Realistic Free Agent Targets - 2017 Off-Season

[twix2500]

I havent really looked at the new CBA. What is the most that the Heat can offer Gordon Hayward.

He is a 7 year vet, so 30%, the same as Serge Ibaka:

Spoiler:

Ibaka, Hayward: With Bird Rights: 5/$181M or 4/$139M, without Bird Rights: 4/$133M. Ibaka and Hayward can make $48M more in Orlando or Utah over 5 years.

Rudy Gay, Paul Millsap are 10+ year players: Heat can offer 4/$155.4M. A 5-year deal with bird rights give 5/$211.5.

A designated player deal like Blake Griffin will get is 6/$264M

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Scenario 3: Hayward Signs a Long-Term Deal With the Jazz, Without the Super-Max

Spoiler:

All of the previous scenarios have one underlying assumption – the super-max is a possibility for Hayward.

The chances of that happening, however, are probably low, because the chances of him earning All NBA honors this season are probably low, and the chances of him betting guaranteed money on the prospect that he earns All NBA honors in the future if he doesn’t earn them this season are probably equally low.

And if we were to remove the prospect of a super-max deal, Utah’s financial advantage could shrink considerably.

The Jazz would still be able to give Hayward higher annual raises (8.0 percent of his first-year salary, vs. 5.0 percent) and a longer term (five years, vs. four) than can any other team. That would equate to as much as $179.2 million over five years with the Jazz, and $132.9 million over four years with any other team. The $46.4 million difference over one extra season is still significant.

But he might not want it.

Hayward’s best financial alternative in situations where the super-max is not a factor is clear: Structure a deal that gives him the flexibility to hit free agency as a 10-year veteran in the summer of 2020, when his max salary would rise to the Tier 3 super-max level. That’s three years from now.

In the non-super-max world, then, Hayward’s most lucrative contract would seemingly be a four-year deal, with a player option after three years. The contract give him the guarantee of a four-year deal – $138.4 million with the Jazz, $132.9 million with any other team – but also the flexibility to opt out at just the right moment.

A follow-on five-year max deal signed with the Jazz in the summer of 2020 could pay out $243.6 million, for a cumulative total of $343.7 million.

If he were to remain with the Jazz this summer, his payouts could look like this:

2017-18: $30,900,000 (Player Option Declined, 3+1 Deal Signed)
2018-19: $33,372,000
2019-20: $35,844,000
2020-21: $42,000,000 (3+1 Option Year Declined, New Five-Year Deal Signed)
2021-22: $45,360,000
2022-23: $48,720,000
2023-24: $52,080,000
2024-25: $55,440,000 (Player Option Could Be Negotiated)
Guaranteed Total: $138,432,000
Total Over Six Years: $236,196,000
Total Over Seven Years: $343,716,000

Scenario 4: Hayward Signs a Long-Term Deal With Another Team

The problem for the Jazz in a non-super-max scenario?

Any team could give Hayward a four-year deal. And even if he were to sign with another team this summer, the follow-on deal could pay out the very same five-years and $243.6 million, for a cumulative total $340.9 million.

If he were to sign a long-term deal with another team this summer, his payouts could look like this:

2017-18: $30,900,000 (Player Option Declined, 3+1 Deal Signed)
2018-19: $32,445,000
2019-20: $33,990,000
2020-21: $42,000,000 (3+1 Option Year Declined, New Five-Year Deal Signed)
2021-22: $45,360,000
2022-23: $48,720,000
2023-24: $52,080,000
2024-25: $55,440,000 (Player Option Could Be Negotiated)
Guaranteed Total: $132,870,000
Total Over Six Years: $233,415,000
Total Over Seven Years: $340,935,000

There’s not a huge difference between Scenarios 3 and 4 – less than $2.8 million, in fact, over the course of eight years. And in either case, Hayward would become a free agent as a 14-year veteran in the summer of 2024, at age 34. Under the league’s new Over-38 rules, he’d again be eligible to sign an up to four-year max contract.

Which could present a murky problem for the Jazz: If a super-max deal is off the table, the contract Hayward is likely to want isn’t significantly different whether he signs it with the Jazz or any other NBA team. Which could, in turn, cause him to test the free agent market in search of an opportunity that gives him a better chance to win.

***

What does it all mean?

Gordon Hayward has a ton of potentially intriguing options this summer. How he chooses to proceed will be dictated by whether he earns All NBA honors this summer, whether the Jazz would be willing to provide him a super-max contract if he does, whether he’s willing to take the financial risk of a shorter-term deal so that he could qualify for it if he makes All NBA in the following two seasons, and where he wants to player next season.

There will be two key dates to consider:

End of May: That’s when All NBA honors are typically announced. If Hayward makes the cut, he’d be eligible for a super-max extension that could potentially cause him to exercise his player option and pre-empt free agency.
June 29, 2017: That’s the date by which Hayward has to exercise his $16.7 million player option for next season. In the unlikely event he exercises it, his next move is clear – he’ll sign a super-max contract with the Jazz this summer. No other team will have a shot.
But if Hayward doesn’t earn All NBA honors this summer, as is perhaps likely, every team with max level cap room could have a shot at stealing him away. To do so, they would need to show him a legitimate path toward success that tops out higher than where the Jazz finish this season. The Jazz certain hope that’s with a few playoff victories.

Will Hayward qualify for the super-max? Would the Jazz pay it if he does? Would you?

If what Albert says is accurate. If Hayward does not make the All-Star team and not qualify for the Super-Max, the Heat could be in play for offering Hayward a competitive contract against what the Jazz can offer.

[gom]

That's a brilliant rundown, Twix.

By the way, Albert is almost always accurate with numbers. That doesn't mean you shouldn't check yours against his, because you learn something. I did, just now.

I thought the new CBA gave 8% raises based on the year before, but they maintain the first year raise. My numbers aren't that far off, a few million - lol, but I'm not sure it makes any difference. The question really comes down to whether Hayward would use the 3 year and opt out strategy, or take guaranteed money for 5 years. Of course if he is all-NBA the supermax is too tempting to pass up.

[twix2500]

That's a brilliant rundown, Twix.

Spoiler:

By the way, Albert is almost always accurate with numbers. That doesn't mean you shouldn't check yours against his, because you learn something. I did, just now.

I thought the new CBA gave 8% raises based on the year before, but they maintain the first year raise. My numbers aren't that far off, a few million - lol, but I'm not sure it makes any difference. The question really comes down to whether Hayward would use the 3 year and opt out strategy, or take guaranteed money for 5 years. Of course if he is all-NBA the supermax is too tempting to pass up.

So gom, just to get some perspective. We will likely have 41.5 mill in capspace (assuming Heat do not reup Ellington). If the Heat were to sign the quality of player Gordon Hayward we should expect that to take 30 mill of capspace, leaving only 11 mill left over. If Gordon is worth 30 mill, James Johnson should command north of 15 mill? If thats the case, the Heat would need Waiters to opt out and a stretch provision of McRoberts. Or will that not be enough when counting the draft pick?

[gom]

That's a brilliant rundown, Twix.

Spoiler:

By the way, Albert is almost always accurate with numbers. That doesn't mean you shouldn't check yours against his, because you learn something. I did, just now.

I thought the new CBA gave 8% raises based on the year before, but they maintain the first year raise. My numbers aren't that far off, a few million - lol, but I'm not sure it makes any difference. The question really comes down to whether Hayward would use the 3 year and opt out strategy, or take guaranteed money for 5 years. Of course if he is all-NBA the supermax is too tempting to pass up.

So gom, just to get some perspective. We will likely have 41.5 mill in capspace (assuming Heat do not reup Ellington). If the Heat were to sign the quality of player Gordon Hayward we should expect that to take 30 mill of capspace, leaving only 11 mill left over. If Gordon is worth 30 mill, James Johnson should command north of 15 mill? If thats the case, the Heat would need Waiters to opt out and a stretch provision of McRoberts. Or will that not be enough when counting the draft pick?

There is some strange magic with how the raises to minimum salaries (vet mins) and rookie contracts are made in the CBA. I believe, though I'm not 100% certain, that their amounts with respect to the cap are the old values and not the raised values (much higher) and that the NBA reimburses the difference. That's from articles about the CBA, not the document itself.

If this is not the case, I suspect our cap space is closer to 33 to 35, but I'll run the numbers this weekend and post here. Cool?