Political Roundtable Part XI

[dckingsfan]

You also have to factor that a lot less "shootings" become "murders" in this age of advanced medicine. The true decline in criminal violence isn't as great as that graph makes it appear. It's just that people are more likely to survive shootings.

But what interests me isn't the long term trend. I don't deny that it's generally downward. What interests me is the recent spike that corresponds in both time period and location to areas of high BLM activity. A fair hypothesis can be made that Black Lives Matter is killing blacks.

Nonsense. I really wish you would stop sharing your prejudices, stereotypes and narrow-mindedness about the black community and black people.

@Zards, have you read the book Gettocide? It is worth a read. She changed my mind on policing, I do think it is the problem.

In the book, she posits an argument both directly and indirectly that policing is the issue. But possibly not how you would guess. The notion is it is the unsolved murders (mostly black on black) that are the problem and that (I am generalizing now) most police departments don't apply the requisite resources to get the unsolved murder rate down.

IMO, BLM should have concentrated on this problem (solving the unsolved homicides involving blacks) and not the attack (regardless of how well it resonates and how true) on police officers as a threat to blacks OR both problems concurrently. BLM could have taken the high road, concentrated their resources on black on black homicides and called (positive) attention to individual homicide detectives that had high closure rates. The notion that we leave those homicides unsolved and it is for others to take revenge on the killers exacerbates the situation.

But alas, that cat is out of the bag.

@ Nate, I am not sure how you could get to that number. I think you can get to that number where there were riots. One thing I think is that it would be difficult to argue that BLM has helped reduce the black homicide rate.

I would argue that this is something that can be solved through best police practices and proper allocation of resources.

[Ruzious]

Gotta give credit where credit is due. Kudos to Shepard Smith and Fox. https://www.yahoo.com/tv/fox-news-defends-rival-cnn-against-donald-trump-213951823.html

[montestewart]

Gotta give credit where credit is due. Kudos to Shepard Smith and Fox. https://www.yahoo.com/tv/fox-news-defends-rival-cnn-against-donald-trump-213951823.html

When Obama tried to cut Fox out of the loop, CNN backed them up. Oh what a tangled web we weave 100% human hair to your hair.

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[closg00]

Keeping up with Trumps lies is like playing whack-a-mole, but it's worth addressing his latest lie regarding him being a germaphobic because it goes to the credibility of the Trump dossier that was leaked. In response to the dossier, specifically the allegations that he enjoys to watch Golden Showers Trump said that he is a germaphobic. The fact that he indirectly addresses this is a psychological "tell" IMO. Read this nugget:

In an interview from 2015 with Hollywood Reporter where he was asked if he would "kiss babies and shake hands on the campaign trail," Trump says:

I'm not germophobic. I do it," he replied. "In Iowa, I must have shaken 2,000 hands — and those were only the ones that were next to me."

Eventually someone with a first-hand account of some dirt on Trump is going to talk for a big pay day.


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[FAH1223]

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Bernie is absolutely right on this. People that are voting against this are against the American people.

Yup. Several GOP Senators also voted for Bernie and Sen. Kloubacher's amendment. Cruz lol, Paul, McCain, Flake, Grassley

[nate33]

Keeping up with Trumps lies is like playing whack-a-mole, but it's worth addressing his latest lie regarding him being a germaphobic because it goes to the credibility of the Trump dossier that was leaked. In response to the dossier, specifically the allegations that he enjoys to watch Golden Showers Trump said that he is a germaphobic. The fact that he indirectly addresses this is a psychological "tell" IMO. Read this nugget:

In an interview from 2015 with Hollywood Reporter where he was asked if he would "kiss babies and shake hands on the campaign trail," Trump says:

I'm not germophobic. I do it," he replied. "In Iowa, I must have shaken 2,000 hands — and those were only the ones that were next to me."

Eventually someone with a first-hand account of some dirt on Trump is going to talk for a big pay day.


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Shaking hands and getting peed on are different levels of germ exposure.

[Dark Faze]

Booker has bad politics. The sooner dems get him out of their head for a 2020 run the better.

[gtn130]

Booker has bad politics. The sooner dems get him out of their head for a 2020 run the better.

Was literally just about to post this. lol at Booker being a consideration for 2020

[Dark Faze]

There's no way Tillerson should be confirmed--no experience and a horrible testimony thus far. Hopefully he gets shot down. Absolutely no reason to confirm him.

Booker has said good things about Sessions in the past and then testified against him yesterday--and yet he then goes to bat for Tillerson.

Booker is trash

[montestewart]

Keeping up with Trumps lies is like playing whack-a-mole, but it's worth addressing his latest lie regarding him being a germaphobic because it goes to the credibility of the Trump dossier that was leaked. In response to the dossier, specifically the allegations that he enjoys to watch Golden Showers Trump said that he is a germaphobic. The fact that he indirectly addresses this is a psychological "tell" IMO. Read this nugget:

In an interview from 2015 with Hollywood Reporter where he was asked if he would "kiss babies and shake hands on the campaign trail," Trump says:

I'm not germophobic. I do it," he replied. "In Iowa, I must have shaken 2,000 hands — and those were only the ones that were next to me."

Eventually someone with a first-hand account of some dirt on Trump is going to talk for a big pay day.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Shaking hands and getting peed on are different levels of germ exposure.

Seriously? I guess I'm going to have to reappraise my protocols.

[Wizardspride]

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[nate33]

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Lots of interesting tidbits in the article referenced:

The nationally representative survey of close to 8,000 police officers, released Wednesday by the Pew Research Center, provided some data to back up assertions made by leading law enforcement figures, including the F.B.I. director James Comey, that the publicity surrounding such episodes has discouraged the police from confronting suspects.

The survey found that 72 percent of respondents said their colleagues are “now less willing to stop and question suspicious persons”; that 86 percent thought police work had become harder because of high-profile incidents like the killings of Mike Brown in 2014 and Alton Sterling in the summer of 2016; and that 93 percent of police officers think their colleagues now worry more about personal safety.

Sounds a bit like what I was referencing before when I posted the recent crime estimates.

Black officers were less likely to feel frustrated by their jobs and less likely to have physically fought with a suspect resisting arrest within the last month than their white or Hispanic colleagues.

The general thrust of the article is that black officers see things differently than white/Hispanic officers. Could it be because criminal suspects are more likely to resist white/Hispanic officers due to the anti-police rhetoric emphasized by the BLM movement? Alternatively, maybe black officers are simply doing a better job of being professional with suspects and not antagonizing them. It would be interesting to see these questions asked after controlling for race of suspects. Are all races of suspects more likely to resist white/Hispanic officers, or is it just the black suspects?

There was one standout question on which police officers, regardless of their race, tended to agree: They were close to unanimous in their belief that the public does not comprehend the risks and challenges of their work.

Amen.

[nate33]

Yet another hate crime hoax:

BALTIMORE (WJZ) — The Anne Arundel County Police Department has charged a 14-year-old girl with a juvenile citation for sending a threatening tweet related to Arundel High School.

Police began their investigation after Arundel High School officials told them about a suspicious Twitter account. The account, named @KoolkidsKlanKkk, reportedly sent out a tweet that read, “We’re planning to attack tomorrow”. This account used similar language to a racial petition that had been passed around Anne Arundel High School by the “Kool Kids Klan”.

Police worked with Twitter, and were able to identify the person who created the account and sent out the threatening tweet. That person has been identified as a 14-year-old African American female who attends Arundel High School.

http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2017/01/11/police-cite-student-for-threat-made-at-arundel-high-school/

[nate33]

On another subject, this article addresses the Orweilian talking point that Obama has been the "deportation President":

CIS added that the number of criminal aliens ICE deports annually has decreased by about 60 percent over the last eight years. Last year, ICE reported they had removed 60,318 criminal aliens who’d been living inside the United States (which made up roughly 98 percent of the total number of interior deportations). CIS notes the number of criminal aliens removed dropped by about 4 percent between 2015 and 2016, and 60 percent from its peak in 2010, when about 150,000 criminal aliens were sent home.

CIS explains:

The main reason for the decline is the Obama administration's prioritization scheme that has steadily narrowed the types of cases that ICE officers are permitted to pursue. These policies have exempted all but the most egregious alien offenders from deportation. Currently only aliens convicted of felonies, significant misdemeanors, or three lesser misdemeanors are considered priorities, and exceptions are allowed in many cases, such as if the alien has acquired a family or other community ties here.

President Obama’s administration has become famous for claiming high numbers of deportations, stating that nearly 2 million unlawfully present aliens have been removed from the country over the past eight years. However, these “deportations” also included illegal aliens who were caught at the border and immediately sent home, a large category of aliens that, under previously administrations, were counted as “returns” rather than true “deportations.”

Omitting those people who are returned shortly after crossing into the U.S., ICE notes that true deportations of illegal aliens living in the country are at the lowest point seen since the Nixon administration.

http://www.mrctv.org/blog/deportations-drop-73-under-obama-hit-43-year-annual-low

[nate33]

More breaking news from Buzzfeed:

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[penbeast0]

More breaking news from Buzzfeed:

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Nate, is there any positive reason for posting this? Do you really believe it? Do you think it was funny? Why throw this up?

[nate33]

More breaking news from Buzzfeed:

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Nate, is there any positive reason for posting this? Do you really believe it? Do you think it was funny? Why throw this up?

It's a joke. Satire. It's as believable as Trump taking golden showers with prostitutes in Moscow.

[montestewart]

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Nate, is there any positive reason for posting this? Do you really believe it? Do you think it was funny? Why throw this up?

It's a joke. Satire. It's as believable as Trump taking golden showers with prostitutes in Moscow.

Not as believable. Too many witnesses at a zoo. Birds and beasts, big baboons, drunk monkeys, etc.

In each new release, the golden showers are evoked by the yellow highlighting.

[payitforward]

Don't look at the blips... look at the long-term trends

You also have to factor that a lot less "shootings" become "murders" in this age of advanced medicine. The true decline in criminal violence isn't as great as that graph makes it appear. It's just that people are more likely to survive shootings.

OTOH, you also have to factor in that a larger % of violent events are reported, & a greater % of those reported actually generate records that can provide data for graphs.

This would be an effect in the opposite direction. & just as in the case of advanced medicine, it's an effect of technology.

OTOH (wch would be the 3d hand, I guess), I view any data purporting to show rates of violence (or, really, of most things) in the the 18th century as unreliable in many different ways.

[Wizardspride]

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