2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread

[phanman]

If the award was legitimately given to the "Most valuable" player, LeBron would basically get it every year. Put him on any team and they instantly become a 50 win team that could at least win a playoff round or two. He makes all 4 players around him better, nobody else in the league makes an impact like him.

Well this year along with my most deserving, you can make a strong case for Harden as "most valuable" as well. Without him the Rockets would be bottom feeders. Them racing out to a 31-10 record with an of SRS 3/30 is amazing. Most people have them on the playoff bubble, but to lead his team to the 3rd best record overall is crazy.

Though I can see Westbrook getting a tonne of votes regardless of his teams record if he does maintain his triple double average, just for historical reasons. Though its pretty crazy when you consider that Harden himself is averaging 8.3.

Lebron's days of getting MVP ended a long time ago, he's been so damn good that anything he does just isn't that special anymore. That and I fully expect him to coast to finish off the season, once Cleveland locks up that #1 seed.

[HurricaneKid]

OKC doesn't really stagger Adams and Westbrook at all, so it's not really true for him at all.

And these guys have played w/o Russ. Adams played 62 minutes with a TS of 50.

To be clear, Bondom is suggesting that a player who has now played >1200 min that has played 62 min without RWB on the floor with him (that means 94.9% of his min come with RWB on the floor), IS STAGGERED and those ~15 shots he has taken without RWB on the floor are somehow statistically relevant.

You argue some really good points Bondom. This is not one of them.

[bondom34]

OKC doesn't really stagger Adams and Westbrook at all, so it's not really true for him at all.

And these guys have played w/o Russ. Adams played 62 minutes with a TS of 50.

To be clear, Bondom is suggesting that a player who has now played >1200 min that has played 62 min without RWB on the floor with him (that means 94.9% of his min come with RWB on the floor), IS STAGGERED and those ~15 shots he has taken without RWB on the floor are somehow statistically relevant.

You argue some really good points Bondom. This is not one of them.

That Adams isn't a great offensive weapon? He's getting there. But is he a great weapon? He's not a negative, but he's not a guy you go to to score. OKC doesn't have a single player sans Westbrook to do that with reliably.

Westbrook's offensive help is light years behind Harden's and I don't see how that's deniable.

Also to reiterate, please read the thread. I solved this w/ KChile a day ago, yet you still don't read and quote 3 day old posts.

[HurricaneKid]

Harden - back to back 40 point triple doubles... record now 31-9.... cleveland after tonight 28-9.... and people have the nerve to say lebron is the mvp.... oh god.

One can still make a legitimate case for Lebron as the MVP if we define the award to be the best player in the NBA. And that is my definition of the MVP, so I still think it's Lebron > Harden.

Everyone already has their opinion on who they feel is the most talented player in the league, but ask yourself, what makes Lebron the best player in the NBA THIS YEAR? Your basing it more on resume and reputation. If you look at what's going on this year alone(as everyone should), Harden has put up more impressive stats, and has lead far lesser talent to a better record than Lebrons team. Like I said, besides pre-set favoritism, Lebron doesn't have many strong arguments for MVP over Harden based on what's going on THIS YEAR.

I think this is overstated. LeBron really is having an outstanding season. He is well above both Westbrook and Harden in xRAPM, and while raw RAPM figures are hard to come by I am confident removing box score variables would only vault his lead over the two of them further. Which is what LeBron is, the ultimate chess board queen that quickly destroys his opponent at its most vulnerable point. He is averaging a career high in asst/36 and reb/36.

Also, believe it or not, he is even shooting well above Harden in 3pt%.

Don't get me wrong, I think Harden is beating him out. I just think there is a case to be made for LeBron. The best player with the best on court impact, playing for a defending champion that is, and should maintain, a 1 seed by adjusting his play in a way few other players in the history of the came could.

[HurricaneKid]

And these guys have played w/o Russ. Adams played 62 minutes with a TS of 50.

To be clear, Bondom is suggesting that a player who has now played >1200 min that has played 62 min without RWB on the floor with him (that means 94.9% of his min come with RWB on the floor), IS STAGGERED and those ~15 shots he has taken without RWB on the floor are somehow statistically relevant.

You argue some really good points Bondom. This is not one of them.

That Adams isn't a great offensive weapon? He's getting there. But is Rudy Gobert a great weapon? Because I don't think so and I think Adams is only slightly better at most offensively.

Westbrook's offensive help is light years behind Harden's and I don't see how that's deniable.

Also to reiterate, please read the thread. I solved this w/ KChile a day ago, yet you still don't read and quote 3 day old posts.

Rudy Gobert is a defensive weapon. And I watched the OKC ending last night. The biggest possession of the game was Adams ISO'd on Conley for a LONG TIME, only to block his 3 (that would have cut the lead to 1), and start a fast break that ended in a Dipo 3 that ended the game. And its the OKC DEFENSE that has been carrying this team.

His offensive help IS light years ahead of RWB. There is no question; I've never argued this point. That's why the Rox are playing at a historically elite level offensively and OKC is near the league avg. I would submit that the offenses that have been as good as the Rox have all had league MVPs on them. The 96 Bulls have MJ win an MVP, the 87 Lakers had Magic... etc.

[bondom34]

To be clear, Bondom is suggesting that a player who has now played >1200 min that has played 62 min without RWB on the floor with him (that means 94.9% of his min come with RWB on the floor), IS STAGGERED and those ~15 shots he has taken without RWB on the floor are somehow statistically relevant.

You argue some really good points Bondom. This is not one of them.

That Adams isn't a great offensive weapon? He's getting there. But is Rudy Gobert a great weapon? Because I don't think so and I think Adams is only slightly better at most offensively.

Westbrook's offensive help is light years behind Harden's and I don't see how that's deniable.

Also to reiterate, please read the thread. I solved this w/ KChile a day ago, yet you still don't read and quote 3 day old posts.

Rudy Gobert is a defensive weapon. And I watched the OKC ending last night. The biggest possession of the game was Adams ISO'd on Conley for a LONG TIME, only to block his 3 (that would have cut the lead to 1), and start a fast break that ended in a Dipo 3 that ended the game. And its the OKC DEFENSE that has been carrying this team.

His offensive help IS light years ahead of RWB. There is no question; I've never argued this point. That's why the Rox are playing at a historically elite level offensively and OKC is near the league avg. I would submit that the offenses that have been as good as the Rox have all had league MVPs on them. The 96 Bulls have MJ win an MVP, the 87 Lakers had Magic... etc.

The TEAM offense is league average. Westbrook is the only reason its at that level. He's carrying a similar load as Harden offensively. His overall game is at the same level as Harden's. OKC's defense isn't carrying them much more than the offense, the D is ranked 9th and the O 15th iirc. They're pretty middle of the pack in both, and the only single player keeping that afloat is Westbrook.


Also Houston's defense is carrying them as much as OKC's!

Edit: Also you state above Lebron is "well ahead" in XRAPM. He is well ahead of Harden. Not Westbrook. Westbrook is close to Lebron and both have a sizable gap over Harden.

Edit 2: Since 12/1: Rockets D rating is 104.5 using NBA.com, that's why they're suddenly winning.

Editing edit 2 to elaborate......

Since 12/1, Houston's been on fire going 20-3. In that time, Harden's actually at a negative on/off.
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612745/onoffcourt-advanced/?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2016&DateTo=01%2F12%2F2017&sort=OFF_RATING&dir=1

His net rating in that span is at 8.5, Westbrook's season net rating at 7.4 since the same date with a positive on/off.

http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612760/onoffcourt-advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2016&DateTo=01%2F12%2F2017

All this while Westbrook's on/off is nearly identical to Harden's in the same timespan (4.9 to 5.2). The big change? Turns out adding Bev back lifted the defense a ton for Houston. They are defending 6th best since 12/1, OKC 7th.
http://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/#!?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2016&DateTo=01%2F12%2F2017

[HurricaneKid]

That Adams isn't a great offensive weapon? He's getting there. But is Rudy Gobert a great weapon? Because I don't think so and I think Adams is only slightly better at most offensively.

Westbrook's offensive help is light years behind Harden's and I don't see how that's deniable.

Also to reiterate, please read the thread. I solved this w/ KChile a day ago, yet you still don't read and quote 3 day old posts.

Rudy Gobert is a defensive weapon. And I watched the OKC ending last night. The biggest possession of the game was Adams ISO'd on Conley for a LONG TIME, only to block his 3 (that would have cut the lead to 1), and start a fast break that ended in a Dipo 3 that ended the game. And its the OKC DEFENSE that has been carrying this team.

His offensive help IS light years ahead of RWB. There is no question; I've never argued this point. That's why the Rox are playing at a historically elite level offensively and OKC is near the league avg. I would submit that the offenses that have been as good as the Rox have all had league MVPs on them. The 96 Bulls have MJ win an MVP, the 87 Lakers had Magic... etc.

The TEAM offense is league average. Westbrook is the only reason its at that level. He's carrying a similar load as Harden offensively. His overall game is at the same level as Harden's. OKC's defense isn't carrying them much more than the offense, the D is ranked 9th and the O 15th iirc. They're pretty middle of the pack in both, and the only single player keeping that afloat is Westbrook.


Also Houston's defense is carrying them as much as OKC's!

Edit: Also you state above Lebron is "well ahead" in XRAPM. He is well ahead of Harden. Not Westbrook. Westbrook is close to Lebron and both have a sizable gap over Harden.

Edit 2: Since 12/1: Rockets D rating is 104.5 using NBA.com, that's why they're suddenly winning.

Editing edit 2 to elaborate......

Since 12/1, Houston's been on fire going 20-3. In that time, Harden's actually at a negative on/off.
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612745/onoffcourt-advanced/?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2016&DateTo=01%2F12%2F2017&sort=OFF_RATING&dir=1

His net rating in that span is at 8.5, Westbrook's season net rating at 7.4 since the same date with a positive on/off.

http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612760/onoffcourt-advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2016&DateTo=01%2F12%2F2017

All this while Westbrook's on/off is nearly identical to Harden's in the same timespan (4.9 to 5.2). The big change? Turns out adding Bev back lifted the defense a ton for Houston. They are defending 6th best since 12/1, OKC 7th.
http://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/#!?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2016&DateTo=01%2F12%2F2017

I think ESPNs RAPM is REALLY box score influenced. I would be interested to see NPI RAPM for this year. I think its evident that LBJ would be substantially ahead of both when sox score stats are removed. Either way, he has a decent enough lead over both at this point.

You really need to stop quoting naked +/-. Especially when the second best player on the team plays 95% of his min with RWB on the floor.

I very well might be giving Harden more credit for the elite Hou offense than he deserves. But he has been far better defensively than in years past as well. I am curious to see if he will be able to keep that up through the dog days of Feb/Mar.

[bondom34]

I think ESPNs RAPM is REALLY box score influenced. I would be interested to see NPI RAPM for this year. I think its evident that LBJ would be substantially ahead of both when sox score stats are removed. Either way, he has a decent enough lead over both at this point.

You really need to stop quoting naked +/-. Especially when the second best player on the team plays 95% of his min with RWB on the floor.

I very well might be giving Harden more credit for the elite Hou offense than he deserves. But he has been far better defensively than in years past as well. I am curious to see if he will be able to keep that up through the dog days of Feb/Mar.

So, essentially if something is showing an idea you disagree with, it should be disregarded. Because at this point there's nothing to show Harden is lifting Houston's defense. And that's been why they're winning. They both lift the offense the same. That's true in on/off and RPM. I think you need to use all information available, which is what I'm showing here. If you'd like to disregard minutes with Adams/Roberson/Dipo, disregard Harden's time with Bev/Ariza/Gordon.

Also, if you're measuring Westbrook here, he's played 252 minutes without Adams, net rating about 8.5. Harden about 900 w/o Bev and a net rating about 9.5. My only use for on/off with the smaller sample was to attempt to show it isn't Adams who's a great offensive weapon. I didn't think that's a stretch given the total lack of evidence showing him to be one, from box score to plus/minus to on/off.

And finally, believe it or not raw on/off can be a useful piece of information. Not the only one, but one.

I don't even know what you're contending at this point, but at this point in the year Harden leads because he's having a similar season individually to Westbrook with better team success. It feels like you're sort of arguing to argue as I made a simple point and have kept that point. Happens to be that the team success seems largely due to the return of Beverly increasing the team's defensive ability, which was a surprise to me. If you told me preseason they'd be top 10 in defense and totally healthy I'd have said the Rockets would both be a fantastic team and wouldn't have believed you. But here we are and both are happening since 12/1.

[Triples333]

Individual stats are close Bondom you OKC superfan you ; ). But the reality is that Houston has a (decently) better record than the 1 seed Cavs and OKC was projected to have a better record than Houston (hint: not. close). These things matter, majorly.

[bondom34]

Individual stats are close Bondom you OKC superfan you ; ). But the reality is that Houston has a (decently) better record than the 1 seed Cavs and OKC was projected to have a better record than Houston (hint: not. close). These things matter, majorly.

Which is why I said Harden will win. But they're winning due not solely to him.

[Triples333]

Individual stats are close Bondom you OKC superfan you ; ). But the reality is that Houston has a (decently) better record than the 1 seed Cavs and OKC was projected to have a better record than Houston (hint: not. close). These things matter, majorly.

Which is why I said Harden will win. But they're winning due not solely to him.

Correct. MVP needs a narrative. Which I will say between Westbrook's massive favoritism preseason + the 3×2, this won't be an open-shut case. January (as I have stated earlier) is his make or break month. Already 1 impressive win. He is far from done.

[bondom34]

Individual stats are close Bondom you OKC superfan you ; ). But the reality is that Houston has a (decently) better record than the 1 seed Cavs and OKC was projected to have a better record than Houston (hint: not. close). These things matter, majorly.

Which is why I said Harden will win. But they're winning due not solely to him.

Correct. MVP needs a narrative. Which I will say between Westbrook's massive favoritism preseason + the 3×2, this won't be an open-shut case. January (as I have stated earlier) is his make or break month. Already 1 impressive win. He is far from done.

TBH, as big a fan as I am, Harden shoulda won 2 years ago. Just want OKC to get to 46 wins, I have a sig bet w/ tsherkin if they get there .

[ken6199]

What Harden's been doing this season is essentially what he did two years ago, except in a better system and surrounded with (much) better shooters, minus a high ego inefficient post player.

He is doing this without playing with another historical shooter who is capable of knocking down 37 points in a quarter, a DPOY candidate who constantly flirts with triple doubles, a FMVP caliber player who can literally do everything on the court while also locking down opponent's best player, unlike someone else 2 years ago.

This is of course not a knock on someone else, who I think also deserved the MVP two years ago (though not as much as Harden), it just shows this Most Valuable Player is not really about 'the most valuable', not strictly.

If Westbrook gets OKC close to 50W and finishes the season close to a triple double, I have no problems of him winning it this year.

[HurricaneKid]

I think ESPNs RAPM is REALLY box score influenced. I would be interested to see NPI RAPM for this year. I think its evident that LBJ would be substantially ahead of both when sox score stats are removed. Either way, he has a decent enough lead over both at this point.

You really need to stop quoting naked +/-. Especially when the second best player on the team plays 95% of his min with RWB on the floor.

I very well might be giving Harden more credit for the elite Hou offense than he deserves. But he has been far better defensively than in years past as well. I am curious to see if he will be able to keep that up through the dog days of Feb/Mar.

So, essentially if something is showing an idea you disagree with, it should be disregarded. Because at this point there's nothing to show Harden is lifting Houston's defense. And that's been why they're winning. They both lift the offense the same. That's true in on/off and RPM. I think you need to use all information available, which is what I'm showing here. If you'd like to disregard minutes with Adams/Roberson/Dipo, disregard Harden's time with Bev/Ariza/Gordon.

Also, if you're measuring Westbrook here, he's played 252 minutes without Adams, net rating about 8.5. Harden about 900 w/o Bev and a net rating about 9.5. My only use for on/off with the smaller sample was to attempt to show it isn't Adams who's a great offensive weapon. I didn't think that's a stretch given the total lack of evidence showing him to be one, from box score to plus/minus to on/off.

And finally, believe it or not raw on/off can be a useful piece of information. Not the only one, but one.

I don't even know what you're contending at this point, but at this point in the year Harden leads because he's having a similar season individually to Westbrook with better team success. It feels like you're sort of arguing to argue as I made a simple point and have kept that point. Happens to be that the team success seems largely due to the return of Beverly increasing the team's defensive ability, which was a surprise to me. If you told me preseason they'd be top 10 in defense and totally healthy I'd have said the Rockets would both be a fantastic team and wouldn't have believed you. But here we are and both are happening since 12/1.

Not at all. I stay consistent about the stats I like and don't like. Intellectual integrity is important to me. But even the ones I like can be quite flawed without substantial data sets. I would contend that YOU are the one that picks and chooses and end up on some fairly dubious footing from time to time. When I'm not "making an argument" I'm mostly just pointing out to the board that you are using flawed data sets or using data sets improperly.

Here, you point to NET Rating, which is the difference between offensive and defensive ratings when you are on the floor, and say that "Adams isn't a great offensive player". When you are discussing NET, you are INHERENTLY using +/- on BOTH sides of the ball. So while Adams isn't a great offensive player (he is certainly better than you have been suggesting), he doesn't have to be to impact Westbrook's NET Rating. The fact that 95% of Adams' minutes come with RWB on the floor and Adams is a +7.8 defensively MEANS RWB is gaining a benefit to his Net rating because of Adams' defense.

I think you are an outstanding poster and you have moved my opinion re: Westbrook given rebounds to get to the open floor faster, etc. But you also attempt to use stats incorrectly on a fairly regular basis. Most of these stats show one specific thing. To use them to attempt to show another is fundamentally erroneous.

[PeptoKlepto]

And these guys have played w/o Russ. Adams played 62 minutes with a TS of 50.

To be clear, Bondom is suggesting that a player who has now played >1200 min that has played 62 min without RWB on the floor with him (that means 94.9% of his min come with RWB on the floor), IS STAGGERED and those ~15 shots he has taken without RWB on the floor are somehow statistically relevant.

You argue some really good points Bondom. This is not one of them.

That Adams isn't a great offensive weapon? He's getting there. But is he a great weapon? He's not a negative, but he's not a guy you go to to score. OKC doesn't have a single player sans Westbrook to do that with reliably.

Westbrook's offensive help is light years behind Harden's and I don't see how that's deniable.

Also to reiterate, please read the thread. I solved this w/ KChile a day ago, yet you still don't read and quote 3 day old posts.

Consistently disrespecting and underrating your own players in an effort to prop up Russell Westbrook isn't a good look, IMO.

[PeptoKlepto]

Lol @ Harden deserving the MVP over Steph two years ago. As if what he is doing this year is somehow any validation.

[bondom34]

Not at all. I stay consistent about the stats I like and don't like. Intellectual integrity is important to me. But even the ones I like can be quite flawed without substantial data sets. I would contend that YOU are the one that picks and chooses and end up on some fairly dubious footing from time to time. When I'm not "making an argument" I'm mostly just pointing out to the board that you are using flawed data sets or using data sets improperly.

Here, you point to NET Rating, which is the difference between offensive and defensive ratings when you are on the floor, and say that "Adams isn't a great offensive player". When you are discussing NET, you are INHERENTLY using +/- on BOTH sides of the ball. So while Adams isn't a great offensive player (he is certainly better than you have been suggesting), he doesn't have to be to impact Westbrook's NET Rating. The fact that 95% of Adams' minutes come with RWB on the floor and Adams is a +7.8 defensively MEANS RWB is gaining a benefit to his Net rating because of Adams' defense.

I think you are an outstanding poster and you have moved my opinion re: Westbrook given rebounds to get to the open floor faster, etc. But you also attempt to use stats incorrectly on a fairly regular basis. Most of these stats show one specific thing. To use them to attempt to show another is fundamentally erroneous.

I think you are reading something wrong, because I'm not saying Adams isn't good offensively because of net rating here. I'm saying that based on LITERALLY EVERYTHING.

[bondom34]

To be clear, Bondom is suggesting that a player who has now played >1200 min that has played 62 min without RWB on the floor with him (that means 94.9% of his min come with RWB on the floor), IS STAGGERED and those ~15 shots he has taken without RWB on the floor are somehow statistically relevant.

You argue some really good points Bondom. This is not one of them.

That Adams isn't a great offensive weapon? He's getting there. But is he a great weapon? He's not a negative, but he's not a guy you go to to score. OKC doesn't have a single player sans Westbrook to do that with reliably.

Westbrook's offensive help is light years behind Harden's and I don't see how that's deniable.

Also to reiterate, please read the thread. I solved this w/ KChile a day ago, yet you still don't read and quote 3 day old posts.

Consistently disrespecting and underrating your own players in an effort to prop up Russell Westbrook isn't a good look, IMO.

So you really think they're comparable offensively? Would love to see that case made statistically. Please do, I'm sure you can.

[PeptoKlepto]

That Adams isn't a great offensive weapon? He's getting there. But is he a great weapon? He's not a negative, but he's not a guy you go to to score. OKC doesn't have a single player sans Westbrook to do that with reliably.

Westbrook's offensive help is light years behind Harden's and I don't see how that's deniable.

Also to reiterate, please read the thread. I solved this w/ KChile a day ago, yet you still don't read and quote 3 day old posts.

Consistently disrespecting and underrating your own players in an effort to prop up Russell Westbrook isn't a good look, IMO.

So you really think they're comparable offensively? Would love to see that case made statistically. Please do, I'm sure you can.

Two different situations, but I don't think you're giving the talent around WB nearly enough credit as they deserve. You're acting like he's playing with D-Leaguers the way you're putting them down.

[bondom34]

Consistently disrespecting and underrating your own players in an effort to prop up Russell Westbrook isn't a good look, IMO.

So you really think they're comparable offensively? Would love to see that case made statistically. Please do, I'm sure you can.

Two different situations, but I don't think you're giving the talent around WB nearly enough credit as they deserve. You're acting like he's playing with D-Leaguers the way you're putting them down.

No please tell me how they're a better offensive cast than Harden's. I mean you're the one making snarky replies, if you're this smart I'd love to see the information. Or maybe you're just trying to look smart without actual information? That seems more likely.