2017 FA (Wiz have MLE)

[pcbothwel]

Looking at this list, I see a number of interesting names that I will keep an eye on throughout the season:

PG
Patty Mills - Great backup PG, but he will probably be looking for more then the MLE or at the very least a chance to start

SG
CJ Miles - One of the last straight from HS players that has proven to be a solid all around player. Lights out 3 point shooter than score in multiple ways while playing strong defense. He turns 30 in the spring, which is the only reason he would get the MLE instead of 4/75M someone 3-5 years younger would get for the same production. No injury history and only 13k minutes on the tires.

Ian Clark - 4 year player from Belmont that has shown to be a solid all around scorer that doesnt turn the ball over, but he doesnt get to the line and his improvement so far could be product of SSS/GSW. Keep an eye on

SF
No one stands out and we have Otto and Oubre

PF
Patrick Patterson - Top 10 recruit out of HS and played with Wall at Kentucky. Has turned into a real stretch 4 that doesnt hurt you with TOV or fouls. 5th in RPM according to ESPN and has playoff experience with Toronto. Could probably get more money (4/60M would be my guess), but you never know sometimes

Terrance Jones - Another highly recruited PF from Kentucky, but has not shown he can space the floor. His defense is pretty good, but I dont see him as a better player than Morris and he seems to have a lot of the same Strengths and Weaknesses. Probably not a good fit.

Mike Muscala - My personal favorite and someone I really liked in the 2013 draft. Can score in many ways including from 3. Has cut down on his fouling a really looks solid defending either 4's or 5's. The minute FA starts I would through the MLE and pray he accepts. Might be under appreciated because of:
- Skin color: white bigs can be viewed as nonathletic if they dont blow you away with dunks.
- Pedigree: Not highly recruited, played 4 years at Bucknell, was a 2nd round pick, and is not a starter.
- Team: The Hawks have been good the last couple years, but they didnt get national recognitation and played a less exciting, cerebral ball/player movement type of basketball (Coach Bud)

C
Dewayne Dedmon - Should of been signed instead of Mahinmi ... Plays great defense, scores efficiently and rebounds. But does not get to the line that often and fouls too much

Jeff Withey - Much like Dedmon, Withey is a defense first player that scores efficiently and blocks shots. But he doesnt rebound well.

Both of these guys (along with Muscala) are at the top of the list for FA and would then trade Gortat in a heart beat. Withey has a higher likelihood of being available due to Utah having Gobert and many other FA-to-be. Gun to my head... I probably take Withey over Dedmon due to shot blocking and FT shooting, but I would need to dig deeper to give final assessment.

Well... All yours folks

CJ Miles and Patterson look like perfect options. Really want Mills but he won't play behind Wall. We're not signing any centers with that much money tied to 3 of them already.

Mills/Patterson/Miles would be good choices if available for the MLE. Other than that I think the best option is to split the MLE - I think Muscala may be available for a fraction of the MLE.

No way he gets a fractions. The MLE is 4/36M (9M per) and these are the players that signed deals in that price range last year.

Etwaun Moore - 4/34M
Bayless - 3/27M
Gerald Henderson - 2/18M
Dwight Powell - 4/37M
Dellavedova - 4/38M
Al Jefferson - 3/30M
Jared Dudley - 3/30M

Muscala is younger and better than most of those guys, plus the cap is 10% higher...
Powell seems to be the best comparison in age, position, production, etc. But even then, Powell was an RFA and was not quite as good as Muscala this year.
I mean, his rebounding could be better, but how many FA 25 y/o Big men are out there that can play D and shoot 45% from 3 and 72% from 0-3ft. I give him the Full MLE with no question on Day 1 and hope he takes it.

[gesa2]

Pickins' are awfully thin at the point. If backup PG can't be filled any other way, maybe we go for Collison - even though he'll probably cost the full MLE. Let's not go for Ramon Sessions - who's back around his career norm in scoring efficiency with a 42% eFG and a steep decline in production - though he is higher in assists this season.

Withey's playing well for the 4th straight year and still doesn't get much PT.

Sessions played off ball a lot last year, which likely explains some of both the TS% (catch and shoot jumpers) and the lower assists. Maybe he's a case for the John Wall Effect, he was putrid with Sacramento before we got him. Regardless he's getting older.
I'd be surprised if we were able to get Collison for the role or the money.

[gesa2]

I hadn't added up the numbers for next year, wow. So with the lux tax situation we really have zero chance of getting in the Milsap auction either, right?
Makes keeping our pick even more important.

[pcbothwel]

Unless we dump salary I think using the MLE is out the question because it will put us over the luxury tax. If we have to give the max to Otto, based on conservative cap estimates, we may be right at or just over the luxury tax line without making any additional moves.

Fact is Ernie really screwed the pooch this past off-season. The $106 million we gave to Mahinmi, Nicholson & Smith has put us in the position where we may have to dump Gortat or give up an asset to remove one of our bad contracts off the cap this summer.

This year, we had the following cap numbers:
Salary cap: $94.1M
Luxtax threshold: $113.3M
4-year vet max contract: $22.1M

Applying those same ratios to the projected cap next year, we get:
Salary cap: $103M
Luxtax threshold: $124M
4-year vet max contract: $24.2M

Our committed salary next year for the 9 players under contract is $96.0M. Assuming no trades this year, we will add to that total a 1st round pick in the teens, which will cost about $1.5M. So that brings our payroll up to $97.5M.

If Otto gets a full max contract, we will have just $2.3M in luxtax room to add another player. We're also going to need 2 or 3 minimum salary vets to get our roster size up to 13-14, so there is no effective luxtax room if Otto gets the max.

So ultimately, our flexibility to add free agents will come solely from whatever disparity there is between Otto's actual contract and the $24.2M max salary. If Otto signs a $16M a year contract, then we'll have the full MLE. If Otto signs a $20M contract, then we'll have $4.2M available.

Agree with both of you. my hope would be to offer Otto the Giannis contract (4/100M) on day one. He might say no, but I doubt it. If he does I would just wait and match.
I always thought the best way to get better, utilize the MLE, and stay out of Tax is to use the MLE on Muscala, Dedmon, or Withey (If we draft Hartenstein, Rabb or Leaf we sign a C...If we draft Jeanne or Patton, sign Muscala).
Assuming Mahinmi proves to be healthy and Smith continues to show he can handle 10 MPG, this frees us up to trade Gortat for a cheaper asset in the back court.

[queridiculo]

Good thing Ernie has such a great track record with the MLE.

[nate33]

Agree with both of you. my hope would be to offer Otto the Giannis contract (4/100M) on day one. He might say no, but I doubt it. If he does I would just wait and match.
I always thought the best way to get better, utilize the MLE, and stay out of Tax is to use the MLE on Muscala, Dedmon, or Withey (If we draft Hartenstein, Rabb or Leaf we sign a C...If we draft Jeanne or Patton, sign Muscala).
Assuming Mahinmi proves to be healthy and Smith continues to show he can handle 10 MPG, this frees us up to trade Gortat for a cheaper asset in the back court.

Why on Earth would your opening offer be a full max deal? Or did you mean 5/100M?

I definitely would not offer Porter a max deal. I'd probably match a max deal if someone else offered it, but I'd be aiming for a deal averaging around $18M a year

[pcbothwel]

Agree with both of you. my hope would be to offer Otto the Giannis contract (4/100M) on day one. He might say no, but I doubt it. If he does I would just wait and match.
I always thought the best way to get better, utilize the MLE, and stay out of Tax is to use the MLE on Muscala, Dedmon, or Withey (If we draft Hartenstein, Rabb or Leaf we sign a C...If we draft Jeanne or Patton, sign Muscala).
Assuming Mahinmi proves to be healthy and Smith continues to show he can handle 10 MPG, this frees us up to trade Gortat for a cheaper asset in the back court.

Why on Earth would your opening offer be a full max deal? Or did you mean 5/100M?

I definitely would not offer Porter a max deal. I'd probably match a max deal if someone else offered it, but I'd be aiming for a deal averaging around $18M a year

Good catch. I meant 4/80M (20 per), they would then come back with the Max or just under (I.E. 4/95M). At that point, I would say 5/100M or we'll just let the market dictate his rate.

[payitforward]

I can't see a single player on that list that could possibly help us. Besides, we don't need any more players; we already have 15. Ernie just took care of that, making sure we wouldn't look "thin." Obviously, as our players continue to play better & better it'll be easier to count them.

Keep in mind as well that we wanted to get younger; both Ernie & Ted mentioned this several times. Can't you see that by guaranteeing Ochefu and House we have assured ourselves of reaching that important goal?

[Rafael122]

Yeah this free agent class doesn't look good at all. My concern is there's no backup point guard that is good enough to warrant the new MLE, and even if there were, it's a waste of $ b/c if Wall plays 75 games and remains relatively healthy, you're paying a guy $8 mil to play 15-17 minutes a game. That's absurd.

Honestly, and maybe this is me putting on the rose colored glasses, b/c the free agent class is so weak maybe there is room to trade either Nicholson, Smith or Mahinmi. Smith will come in at 2 yrs/$10.6 million. That's movable. That's a bargain for a stretch big. Nicholson and Ian might have a harder time being moved but any creative GM could move some of their mistakes and open up cap room.

[pcbothwel]

Yeah this free agent class doesn't look good at all. My concern is there's no backup point guard that is good enough to warrant the new MLE, and even if there were, it's a waste of $ b/c if Wall plays 75 games and remains relatively healthy, you're paying a guy $8 mil to play 15-17 minutes a game. That's absurd.

Honestly, and maybe this is me putting on the rose colored glasses, b/c the free agent class is so weak maybe there is room to trade either Nicholson, Smith or Mahinmi. Smith will come in at 2 yrs/$10.6 million. That's movable. That's a bargain for a stretch big. Nicholson and Ian might have a harder time being moved but any creative GM could move some of their mistakes and open up cap room.

Raf, I noticed the same thing (Hence my OP). I think the key is for Mahinmi to come back healthy and then supplement the back up position of the 4/5 with our pick and the MLE (One a C, the other a PF). This allows us to role with Mahinmi, Morris, Smith, MLE, 2017 1st for our 'Bigs'. We then have two choices to fill out the back court alongside Sato and Mclellan.
1) Trade Gortat for a guard
2) Trade Gortat for pick and cheap filler. Then trade our 2018 pick alongside Nicholson for a Guard.

I.E. Gortat to Dallas for 2nd (#35) and Curry...
Or to Boston for Twolves 2nd (36) and Zeller (Zeller could be removed for 2019 LAC/MEM pick)

Then send Nicholson and our 2018 1st for Augustin, Ish Smith, Lou Will, Exum, etc.

[Illmatic12]

Yeah this free agent class doesn't look good at all. My concern is there's no backup point guard that is good enough to warrant the new MLE, and even if there were, it's a waste of $ b/c if Wall plays 75 games and remains relatively healthy, you're paying a guy $8 mil to play 15-17 minutes a game. That's absurd.

Honestly, and maybe this is me putting on the rose colored glasses, b/c the free agent class is so weak maybe there is room to trade either Nicholson, Smith or Mahinmi. Smith will come in at 2 yrs/$10.6 million. That's movable. That's a bargain for a stretch big. Nicholson and Ian might have a harder time being moved but any creative GM could move some of their mistakes and open up cap room.

If Sato isn't our backup PG going into next season then we have other problems (and he should at least be playing over Burke now). I don't think they are planning to go out and spend money there. Between Wall, Beal, Sato and McClellan you'd hopefully want to have the guard rotation covered going into next season.

[AFM]

I can't see a single player on that list that could possibly help us. Besides, we don't need any more players; we already have 15. Ernie just took care of that, making sure we wouldn't look "thin." Obviously, as our players continue to play better & better it'll be easier to count them.

Keep in mind as well that we wanted to get younger; both Ernie & Ted mentioned this several times. Can't you see that by guaranteeing Ochefu and House we have assured ourselves of reaching that important goal?

Ernie, does this draft pick make my butt look thin?

[pineappleheadindc]

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Derrick Rose To Seek Max Contract In Free Agency

Derrick Rose has told friends he will seek a max contract worth nearly $150 million over five years this offseason in free agency from the New York Knicks.

Rose will only be able to sign a four-year deal with a rival club.

The Knicks would need to use nearly all of their cap space to sign Rose to a max contract.

Rose has remained healthy this season but has performed well below an All-Star level.

Link

Derrick Rose getting the max?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! Only a really stupid GM would give him a max contract. A stupid GM who's desperate to save his job. Only THAT kind of GM would drop a max contract on Rose and F over his fan base.

HAHAHAHAHAHA....uh, wait.

[pcbothwel]

This FA period looks really good for backup Centers. i have already mentioned Dedmon and Withey, but Speights is having a GREAT yeat with LAC and could be another guy to keep our eye on.

[papidulo]

.

Derrick Rose To Seek Max Contract In Free Agency

Derrick Rose has told friends he will seek a max contract worth nearly $150 million over five years this offseason in free agency from the New York Knicks.

Rose will only be able to sign a four-year deal with a rival club.

The Knicks would need to use nearly all of their cap space to sign Rose to a max contract.

Rose has remained healthy this season but has performed well below an All-Star level.

Link

Derrick Rose getting the max?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! Only a really stupid GM would give him a max contract. A stupid GM who's desperate to save his job. Only THAT kind of GM would drop a max contract on Rose and F over his fan base.

HAHAHAHAHAHA....uh, wait.

I could see Sac doing it.... Who else is gonna wanna go there?