Butler trade rumor - KC Johnson update: pg 63

[TimRobbins]

If you're ever going to trade Butler, now is the time.

Or they could try and put a good team around him...you know...the logical thing to do when you have a top 10 player on your team.

Hence the word "IF".

[digitaldropoff]

Wasnt the point of us not trading Butler last offseason, was because ownership didnt want a full rebuild, only a partial? Whats changed?

The retooling of Rondo and Wade don't appear to be working at all....there's always hope going into a new season, but after seeing what they have, they know they'll have to do the same thing next year with no guarantee of landing anyone.

just as a rebuild doesn't guarantee squat either... you could land very good players like Wall or Irving and still suck...

There are no guarantees in the NBA unless you play for GS/Cavs....a constant lock for deep playoff contention. You can have the 2nd or 3rd pick and a big return of young talent, and they might not pan out. Or you trade for a star and they blow their knee out. Point is....I think the Bulls FO may have thrown the Wade/Rondo idea together as a last ditch effort, and if it didn't work, to blow it up and build through drafting and trading for young talent. Doesn't mean it's right or wrong, it just might be where their head is at.

[digitaldropoff]

If you're ever going to trade Butler, now is the time.

Or they could try and put a good team around him...you know...the logical thing to do when you have a top 10 player on your team.

Hence the word "IF".

Getting another primetime player is what you need to do if you only have one. Unless it's LBJ, it's hard to build around one guy with role players only. It can be done, but it's difficult to actually get another guy. The problem with the Bulls is they don't really have a package to land another big time player to play next to Butler.

[coldfish]

I have no issue with shopping Jimmy. He is at peak value and I'm not sure the team is going anywhere with him.

My concern is trading him for a crap package. Even guys like Wiggins are a joke. The only teams that could possibly make a deal with Chicago are probably Philly and Boston. Since neither is likely dealing, Jimmy is probably staying.

The logical thing to do here is to shop Jimmy with the rest of the team. If you can get a fair deal for Jimmy, then do it. If not, you basically dump everyone else, miss the playoffs and then come into next year with a few picks and massive capspace to build around Jimmy.

Why would anyone trade a guy MANY years younger that's not that far away from where Butler is now or was last year? If you look at the K.Love trade they got the #1 pick(although nobody said he was a great #1 pick), a bust of a #1 pick and Thad Young. This is probably why we kept hearing the FO wanted a great draft pick, great young player and a starter(Crowder/Bradley). With how things recently have went for Crowder(lashing out at fans for cheering Hayward) the Celtics may be more inclinded to include him in a package to Chicago. In reality something along Crowder, J.Brown and Brooklyn's pick next year is a pretty good haul especially if you can bring in a 3rd team and cash in on Crowder also. You'll also end up having a worse team which will move Chicago up in the lottery which in itself, a pretty damn good value(basically worth a mid 1st round pick... it took 2 to get into the lottery for McDermott).

Get your young guys, be high enough in the lottery to pick up one of those 3 or 4 top PGs in the draft and have most of your rebuilding done and try you can get a "star" to sign with them with a young talented cast around them. It would be very interesting to see how having a guy like D.Wade on the roster would help very talented rookies develop the right mindset/work habits while also getting a good amount of court time.

Butler is one of the best players in the NBA and he is locked up on a cheap long term deal. Normally, superstars are traded right before their deal expires and they get a supermax deal. There will be many players in the NBA next year who aren't nearly as good as Jimmy making nearly twice as much as him. That's why teams pay a king's ransom for him and that's why the Bulls should hold out for that.

Crowder (15.4 PER) and Brown (10.7) are crap. You are basically trading Butler for a lottery pick and filler. Given what a crapshoot that the lottery is, you probably are giving Butler away for nothing with that deal.

I would ask for both of Brooklyn's picks, a future Boston pick and the future Memphis pick from them. If they don't want that deal (which they won't) then they can pound salt.

Philly actually has the better package possible. Simmons or Embiid, a lottery pick and a non lottery pick.

[Mech Engineer]

Rondo and Wade might be the wrong fits next to Jimmy. But, they are not on long term contracts. It is not a big deal to reconfigure the roster. And, everything has not been negative.

Jimmy has learnt a lot of things from Wade and even Rondo. Wade, Rondo have the ball with them a lot. Jimmy is learning how to be a 1st option with guys who need the ball. There is always a positive way to look at it. Jimmy is learning the game to move into the next tier.

[veji1]

I have no issue with shopping Jimmy. He is at peak value and I'm not sure the team is going anywhere with him.

My concern is trading him for a crap package. Even guys like Wiggins are a joke. The only teams that could possibly make a deal with Chicago are probably Philly and Boston. Since neither is likely dealing, Jimmy is probably staying.

The logical thing to do here is to shop Jimmy with the rest of the team. If you can get a fair deal for Jimmy, then do it. If not, you basically dump everyone else, miss the playoffs and then come into next year with a few picks and massive capspace to build around Jimmy.

Why would anyone trade a guy MANY years younger that's not that far away from where Butler is now or was last year? If you look at the K.Love trade they got the #1 pick(although nobody said he was a great #1 pick), a bust of a #1 pick and Thad Young. This is probably why we kept hearing the FO wanted a great draft pick, great young player and a starter(Crowder/Bradley). With how things recently have went for Crowder(lashing out at fans for cheering Hayward) the Celtics may be more inclinded to include him in a package to Chicago. In reality something along Crowder, J.Brown and Brooklyn's pick next year is a pretty good haul especially if you can bring in a 3rd team and cash in on Crowder also. You'll also end up having a worse team which will move Chicago up in the lottery which in itself, a pretty damn good value(basically worth a mid 1st round pick... it took 2 to get into the lottery for McDermott).

Get your young guys, be high enough in the lottery to pick up one of those 3 or 4 top PGs in the draft and have most of your rebuilding done and try you can get a "star" to sign with them with a young talented cast around them. It would be very interesting to see how having a guy like D.Wade on the roster would help very talented rookies develop the right mindset/work habits while also getting a good amount of court time.

aaaaaaaand this is where your reasoning hits a roadblock.. how many stars, as in real stars, do that : sign with a young team that just got bereft of any semblance of culture, game, winning ? None. You get second rate stars that pull an Atlanta joe johnson on you and then you can complain on why the team does'nt go anywhere... With a team full of youngsters and capspace the only thing you can do is massively overpay for second or third rate stars. I mean in 2010 with had a great up and coming team with 24 years old like Deng, Noah and Taj already battle tested and led by the massive up and coming D Rose and we had to massively overpay to get Boozer while striking out on the real stars...This just doesn't work.

When you have a star you HOLD ONTO IT until you just can't anymore. Doing something different is just becoming falling head first into a wishfull thinking trap.

[Sebastian]

Embiid might have the highest trade value of anyone in the league aside from the obvious guys like LBJ and Curry. No way Philly even thinks about trading him for Jimmy. Simmons and a first they probably would think about long and hard.

[League Circles]

I have no issue with shopping Jimmy. He is at peak value and I'm not sure the team is going anywhere with him.

My concern is trading him for a crap package. Even guys like Wiggins are a joke. The only teams that could possibly make a deal with Chicago are probably Philly and Boston. Since neither is likely dealing, Jimmy is probably staying.

The logical thing to do here is to shop Jimmy with the rest of the team. If you can get a fair deal for Jimmy, then do it. If not, you basically dump everyone else, miss the playoffs and then come into next year with a few picks and massive capspace to build around Jimmy.

Why would anyone trade a guy MANY years younger that's not that far away from where Butler is now or was last year? If you look at the K.Love trade they got the #1 pick(although nobody said he was a great #1 pick), a bust of a #1 pick and Thad Young. This is probably why we kept hearing the FO wanted a great draft pick, great young player and a starter(Crowder/Bradley). With how things recently have went for Crowder(lashing out at fans for cheering Hayward) the Celtics may be more inclinded to include him in a package to Chicago. In reality something along Crowder, J.Brown and Brooklyn's pick next year is a pretty good haul especially if you can bring in a 3rd team and cash in on Crowder also. You'll also end up having a worse team which will move Chicago up in the lottery which in itself, a pretty damn good value(basically worth a mid 1st round pick... it took 2 to get into the lottery for McDermott).

Get your young guys, be high enough in the lottery to pick up one of those 3 or 4 top PGs in the draft and have most of your rebuilding done and try you can get a "star" to sign with them with a young talented cast around them. It would be very interesting to see how having a guy like D.Wade on the roster would help very talented rookies develop the right mindset/work habits while also getting a good amount of court time.

Butler is one of the best players in the NBA and he is locked up on a cheap long term deal. Normally, superstars are traded right before their deal expires and they get a supermax deal. There will be many players in the NBA next year who aren't nearly as good as Jimmy making nearly twice as much as him. That's why teams pay a king's ransom for him and that's why the Bulls should hold out for that.

Crowder (15.4 PER) and Brown (10.7) are crap. You are basically trading Butler for a lottery pick and filler. Given what a crapshoot that the lottery is, you probably are giving Butler away for nothing with that deal.

I would ask for both of Brooklyn's picks, a future Boston pick and the future Memphis pick from them. If they don't want that deal (which they won't) then they can pound salt.

Philly actually has the better package possible. Simmons or Embiid, a lottery pick and a non lottery pick.

Yes x 1000. The likelihood of getting a nothing player with a single top 5 pick is way too high for that to be the primary return. Gotta get 2 - 3 serious prospects/players to consider trading Jimmy.

[digitaldropoff]

Embiid might have the highest trade value of anyone in the league aside from the obvious guys like LBJ and Curry. No way Philly even thinks about trading him for Jimmy. Simmons and a first they probably would think about long and hard.

They won't move Embiid or Simmons....they will peddle off everything else they have, perhaps even this years pick...but they'll go into next season assuming Simmons and Embiid as the building blocks.

[Ice Man]

The likelihood of getting a nothing player with a single top 5 pick is way too high for that to be the primary return. Gotta get 2 - 3 serious prospects/players to consider trading Jimmy.

Jimmy is worth three Top 5 picks. Minimum. I know people think I'm joking because they overrate lottery picks, but I'm not.

Here, I will play a game. I will pick 3 numbers at random - 2, 3, 4. And three years at random, 2011, 2012, 2009. Off the top of my head I don't know what guys were drafted those years, in what order.

OK it turns out to be

Derrick Williams
Kanter
Tristan Thompson

MKG
Beal
Dion Waiters

Thabeet
Harden
Tyreke

See, I wasn't kidding.

[Proven_Winner]

I think Jimmy alone could get u a dame lillard or maybe john wall but would it be worth it?

[digitaldropoff]

The likelihood of getting a nothing player with a single top 5 pick is way too high for that to be the primary return. Gotta get 2 - 3 serious prospects/players to consider trading Jimmy.

Jimmy is worth three Top 5 picks. Minimum. I know people think I'm joking because they overrate lottery picks, but I'm not.

Here, I will play a game. I will pick 3 numbers at random - 2, 3, 4. And three years at random, 2011, 2012, 2009. Off the top of my head I don't know what guys were drafted those years, in what order.

OK it turns out to be

Derrick Williams
Kanter
Tristan Thompson

MKG
Beal
Dion Waiters

Thabeet
Harden
Tyreke

See, I wasn't kidding.

That's a fun game, but you don't take in account that you have terrible GM's making those picks consecutively. In you own game, you can clearly go through the draft order and find the right guys who are obviously better than who you mention. Draft picks aren't a lock, but that's on the team picking. Butler is worth one lotto pick if the Bulls pick the right guy....can't ask for three because you think your GM might **** up at least two picks.

[Overhere]

I think Jimmy alone could get u a dame lillard or maybe john wall but would it be worth it?

Nah, you're trading Jimmy for someone slightly worse (at best) and somewhat younger. All the arguments about being too good to get lottery picks but not good enough to do anything likely still apply, just your centerpiece is worse if you choose to build around him. That's not even including contract issues.

[Ice Man]

That's a fun game, but you don't take in account that you have terrible GM's making those picks consecutively. :

Nobody saw any differently at the time. Every GM in the NBA thought that Michael Olowokandi was better than Dirk, every GM thought Cody Zeller was better than Giannis, and every GM preferred Sam Bowie to Michael Jordan.

Jimmy Butler for a single draft pick would be a terrible trade, but fortunately GarPax won't do that.

[GetBuLLish]

The likelihood of getting a nothing player with a single top 5 pick is way too high for that to be the primary return. Gotta get 2 - 3 serious prospects/players to consider trading Jimmy.

Jimmy is worth three Top 5 picks. Minimum. I know people think I'm joking because they overrate lottery picks, but I'm not.

Here, I will play a game. I will pick 3 numbers at random - 2, 3, 4. And three years at random, 2011, 2012, 2009. Off the top of my head I don't know what guys were drafted those years, in what order.

OK it turns out to be

Derrick Williams
Kanter
Tristan Thompson

MKG
Beal
Dion Waiters

Thabeet
Harden
Tyreke

See, I wasn't kidding.

I've never understood the logic of looking at the exact player chosen at a given pick. If you're talking about the value of a certain pick, it makes more sense to look at what players were available at that spot. The assumption of trading for picks is that you actually make the right selection with those picks. Of course it won't be a good trade if you screw up with your selection.

So if you go with the 2012 draft using the 2, 3, and 4 picks, you could have gotten:

Damian Lillard
Draymond Green
Andre Drummond

2011:
Klay Thompson
Kawhi Leonard
Jimmy Butler

2009:

James Harden
Steph Curry
DeMar Derozan

[jnrjr79]

The likelihood of getting a nothing player with a single top 5 pick is way too high for that to be the primary return. Gotta get 2 - 3 serious prospects/players to consider trading Jimmy.

Jimmy is worth three Top 5 picks. Minimum. I know people think I'm joking because they overrate lottery picks, but I'm not.

Here, I will play a game. I will pick 3 numbers at random - 2, 3, 4. And three years at random, 2011, 2012, 2009. Off the top of my head I don't know what guys were drafted those years, in what order.

OK it turns out to be

Derrick Williams
Kanter
Tristan Thompson

MKG
Beal
Dion Waiters

Thabeet
Harden
Tyreke

See, I wasn't kidding.

That's a fun game, but you don't take in account that you have terrible GM's making those picks consecutively. In you own game, you can clearly go through the draft order and find the right guys who are obviously better than who you mention. Draft picks aren't a lock, but that's on the team picking. Butler is worth one lotto pick if the Bulls pick the right guy....can't ask for three because you think your GM might **** up at least two picks.

Thinking you can outsmart the draft or that bad picks are just a result of bad GMing is pure folly. Every year there are better players picked later than worse players, because it is impossible to accurately predict eventual performance.

If the Bulls got 3 top 5 picks, it would not at all be surprising if none of them turns into a Jimmy Butler-level player. Of course, there is also the small chance that a LeBron-type player will be selected, which is what people find so tantalizing. But thinking that all it takes is the Bulls to be smart and they'll get a franchise-altering superstar is just not reality.

[Overhere]

The likelihood of getting a nothing player with a single top 5 pick is way too high for that to be the primary return. Gotta get 2 - 3 serious prospects/players to consider trading Jimmy.

Jimmy is worth three Top 5 picks. Minimum. I know people think I'm joking because they overrate lottery picks, but I'm not.

Here, I will play a game. I will pick 3 numbers at random - 2, 3, 4. And three years at random, 2011, 2012, 2009. Off the top of my head I don't know what guys were drafted those years, in what order.

OK it turns out to be

Derrick Williams
Kanter
Tristan Thompson

MKG
Beal
Dion Waiters

Thabeet
Harden
Tyreke

See, I wasn't kidding.

That's a fun game, but you don't take in account that you have terrible GM's making those picks consecutively. In you own game, you can clearly go through the draft order and find the right guys who are obviously better than who you mention. Draft picks aren't a lock, but that's on the team picking. Butler is worth one lotto pick if the Bulls pick the right guy....can't ask for three because you think your GM might **** up at least two picks.

Well that's the thing, you'd be giving up a guaranteed borderline superstar/superstar for one chance at a potential superstar. How's that fair value? If there is a trade it'd be the Bulls giving up the guaranteed star for multiple chances at a potential superstar from a team that wants to compete now and can't afford to take multiple future swings (like Boston potentially). Since Jimmy isn't asking out as far as we know and he's still signed for 3 more years, the other teams don't have leverage.

[League Circles]

The likelihood of getting a nothing player with a single top 5 pick is way too high for that to be the primary return. Gotta get 2 - 3 serious prospects/players to consider trading Jimmy.

Jimmy is worth three Top 5 picks. Minimum. I know people think I'm joking because they overrate lottery picks, but I'm not.

Here, I will play a game. I will pick 3 numbers at random - 2, 3, 4. And three years at random, 2011, 2012, 2009. Off the top of my head I don't know what guys were drafted those years, in what order.

OK it turns out to be

Derrick Williams
Kanter
Tristan Thompson

MKG
Beal
Dion Waiters

Thabeet
Harden
Tyreke

See, I wasn't kidding.

That's a fun game, but you don't take in account that you have terrible GM's making those picks consecutively. In you own game, you can clearly go through the draft order and find the right guys who are obviously better than who you mention. Draft picks aren't a lock, but that's on the team picking. Butler is worth one lotto pick if the Bulls pick the right guy....can't ask for three because you think your GM might **** up at least two picks.

1. We can ask for whatever the hell we want

2. That's a lot of different GMs that you're calling terrible. Is our FO terrible?

Bottom line, picking the right guy is difficult. It is likely to fail, statistically. That's why you need multiple opportunities if you give up a player like Jimmy. If no team wants to pay the price we need, then we keep him.

[League Circles]

The likelihood of getting a nothing player with a single top 5 pick is way too high for that to be the primary return. Gotta get 2 - 3 serious prospects/players to consider trading Jimmy.

Jimmy is worth three Top 5 picks. Minimum. I know people think I'm joking because they overrate lottery picks, but I'm not.

Here, I will play a game. I will pick 3 numbers at random - 2, 3, 4. And three years at random, 2011, 2012, 2009. Off the top of my head I don't know what guys were drafted those years, in what order.

OK it turns out to be

Derrick Williams
Kanter
Tristan Thompson

MKG
Beal
Dion Waiters

Thabeet
Harden
Tyreke

See, I wasn't kidding.

I've never understood the logic of looking at the exact player chosen at a given pick. If you're talking about the value of a certain pick, it makes more sense to look at what players were available at that spot. The assumption of trading for picks is that you actually make the right selection with those picks. Of course it won't be a good trade if you screw up with your selection.

So if you go with the 2012 draft using the 2, 3, and 4 picks, you could have gotten:

Damian Lillard
Draymond Green
Andre Drummond

2011:
Klay Thompson
Kawhi Leonard
Jimmy Butler

2009:

James Harden
Steph Curry
DeMar Derozan

It's a poor assumption that one will make the best selections. Even for the best GMs, whoever they are. Think of it like a great 3 point shooter with the ball late in a game needing a bucket. Just cause he may be the game's best shooter doesn't mean he should assume he'll make a three if he shoots it. He's got to try to maximize the odds that it will go in. So he's got to work for a layup or easier basket than a three for somebody.

So even the best GM, which we most likely don't have, should not assume that he can make the right choice with one shot.

[Ice Man]

So if you go with the 2012 draft using the 2, 3, and 4 picks, you could have gotten:

Damian Lillard
Draymond Green
Andre Drummond

2011:
Klay Thompson
Kawhi Leonard
Jimmy Butler

2009:

James Harden
Steph Curry
DeMar Derozan

Lend me your time machine. I'll use it to pick stocks, not players, and I'll pay you $100 million per year for its usage. Deal?