Noel's Trade Value is at its Highest Now

[spikeslovechild]

I would have possibly agreed with that until this past FA off-season. However, if T. Mosgov can get a $16 million per year contract, M. Plumlee can get $12.5 million per year, A. Crabbe can get $18.5 million per year, and E. Turner can get $16.4 million per year (and there are many more), then Noel can clearly get a contract in that range, if not more so. All of those guys are role players at best, many of which are backups. Noel can start on many teams in this league and can be an elite rim protector in general. Are those other guys elite in any area at all? Sadly, this is what happened with the new TV contract and there is just too much money to spend, but I will be absolutely floored if Noel's next contract is not in this ballpark.

The problem with that logic is the Mosgov contract was stupid and clearly a mistake. Using that as a barometer and moving beyond that is not how to build a team. Nor is reacting to stupid money being thrown around by other GM's.

Then I guess 80% of them were mistakes. Turner, Mozgov, Deng, Crabbe, Horford, Noah, CJ. It's the new economics. With Noel, you're getting an elite defensive big who's young. If circumstances change in the next couple of years, you'll be able to move him. Doing so now with ZERO CAP PRESSURE and an incompetent coach is stupid.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/6/30/12052290/nba-free-agent-signings-tracker-2016-rumors

I'm not convinced we'll be able to move him. He's not worth max money based on what he has done the last 4 years. You are paying for potential. If that potential is not realized then his deal is toxic. Like Crabbe's deal is. It's also the question of how can we extract 20 million worth of value from him. Even if he is playing well in a backup role can we gets our monies worth if he is only impacting 15 minutes a night?

For me the answer is no. There is all this contorting that always gets involved with Noel to try and make the situation work. Why? He hasn't earned that. We ain't talking Lebron here where you have Bosh changing positions. Or Wade. He's Noel. He either makes sense from a financial standpoint and accepting of a backup role or he isn't.

[Kobblehead]

Miami seems to want to move on from Whiteside. Them having Noel would give them the insurance needed to make a separate deal to get rid of Hassan.

I would love to get Justise Winslow from them. He's had an injury plagued year and a shoulder surgery, so his stock is down. We might be able to pull a quick one on them.

[hookshot199]

The problem with that logic is the Mosgov contract was stupid and clearly a mistake. Using that as a barometer and moving beyond that is not how to build a team. Nor is reacting to stupid money being thrown around by other GM's.

Then I guess 80% of them were mistakes. Turner, Mozgov, Deng, Crabbe, Horford, Noah, CJ. It's the new economics. With Noel, you're getting an elite defensive big who's young. If circumstances change in the next couple of years, you'll be able to move him. Doing so now with ZERO CAP PRESSURE and an incompetent coach is stupid.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/6/30/12052290/nba-free-agent-signings-tracker-2016-rumors

I'm not convinced we'll be able to move him. He's not worth max money based on what he has done the last 4 years. You are paying for potential. If that potential is not realized then his deal is toxic. Like Crabbe's deal is. It's also the question of how can we extract 20 million worth of value from him. Even if he is playing well in a backup role can we gets our monies worth if he is only impacting 15 minutes a night?

For me the answer is no. There is all this contorting that always gets involved with Noel to try and make the situation work. Why? He hasn't earned that. We ain't talking Lebron here where you have Bosh changing positions. Or Wade. He's Noel. He either makes sense from a financial standpoint and accepting of a backup role or he isn't.

And there is an equal amount of 'contorting' to try to make it NOT work. I have no idea what generation of fan you are, what college teams and players you followed, or whether, more importantly, you can do basic arithmetic. Even if Noel is a bust and can't be traded - unlikely, but you're entitled to your opinion as I am to mine - he will be on the last year of his contract by the time our big paydays come up. It's that simple. And if you can't see the potential of having a Marcus Camby-like defender play alongside Embiid, then you can't see it. And if you didn't watch Camby as a young player or, more recently, Yoakim Noah, then you won't see Noel's potential.

If you disagree on a basketball point, fair enough. But stop this bullish*t about 'toxic contracts'. It doesn't apply to this case. Three years from now, yes. But not today.

[Ericb5]

Miami seems to want to move on from Whiteside. Them having Noel would give them the insurance needed to make a separate deal to get rid of Hassan.

I would love to get Justise Winslow from them. He's had an injury plagued year and a shoulder surgery, so his stock is down. We might be able to pull a quick one on them.

Noel for Winslow?

I mean, I would have taken that deal if Okafor and Embiid looked like they could work together, but since they can't, I don't think you can trade Noel for anything less than a star player(adding other assets to Noel to get one of course).




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[Negrodamus]

If I'm doing this, I'm doing Noel, Covington, and Ilyasova for Porter, Gortat, and their first. Gives them a boost on defense and offense. We get Porter and 2 more years of Gortat. We also get a 1st for taking Gortat off their hands.

[spikeslovechild]

Then I guess 80% of them were mistakes. Turner, Mozgov, Deng, Crabbe, Horford, Noah, CJ. It's the new economics. With Noel, you're getting an elite defensive big who's young. If circumstances change in the next couple of years, you'll be able to move him. Doing so now with ZERO CAP PRESSURE and an incompetent coach is stupid.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/6/30/12052290/nba-free-agent-signings-tracker-2016-rumors

I'm not convinced we'll be able to move him. He's not worth max money based on what he has done the last 4 years. You are paying for potential. If that potential is not realized then his deal is toxic. Like Crabbe's deal is. It's also the question of how can we extract 20 million worth of value from him. Even if he is playing well in a backup role can we gets our monies worth if he is only impacting 15 minutes a night?

For me the answer is no. There is all this contorting that always gets involved with Noel to try and make the situation work. Why? He hasn't earned that. We ain't talking Lebron here where you have Bosh changing positions. Or Wade. He's Noel. He either makes sense from a financial standpoint and accepting of a backup role or he isn't.

And there is an equal amount of 'contorting' to try to make it NOT work. I have no idea what generation of fan you are, what college teams and players you followed, or whether, more importantly, you can do basic arithmetic. Even if Noel is a bust and can't be traded - unlikely, but you're entitled to your opinion as I am to mine - he will be on the last year of his contract by the time our big paydays come up. It's that simple. And if you can't see the potential of having a Marcus Camby-like defender play alongside Embiid, then you can't see it. And if you didn't watch Camby as a young player or, more recently, Yoakim Noah, then you won't see Noel's potential.

If you disagree on a basketball point, fair enough. But stop this bullish*t about 'toxic contracts'. It doesn't apply to this case. Three years from now, yes. But not today.

How exactly is it bull? Almost all the deals you mentioned as reasons to extend Noel ARE toxic. Deng deal is. Crabbe deal is. Noah deal is. More importantly they are cap killers but at least in Crabbe and Deng case they are playing 30 mins a night so if they were playing well their deals had the potential to work out. In Noah case there was a real need at C after trading for Rose. In Noel case he'd be a backup playing 15 mins a night. That role isn't worth 20 million regardless of how he plays.

As far as a young Camby goes -- I don't want a young Camby -- I want the old Camby who was actually good. It reminds me of an old conversation I had way back when with a Raven fan compared a young rookie Kyle Boller to a young rookie Peyton Manning. He didn't end up being Peyton Manning. A couple of years later he compared him to Donovan Mcnabb because you know he also struggled his first couple years in the league. He didn't end up being Donovan Mcnabb either.

I say this because comparisons are fun. After Jahs rookie year I fell in the same trap after hearing Brett compare him to a young Karl Malone. After this season I feel very comfortable in saying that comparison has a very very low threshold of coming true. So no to answer your question I don't care if about your potential young Camby comparison even if Noel hadn't been in the league already four years. If he does become Camby great call me when he gets there. Hopefully, we won't be double booked when Okafor become Malone.

[hookshot199]

I'm not convinced we'll be able to move him. He's not worth max money based on what he has done the last 4 years. You are paying for potential. If that potential is not realized then his deal is toxic. Like Crabbe's deal is. It's also the question of how can we extract 20 million worth of value from him. Even if he is playing well in a backup role can we gets our monies worth if he is only impacting 15 minutes a night?

For me the answer is no. There is all this contorting that always gets involved with Noel to try and make the situation work. Why? He hasn't earned that. We ain't talking Lebron here where you have Bosh changing positions. Or Wade. He's Noel. He either makes sense from a financial standpoint and accepting of a backup role or he isn't.

And there is an equal amount of 'contorting' to try to make it NOT work. I have no idea what generation of fan you are, what college teams and players you followed, or whether, more importantly, you can do basic arithmetic. Even if Noel is a bust and can't be traded - unlikely, but you're entitled to your opinion as I am to mine - he will be on the last year of his contract by the time our big paydays come up. It's that simple. And if you can't see the potential of having a Marcus Camby-like defender play alongside Embiid, then you can't see it. And if you didn't watch Camby as a young player or, more recently, Yoakim Noah, then you won't see Noel's potential.

If you disagree on a basketball point, fair enough. But stop this bullish*t about 'toxic contracts'. It doesn't apply to this case. Three years from now, yes. But not today.

How exactly is it bull? Almost all the deals you mentioned as reasons to extend Noel ARE toxic. Deng deal is. Crabbe deal is. Noah deal is. More importantly they are cap killers but at least in Crabbe and Deng case they are playing 30 mins a night so if they were playing well their deals had the potential to work out. In Noah case there was a real need at C after trading for Rose. In Noel case he'd be a backup playing 15 mins a night. That role isn't worth 20 million regardless of how he plays.

As far as a young Camby goes -- I don't want a young Camby -- I want the old Camby who was actually good. It reminds me of an old conversation I had way back when with a Raven fan compared a young rookie Kyle Boller to a young rookie Peyton Manning. He didn't end up being Peyton Manning. A couple of years later he compared him to Donovan Mcnabb because you know he also struggled his first couple years in the league. He didn't end up being Donovan Mcnabb either.

I say this because comparisons are fun. After Jahs rookie year I fell in the same trap after hearing Brett compare him to a young Karl Malone. After this season I feel very comfortable in saying that comparison has a very very low threshold of coming true. So no to answer your question I don't care if about your potential young Camby comparison even if Noel hadn't been in the league already four years. If he does become Camby great call me when he gets there. Hopefully, we won't be double booked when Okafor become Malone.

(1) Then well over half of the signings are toxic. Check the list. In Philly's case, we don't have a cap problem for the next two years for sure - and probably three.

(2) You don't want a young Camby. That means you didn't watch him at U-Mass or when he played for the Knicks. You're just a bullsh*tter.

Enjoy your evening.

[spikeslovechild]

A) The signings are what they are. Do you have valid defense for them other then thats what they were signed for so thats what they are worth.

B) Thats not what that means at all. I live in Canada most of the year. I watched Camby first couple of years in the league along with Tmac. Mighty mouse. Along with those hideous early uniforms. I actually owned one. I probably have watched more young Camby then you have. WTF that means. I know what Camby was when he left. He didn't get max money by the way either.

[sixerswillrule]

I know what Camby was when he left. He didn't get max money by the way either.

You realize that if Noel got 19 mil per year like Crabbe, that wouldn't even be close to max money for him right? His max is 26 mil per year.

[spikeslovechild]

I know what Camby was when he left. He didn't get max money by the way either.

You realize that if Noel got 19 mil per year like Crabbe, that wouldn't even be close to max money for him right? His max is 26 mil per year.

?

What is your point? Just going off memory I think the Knick extension was something along the lines of 45 million when he could have gotten 70 million. I remember Tmac leaving shorty after for a contract in max range. So yeah.

Not sure what your point is singling out Crabbe they are just bad deals. Is his deal slightly less bad because he isn't getting max money? I mean I guess.

[LloydFree]

I know what Camby was when he left. He didn't get max money by the way either.

You realize that if Noel got 19 mil per year like Crabbe, that wouldn't even be close to max money for him right? His max is 26 mil per year.

Marcus Camby was making 8 million per year when the salary cap was 47 million. If Noel got 18 million per today, it would be roughly the same.

[sixerswillrule]

I know what Camby was when he left. He didn't get max money by the way either.

You realize that if Noel got 19 mil per year like Crabbe, that wouldn't even be close to max money for him right? His max is 26 mil per year.

?

What is your point? Just going off memory I think the Knick extension was something along the lines of 45 million when he could have gotten 70 million. I remember Tmac leaving shorty after for a contract in max range. So yeah.

Not sure what your point is singling out Crabbe they are just bad deals. Is his deal slightly less bad because he isn't getting max money? I mean I guess.

I could've picked a better line of yours to quote but my post had nothing to do with Camby but rather how you keep saying that Noel shouldn't get the max in response to people bringing up the contracts of Crabbe, Turner, Mozgov, Deng, and Noah. If Noel got a contract like one of theirs, it would be great because it wouldn't even be near the max. Not slightly less than the max, far less than the max. Huge difference between 16-19 mil and 26 mil.

[Kobblehead]

Still would rather offersheet KCP or Otto Porter this summer over extending Noel.

[hookshot199]

A) The signings are what they are. Do you have valid defense for them other then thats what they were signed for so thats what they are worth.

B) Thats not what that means at all. I live in Canada most of the year. I watched Camby first couple of years in the league along with Tmac. Mighty mouse. Along with those hideous early uniforms. I actually owned one. I probably have watched more young Camby then you have. WTF that means. I know what Camby was when he left. He didn't get max money by the way either.

Thank you for clearing that up. Then you should know more than others what Noel's potential is. In his first two years, having played only one year of college ball and having missed his rookie year, he averaged 10.5 ppg (Camby: 9.5), blocked 1.7 shots Camby (2.4), brought down 8.1 rebounds (Camby: 9.8), and made 1.8 steals (Camby: 1.0). Camby didn't become a steady rebounder until he was 26. Noel is 23.

Your contract argument - $18 mil is 17% of next year's cap.; $20 mil is 18.7%; $22 mil is 20.5% - isn't based on the new cap. And Noel won't get a 'super-max' contract. And no one else can offer him one. He's ours for four years.

And if Brown can't find a way to use him 30 mpg and play both backup and alongside Embiid, then Brown has to go. The guy deserved a free pass until he threw his player under the bus.

[HotelVitale]

VORP and BPM are related. His BPM is above average which is certainly considering grading fairly well (a 20 year old grading above average is actually impressive). His individual Net Rating is bad but his on/off split is +5.1 (was -5.1 last year).
He has made a leap though. He increased his usage while increasing his assist rate and decreasing his turnover rate (even if the decrease appears marginal, it's significant with the usage increase). He's increased at least slightly in just about every statistical measure including TS%, FTr, TRB%, STL%, BLK%. The only thing he's doing less of is getting to the rim.

Well, there's a difference between 'making a leap' and fumbling one step higher. His TS% has gone up 0% (and it's well below average), his steal% has upped .02%, block .03%, his TO% is down .05%, etc. You're not a lawyer for Russell, we can talk like regular human beings here--he has made very small improvements in most areas of his game, and he's still below average in most things (you just praised a guy's block% when he averages .4 per 36.) Stepping back and looking at the whole, he has pretty good volume on bad efficiency, with some solid steal and rebound rates for a guard. VORP and BPM put him around 130th in the league, which isn't bad but that's because of things like volume shooting and rebounding--but again there's a difference between being able to shoot and rebound at volume in the NBA and being good at those things, and Russell is still at the former.

(And, no, having a BPM above average isn't a wonderful or impressive sign for a second year player. It's not a bad thing but it doesn't mean you're already good and on the way to stardom. A guy like Tyler Johnson is rating much better than Russell this year and last because he's getting the ball in his hands and is doing some things with it--but he still figures to be a back-up guy overall, isn't good enough at things to suggest he's on his way to being great.)

[HotelVitale]

it would be great because it wouldn't even be near the max. Not slightly less than the max, far less than the max. Huge difference between 16-19 mil and 26 mil.

That's true, but it's also much much less of a difference than it was back before the cap jump. With the cap about to be at $102m, $7m is about half what it was back in the 2000s. (I.e., Noel signing for 26m rather than 19m is like signing for $15m instead of $12m back then).

[sixerswillrule]

it would be great because it wouldn't even be near the max. Not slightly less than the max, far less than the max. Huge difference between 16-19 mil and 26 mil.

That's true, but it's also much much less of a difference than it was back before the cap jump. With the cap about to be at $102m, $7m is about half what it was back in the 2000s. (I.e., Noel signing for 26m rather than 19m is like signing for $15m instead of $12m back then).

19 is to 26 what 11 is to 15.
27 percent less is significant in 2017, 2007, or 1967.

[rzzzzz]

i'm inclined to offer him $750,000 per minute he averages for us, by the time Embiid is off his minutes restriction. that means if he only plays back-up center, he will surely want to go elsewhere. BUT, if he can succeed in sharing the court (ie. Joel/Noel can be effective), then he'll make out great.

[GlenRiceARoni]

I am impressed there are a few people in this thread who get it completely but a few are being obtuse. Let me throw my hat in the ring.

Okay for starters Noel is getting ~$24- $26m per year, period. You can bank on at least one team offering him that. Any talk about what he's really "worth" relative to other past or present FA's is irrelevant because that's what he's getting as a free agent.

First of all, Noel is a RFA at the end of the year. That means there are three elements that determine his true "current value" as a trade chip.

1) What he can contribute to a team for the remainder of the season. This has limited value as there simply aren't many teams vying to contend in a GSW runaway year. Its likely that no one will risk many future assets just for a half season of Noel as a "rental". Surely we can all agree upon this.

2) You gain the "restricted" option on Noel which means you can go over the cap to match an offer on Noel. This has some value for a capped out team like Portland who is desperate for a defensive anchor. But considering the amount of $ he will be signing for this could push a team deep into the luxury tax which limits his appeal as a trade target unless that team can unload unwanted contracts in exchange for Noel. Most teams in this boat will just be told to make do with what they've got. They certainly won't be lining up to trade away elite prospects or draft picks for the right to overpay Noel and push themselves deep into the luxury tax.

3) If you have cap space but are a team that has trouble attracting free agents or feel Philly will just match any offer you can obtain his services when you were unlikely to obtain them on the open market.

This has some value for desperate teams but doesn't have "economic value" unless he greatly outperforms expectations because you will be forced to pay him his "market value" which figures to be at or near his max of $26m/yr.

Bottom line is he has extremely limited value in a trade.

If Philly re-signs him at the max Noel is not an asset unless some team assigns a premium value to Noel and decides he is worth decidedly more than his new contract. That's somewhat unlikely.

He is a potential liability with injury or underperformance risk. The center market is bloated and he will not be easy to move without attaching assets or taking on bad contracts in return.

There is a high likelihood he will be glued to the bench with his cap space wasted rather than properly allocated to someone who can play alongside Embiid/Simmons.

I agree there is a chance the three could play together but it would be suboptimal lineup construction at best.

Some people think he's a good insurance plan if Embiid gets injured but the reality is this team PROBABLY ain't winning a title if Embiid gets injured on a max deal. So it's silly to prioritize an insurance plan over a best case scenario plan.


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[GlenRiceARoni]

Finally, all the people saying "this is the new going rate for ______" are wrong.

We just had a dramatic increase in the salary cap. Its the very definition of inflation. Too much money chasing too few goods.

As the cap settles to a normal rate of growth after next offseason the deals signed this coming offseason are going to look horrible. Average starters making the max, role players making 15-20% of the cap, and BAD players making 7 figures?!

There's a lot of fanbases out there who are extremely lucky these are only four year deals. Most of these deals come with little to no potential upside. This is the offseason to sit out and wait to bargain hunt the next two seasons when the funny money dries up.

Think about it. Most of the good teams are already capped out. And the young teams (Minny, Milwaukee, Lakers) are concerned about holding enough room to retain all their core pieces. You've got supermaxes on the way to absorb big dollars, rookie scale contracts going up, young guys negotiating extensions, good vets needing new deals, and all the bums who got monster deals this year taking up space. While the only deals dropping off the books were the ~$5m/yr ones signed prior to knowledge of the TV deal. There ain't gonna be sixteen teams left jockeying to put Evan Turner on the Forbes 500 list.

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