Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VII - Defense Wins Championships

[rcklsscognition]

I doubt it happens but why and when teams call it quits on a season is some of the most interesting parts of the sport.

[npiper17]

Even this past offseason, fans here were stating that the Magic were in better position for the future than the Celtics. I was like . . . "Wwwwhhhuuuuuutttt????"

If only. They have a very bright future and with the likely addition of Hayward plus a top 5 pick plus another year of Thomas on the second best value deal in the league (which will become the best value deal in the league after Curry re-signs), they are set.

As the Cavs showed last night, it only takes an injury or two and you can be in with a chance of losing to the Warriors in the Finals!

Eh, Celtics are in line for their own troubles. All their good value contracts will run out real soon, and they'll have to re-sign guys at proper market value. If they land a top pick this year, it's likely to be a PG, the same position where their current best player plays, and where their #6 draft pick Marcus Smart plays. They have their #3 pick playing only 13mpg right now, behind Jae Crowder, so he's likely gone if they want to move Brown into a starting role at some point.

So unless they're able to turn those assets into drafted stars (Smart doesn't seem like one, and it's too soon to know about Brown, who knows who they end up with in this next draft), or trade them for a star (apart from Cousins, who else do they really have a shot at?), they'll eventually settle into a middling team, same as the rest of us. Even if they draft a stud this year, it's going to take him 2-3 years until he's good enough to carry them to the playoffs, during which time Horford and Thomas only get older, their good value teammates disappear as they all start signing deals too big to remain on the squad, and suddenly you look more like 2016-17 Portland Trailblazers than a legit top 3 team in a conference.

Also, on paper they're looking at a #1 pick. On paper we should've had a #1 pick and a #3 pick (Embiid?). The Knicks should've had a #2 pick, but they got #4 (and still got the 2nd best player in the draft). Boston's appeal is their potential, but unless that potential is realised, it becomes another plodding rebuild.

The thing is they're not really rebuilding.
They're pretty much set for a top 3 spot in the East (perhaps top 4 at worst) and have the chance to add a high impact guy from a position of strength. Sure it might not be the top pick but a top 7-8 pick in this draft is a big chance to add a quality guy.

Also you can't really worry about positions of need when drafting that high. If they get number 1 they're not going to turn down Fultz because they have another year of Thomas. They have 2 great assets to move on in another deal if they wish. The Brown / Crowder problem is a great one to have. I don't see how too much talent can be seen as a negative especially when Crowder is on such a good contract.

But overall, as I alluded to at the end of my previous post, I agree that these moves won't add up to championship contender status. Ultimately it's a two horse race for the next few years unless Durant signs elsewhere this summer. This is partly why I think it's an ideal time to focus on this year's strong draft and get ready to contend when the current contender's windows start to close.

[Bensational]

TOR has to be worried about being able to beat the Cavs. If I was their GM, I would be on the phone with the Magic offering everything they can offer to get Ibaka.

Why? They'll likely get Millsap for much cheaper. Achieves a similar result.

[BadMofoPimp]

TOR has to be worried about being able to beat the Cavs. If I was their GM, I would be on the phone with the Magic offering everything they can offer to get Ibaka.

Why? They'll likely get Millsap for much cheaper. Achieves a similar result.

As the Raptors fans have said, they could just sign Ibaka this summer.

[j-ragg]

TOR has to be worried about being able to beat the Cavs. If I was their GM, I would be on the phone with the Magic offering everything they can offer to get Ibaka.

Why? They'll likely get Millsap for much cheaper. Achieves a similar result.

As the Raptors fans have said, they could just sign Ibaka this summer.

They won't have any space to sign him. But Millsap would be cheaper than Ibaka via trade.

[BadMofoPimp]

Why? They'll likely get Millsap for much cheaper. Achieves a similar result.

As the Raptors fans have said, they could just sign Ibaka this summer.

They won't have any space to sign him. But Millsap would be cheaper than Ibaka via trade.

Somewhat true. Yet, any team can free up money to sign someone if they truly want them.

[j-ragg]

As the Raptors fans have said, they could just sign Ibaka this summer.

They won't have any space to sign him. But Millsap would be cheaper than Ibaka via trade.

Somewhat true. Yet, any team can free up money to sign someone if they truly want them.

You're right. If they don't want to re sign their best player and renounce his rights they can sign Ibaka, I shouldn't have spoken in such absolutes.

[BadMofoPimp]

They won't have any space to sign him. But Millsap would be cheaper than Ibaka via trade.

Somewhat true. Yet, any team can free up money to sign someone if they truly want them.

You're right. If they don't want to re sign their best player and renounce his rights they can sign Ibaka, I shouldn't have spoken in such absolutes.

Not with this salary cap. They can finagle out a way to keep DeRozen, Lowry, Val and Ibaka just like Warriors are keeping Steph, Klay, Green and Durant.

[Blue_and_Whte]

Oh look we "can't play Payton and Biz together", yet they are both starting tonight.

Wild.

Of course you cant discredit Bismack's impact on defense by just being on the floor, but imo the fact that Nik literally does everything else better while still playing solid defense gives him the advantage. People can try to put blinders on but Biyombo's defense isn't as impactful as people are trying to make it out to be. Our "Starter" played 20 minutes because he wasn't doing anything on defense or offense.

Here are the defensive dashboards for both centers so people can have something to reference. I don't think the drop off is much of a difference. But at least we have something people can use to form opinions.

Bismack Biyombo

http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202687/defense-dash/

Nik Vucevic

http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202696/defense-dash/

Like I've said before. You cant point at all these teams with one dimensional defensive centers as "the model of winning" while ignoring the fact that they've had elite wing players as teammates. I'm not opposed to trading Nik if it's an actual improvement, but as currently constructed losing one of only two players that can create offense and our best center doesn't make us better.

I am really done with Biz. He was brought in to do one thing and he cant even do that right. I could careless if he scores 2 points, but for God sake grab a rebound and protect the effing paint like your supposed to.

He cant do that against centers with size. Other fan bases that have watched him play warned us of that numerous times including Raptor fans. We fell for his one good playoff performance.

Again, this is my problem with people who just use stats to base their arguments on defense. The Magic are a lot more switchy with Biz in than Vuc. Vogel starts him for a reason. He can guard anyone on the floor. He even played next to Vuc for a while last night and covered some wings at times. a lot of the stuff he does is not going to show up in the stat sheet.

Im not just using stats. I said that his impact by just being on the floor cant be ignored. Obviously how we play and how we're defended is different with Biz vs Vooch. On the flip side you cant just ignore the fact that Niks defense has made a huge improvement this season. There's validity on both sides. The fact is, a lot of people banked on Bismacks defensive impact to mitigate is complete lack of any offensive game and that's just not the case. We're playing 4 on 5.

He did not have a great game last night, but from a schematic perspective the Magic can do a lot more on defense with him out there. The problem is not the C's. The problem is that we have 4 guys who can switch effectively- Elf/AG/Biz and Ibaka. To really run that defense effectively, you need to go all in with 8 or 9 deep who can do it.

I'm not sure how to respond to this. I agree with you I just don't see how this justifies downgrading the center position for a slight upgrade on the wing.

Additionally the model of winning IS elite wings. That has been my point all along. We need to upgrade our wing play. While I am not expecting to land Lebron in a deal, the Magic need more 2 way wing players. They need to create offense from the wing more than the paint.

Ok but Jae Crowder isn't elite, Rudy Gay isn't elite. Curry,Durant, Westbrook, Chris Paul, Lebron are elite.

I see similarities in the tier of players we have starting at PG/SG to that of the Raptors who opted to let Biz walk in favor of valanciunas whos similar to Nik and they're winning. I understand your point about rim protection but you have to understand that not all teams are built the same.

A lot of the stuff you are saying is basically in line with what I am. The reason the whole thing is so confusing is the Magic simply have no real identity and we are not sure the direction of the team. Is it going to be a switchy small lineup, a big old school plodder? Right now it is a big lineup that tries to run the floor and as a result has inconsistent energy night to night.

[/quote]I think so too except that you're undervaluing Nik's value on offense on this particular team. I feel like you're trying to force feed a concept that, while effective on certain teams, wont work on this team as currently constructed. If Nik were a liability on defense and our team defense fell off a cliff when he came into the game then I would understand, but that's not the case.

[Jameerthefear]

TOR has to be worried about being able to beat the Cavs. If I was their GM, I would be on the phone with the Magic offering everything they can offer to get Ibaka.

Why? They'll likely get Millsap for much cheaper. Achieves a similar result.

As the Raptors fans have said, they could just sign Ibaka this summer.

They have to resign Lowry so nope

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

[Blue_and_Whte]

Looks like the other team in Florida is about to get them another young stud in the draft while we're stuck in mediocrity.

Im not a fan of tanking this season but I wouldn't be surprised if Henny traded away some core guys for another shot at drafting. I just think he may be in a bad position where management wants to see progress but he might be eyeballing I higher draft pick. Tough spot to be in.

[PennytoShaq]

I don't undervalue Nik's offense. He is very good. I just do not think paint focused offense is going to get us anywhere. We have been leaning on that for 4 years now. Since Nik is one of our best trade assets, it only makes sense that we upgrade our wing talent with him as a trade piece. If we can do that without trading Nik, that's fine by me, but if the Magic truly want to be a team that breaks out and runs like they say, Biyombo makes more sense if they can add more pieces around him.

[Mc-o]

Looks like the other team in Florida is about to get them another young stud in the draft while we're stuck in mediocrity.

Im not a fan of tanking this season but I wouldn't be surprised if Henny traded away some core guys for another shot at drafting. I just think he may be in a bad position where management wants to see progress but he might be eyeballing I higher draft pick. Tough spot to be in.

I think this upcoming road trip is going to be a big trip in terms of what dorection ther are going to go

[BadMofoPimp]

Why? They'll likely get Millsap for much cheaper. Achieves a similar result.

As the Raptors fans have said, they could just sign Ibaka this summer.

They have to resign Lowry so nope

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

If GS can sign Durant, they can find a way if they truly wanted to. So yes, a good GM can find a way.

[UCFJayBird]

Pretty sure they could find someone to take Carroll or Ross if they really wanted Ibaka. But they would probably have to dump one of them to have enough to sign Ibaka before resigning Lowry.

edit: If Toronto wanted they could probably trade Ross and filler to the Magic for Jeff Green. We get instant shooting, they get an expiring and more cap space for the summer. Not sure they're willing to part with Ross. Caroll is less intriguing but another interesting option.

Then again Toronto is 24-11, not sure they want to mess with their team right now.

[Jameerthefear]

As the Raptors fans have said, they could just sign Ibaka this summer.

They have to resign Lowry so nope

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

If GS can sign Durant, they can find a way if they truly wanted to. So yes, a good GM can find a way.

They would have to trade a lot of players with no money coming back for basically nothing. Even then I'm not sure they could do it. Lowry will get maxed and Ibaka would get near the max. It's a way more reasonable option to just make a trade now. They lose more by waiting until the summer.

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

[j-ragg]

As the Raptors fans have said, they could just sign Ibaka this summer.

They have to resign Lowry so nope

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

If GS can sign Durant, they can find a way if they truly wanted to. So yes, a good GM can find a way.

Steph making less than Vuc makes creates that possibility. And they'll have his bird rights so he can be their 200 million dollar man.

Val makes 8 figures. DeRozan just signed for 140 million. Lowry is probably going to sign for 150-200 million. The Ws got extremely lucky, not a comparable situation.

[Blue_and_Whte]

Man , it's a shame Mario isn't getting playing time because offensively his skillset is what the team needs .

Well in December he's shooting 42% from 3 which is encouraging but that's largely during garbage time.

That's all he is allowed to play lol

Maybe that's all he deserves to play. When he EARNS it he'll play.

[warren4prez]

Who says NO
http://www.screencast.com/t/WSGtbstHj

Orlando:
Outgoing DJ Augustine
Incoming: Trade Exception

Cleveland:
Outgoing: Trade Exception
Incoming: DJ Augustine

[Magic_Johnny12]

Who says NO
http://www.screencast.com/t/WSGtbstHj

Orlando:
Outgoing DJ Augustine
Incoming: Trade Exception

Cleveland:
Outgoing: Trade Exception
Incoming: DJ Augustine

Umm Orlando

The PG position is one of our weakest position in terms of production, unless another trade is to follow up for another PG this makes no sense.