guys now.

[spearsy23]

Mario has been bad this year, but he was pretty decent and definitely showed some promise last year. Besides, as we've seen before, being awful doesn't mean we won't trade for you and give you 25 minutes per night

And I guess robes could be gone, but I don't think he has enough trade value to make trading him worthwhile and I don't think he'll get a big enough offer in rfa to make letting him go feasible. We'd have no rotation caliber wings at that point, unless you think grant is more three than four, but even then he's a deep rotation guy and starting him is just bad.

[ThunderBolt]

Why is there such an emphasis on moving Oladipo to the bench? He's arguably our second best player and most likely to develop into an all star. Those are the guys we want starting.

[Pillendreher]

Re Perk: I think it's pretty clear that he was brought in to provide leadership. That might be the reason why we held onto him for (way) too long. Durant sure as hell wasn't providing it the way Perk apparently did.

Re Gay: What this will come down to is two or three things:

1) What direction are we going? Is Presti trying to contend as soon as possible? Then he might look for a veteran wing like Matthews or Gay to fill that void.
Or is he willing to wait for our young guys to develop and then take Russ as he starts his decline (How long can he continue like this? LeBron still isn't getting notably worse, but is Russ LeBron 'body wise'?)? If so, then he won't trade for an older guy, simply because it doesn't really fit our current age structure.

2) How much would he have to give up and would a veteran player agree to extend? I still firmly believe that guys like Matthews or Gay aren't worth Payne, simply because you're giving them a promising young player for a declining older player who's (gonna be) overpaid.
I still highly doubt that we offered Payne. I think we offered squat and the Kings want Payne. That's why that scenario is getting mentioned every 2 weeks or so. It's the Kings talking.

3) Is Presti gonna be able to get anyone better? It might just be that guys like Gay are the maximum for us in the trade market.

I've often argued that - like you said - a Gay trade just doesn't fit Presti's profile. He likes to guy after (supposedly) talented guys, not after guys on the tailend of their careers.
But - just like spearsy said - I fear he's gonna dump Payne for another scrub and label him his next 'I'mma fix him' project which will grant him unwarranted minutes night in, night out. We've been through this cycle already.

[spearsy23]

Why is there such an emphasis on moving Oladipo to the bench? He's arguably our second best player and most likely to develop into an all star. Those are the guys we want starting.

That hasn't been the case in the past and the word from summer league was that we were planning for dipo to come off the bench until durant left. It's simply Presti's philosophy, and one I agree with; it allows your bench a lot more freedom when there's a guy that can consistently get his. It also is the easiest way to stagger high usage players without diminishing returns. Ideally you have two top tier offensive players in the starting lineup, then a second tier option to run the bench through. You close the game with all three of them, but you always have at least one of them on the court.

[Pillendreher]

And I guess robes could be gone, but I don't think he has enough trade value to make trading him worthwhile and I don't think he'll get a big enough offer in rfa to make letting him go feasible. We'd have no rotation caliber wings at that point, unless you think grant is more three than four, but even then he's a deep rotation guy and starting him is just bad.

This is an interesting thought. I suspect Grant was supposed to be a Robes replacement, but with the way Robes can't hit 3s and now can't even hit FTs, there might just be none market whatsoever for him. I doubt Presti would just dump him because he didn't sign the extension agreement.

[bondom34]

Also just a note, but Payne for Gay obviously isn't close to working salary matching wise.

[spearsy23]

Also just a note, but Payne for Gay obviously isn't close to working salary matching wise.

Payne + morrow (singler if you can swing it) would be most likely.

[Dadouv47]

Yup, no way we will trade for gay ( unless the kings are almost giving him for free).

Or he can magically trade for a GREAT player, or he will trade for a low salary player like he always does. No reason to give a lot to a player that will leave next offseason and that doesn't allow us to improve so much.

[ThunderBolt]

Why is there such an emphasis on moving Oladipo to the bench? He's arguably our second best player and most likely to develop into an all star. Those are the guys we want starting.

That hasn't been the case in the past and the word from summer league was that we were planning for dipo to come off the bench until durant left. It's simply Presti's philosophy, and one I agree with; it allows your bench a lot more freedom when there's a guy that can consistently get his. It also is the easiest way to stagger high usage players without diminishing returns. Ideally you have two top tier offensive players in the starting lineup, then a second tier option to run the bench through. You close the game with all three of them, but you always have at least one of them on the court.

In this scenario if Vic is number three, who is number two? If Stanley Johnson is brought it does he assume the number two role? Or are you just saying that Vic coming off the bench is Presti's ideal scenario?

[spearsy23]

Names that could help this year On teams that may blow it up come deadline, in other words guys that the tpe or cap space might actually be useful for

Niko mirotic
Korver/sefalosha
Marcus Morris
Cj miles
Jodi meek
Markieff Morris (happens to fit exactly into the tpe...)
Will barton
Quincy pondexter
Jared Dudley/ pj tucker

[spearsy23]

Why is there such an emphasis on moving Oladipo to the bench? He's arguably our second best player and most likely to develop into an all star. Those are the guys we want starting.

That hasn't been the case in the past and the word from summer league was that we were planning for dipo to come off the bench until durant left. It's simply Presti's philosophy, and one I agree with; it allows your bench a lot more freedom when there's a guy that can consistently get his. It also is the easiest way to stagger high usage players without diminishing returns. Ideally you have two top tier offensive players in the starting lineup, then a second tier option to run the bench through. You close the game with all three of them, but you always have at least one of them on the court.

In this scenario if Vic is number three, who is number two? If Stanley Johnson is brought it does he assume the number two role? Or are you just saying that Vic coming off the bench is Presti's ideal scenario?

Just that is Presti's ideal scenario, so if he gets a guy who is about as good as Vic offensively (ie Gay) then Vic most likely goes to the bench. If we get a guy like SJ then I don't think the starting lineup changes at all.

[ThunderBolt]

I'll take Will Barton but I don't see that we have the pieces to make a trade with Denver without involving a third team.

[Andre Roberstan]

I'll take Will Barton but I don't see that we have the pieces to make a trade with Denver without involving a third team.

Denver's starting lineup seems to have settled as Mudiay, Harris, Gallo, Chandler, Jokic.

I don't have a solid grasp on their rotation beyond that, but Nurkic seems to be out, and they have way too many wings. Barton's more of a SG than a SF.

Side note: Denver has enough cap space that Oladipo for one (or even two) of their wings works very neatly, even with poison pill.

[Pillendreher]

I'll take Will Barton but I don't see that we have the pieces to make a trade with Denver without involving a third team.

Denver's starting lineup seems to have settled as Mudiay, Harris, Gallo, Chandler, Jokic.

I don't have a solid grasp on their rotation beyond that, but Nurkic seems to be out, and they have way too many wings. Barton's more of a SG than a SF.

Side note: Denver has enough cap space that Oladipo for one (or even two) of their wings works very neatly, even with poison pill.

And why would we do that?!

[ThunderBolt]

I wouldn't want to get rid of Oladipo. I would be surprised and disappointmented if he were traded. Jamal Murray is likely the pg of the future in denever. It always comes back to who would want kanter and Payne. Denver doesn't seem like they would want either.