Noel's Trade Value is at its Highest Now

[Gsraider]

CJ is a heck of a scorer and would be a nice fit, but that is a lot to part with, particularly when the Sixers pick could be #1 overall and with the Kings, you could argue the same if they don't re-sign Cousins. I'd probably pass on that one too, but if it was changed to the Lakers pick and Kings pick, I'd have to give that some thought. At some point, you have to take chances to get star level players.

[BigSleep333]

CJ is a heck of a scorer and would be a nice fit, but that is a lot to part with, particularly when the Sixers pick could be #1 overall and with the Kings, you could argue the same if they don't re-sign Cousins. I'd probably pass on that one too, but if it was changed to the Lakers pick and Kings pick, I'd have to give that some thought. At some point, you have to take chances to get star level players.

read my other post please. there is no chance our pick would be higher than LA's with cj and simmons. just 0 %

[Gsraider]

CJ is a heck of a scorer and would be a nice fit, but that is a lot to part with, particularly when the Sixers pick could be #1 overall and with the Kings, you could argue the same if they don't re-sign Cousins. I'd probably pass on that one too, but if it was changed to the Lakers pick and Kings pick, I'd have to give that some thought. At some point, you have to take chances to get star level players.

read my other post please. there is no chance our pick would be higher than LA's with cj and simmons. just 0 %

I don't need to read your other post. With the timing of Simmons' return an unknown, the time restrictions he'll have, plus the obvious rust, the bulk of his impact will probably be seen next year, not this one. Meanwhile, CJ may provide an immediate impact, but Philly is probably still going to be a bottom 5 team this year anyway when you consider their current record, plus the inordinate amount of home games they have had already. I still suspect that Philly will finish below LA and there are also still restrictions on the Lakers pick if it finishes in the bottom 3 again for the next draft. So, while I agree with your premise as it relates to next season, I don't as it relates to the current one, so I'll stick with my initial thought.

[BigSleep333]

CJ is a heck of a scorer and would be a nice fit, but that is a lot to part with, particularly when the Sixers pick could be #1 overall and with the Kings, you could argue the same if they don't re-sign Cousins. I'd probably pass on that one too, but if it was changed to the Lakers pick and Kings pick, I'd have to give that some thought. At some point, you have to take chances to get star level players.

read my other post please. there is no chance our pick would be higher than LA's with cj and simmons. just 0 %

I don't need to read your other post. With the timing of Simmons' return an unknown, the time restrictions he'll have, plus the obvious rust, the bulk of his impact will probably be seen next year, not this one. Meanwhile, CJ may provide an immediate impact, but Philly is probably still going to be a bottom 5 team this year anyway when you consider their current record, plus the inordinate amount of home games they have had already. I still suspect that Philly will finish below LA and there are also still restrictions on the Lakers pick if it finishes in the bottom 3 again for the next draft. So, while I agree with your premise as it relates to next season, I don't as it relates to the current one, so I'll stick with my initial thought.

we are 4-6 in L10 (6-7 in L13) without both of them. celtics (3rd seed in the east) and kings games could easy have been wins too during that span. we are 4, four, games behind having the 19th best record. FOUR. simmons alone will get us out of the top5 for sure, restrictions/rust or not. embiid is just too good

[tk76]

I'm OK with trading away the #1 pick for an impact starter as long as the pick is protected (maybe top 2 or top 3.)

[rzzzzz]

sigh. we were so close to CJ, but Doug had to push and win a couple more meaningless games before leaving the franchise he torched. (didn't mean to. just his usual bad luck.)

Noel's comment about Sam's promise leaves me convinced that Sam's plan was to keep Nerlens and trade OK4. (of course the fact that Brett kept trying to play Noel at pf should have been a dead giveaway.) BC wanted to keep OK4 and trade Nerlens. but at least he didn't give him away and was finally smart enough to let this get resolved on the court during real games. add to this Portland probably hasn't offered, we don't know what some of the old boy GMs might offer for OK4 and we haven't even gotten Simmons out on the court yet. we still might trade both, but we're definitely not keeping both.

meanwhile, offer Holmes for McCaw.

[spikeslovechild]

The safest move is still to move Noel and redirect his RFA dollars elsewhere.

[spikeslovechild]

I disagree with the premises of your poll. We should keep Noel because he's going to be a 30-32 minute/game player who will play both 4 and 5 and be a core player on playoff team.

I also believe that our picks will be 6 and 7 this June. We're going to pass Miami, Dallas, Phoenix and possibly Minnesota and the Lakers. We'll still get a good pick because it's a deep draft, but quite possibly not one of the primo point guards.

I can't see Noel playing that many minutes. Simmons will be the 4. We also will have an improving Saric who will play there. Noel can play some minutes at the 4 at times but not many.

The other problem is people are sort of forgetting who Noel is. I mean it's great his shot is falling but he's not going to hit .556% of his shots from 3-10 feet. Not when he is a career .302 shooter and his FT% has remained pretty much unchanged from his career (.647 compared to .601).

Right now he playing extremely well in a limited role. He has a .232 winshares (career .084). 24.4 PER (career 15.6 - NBA avg is 16). But he's only played 141 minutes this season. Thats 4 games worth of minutes for most starters. People are overreacting to an extremely small sample size full of unsustainable numbers. Lets see where he stabilizes at. I'd still move him a second for the right offer

[sixers4real]

I would keep Noel. Match any contract other team is asking. Jut let it be 4 years. So we can sign BIG contracts with Embiid 2018, Simmons 2020, and still have money for rookies that we will draft this summer in 2021 (same year Noel contract will expire).
Keep Holmes too.
Trade Okafor this season or off-season.

[Kolkmania]

I disagree with the premises of your poll. We should keep Noel because he's going to be a 30-32 minute/game player who will play both 4 and 5 and be a core player on playoff team.

I also believe that our picks will be 6 and 7 this June. We're going to pass Miami, Dallas, Phoenix and possibly Minnesota and the Lakers. We'll still get a good pick because it's a deep draft, but quite possibly not one of the primo point guards.

I can't see Noel playing that many minutes. Simmons will be the 4. We also will have an improving Saric who will play there. Noel can play some minutes at the 4 at times but not many.

The other problem is people are sort of forgetting who Noel is. I mean it's great his shot is falling but he's not going to hit .556% of his shots from 3-10 feet. Not when he is a career .302 shooter and his FT% has remained pretty much unchanged from his career (.647 compared to .601).

Right now he playing extremely well in a limited role. He has a .232 winshares (career .084). 24.4 PER (career 15.6 - NBA avg is 16). But he's only played 141 minutes this season. Thats 4 games worth of minutes for most starters. People are overreacting to an extremely small sample size full of unsustainable numbers. Lets see where he stabilizes at. I'd still move him a second for the right offer

Why are we forgetting who he is? Nerlens is still 22 years old, an incredible rim protector, mobile for his size, has excellent hands on the defensive end and a lob target. A developing jumper is nice, but won't make or break him as a center. He can play some minutes as a big next to Embiid with the right match up.

I think the biggest question is if Nerlens Noel accepts a role as backup. He showed some discouragement in the podcast with Woj that he's not playing enough to showcase himself. He won't average 32+ minutes if he resigns here.

[LloydFree]

I can't see Noel playing that many minutes. Simmons will be the 4. We also will have an improving Saric who will play there. Noel can play some minutes at the 4 at times but not many.

The other problem is people are sort of forgetting who Noel is. I mean it's great his shot is falling but he's not going to hit .556% of his shots from 3-10 feet. Not when he is a career .302 shooter and his FT% has remained pretty much unchanged from his career (.647 compared to .601).

Right now he playing extremely well in a limited role. He has a .232 winshares (career .084). 24.4 PER (career 15.6 - NBA avg is 16). But he's only played 141 minutes this season. Thats 4 games worth of minutes for most starters. People are overreacting to an extremely small sample size full of unsustainable numbers. Lets see where he stabilizes at. I'd still move him a second for the right offer

Why are we forgetting who he is? Nerlens is still 22 years old, an incredible rim protector, mobile for his size, has excellent hands on the defensive end and a lob target. A developing jumper is nice, but won't make or break him as a center. He can play some minutes as a big next to Embiid with the right match up.

I think the biggest question is if Nerlens Noel accepts a role as backup. He showed some discouragement in the podcast with Woj that he's not playing enough to showcase himself. He won't average 32+ minutes if he resigns here.

Nobody is forgetting who Noel is. The issue is that the fanbase does not value defense anywhere near as much as offense. Over the last year, I'm convinced the general fanbase is less sophisticated than I ever believed previously. From the idiots that boo Robert Covington, to the guys that stubbornly claim Okafor is a better basketball player than Noel, it's just seems the general fanbase doesn't understand what is valuable on a basketball court. Everybody knows what Noel is. The unsophisticated fan doesn't value him (or Covington) much.

[Foshan]

I am signing Noel unless we get a killer deal for him.

Like CJ for example. I like him, but i think there are some PGs in this draft who will be him or better. So no way i'm trading for him now. Portland is in a tough spot, they have no D and no $$, and CJ is a poison pill contract, so its not like they can even trade him with many teams. I'm not paying top dollar when they are looking at a first round exit and will be still needing to make a move.

Next year we will not be dealing a noel rental, we will be dealing a young stud C locked up for his athletic prime. We will also not be desperate for guard play with two top lotto picks and our guards returned.

[hookshot199]

I am signing Noel unless we get a killer deal for him.

Like CJ for example. I like him, but i think there are some PGs in this draft who will be him or better. So no way i'm trading for him now. Portland is in a tough spot, they have no D and no $$, and CJ is a poison pill contract, so its not like they can even trade him with many teams. I'm not paying top dollar when they are looking at a first round exit and will be still needing to make a move.

Next year we will not be dealing a noel rental, we will be dealing a young stud C locked up for his athletic prime. We will also not be desperate for guard play with two top lotto picks and our guards returned.

Amen. We won't be dealing him, however. I suspect he'll be motivated to be part of something with Embiid and Simmons. And he'll play his 30 minutes.

[NatiboyB]

Keep Nerlens and trade Jahlil for as close to positive value as we can find.

[tk76]

The safest move is still to move Noel and redirect his RFA dollars elsewhere.

Let's look at the pro's and cons of resigning Nerlens.

Pro: The cap space is there... for at least the first 3 years of a new contract:

The max for players coming off their rookie deals is going to start at about 24M and go up from there. You have to guess that some team is going to offer him at least 4yr/80-90M. Look at Dallas. They will have Barnes, likely draft a stud PG and have a ton of cap space. Adding a Noel would be a perfect fit to kickstart their rebuild (I looked at the list of possible FA, and Noel really stands out as the player that would fit best with the Mavs should they draft a PG.)

Sure the Sixers can afford to match in the short term, and having Simmons, Saric and their upcoming lottery picks under rookie deals for the next 3-4 years will really help balance the books (thanks Sam!) So for the first 3 years of a Noel deal the only big contracts will be:
Embiid max: 25M
Noel near max: 22M?
?resign of Ersan(2017) or Roco(2018)
Bayless (9M X 2 more years.)
Lots of rookie deals. The new CBA bumps rookie deals a bit, and Simmons, Saric and 2 lottery picks will account for 20-25M

So the space is there, and after you account for Embiid and Noel's extensions and the rookie deals, it leaves the Sixers with about 30M to either go after a star or add pieces... but resigning RoCo or Ersan would eat into this quickly.

so that takes us to the argument against...

The entire cap (100M+) will be gone in 2 years if the team signs Embiid, Noel, Saric, Simmons, the 2 incoming rookies and 2 solid vets for a combined 30M (be it RoCo + Ersan or some equivalent.) Or, if you want a star, it will cost you most of the 30M, and you will be left with minimum guys and rookies to try and plug holes.

To put it another way, in 2 years about 75M will go to 6 players: Embiid, Simmons, Nerlens, Saric and this summer's lottery picks.
That leaves about 30M to build a contending roster that at best has 2 natural G/SF. That can work if the team plays the numbers right and blows through the cap into the tax... which good teams often do. But the task is much easier if the team spends a fraction of the money that is slated for Noel and uses it on a 15 minute a night fringe player (or goes to Death lineups with Simmons or Saric at C.)

There is a clear glut of C talent that likely will get worse over the next 3 years. It should be comparatively easy to find a defensive specialist on a rookie deal or sign a vet on the cheap. The big money going to mediocre C's like Mozgov was a fluke, that won't be happening in 2 years. And without Nerlens, the team cold very well be in the position to add 2 stars or a star plus a top role player.

Nerlens will be superior to whatever reserve C the Sixers pick up on the cheap. But the question is, with Embiid, Simmons and Saric (and Holmes) on the roster, exactly how much do you need from your reserve C and would that 20M+ make a better impact spent on a perimeter player?

[XDevilBoiX]

Some people are so shortsighted, Embiid hasn't been off his minute restrictions or played a full season with b2b games yet and they wanna trade both Noel and Okafor

We need to keep Noel as a backup and insurance in case Embiid goes down. What if we trade both and Embiid goes down, who is our starting C? We went from having a logjam there then to no capable starter, our tanking years would be wasted and we would be the laughing stock of the league again.

[hookshot199]

The safest move is still to move Noel and redirect his RFA dollars elsewhere.

Let's look at the pro's and cons of resigning Nerlens.

Pro: The cap space is there... for at least the first 3 years of a new contract:

The max for players coming off their rookie deals is going to start at about 24M and go up from there. You have to guess that some team is going to offer him at least 4yr/80-90M. Look at Dallas. They will have Barnes, likely draft a stud PG and have a ton of cap space. Adding a Noel would be a perfect fit to kickstart their rebuild (I looked at the list of possible FA, and Noel really stands out as the player that would fit best with the Mavs should they draft a PG.)

Sure the Sixers can afford to match in the short term, and having Simmons, Saric and their upcoming lottery picks under rookie deals for the next 3-4 years will really help balance the books (thanks Sam!) So for the first 3 years of a Noel deal the only big contracts will be:
Embiid max: 25M
Noel near max: 22M?
?resign of Ersan(2017) or Roco(2018)
Bayless (9M X 2 more years.)
Lots of rookie deals. The new CBA bumps rookie deals a bit, and Simmons, Saric and 2 lottery picks will account for 20-25M

So the space is there, and after you account for Embiid and Noel's extensions and the rookie deals, it leaves the Sixers with about 30M to either go after a star or add pieces... but resigning RoCo or Ersan would eat into this quickly.

so that takes us to the argument against...

The entire cap (100M+) will be gone in 2 years if the team signs Embiid, Noel, Saric, Simmons, the 2 incoming rookies and 2 solid vets for a combined 30M (be it RoCo + Ersan or some equivalent.) Or, if you want a star, it will cost you most of the 30M, and you will be left with minimum guys and rookies to try and plug holes.

To put it another way, in 2 years about 75M will go to 6 players: Embiid, Simmons, Nerlens, Saric and this summer's lottery picks.
That leaves about 30M to build a contending roster that at best has 2 natural G/SF. That can work if the team plays the numbers right and blows through the cap into the tax... which good teams often do. But the task is much easier if the team spends a fraction of the money that is slated for Noel and uses it on a 15 minute a night fringe player (or goes to Death lineups with Simmons or Saric at C.)

There is a clear glut of C talent that likely will get worse over the next 3 years. It should be comparatively easy to find a defensive specialist on a rookie deal or sign a vet on the cheap. The big money going to mediocre C's like Mozgov was a fluke, that won't be happening in 2 years. And without Nerlens, the team cold very well be in the position to add 2 stars or a star plus a top role player.

Nerlens will be superior to whatever reserve C the Sixers pick up on the cheap. But the question is, with Embiid, Simmons and Saric (and Holmes) on the roster, exactly how much do you need from your reserve C and would that 20M+ make a better impact spent on a perimeter player?

If Embiid plays 30 mpg, that leaves 18 mpg for Noel at center. Give him 12-15 at 4. Saric gets the remaining 30-35 mpg at 4. Keep what you got. You control your roster for five to eight years. Holmes would be the odd man out. And it goes without saying that Okafor has to be moved.

It also goes without saying, we need to see what Simmons can do on D at the 2 and the 3. RC, if he's not too expensive, will get his minutes at 3.

Keeping Noel gives us security if Embiid goes down, big injury or small. There's no need to move a potential all-defensive team player who runs the court.

[tk76]

If Embiid is an All-NBA player, you are not going to restrict him to 30 mpg. Shaq averaged 38 mpg in his prime. Dwight 36-38 mpg. Even Duncan averaged 35+ MPG if you look at his first 12 seasons. They started preserving his minutes when he was over 30 years old.

Maybe things have changed, and you can contend while minute protecting your franchise player. GSW is playing their core guys about 34 mpg... but they have that luxury given their record. I just don't see Embiid averaging less than 34 MPG if he is healthy and the Sixers are contenders.

That leaves 14 minutes for Noel. That means the Majority of Noel's minutes will be at PF... and you are assuming that Simmons gets zero minutes at PF on defense.

[sixerswillrule]

If Embiid plays 30 mpg, that leaves 18 mpg for Noel at center. Give him 12-15 at 4. Saric gets the remaining 30-35 mpg at 4. Keep what you got. You control your roster for five to eight years. Holmes would be the odd man out. And it goes without saying that Okafor has to be moved.

It also goes without saying, we need to see what Simmons can do on D at the 2 and the 3. RC, if he's not too expensive, will get his minutes at 3.

Keeping Noel gives us security if Embiid goes down, big injury or small. There's no need to move a potential all-defensive team player who runs the court.

I'd say more like Noel gets 10 mpg at the 4 and Saric gets 24 mpg. Simmons gets the rest, around 14 mpg. And that's the minimum, IMO. If anything, Simmons will get even more time at the 4 depending on how he and the team look with him there vs. at the 3.

[Arsenal]

If Embiid is an All-NBA player, you are not going to restrict him to 30 mpg. Shaq averaged 38 mpg in his prime. Dwight 36-38 mpg. Even Duncan averaged 35+ MPG if you look at his first 12 seasons. They started preserving his minutes when he was over 30 years old.

Maybe things have changed, and you can contend while minute protecting your franchise player. GSW is playing their core guys about 34 mpg... but they have that luxury given their record. I just don't see Embiid averaging less than 34 MPG if he is healthy and the Sixers are contenders.

That leaves 14 minutes for Noel. That means the Majority of Noel's minutes will be at PF... and you are assuming that Simmons gets zero minutes at PF on defense.

Times are changing. Thankfully this organization seems focused on the long-term instead of the short-term. That means restrict Embiid to 30-32 mpg in the regular season. Run a legit 9 man rotation. Only play him more than that in the playoffs.

That would be the smart thing to do long-term.