Wizardspride wrote:
Yeah that's what's up!
Moderators: LyricalRico, nate33, montestewart
payitforward wrote:I didn't make my point clear enough, Dat -- sorry. At the conclusion of a game, the referees don't have to review video to find out who defended the P&R well, etc. in order to declare a winner. All they have to do is look up at the scoreboard. Whoever has the bigger number wins the game.
Those scoreboard numbers are entirely determined by other numbers. That is, how many 2- & 3-pt. shots you got (or gave up if we're looking at defensive numbers) and how many of those shots went in, how many FTAs you got & how many went in: those numbers 100% determine your score. Nothing else has any role. E.g. I read people say how much better Gortat would be if only he dunked more instead of getting layups. But of course, as you and I know, 2 points are 2 points.
payitforward wrote:What you are talking about is why the numbers are as they are. Essentially, you are saying that certain kinds of players don't produce good numbers (which is obvious of course) and as well that certain kinds of players create conditions which cause their teammates to produce less good numbers than otherwise they would. Or, conversely, that they create conditions which cause teammates to produce better numbers than otherwise they would produce. Yet, all the same, in the end it's those numbers that win/lose a game.
E.g., you write: "some players attract so much attention, their teammates benefit from their presence. See John Wall." Evidence for the truth of your claim ought to be easy to find, at least in some cases. For example, Marcin Gortat has now played almost 3.5 years with John Wall. If his numbers in those years are better than in his past career, & especially if he's gotten better as he's played more with John, that would provide evidence that you're right. He would have benefited from John's presence. But, in fact, his numbers as a Wizard are quite consistent with his numbers everywhere he's played in the league. He's quite a good Center. Here as he was in Phoenix.
Another piece of evidence that you are right would be if Paul Pierce was better as a Wizard than he was as a Net his previous year. If all that attention John attracted made it possible for Pierce, good as we know he was in any case, to be even better. Well... he was good. He was about as good as he had been the previous year when the PG he played with was... I don't remember off the top of my head -- do you?
Another piece of evidence would be if Markieff Morris put up more efficient performances than his career average in his now 1600+ minutes as a Wizard. But he hasn't.
Looking at it another way: what if Trevor Booker went down in production once he left the Wizards. I.e. in his years w/ Utah and the Nets. When John Wall wasn't on the court to benefit him by attracting all that attention. But that hasn't happened.
But, maybe there's evidence in other players' productivity numbers, and I simply haven't hit on them. Let me know which players have benefited from John's presence by putting up better numbers than they did either before or after they played with Wall.
The Wizards are a Hell of a lot better with John Wall than without him; we agree on that. Because of what a good player he is. In fact, the Wizards are as good and as bad as they are because of how good and how bad their players are. Period. Add a better player (say Paul Pierce), and we're a better team. Add a worse player (say Markieff Morris or Andrew Nicholson) and we're a worse team.
Why? Because better players put up better numbers -- that's what it means to be a better player. And better numbers win more games, because that's what decides who wins a game: numbers.
Illmatic12 wrote:
Dat2U wrote:payitforward wrote:I didn't make my point clear enough, Dat -- sorry. At the conclusion of a game, the referees don't have to review video to find out who defended the P&R well, etc. in order to declare a winner. All they have to do is look up at the scoreboard. Whoever has the bigger number wins the game.
Those scoreboard numbers are entirely determined by other numbers. That is, how many 2- & 3-pt. shots you got (or gave up if we're looking at defensive numbers) and how many of those shots went in, how many FTAs you got & how many went in: those numbers 100% determine your score. Nothing else has any role. E.g. I read people say how much better Gortat would be if only he dunked more instead of getting layups. But of course, as you and I know, 2 points are 2 points.
Are you saying defense doesn't have a role?...
payitforward wrote:What you are talking about is why the numbers are as they are.
payitforward wrote:...you are saying ... that certain kinds of players create conditions which cause their teammates to produce less good numbers than otherwise they would. Or, conversely, that they create conditions which cause teammates to produce better numbers than otherwise they would produce. Yet, all the same, in the end it's those numbers that win/lose a game.
Dat2U wrote:some players attract so much attention, their teammates benefit from their presence. See John Wall.
payitforward wrote:Marcin Gortat has now played almost 3.5 years with John Wall. If his numbers in those years are better than in his past career, & especially if he's gotten better as he's played more with John, that would provide evidence that you're right.
Dat2U wrote:Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence....If you look for X and don't find it, does that prove that there is no X?
Dat2U wrote:...the backwards mapping of the WP48 statistic paints a clear picture for you with its 94.9% correlation to wins. And until you are presented with new information to the contrary, any other conclusion is simply not possible.
This ignores all the potential variables. As you frequently do. Trying to get you address the obvious gap in clear measurements of defense is like trying to squeeze blood out of a turnip.
Dat2U wrote:And fine, go ahead and stick JJ Hickson at starting PF and we'd be better off, because the WP48 statistic says he's a decent player so despite his lack of skill and inability to defend at the 4 or 5, there's no doubting he'd help according to you.
Dat2U wrote:This same logic says ball dominant, non-shooters on the perimeter in like Rondo, Wade, Butler can work just fine because they are all good players.
This same logic says Rondo was more valuable than DeMarcus Cousins.
Dat2U wrote:The statistical evolution of the NBA is still in its infancy. Likely any evidence showing a correlation between individual defense & wins will be circumstantial. It's likely going to be years before we can clearly and fully explore the different variables that may play a part in wins and losses.

payitforward wrote:Wins & losses are produced entirely by numbers. No analysis of any kind is required to learn who won the game. Just look at the score.
payitforward wrote:And the score is produced entirely by other numbers.
payitforward wrote:A metric like WP48 isn't to be judged by comparing it with "the truth," dat. It's to be judged by comparing it to other metrics. All you can do is try and find the most useful one. E.g. WP48 is one hell of a lot better than PER. I.e. correlates better with real-world results.
payitforward wrote:The Bulls with their all-wrong roster are 17-18. Please explain why they're better than the Kings.
Box score stats don't measure things like competently hedging a pick-and-roll, or swinging the ball quickly to force the defense to keep moving, or boxing out to allow teammates to grab rebounds, or having a quick release on your shot to force your defender to remain close to you and play less help defense.
nate33 wrote:payitforward wrote:Wins & losses are produced entirely by numbers. No analysis of any kind is required to learn who won the game. Just look at the score.
Entirely true. From a team perspective, points scored and points allowed are the only numbers that matter. Nobody disputes this. The question is, how do you best assess how individual players contribute to those two team metrics.payitforward wrote:And the score is produced entirely by other numbers.
This is where you lose me....
nate33 wrote:The score of the game is produced entirely by the actions of the players, but not all of those actions are represented in box score statistics.
John Wall wrote:"7th place!? Yo Maverick. *7th* place!?
"I'm going to use this as fuel. It's tough: we're not on national TV, so the fans don't get to see me play. All the guards ahead of me are great players; no disrespect. But they also play in bigger markets. Never mind the fact that their teams all have better records than ours. It's disrespectful. But it's good, though. I'm gonna keep playing my game, working hard on defense, and trying to lead my team. WallWay. #5Deep.
"Isaiah's having a great year. He's making 6.587 million a year pre-tax. No signature shoe; he's got some rotation player-level deal with Nike. He's doing his thing. I'm not watching his money, tho'. He signed his deal when he signed it.
"Lowry and DeMar; they got a whole country riding for them. I'm proud of them boys. Kyle's making 12 million. That's 15,881,160 in loonies. Adidas gave him some player edition shoes, but they're not paying him Harden money, so I'm cool with that. Just 'cause you stitch your initials on the tongue of a shoe don't make it a signature. Kristen Ledlow could rock Lowry's shoes on Inside Stuff and you'd think they're hers.
"I don't know what DeMar makes; he never plays point guard so it doesn't matter.
"D Rose and D Wade are like my little brothers, feel me? They get that veteran respect. Rose has worked hard. 21.3 million, and he's earned it. I thought I'd get his slot as the number one guy at Three Stripes, but then he moved to New York, and they signed Harden. But hey; I'm glad he's eating. I heard a rumor that he signed a $500 million deal with Armani Exchange back in 2014; now he's as washed as Armani Exchange is. LOL. Nah, I'm just playing. Brothers mess with each other. Rose is my man hundred grand. Hundred grand pre-tax, that is (DC takes too much of my check as it is).
"Wade's making that Li-Ning money -- he makes $15 million on off-court deals alone. He gets microfiber cooling wipes from Mission Athlete Care. He's basically making my on-court salary off-court. And his wife is making that Being Mary Jane money, too -- not a bad come up from Star Jones. No jealousy here, though. Wade put in that work. He's a legend. I mean, sure, he won his rings with LeBron and Shaq and cashed in with a non-name sneaker company, but I don't hand out asterisks. Nothing but love for Wade.
Eff Kyrie."

ClutchDJ wrote:Melo, Wade, Zaza, Rose, Iggy, & Lin needs to be off this list.
I understand that Lin gets the Asian vote, but what group votes for Zaza? No, I doubt it's from the Golden State division of the Gabor sisters fanclub.
Ruzious wrote:ClutchDJ wrote:Melo, Wade, Zaza, Rose, Iggy, & Lin needs to be off this list.
Zaza is second among frontcourt players in the West...I understand that Lin gets the Asian vote, but what group votes for Zaza? No, I doubt it's from the Golden State division of the Gabor sisters fanclub.
payitforward wrote:E.g. it doesn't capture whether a guy made a great move to get an open shot, or hit a tough shot, or just had a ball bounce into his hands under the rim giving him an easy layup. Ditto across the rest of those "actions." Some rebounds are tough, some are easy. Etc.
payitforward wrote:And that's exactly why I said that you don't judge a metric (like PER or WP48 or Win Shares or EFF or any other such) by comparing it to the truth of what actually happens second to second in a basketball game. That's asking way too much! Instead, you have to compare these metrics to one another to find out how well they correlate with, as I wrote above, the results of those actions by players.
For example, if look every team in the NBA, and you total up the PER of all their players -- adjusting of course for how many minutes they play -- and then you list the team starting with the team that has the largest number down to the team with the smallest number, that list correlates @88% with a list of the teams by their win-loss record.
That's pretty good. It's much better than EFF, for example, and it's better than Win Shares as well I believe. But, if you do the same with WP48, the resulting list correlates at 94%+ (dat wrote 94.9%, but i don't think it's quite that high).
All that means is that WP48 is a more useful metric than PER. It doesn't mean it's a religion, a belief system with a hold on the truth. Find a metric that has even a .001% better correlation, and WP48 goes on the junk heap!
payitforward wrote:Now... the problem with all these metrics is that the only real way to "test" them is against results, as above, right? But, those results are at the team level, not the level of individual players on the team. Yet the metric is used to rate the individual players!
This problem, quite rightly, raises the question whether some guys' good play is actually being counted in other guys' good results instead of his own. It's a legitimate question, and in part it's reflected in statements like Dat's that John Wall makes other guys better.
keynote wrote:John Wall wrote:"7th place!? Yo Maverick. *7th* place!?
"I'm going to use this as fuel. It's tough: we're not on national TV, so the fans don't get to see me play. All the guards ahead of me are great players; no disrespect. But they also play in bigger markets. Never mind the fact that their teams all have better records than ours. It's disrespectful. But it's good, though. I'm gonna keep playing my game, working hard on defense, and trying to lead my team. WallWay. #5Deep.
"Isaiah's having a great year. He's making 6.587 million a year pre-tax. No signature shoe; he's got some rotation player-level deal with Nike. He's doing his thing. I'm not watching his money, tho'. He signed his deal when he signed it.
"Lowry and DeMar; they got a whole country riding for them. I'm proud of them boys. Kyle's making 12 million. That's 15,881,160 in loonies. Adidas gave him some player edition shoes, but they're not paying him Harden money, so I'm cool with that. Just 'cause you stitch your initials on the tongue of a shoe don't make it a signature. Kristen Ledlow could rock Lowry's shoes on Inside Stuff and you'd think they're hers.
"I don't know what DeMar makes; he never plays point guard so it doesn't matter.
"D Rose and D Wade are like my little brothers, feel me? They get that veteran respect. Rose has worked hard. 21.3 million, and he's earned it. I thought I'd get his slot as the number one guy at Three Stripes, but then he moved to New York, and they signed Harden. But hey; I'm glad he's eating. I heard a rumor that he signed a $500 million deal with Armani Exchange back in 2014; now he's as washed as Armani Exchange is. LOL. Nah, I'm just playing. Brothers mess with each other. Rose is my man hundred grand. Hundred grand pre-tax, that is (DC takes too much of my check as it is).
"Wade's making that Li-Ning money -- he makes $15 million on off-court deals alone. He gets microfiber cooling wipes from Mission Athlete Care. He's basically making my on-court salary off-court. And his wife is making that Being Mary Jane money, too -- not a bad come up from Star Jones. No jealousy here, though. Wade put in that work. He's a legend. I mean, sure, he won his rings with LeBron and Shaq and cashed in with a non-name sneaker company, but I don't hand out asterisks. Nothing but love for Wade.
Eff Kyrie."
