theBigLip's Annual Standings Prediction

[theBigLip]

For better or worse, I put out a model every year to predict our final standings. It used to be to try and guess what lottery spot we would get, but now it is to see if we get into the playoffs, and if so, what seed. So here it comes again.

I know the model isn't perfect (what model is?), and it could be more sophisticated, but it seems to be a reasonable predictor and something that I can model in Excel and update rather easily. A few assumptions:
1. There are 3 levels of teams in the league - Great, Good and Bad. Great teams will always win. Bad teams will always lose. Good teams will win at home against another Good team, but lose on the road to a Good team.
2. Great teams are - Cleveland, Golden State, Houston, LA Clippers, and San Antonio. (Toronto is borderline, but Good for now).
3. Bad teams are - Brooklyn, Dallas, LA Lakers, Miami, Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Phoenix.

I'm very open to input on the team categorization. Also, it is easy to change them in case of a major injury or trade and everything in the model will recalculate.

So with all of that out of the way, here is what the model spits out for the East Standings (assuming Cleveland gets #1):

Predicted Remaining
# Team W L W L
2. Toronto (53-29) (27-16)
3. Boston (49-33) (24-18)
4. Atlanta (44-38) (22-21)
4. Washington (44-38) (25-19)
4. Milwaukee (44-38) (24-20)
7. Detroit (43-39) (25-15)
7. Indiana (43-39) (23-20)
--------------------------------------
9. Charlotte (41-41) (21-21)
10. Chicago (41-41) (22-20)
11. Orlando (41-41) (24-17)
12. New York (40-42) (22-20)

[theBigLip]

One good thing is since the Pistons are getting this West Coast trip out of the way, their remaining schedule is a bit easier, so we should be able to make up a few games on the other teams around us. Of course, KCP being hurt isn't a good thing. Hopefully we don't blow the Lakers game.

[theBigLip]

So here is Detroit's remaining schedule with predictions:

Sun, Jan 15 @ LA Lakers Bad Win 19 24
Wed, Jan 18 vs Atlanta Good Win 20 24
Sat, Jan 21 vs Washington Good Win 21 24
Mon, Jan 23 vs Sacramento Good Win 22 24
Sat, Jan 28 @ Miami Bad Win 23 24
Mon, Jan 30 @ Boston Good Loss 23 25
Wed, Feb 1 vs New Orleans Bad Win 24 25
Fri, Feb 3 vs Minnesota Bad Win 25 25
Sat, Feb 4 @ Indiana Good Loss 25 26
Mon, Feb 6 vs Philadelphia Bad Win 26 26
Wed, Feb 8 vs Los Angeles Bad Win 27 26
Fri, Feb 10 vs San Antonio Great Loss 27 27
Sun, Feb 12 @ Toronto Good Loss 27 28
Mon, Feb 13 @ Milwaukee Good Loss 27 29
Wed, Feb 15 vs Dallas Bad Win 28 29
Thu, Feb 23 vs Charlotte Good Win 29 29
Sun, Feb 26 vs Boston Good Win 30 29
Tue, Feb 28 vs Portland Good Win 31 29
Wed, Mar 1 @ New Orleans Bad Win 32 29
Sat, Mar 4 @ Philadelphia Bad Win 33 29
Mon, Mar 6 vs Chicago Good Win 34 29
Wed, Mar 8 @ Indiana Good Loss 34 30
Thu, Mar 9 vs Cleveland Great Loss 34 31
Sat, Mar 11 vs NY Knicks Good Win 35 31
Tue, Mar 14 @ Cleveland Great Loss 35 32
Wed, Mar 15 vs Utah Good Win 36 32
Fri, Mar 17 vs Toronto Good Win 37 32
Sun, Mar 19 vs Phoenix Bad Win 38 32
Tue, Mar 21 @ Brooklyn Bad Win 39 32
Wed, Mar 22 @ Chicago Good Loss 39 33
Fri, Mar 24 @ Orlando Good Loss 39 34
Mon, Mar 27 @ NY Knicks Good Loss 39 35
Tue, Mar 28 vs Miami Bad Win 40 35
Thu, Mar 30 vs Brooklyn Bad Win 41 35
Fri, Mar 31 @ Milwaukee Good Loss 41 36
Wed, Apr 5 vs Toronto Good Win 42 36
Fri, Apr 7 @ Houston Great Loss 42 37
Sun, Apr 9 @ Memphis Good Loss 42 38
Mon, Apr 10 vs Washington Good Win 43 38
Wed, Apr 12 @ Orlando Good Loss 43 39

[Han Solo]

38-44 for us

[Canadafan]

I'm as positive thinking as can be, but my quick math with that remaining schedule sadly gets me no better than .500 by years end

[TurboTitan]

36-46

[7r5ur]

40-42. Maybe that squeaks into the 8th seed for a proper beatdown from the Lebrons again.

[bballnmike]

How'd last years prediction turn out?

[DBC10]

Anything short of the 6th seed seems like a failed season no? We bolstered the bench and got significant improvement from our guys like Tobias and KCP.

36-40 wins seems like the realistic outcomes tbh.

[The Moose]

37-45 I think

[ElectricMayhem]

Looking at that, you're right - our remaining schedule is not that bad. I can definitely see us climbing back to (or even above) .500. On the other hand, if KCP is out an extended time I could easily see us folding. Without him I don't see where the mental toughness comes from.

You'll also see more teams tan...develop their youth as the season goes on (which may in part explain our late burst last year).

For what it's worth, ESPN still gives us a 58.7% chance of making the playoffs (40-42) and 538 puts us at a 37% chance (37-45).

If the Pistons play with pride and grit, they should definitely be in the mix for a playoff berth. If they fold up and go home like the Jazz game then the season is done. Certainly not the home court advantage we had hoped to obtain, but there are complex machinations that go into how a cookie crumbles. It cannot be controlled except perhaps with a finely employed cookie laser which would be too expensive to produce simply for the function of making a cookie crumble in a predictable manner.

[theBigLip]

How'd last years prediction turn out?

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=1429309

Certainly counted out Chicago early, knew it was going to be close between us and Washington, so I think it went reasonably well. Of course I update it weekly/daily/sporadically and if teams win a few they weren't suppose to, it shows up in the predicted standings. Anyway, for now, I would say the model is telling us life isn't quite as bad as it seems - we are losing on a west coast trip against good teams (and one great one) that we shouldn't expect to win. So if KCP comes back soon and 100%, I think we're in.

[El Chivo]

38-44 and 13th pick

[Pharaoh]

38-44 and 1st pick

Fixed it for you



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[ImHeisenberg]

In your model, do "bad teams" anticipate a loss in every game?

And, where did you place Detroit? Because they've been a "bad team" since December.

How accurate has your modeler been in recent seasons?

[ChipButty]

I'm not sure there are any "bad" teams in the West. Dallas, maybe. I'd definitely remove the Pelicans.

Regarding our playoff chances, I think the model is a little optimistic. It's predictive capabilities have suprised me in the past though, so who knows. I think it will paint a more accurate picture after the next 5 games. What did the model predict for our first 42 games?

[Snakebites]

The projection doesn't really take into account the downward trend we've seen with this team in the last month or so.

We better hope we make the playoffs though, because we're not getting a good lottery pick unless we have some of the best luck anyone's had in years.

[theBigLip]

In your model, do "bad teams" anticipate a loss in every game?

And, where did you place Detroit? Because they've been a "bad team" since December.

How accurate has your modeler been in recent seasons?

We are still a "good" team, at least for now. And yes, "bad" teams are anticipated to lose every game. Of course they will win a few but it does simplify the model.



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[Manocad]

I don't know. Like with the Tigers my Spidey senses tell me that this team this season is what they've been. I'm thinking a repeat of the first half and no playoffs.

[ImHeisenberg]

I don't know. Like with the Tigers my Spidey senses tell me that this team this season is what they've been. I'm thinking a repeat of the first half and no playoffs.

Agreed. I do not see a 25-15 run from this team. During the easiest run of the schedule this year, they got absolutely whipped.