2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread

[Triples333]

With the leader of a 6 seed at the forefront of the debate, it's time to seriously start entering Giannis into the discussion. A team that was projected at 30 some odd wins, he has them as a 6 seed himself (worse record, but actually a better win differential than OKC...who were projected much higher preseason), while crushing both sides of the ball (unlike our top 2 candidates). He is putting up 24/9/6 + 2/2 on a > 60% TS and is top 5 in PER, WinShares, RPM and VORP. It is a legit MVP campaign, and game winners like the one he put up last night will help his narrative.

[Gil]

I'm not buying the better teammate excuse. They are both fairly similar teams. Houston has better shooters, OKC has superior athletes/defenders.

OKC's Rockets is reminiscent of Houston's during their WCF run except Russ has Oladipo who should be given more of the ball. I also think they'll be much better with Payne returning.

[bondom34]

I'm not buying the better teammate excuse. They are both fairly similar teams. Houston has better shooters, OKC has superior athletes/defenders.

OKC's Rockets is reminiscent of Houston's during their WCF run except Russ has Oladipo who should be given more of the ball. I also think they'll be much better with Payne returning.

OKC with Westbrook on bench -12.2 Net Rating:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/OKC/2017/on-off/

Houston with Harden on bench +2.1 Net Rating.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2017/on-off/

[red96]

With the leader of a 6 seed at the forefront of the debate, it's time to seriously start entering Giannis into the discussion. A team that was projected at 30 some odd wins, he has them as a 6 seed himself (worse record, but actually a better win differential than OKC...who were projected much higher preseason), while crushing both sides of the ball (unlike our top 2 candidates). He is putting up 24/9/6 + 2/2 on a > 60% TS and is top 5 in PER, WinShares, RPM and VORP. It is a legit MVP campaign, and game winners like the one he put up last night will help his narrative.

Has their ever been an MVP on a .500 team? Im seriously asking if that has ever happened. And if it has, was it 40+ years ago? I just can't imagine a team thats treading water in the weaker division having a chance at MVP.

[ken6199]

Bucks as East 6th seed but with a 3rd ranked SRS (miles behind TOR and CLE though, tad ahead of BOS). That SRS put them right behind UTA in the West, ahead of OKC. I say if Westbrook is in the conversation, Giannis should be too.

No way he gets voting into the top 3 with a .529 winning% though. Harsh, but that's the way it is.

[Kabookalu]

With the leader of a 6 seed at the forefront of the debate, it's time to seriously start entering Giannis into the discussion. A team that was projected at 30 some odd wins, he has them as a 6 seed himself (worse record, but actually a better win differential than OKC...who were projected much higher preseason), while crushing both sides of the ball (unlike our top 2 candidates). He is putting up 24/9/6 + 2/2 on a > 60% TS and is top 5 in PER, WinShares, RPM and VORP. It is a legit MVP campaign, and game winners like the one he put up last night will help his narrative.

What's also amazing is they're doing this without Khris Middleton, who's not only a great scorer and shooter, but a defender too.

[HurricaneKid]

With the leader of a 6 seed at the forefront of the debate, it's time to seriously start entering Giannis into the discussion. A team that was projected at 30 some odd wins, he has them as a 6 seed himself (worse record, but actually a better win differential than OKC...who were projected much higher preseason), while crushing both sides of the ball (unlike our top 2 candidates). He is putting up 24/9/6 + 2/2 on a > 60% TS and is top 5 in PER, WinShares, RPM and VORP. It is a legit MVP campaign, and game winners like the one he put up last night will help his narrative.

Has their ever been an MVP on a .500 team? Im seriously asking if that has ever happened. And if it has, was it 40+ years ago? I just can't imagine a team thats treading water in the weaker division having a chance at MVP.

They have the #8 SRS in the NBA. They have had some really tough losses against elite teams. They had Cle beaten @Cle until LeBron made a 27 footer and had SAS beaten as well until a young team coughed it up in the final minute.

No one actually thinks he is a contender when the Bucks are a .500 team. But A) the Bucks are currently the 6 seed and have the same # of losses as the 4 seed. B) Their point differential suggests they are no where near a .500 team. If they can close games a little better (like last night) and the SRS can normalize with the W/L its entirely likely they end up as the 4 seed. Especially if Middleton comes back (which is a position of need in his absence).

I think Houston has a real shot at dropping to the 4 seed too. I might just not be admitting how far off I was on them; but between the injury histories of Gordon, et al and their overachievement to this point, I think its perfectly reasonable to expect LAC or UT to catch them.

I still don't think he will win but its not out of the realm. Giannis has been getting better by the week. Over the last 20 games he has shot .373 from 3. I can only imagine what he will look like in 5-6 years.

[Triples333]

With the leader of a 6 seed at the forefront of the debate, it's time to seriously start entering Giannis into the discussion. A team that was projected at 30 some odd wins, he has them as a 6 seed himself (worse record, but actually a better win differential than OKC...who were projected much higher preseason), while crushing both sides of the ball (unlike our top 2 candidates). He is putting up 24/9/6 + 2/2 on a > 60% TS and is top 5 in PER, WinShares, RPM and VORP. It is a legit MVP campaign, and game winners like the one he put up last night will help his narrative.

Has their ever been an MVP on a .500 team? Im seriously asking if that has ever happened. And if it has, was it 40+ years ago? I just can't imagine a team thats treading water in the weaker division having a chance at MVP.

I was speaking more so on an individual level, but you would have to go back to the early 80's with Moses Malone who won it on a mid 40 win Rockets squad.

He actually has them playing better ball than OKC was my point (and the same seed despite a few less wins). Seeing as they were projected much worse, I think we need to take that into heavy consideration. But although a strong argument can be made that he is playing at or above any other player, I agree that the wins are too low and he will have to lead them to an HCA birth to have a real piece of the argument. Luckily for him the East has two top teams then the rest, so an HCA seed is very much within their reach (3rd best win differential in the conference as is).

It is not a year where the "best player best team" narrative will fly, so all bets are off.

[K_chile22]

I'm not buying the better teammate excuse. They are both fairly similar teams. Houston has better shooters, OKC has superior athletes/defenders.

OKC's Rockets is reminiscent of Houston's during their WCF run except Russ has Oladipo who should be given more of the ball. I also think they'll be much better with Payne returning.

OKC with Westbrook on bench -12.2 Net Rating:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/OKC/2017/on-off/

Houston with Harden on bench +2.1 Net Rating.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2017/on-off/

That has more to do with Samaj coming in for Russ than anything. Early in the year when Ennis was coming in for Harden they were similarly bad with Harden out

[bondom34]

I'm not buying the better teammate excuse. They are both fairly similar teams. Houston has better shooters, OKC has superior athletes/defenders.

OKC's Rockets is reminiscent of Houston's during their WCF run except Russ has Oladipo who should be given more of the ball. I also think they'll be much better with Payne returning.

OKC with Westbrook on bench -12.2 Net Rating:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/OKC/2017/on-off/

Houston with Harden on bench +2.1 Net Rating.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2017/on-off/

That has more to do with Samaj coming in for Russ than anything. Early in the year when Ennis was coming in for Harden they were similarly bad with Harden out

If the argument is "Westbrook's support is the same", it really isn't. It shows in pretty much everything. Look at BPM (just as a quick example), and Westbrook has 1 teammate with a positive/non-negative BPM. Harden has 6.

[red96]

With the leader of a 6 seed at the forefront of the debate, it's time to seriously start entering Giannis into the discussion. A team that was projected at 30 some odd wins, he has them as a 6 seed himself (worse record, but actually a better win differential than OKC...who were projected much higher preseason), while crushing both sides of the ball (unlike our top 2 candidates). He is putting up 24/9/6 + 2/2 on a > 60% TS and is top 5 in PER, WinShares, RPM and VORP. It is a legit MVP campaign, and game winners like the one he put up last night will help his narrative.

Has their ever been an MVP on a .500 team? Im seriously asking if that has ever happened. And if it has, was it 40+ years ago? I just can't imagine a team thats treading water in the weaker division having a chance at MVP.

I was speaking more so on an individual level, but you would have to go back to the early 80's with Moses Malone who won it on a mid 40 win Rockets squad.

He actually has them playing better ball than OKC was my point (and the same seed despite a few less wins). Seeing as they were projected much worse, I think we need to take that into heavy consideration. But although a strong argument can be made that he is playing at or above any other player, I agree that the wins are too low and he will have to lead them to an HCA birth to have a real piece of the argument. Luckily for him the East has two top teams then the rest, so an HCA seed is very much within their reach (3rd best win differential in the conference as is).

It is not a year where the "best player best team" narrative will fly, so all bets are off.

Yeah, Giannis is ballin his ass off, but is it enough? Moses Molone's 1982 MVP was a unicorn. His Rockets only won 46 games, but they also finnished that season as 6th in their conference and tied for the 7th best record in the league. The Bucks are currently in 6th their conference, but 13th overall. Giannis and the Bucks got a lot of work to do to even have a chance for a unlikely chance. Almost like winning a raffle for a lottery ticket. But its not impossible.

[Triples333]

Harden has a better offensive cast, and Westbrook a better defensive cast. Going into the year the expectation across the board was that OKC should be the better team overall. Granted, the health and questions on general productivity of Gordon and Anderson were part of that, who have done great for them in their roles (well Gordon at least).

OKC looks like they're already starting to drop the games I was predicting they would in late Dec/January. Big matchup against the Rox tonight.

[K_chile22]

OKC with Westbrook on bench -12.2 Net Rating:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/OKC/2017/on-off/

Houston with Harden on bench +2.1 Net Rating.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2017/on-off/

That has more to do with Samaj coming in for Russ than anything. Early in the year when Ennis was coming in for Harden they were similarly bad with Harden out

If the argument is "Westbrook's support is the same", it really isn't. It shows in pretty much everything. Look at BPM (just as a quick example), and Westbrook has 1 teammate with a positive/non-negative BPM. Harden has 6.

Well, that happens when a team wins more games and is in the positive more

[bondom34]

That has more to do with Samaj coming in for Russ than anything. Early in the year when Ennis was coming in for Harden they were similarly bad with Harden out

If the argument is "Westbrook's support is the same", it really isn't. It shows in pretty much everything. Look at BPM (just as a quick example), and Westbrook has 1 teammate with a positive/non-negative BPM. Harden has 6.

Well, that happens when a team wins more games and is in the positive more

It happens with teams with better players. Philly has as many positive BPM players as OKC.

[Triples333]

Has their ever been an MVP on a .500 team? Im seriously asking if that has ever happened. And if it has, was it 40+ years ago? I just can't imagine a team thats treading water in the weaker division having a chance at MVP.

I was speaking more so on an individual level, but you would have to go back to the early 80's with Moses Malone who won it on a mid 40 win Rockets squad.

He actually has them playing better ball than OKC was my point (and the same seed despite a few less wins). Seeing as they were projected much worse, I think we need to take that into heavy consideration. But although a strong argument can be made that he is playing at or above any other player, I agree that the wins are too low and he will have to lead them to an HCA birth to have a real piece of the argument. Luckily for him the East has two top teams then the rest, so an HCA seed is very much within their reach (3rd best win differential in the conference as is).

It is not a year where the "best player best team" narrative will fly, so all bets are off.

Yeah, Giannis is ballin his ass off, but is it enough? Moses Molone's 1982 MVP was a unicorn. His Rockets only won 46 games, but they also finnished that season as 6th in their conference and tied for the 7th best record in the league. The Bucks are currently in 6th their conference, but 13th overall. Giannis and the Bucks got a lot of work to do to even have a chance for a unlikely chance. Almost like winning a raffle for a lottery ticket. But its not impossible.

His strongest case in the W/L regard (though again, they still have to improve) is that a player on a 6 seed is the front-runner (or 1a) for many of the voters as is. Again, this isn't a "best player, best team" sort of season with KD joining Curry, so an outside the box candidate like Giannis isn't out of the question if he continues this dominance and they improve to HCA (they're 1 game back from that/tied for 4th best in the Loss column).

[red96]

With the leader of a 6 seed at the forefront of the debate, it's time to seriously start entering Giannis into the discussion. A team that was projected at 30 some odd wins, he has them as a 6 seed himself (worse record, but actually a better win differential than OKC...who were projected much higher preseason), while crushing both sides of the ball (unlike our top 2 candidates). He is putting up 24/9/6 + 2/2 on a > 60% TS and is top 5 in PER, WinShares, RPM and VORP. It is a legit MVP campaign, and game winners like the one he put up last night will help his narrative.

Has their ever been an MVP on a .500 team? Im seriously asking if that has ever happened. And if it has, was it 40+ years ago? I just can't imagine a team thats treading water in the weaker division having a chance at MVP.

They have the #8 SRS in the NBA. They have had some really tough losses against elite teams. They had Cle beaten @Cle until LeBron made a 27 footer and had SAS beaten as well until a young team coughed it up in the final minute.

No one actually thinks he is a contender when the Bucks are a .500 team. But A) the Bucks are currently the 6 seed and have the same # of losses as the 4 seed. B) Their point differential suggests they are no where near a .500 team. If they can close games a little better (like last night) and the SRS can normalize with the W/L its entirely likely they end up as the 4 seed. Especially if Middleton comes back (which is a position of need in his absence).

I think Houston has a real shot at dropping to the 4 seed too. I might just not be admitting how far off I was on them; but between the injury histories of Gordon, et al and their overachievement to this point, I think its perfectly reasonable to expect LAC or UT to catch them.

I still don't think he will win but its not out of the realm. Giannis has been getting better by the week. Over the last 20 games he has shot .373 from 3. I can only imagine what he will look like in 5-6 years.

Its isn't crazy to say they may falter a bit with injuries to key players. Thats reasonable for ever team. But there's 2 things i'd like to point out.
1. The Rockets have delt with injuries to key players before(in 2014-15) and they found a way to overcome the adversity.
2. The Rockets are dealing with injuries right now and are still playing well.
James Harden is the reason why. As long as he's playing at a high level, the Rockets will be ok.

Another thing is that the Rockets have a nice cushion between them and everyone else 4th seed and under. 4, 5 and 6 games to be exact. If the Rockets play .500 ball for the rest of the season they'd still finish with 50 wins. The 4th seeded Clippers would have to go 26-18 for the rest of the season to catch a .500 Rockets and neither Griffin nor Paul are back from their injuries yet. The Clippers actually began to falter a bit before the injuries of their big 2. The western seeds 3-6 are all dealing with injuries so I like the Rockets chances to keep their seed and maybe take the #2.

[red96]

I was speaking more so on an individual level, but you would have to go back to the early 80's with Moses Malone who won it on a mid 40 win Rockets squad.

He actually has them playing better ball than OKC was my point (and the same seed despite a few less wins). Seeing as they were projected much worse, I think we need to take that into heavy consideration. But although a strong argument can be made that he is playing at or above any other player, I agree that the wins are too low and he will have to lead them to an HCA birth to have a real piece of the argument. Luckily for him the East has two top teams then the rest, so an HCA seed is very much within their reach (3rd best win differential in the conference as is).

It is not a year where the "best player best team" narrative will fly, so all bets are off.

Yeah, Giannis is ballin his ass off, but is it enough? Moses Molone's 1982 MVP was a unicorn. His Rockets only won 46 games, but they also finnished that season as 6th in their conference and tied for the 7th best record in the league. The Bucks are currently in 6th their conference, but 13th overall. Giannis and the Bucks got a lot of work to do to even have a chance for a unlikely chance. Almost like winning a raffle for a lottery ticket. But its not impossible.

His strongest case in the W/L regard (though again, they still have to improve) is that a player on a 6 seed is the front-runner (or 1a) for many of the voters as is. Again, this isn't a "best player, best team" sort of season with KD joining Curry, so an outside the box candidate like Giannis isn't out of the question if he continues this dominance and they improve to HCA (they're 1 game back from that/tied for 4th best in the Loss column).

We're looking at this from 2 different viewpoints. Your talking east seedings while Im looking at league rankings/seedings. For me its about context. Imo, if Malone's team actually finished 13th in the league he wouldn't have got MVP. Seeds 4-12 in the east are only separated by 4.5 games and none of them are in the nba's top 10. The difference between all those teams is small. In the west its an 11 game difference. 7 of the leagues top 10 are in the west with the west's 3rd seed only .015 behing the east's 1st seed. The seeds Milwaukee are fighting for are for mediocre teams. No MVP has ever came from a mediocre team, at least none that im aware of. Its fun to get wrapped up into big numbers, but you also have to step back and look at the big picture.

[Triples333]

We're looking at this from 2 different viewpoints. Your talking east seedings while Im looking at league rankings/seedings. For me its about context. Imo, if Malone's team actually finished 13th in the league he wouldn't have got MVP. Seeds 4-12 in the east are only separated by 4.5 games and none of them are in the nba's top 10. The difference between all those teams is small. In the west its an 11 game difference. 7 of the leagues top 10 are in the west with the west's 3rd seed only .015 behing the east's 1st seed. The seeds Milwaukee are fighting for are for mediocre teams. No MVP has ever came from a mediocre team, at least none that im aware of. Its fun to get wrapped up into big numbers, but you also have to step back and look at the big picture.

A) I'm trying to explain that the Bucks are in fact outperforming the Thunder by both net differential and SRS (generally seen as more indicative of who the better team is than W/L record). And I think that, coupled with the fact that the Bucks are outperforming expectations while OKC is not, should matter (Bucks are 8th in SRS to OKC's 11).
B) We disagree on what is more important between interconference and league wide standings. If they get HCA in their conference but were 9th best in the NBA overall, that will be viewed as a bigger accomplishment for an MVP debate than if he was the 5 seed but the 8th best team in the league.
C) Harden and Westbrook are leading 3 and 6 seeds, respectively. A leader of a 3 seed hasn't won in ages and a 6 seed much farther back, yet Westbrook is the co-MVP to most right now. If he's a front-runner ... again ... then clearly that opens the debate up to other players from teams in that tier.

Bear in mind that OKC's gauntlet only gets tougher over the month, and it's highly possible that the Bucks have both the better SRS and record than them going into All Star weekend. If/when that is the case, would you consider him a top candidate alongside Harden/Westbrook, or would you simply remove Westbrook all together?

[K_chile22]

One game doesn't really mean much of anything just thought I'd point out the start of the come back happened with OKCs bench pummeling Houston

[bondom34]

One game doesn't really mean much of anything just thought I'd point out the start of the come back happened with OKCs bench pummeling Houston

And I'd add Westbrook was a plus 2 in a 2 point loss. And the argument "Harden's help isn't better" was pretty clearly not true.