Butler trade rumor - KC Johnson update: pg 63

[JerrySloan]

minalt wrote:

I understand that. I really do. But if you look at the amount of times that players have actually become something in this league. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE HISTORY of the NBA. It just about NEVER happens.

480 out of 499 players in this league are better than Bobby Portis.

Sorry but both of your comments are pure hyperbole.

But, if the first one WAS true, than ANY trade of an in his prime true All-Star for anything but a different in his prime true All-Star is a mistake.

[Stratmaster]

So called 'ISO' scorers are what tends to win NBA championships. At least before the era of superteams.

People would have called 06 Wade that too when he was dominating the 06 Finals.

It's not 2006...

Huh? Yeah *Wade* is old now that doesn't mean Butler is.

In 2006 wade had Shaq. How many teams today do you see salivating over iso midrange scorers and 320 pound scoring centers?

Sent from my SM-G920V using RealGM mobile app

[MrSparkle]

minalt wrote:

I understand that. I really do. But if you look at the amount of times that players have actually become something in this league. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE HISTORY of the NBA. It just about NEVER happens.

480 out of 499 players in this league are better than Bobby Portis.

Sorry but both of your comments are pure hyperbole.

But, if the first one WAS true, than ANY trade of an in his prime true All-Star for anything but a different in his prime true All-Star is a mistake.

I dunno. I'm on board with the call on Portis.

However, I'll accept that he can become surprisingly better by slowing the **** down, watching film, and working on his shooting. His shooting form is not bad at all, so he can become a stretch-4 in the league... and get by as a half-reasonable player like Niko did so far... just by reputation.

But his defensive errors are just insanely high. He needs to try and improve his decision-making on both ends.

Right now, he certainly is one of the worst NBA players in the NBA imo. It's rare that you see a guy check in, and the other team just immediately starts running up the score in a shocking RPM swing.

We actually saw it with Doug the first 2 years too, so there is hope. Doug's defense can still be a problem, but all in all he's obviously fared better.

[BloodyQ]

People here actually want Wiggins?

He's playing worse under Thibs....and how often does that happen?

[MrSparkle]

Also, Wade's been endorsing Jimmy pretty heavily. Kind of surprised that his opinion doesn't mean much to the "trade Jimmy" people.

Perhaps Riley should've traded Wade after the Heat hit a dead end with a declined Shaq and Antoine Walker. That Bulls sweep was pretty embarrassing after all. And Wade was already turning 28.

[Bulls03]

Also, Wade's been endorsing Jimmy pretty heavily. Kind of surprised that his opinion doesn't mean much to the "trade Jimmy" people.

Perhaps Riley should've traded Wade after the Heat hit a dead end with a declined Shaq and Antoine Walker. That Bulls sweep was pretty embarrassing after all. And Wade was already turning 28.

Yea I remember that. I believe Wade was injured rushed back and played against us injured. He even had all those injuries which would've given them an excuse to trade him and we don't have that with Jimmy as of now. Not that Jimmy is anywhere near as good as that Wade or accomplished as much as he had at that point but, the point still stands. I think Wade was 26 then so his age and Jimmys are nearly identical.

[LordBaldric]

People here actually want Wiggins?

He's playing worse under Thibs....and how often does that happen?

A lot of the Wolves players are playing worse under Thibs this season. Frankly this season Thibs has been sort of a disaster.

[ArizonaBullsFan]

I think people are highly overrating top-5 picks and forgetting that great players are found all throughout the draft.

The following is the current top-20 in PER, plus the 6 guys who were All-NBA last season and aren't on that list, and their draft positions:

Russell Westbrook 4
Giannis Antetokounmpo 15
James Harden 3
Kevin Durant 2
Kawhi Leonard 15
Anthony Davis 1
Isaiah Thomas 60
DeMarcus Cousins 5
Chris Paul 4
LeBron James 1
Jimmy Butler 30
Kevin Love 5
DeMar DeRozan 9
Enes Kanter 3
Damian Lillard 6
Nikola Jokic 41
John Wall 1
Kyle Lowry 24
Stephen Curry 7
Kemba Walker 9

DeAndre Jordan 35
Draymond Green 35
Klay Thompson 11
Andre Drummond 9
LaMarcus Aldridge 2
Paul George 10

Only 11 of 26 (42.3%) were top-5 picks
8 of 26 (30.8%) were non-lottery picks
13 of 26 (50%) were drafted 9th or lower

There is simply no way in hell you trade Butler unless it's a Herschel Walker over-the-top trade.

Lavine, Dunn, Dieng, MIN 2017 & 2019

Crowder, Brown, Smart, BKN 2017 & 2018, MEM 2019

Noel, Saric, PHI 2017, LAL 2017, SAC 2019, PHI 2019

Basically, you don't move Jimmy until after you try this summer to add a Hayward, Paul, Griffin, Ibaka... moving Lopez for an expiring hopefully... seeing how efficient Jimmy is now that Doug and Niko are turning the corner and getting back to their normal production levels... see if Wade will take less money to come back here next year in a Ginobili role, allowing us to add a max-level FA plus an above-average starter while resigning Niko and Felicio...

Say what you will about GarPax, last time they had a superstar they did a pretty damn good job in July of 2010 of filling around him with free agents, even though they struck out on the big fish. And unlike 2010, we now have a superstar who actually believes in actively recruiting other top-line players...

[BullsFTW]

Kap and Nick Fridell were saying if Thibs called offering Wiggins and Dunn you'd have to do it. I agree with them that no way do you turn that deal down if Thibs was dumb enough to offer it.

If it includes the Wolves 2017 1st, it's something to consider.

[RedBulls23]

People here actually want Wiggins?

He's playing worse under Thibs....and how often does that happen?

A lot of the Wolves players are playing worse under Thibs this season. Frankly this season Thibs has been sort of a disaster.

Maybe it says more about the players than Thibs?

Might be that these players weren't ready or knew how hard they would have to work. I think not having vets doesn't help either.

[RedBulls23]

You're barking up the wrong tree. Having a 'real' superstar would not make the difference on this mediocre talent team. We'd win 2-5 more depending which one it is, and still get dismissed in the 2nd round.

That's fine for this year, but having a number 1 superstar in the NBA makes the turnaround easier.

this. I want to see if Jimmy can hold burden of high usage and elite efficiency. If he can then he is even better than Westbrook and on pair with Harden. And that means he is superstar. For now he is fake superstar.

Jimmy is the first option, and is defended like the first option. His efficeny remains high. Actually, it's improved this year. Also, he's top 10 in ppg.

You keep moving the goal post on why Jimmy shouldn't be considered a superstar.

[LordBaldric]

People here actually want Wiggins?

He's playing worse under Thibs....and how often does that happen?

A lot of the Wolves players are playing worse under Thibs this season. Frankly this season Thibs has been sort of a disaster.

Maybe it says more about the players than Thibs?

Might be that these players weren't ready or knew how hard they would have to work. I think not having vets doesn't help either.

Perhaps so, but whatever the cause so far the results have been poor. They were doing way better the last part of last season with Sam frickin' Mitchell at the helm.

[RedBulls23]

A lot of the Wolves players are playing worse under Thibs this season. Frankly this season Thibs has been sort of a disaster.

Maybe it says more about the players than Thibs?

Might be that these players weren't ready or knew how hard they would have to work. I think not having vets doesn't help either.

Perhaps so, but whatever the cause so far the results have been poor. They were doing way better the last part of last season with Sam frickin' Mitchell at the helm.

Thibs system is hard. I remember Noah having trouble figuring it out the first season, but having vets like Deng, boozer, Kurt Thomas, Korver etc. definitely helped.

[LordBaldric]

Maybe it says more about the players than Thibs?

Might be that these players weren't ready or knew how hard they would have to work. I think not having vets doesn't help either.

Perhaps so, but whatever the cause so far the results have been poor. They were doing way better the last part of last season with Sam frickin' Mitchell at the helm.

Thibs system is hard. I remember Noah having trouble figuring it out the first season, but having vets like Deng, boozer, Kurt Thomas, Korver etc. definitely helped.

I hope you are right...

[MC3]

That's fine for this year, but having a number 1 superstar in the NBA makes the turnaround easier.

this. I want to see if Jimmy can hold burden of high usage and elite efficiency. If he can then he is even better than Westbrook and on pair with Harden. And that means he is superstar. For now he is fake superstar.

Jimmy is the first option, and is defended like the first option. His efficeny remains high. Actually, it's improved this year. Also, he's top 10 in ppg.

You keep moving the goal post on why Jimmy shouldn't be considered a superstar.

Cause true superstars are moving the goal of what means to be superstar.

[NADROJ]

I think people are highly overrating top-5 picks and forgetting that great players are found all throughout the draft.

The following is the current top-20 in PER, plus the 6 guys who were All-NBA last season and aren't on that list, and their draft positions:

Russell Westbrook 4
Giannis Antetokounmpo 15
James Harden 3
Kevin Durant 2
Kawhi Leonard 15
Anthony Davis 1
Isaiah Thomas 60
DeMarcus Cousins 5
Chris Paul 4
LeBron James 1
Jimmy Butler 30
Kevin Love 5
DeMar DeRozan 9
Enes Kanter 3
Damian Lillard 6
Nikola Jokic 41
John Wall 1
Kyle Lowry 24
Stephen Curry 7
Kemba Walker 9

DeAndre Jordan 35
Draymond Green 35
Klay Thompson 11
Andre Drummond 9
LaMarcus Aldridge 2
Paul George 10

Only 11 of 26 (42.3%) were top-5 picks
8 of 26 (30.8%) were non-lottery picks
13 of 26 (50%) were drafted 9th or lower

There is simply no way in hell you trade Butler unless it's a Herschel Walker over-the-top trade.

The fact that, in a draft that consists of 30 1st round picks and 60 overall, 42.3% of the players on your list were picked in the Top 5 is extremely significant. It's essentially the exact type of statistic anyone making the opposite argument would make to show the immense value of a Top 5 pick.

[pipfan]

One factor that we should take into account is how top heavy the league is right now. I would bet on a 2018 GS-Clev final for sure. The league has rarely had 2 teams that are SO much better than the field. That has to factor into the decision, since Butler is in his peak years right now

Also, the new CBA makes it harder for FA's to leave

[Rerisen]

It's not 2006...

Huh? Yeah *Wade* is old now that doesn't mean Butler is.

In 2006 wade had Shaq. How many teams today do you see salivating over iso midrange scorers and 320 pound scoring centers?

So its the league has changed argument. I don't buy it, Harden, Wade, MJ, all these guys still drew fouls in the post-season, and that remains valuable no matter if teams are shooting 50 threes a game.

SA goes ISO late with Kawhi more than they ever used to with the Big Three, and when push came to shove, Curry pulled shots out of his rear end to win GS the title in 2015.

We aren't going to build a team of musketeers where every shot is some brilliant executed system offense. You need a closer and guy who can just break his man down to get a bucket, you don't want to overdo that, but I don't think Jimmy does very often (Wade a little) but most of that would go away with a proper cast.

[coldfish]

I think people are highly overrating top-5 picks and forgetting that great players are found all throughout the draft.

The following is the current top-20 in PER, plus the 6 guys who were All-NBA last season and aren't on that list, and their draft positions:

Russell Westbrook 4
Giannis Antetokounmpo 15
James Harden 3
Kevin Durant 2
Kawhi Leonard 15
Anthony Davis 1
Isaiah Thomas 60
DeMarcus Cousins 5
Chris Paul 4
LeBron James 1
Jimmy Butler 30
Kevin Love 5
DeMar DeRozan 9
Enes Kanter 3
Damian Lillard 6
Nikola Jokic 41
John Wall 1
Kyle Lowry 24
Stephen Curry 7
Kemba Walker 9

DeAndre Jordan 35
Draymond Green 35
Klay Thompson 11
Andre Drummond 9
LaMarcus Aldridge 2
Paul George 10

Only 11 of 26 (42.3%) were top-5 picks
8 of 26 (30.8%) were non-lottery picks
13 of 26 (50%) were drafted 9th or lower

There is simply no way in hell you trade Butler unless it's a Herschel Walker over-the-top trade.

The fact that, in a draft that consists of 30 1st round picks and 60 overall, 42.3% of the players on your list were picked in the Top 5 is extremely significant. It's essentially the exact type of statistic anyone making the opposite argument would make to show the immense value of a Top 5 pick.

Good point but the people on that list go back 10 years. There have been 50 top 5 picks roughly taken over that period. So, only 11 of the past 50 top 5 picks are currently in the top 26 for PER.

Basically, drafting in the top 5 gives you a better chance of landing a very good player but it doesn't give you a good chance of getting one. Drafting outside the top 5 gives you a very poor chance of landing a top 26 player, but doesn't completely eliminate the opportunity.

[Ice Man]

I think people are highly overrating top-5 picks and forgetting that great players are found all throughout the draft.

Yep. Odds are pretty good with #1s, after that it's a crapshoot. The #2s from 1980-2009 who could anchor a team, a la Butler -

Isiah Thomas
Gary Payton
Alonzo Mourning
LMA (not really, but I'm being nice)
Kevin Durant

That's 5 guys in 30 years, or 17%. Yeah sure, better than the #8 or #18 slots, but it's a gradually sliding scale. The NBA GMs are largely in consensus about what the draft order should be -- but that doesn't mean they actually know what the players will become. They very much don't.