NBA TPA Player Rankings

[Truthrising]

I believe someone posted this previously, but here's another player stat tracking concept/metric someone had generated which takes into account both defensive and offensive effectiveness on a per-possession basis. i didn't realize how effective both Lucas and Demarre really were and how god awful Valanciunas has been this season.

TPA Model
The concept of total points added (TPA), isn’t particularly complicated. We’re looking at both defensive and offensive effectiveness on a per-possession basis while also incorporating the amount of playing time the contributor in question receives.
At the heart of the theory is this comparison between two hypothetical players:
Player A makes an average team 5 points better per 100 possessions than an average player would in his spot, and he plays 500 possessions.
Player B makes an average team 10 points better per 100 possessions than an average player would in his spot, and he plays 250 possessions.
Player B is more effective on a per-possession basis—twice as effective, in fact. But Player A spends twice as much time on the court. Theoretically, they should have identical values, as they would both add 25 points to an average team.
As such, the formula for TPA is rather simple. It’s broken down into two parts—offensive points added (OPA) and defensive points saved (DPS)—and each is calculated in the same vein.
OPA is derived by adjusting offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) to account for the number of possessions the player in question is present for. Similarly, DPS is derived from a similar adjustment of defensive box plus/minus (DBPM) with that same number of possessions. OBPM and DBPM, both calculated by Basketball-Reference.com, estimate the per-100-possessions value of a player on either end of the court.
Add OPA and DPS together, and you have TPA. A score of zero indicates a player was perfectly average (by no means a bad thing for rookies or lifelong end-of-bench players), while anything positive means they were better than an average-level replacement.

http://nbamath.com/tpa-database/nba-2016-17-tpa-scores/

Toronto Raptors rankings:

Ranking/Name/TPA

8. Kyle Lowry - 206.46
28. Lucas Nogeira - 78.51
64. Demarre Carroll - 32.97
76. Demar Derozan - 26.95
83 Patrick Patterson - 23.88
96. Terrence Ross- 14.14
162. Norman Powell - -1.9
195. Jakob Poeltl - -5.11
243. Pascal Siakam - -19.46
312.Cory Joseph - -19.46
349. Jonas Valanciunas - -26.94

[Detective]

349? FOH

[Squintz21]

Doesn't this stat kind of ignore context or am I misunderstanding? A player would receive a pretty significant rating difference if they're playing prime minutes against starters instead of playing off the bench or garbage time no? This also doesn't really seem to give the context of basketball being a team game. So wouldn't JVs numbers suffer because he was often paired with Siakam, a rookie, while Bebe is often paired with Patterson, one of our best front court defenders and floor spacers?

[wtcantfw]

Just did a quick scan of the list. It looks like PGs get shafted on the DPS side of the equation. Outside of CP3 and John Wall, who are elite defenders, most PGs seem to be in the negative.

EDIT: this makes Westbrook's ranking even more impressive

[TerryTate]

With the right equations you can tell numbers to do almost anything.
I looked at the list and its telling me Bebe is MORE effective than Karl Anthony Towns.

Ok stat pro, let's use your equation go to Minn management and convince them Bebe is better than KAT and get them to trade us KAT.

[Truthrising]

With the right equations you can tell numbers to do almost anything.
I looked at the list and its telling me Bebe is MORE effective than Karl Anthony Towns.

Ok stat pro, let's use your equation go to Minn management and convince them Bebe is better than KAT and get them to trade us KAT.

Hey bud, before you roast me, I just came across this site..in no way am I nor have I said i'm some stat pro. Just here to share what i've come across..chill

[S ID]

With the right equations you can tell numbers to do almost anything.
I looked at the list and its telling me Bebe is MORE effective than Karl Anthony Towns.

Ok stat pro, let's use your equation go to Minn management and convince them Bebe is better than KAT and get them to trade us KAT.

Nobody actually think this man.

Anybody with a half a brain cell can tell this stat is just a tool to show a bigger picture.

[artsncrafts]

This NBAMath site that people keep posting is either run by Bebe or his mom.

[TerryTate]

With the right equations you can tell numbers to do almost anything.
I looked at the list and its telling me Bebe is MORE effective than Karl Anthony Towns.

Ok stat pro, let's use your equation go to Minn management and convince them Bebe is better than KAT and get them to trade us KAT.

Hey bud, before you roast me, I just came across this site..in no way am I nor have I said i'm some stat pro. Just here to share what i've come across..chill

Not roasting you at all....
I'm using sarcasm to prove a point.
This is probably the 2nd-3rd thread based off this "guy's" blog information, who's arguments are average at best and very situational.
I'm sure the "real" stat pros of the NBA would have made this stat metric years ago if it was accurate.

Posting these kinds of threads IMO is like "misinformation" and people take for actual truth.

[hyper316]

Bebe play against bench players, KAT play against starters

[TerryTate]

With the right equations you can tell numbers to do almost anything.
I looked at the list and its telling me Bebe is MORE effective than Karl Anthony Towns.

Ok stat pro, let's use your equation go to Minn management and convince them Bebe is better than KAT and get them to trade us KAT.

Nobody actually think this man.

Anybody with a half a brain cell can tell this stat is just a tool to show a bigger picture.

Ok this made zero sense.....
If this NO one thinks this....Then how is the "bigger picture" accurate at all.

[artsncrafts]

Also Zaza is so high probably because he plays all his minutes with Durant, Klay, Curry and Green. Is there even a backup C in GS?

[Truthrising]

Bebe play against bench players, KAT play against starters

Than why does Carroll have a higher TPA# compared to Ross?

[RaptorsJunkie]

With the right equations you can tell numbers to do almost anything.
I looked at the list and its telling me Bebe is MORE effective than Karl Anthony Towns.

Ok stat pro, let's use your equation go to Minn management and convince them Bebe is better than KAT and get them to trade us KAT.

Hey bud, before you roast me, I just came across this site..in no way am I nor have I said i'm some stat pro. Just here to share what i've come across..chill

To back you up. A true analytics guru will know that it's a combination of many stats. OP is posting one of likely hundreds of stats that are looked at and was simply bringing it to the attention of this board. All stats are flawed as Truthrising is also correctly suggesting.

[LonZoBallin]

How can you say these stats are far off? I look at the top players list and those are pretty much the best players in the League. Any stat that includes anything defence is obviously going to bring both JV and DD's ranking down. Why are you surprised by this. 349 may be hyperbolic but it's a telling stat imo

[TerryTate]

How can you say these stats are far off? I look at the top players list and those are pretty much the best players in the League. Any stat that includes anything defence is obviously going to bring both JV and DD's ranking down. Why are you surprised by this. 349 may be hyperbolic but it's a telling stat imo

Since the top players in the leagues gets the most stats (and some pad their stats) of course they are going to be on top of this league. So saying "the best guys in the league are top, this looks right......" is a supreme OVERstatement

By this metric a broken Noah and aging David Lee with limited minutes is better than half our team.
FOH.......

Reason, I'm kind of peeved, is people believe in this kind of poor metrics and throw our resident metric guys (VVV) under the bus (despite him showing completely otherwise), it's so cancerous, but these blogs FUEL these bad attitudes in RGM.

[LonZoBallin]

How can you say these stats are far off? I look at the top players list and those are pretty much the best players in the League. Any stat that includes anything defence is obviously going to bring both JV and DD's ranking down. Why are you surprised by this. 349 may be hyperbolic but it's a telling stat imo

Since the top players in the leagues gets the most stats (and some pad their stats) of course they are going to be on top of this league. So saying "the best guys in the league are top, this looks right......" is a supreme OVERstatement

By this metric a broken Noah and aging David Lee with limited minutes is better than half our team.
FOH.......

Reason, I'm kind of peeved, is people believe in this kind of poor metrics and throw our resident metric guys (VVV) under the bus.

For the most part the best players in the League are at the top, how can you deny this? there's probably some cracks in the system but the majority of the best to be at the top. Obviously there's some guys like Gobert, Potter and Ariza but it mixes defence in, those are all really good defensive players....so it's not too big of a surprise.

What I think the real problem here is whenever someone brings up a Stat that doesn't fair kindly to JV it's a horrible stat right away. JV fans really need to back up and admit he's probably bottom 5 starting defensive centre in this league. It's a problem!!

[artsncrafts]

How can you say these stats are far off? I look at the top players list and those are pretty much the best players in the League. Any stat that includes anything defence is obviously going to bring both JV and DD's ranking down. Why are you surprised by this. 349 may be hyperbolic but it's a telling stat imo

Since the top players in the leagues gets the most stats (and some pad their stats) of course they are going to be on top of this league. So saying "the best guys in the league are top, this looks right......" is a supreme OVERstatement

By this metric a broken Noah and aging David Lee with limited minutes is better than half our team.
FOH.......

Reason, I'm kind of peeved, is people believe in this kind of poor metrics and throw our resident metric guys (VVV) under the bus.

For the most part the best players in the League are at the top, how can you deny this? there's probably some cracks in the system but the majority of the best to be at the top. Obviously there's some guys like Gobert, Potter and Ariza but it mixes defence in, those are all really good defensive players....so it's not too big of a surprise.

What I think the real problem here is whenever someone brings up a Stat that doesn't fair kindly to JV it's a horrible stat right away. JV fans really need to back up and admit he's probably bottom 5 starting defensive centre in this league. It's a problem!!

This TPA business is not about how bad it says JV is but how good it says Bebe is when in reality he is not top of the league good. (or better than average at best) Also it doesn't appear to take into account defensive rebounding which is part of defense, but I could be wrong.

[TerryTate]

How can you say these stats are far off? I look at the top players list and those are pretty much the best players in the League. Any stat that includes anything defence is obviously going to bring both JV and DD's ranking down. Why are you surprised by this. 349 may be hyperbolic but it's a telling stat imo

Since the top players in the leagues gets the most stats (and some pad their stats) of course they are going to be on top of this league. So saying "the best guys in the league are top, this looks right......" is a supreme OVERstatement

By this metric a broken Noah and aging David Lee with limited minutes is better than half our team.
FOH.......

Reason, I'm kind of peeved, is people believe in this kind of poor metrics and throw our resident metric guys (VVV) under the bus.

For the most part the best players in the League are at the top, how can you deny this? there's probably some cracks in the system but the majority of the best to be at the top. Obviously there's some guys like Gobert, Potter and Ariza but it mixes defence in, those are all really good defensive players....so it's not too big of a surprise.

What I think the real problem here is whenever someone brings up a Stat that doesn't fair kindly to JV it's a horrible stat right away. JV fans really need to back up and admit he's probably bottom 5 starting defensive centre in this league. It's a problem!!

By your logic.

The top guys in the league are on top, this MUST be right. Of course they are going to be on top. They pull in the best percentages and other stats.

I can briefly look over this chart and see a few MAJOR holes.
Does not take into account minimum games played or minimum minutes requirement. Which means someone can have 1 blowup game and then spike into the top 30-50. The strength of STATS is the law of averages. What is that player going to do on a consistent basis. I see numerous holes in this list and I'm not even a stats genius or pro. Poetl and Steve Novak are in the top 100 and they don't average 5 mins a game.

Noah is on a garbage team and plays like trash and is rated 100 spots higher than our C. I'd beg to differ that OUR team's W record proves overall he's is more valuable to our team than Noah is to a a bottom feeding Knicks.

I'm not defending JV, cause he's playing like **** this year. He's also not involved in the game this year, like last year. What's the point of him battling for post position to be ignored. EITHER WAY he's playing LIKE **** compared to last year. I'm not going to disagree

[vini_vidi_vici]

Ill have to explore further this weekend, but given its refernce to boxscore statistics and BPM in particular, it makes sense.

JV rates fairly bad in BPM, and its almost in line in terms of rankings within the team.