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Official Thread -- Wizards vs Sixers (1/14/17 8PM)

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Re: RE: Re: Official Thread -- Wizards vs Sixers (1/14/17 8PM) 

Post#181 » by NatP4 » Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:35 am

payitforward wrote:
NatP4 wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:Yup, Satoransky was alright. He attacked the basket nicely, filled up the box score a bit with a few boards and assists, and played really good defense. He didn't make a field goal but got to the line 4 times.

Sent from my LG-D851 using RealGM mobile app

I hope people realize that those drives to the bucket where he got a slight step on his man and couldn't quite finish are plays that he will finish once he's confident again and not hesitating while out there.

Please post a link to where you got your crystal ball. I need one of those!

You're starting to sound like Hands, Nat.


As long as I don't start sounding like you, I'm good
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Re: RE: Re: Official Thread -- Wizards vs Sixers (1/14/17 8PM) 

Post#182 » by montestewart » Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:24 am

NatP4 wrote:
payitforward wrote:
NatP4 wrote:I hope people realize that those drives to the bucket where he got a slight step on his man and couldn't quite finish are plays that he will finish once he's confident again and not hesitating while out there.

Please post a link to where you got your crystal ball. I need one of those!

You're starting to sound like Hands, Nat.


As long as I don't start sounding like you, I'm good

Each poster brings a unique voice to the Wiz board. Some posters fashion an original persona from the Urth, while others affect a voice preexisting in cultural iconography. Here is my model for quality posting:



Mr. Whipple would have made a fine NBA ref
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Re: RE: Re: Official Thread -- Wizards vs Sixers (1/14/17 8PM) 

Post#183 » by payitforward » Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:44 am

NatP4 wrote:
payitforward wrote:
NatP4 wrote:I hope people realize that those drives to the bucket where he got a slight step on his man and couldn't quite finish are plays that he will finish once he's confident again and not hesitating while out there.

Please post a link to where you got your crystal ball. I need one of those!

You're starting to sound like Hands, Nat.

As long as I don't start sounding like you, I'm good

You have nothing to worry about, Nat, trust me.
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Re: Official Thread -- Wizards vs Sixers (1/14/17 8PM) 

Post#184 » by payitforward » Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:47 am

tontoz wrote:Point differential is a pretty good predictor of future record. We are at -.3 now. When you take into account that we have had an easier than average schedule and have played more home games than road games, the odds are we won't finish with a winning record.

http://www.espn.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS

Good "point", tontoz ("point" -- get that?)
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Re: RE: Re: Official Thread -- Wizards vs Sixers (1/14/17 8PM) 

Post#185 » by bsilver » Mon Jan 16, 2017 5:07 am

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
bsilver wrote:
payitforward wrote:Actually, what "you can't do" is the stuff you just did. You moved losses into the win column. We've also had some close wins, where fans of the other team could point to "if only" stuff and move their loss into their win column.

Anyway, you seem to be confusing a projection with a prediction -- 538 isn't "projecting", they're "predicting." I'm not "predicting" anything. Just using the only real data we have -- our home and road records.

We're a game over .500, but we've played 22 games at home & only 17 on the road. In other words, 39 wins is the "everybody stays healthy projection." As healthy as they've been that is.

Keep in mind that percentage-wise our home record is way ahead of where it's been in any recent season. When's the last time we went 30-11 at home? Yet, that's in the projection too, along with the road record.

Our home record could get worse. Our road record could improve. Who knows? But I think there's reason to worry. In particular, our schedule is pretty brutal, esp. in March/April.

Projecting is only useful if there's sufficient data. A projection made after the 6-12 start would have been for a 28-44 season. Who's to say the 20-19 current record is adequate for a projection?
Also ignored is team improvement. After the 6-12 start, they are 14-7. Maybe the 14-7 Wizards are the "real" Wizards that reflect team improvements made by coaches/players. There was bound to be an adjustment period with a new coach and many new players. If we ignore the 6-12 start and say the 14-7 team is the true team, then the record projects out to be about 46-36.
Also ignored is any future improvements. Maybe Mahinmi comes back and has an impact. Maybe a signing or trade improves our horrible bench.

Projections are useless unless previous data is sufficient, and there will not be future changes.

Not to get political, but what if we looked at global temperatures over the last hundred years. A projection would show temperatures rising at a much more modest rate than if we looked at the last 20 years. Maybe the best projection is to look at recent temperatures, and maybe the best Wizard projection is to look at more recent performance.


I'm sure you meant 28-54 (but, the more accurate PROJECTION following 6-12 would have been 27-55)

My bad arithmetic. To be totally accurate mathematically- 27.333 - 54.666
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics — quote popularized by Mark Twain.
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Re: RE: Re: Official Thread -- Wizards vs Sixers (1/14/17 8PM) 

Post#186 » by bsilver » Mon Jan 16, 2017 6:09 am

payitforward wrote:
bsilver wrote:
payitforward wrote:Actually, what "you can't do" is the stuff you just did. You moved losses into the win column. We've also had some close wins, where fans of the other team could point to "if only" stuff and move their loss into their win column.

Anyway, you seem to be confusing a projection with a prediction -- 538 isn't "projecting", they're "predicting." I'm not "predicting" anything. Just using the only real data we have -- our home and road records.

We're a game over .500, but we've played 22 games at home & only 17 on the road. In other words, 39 wins is the "everybody stays healthy projection." As healthy as they've been that is.

Keep in mind that percentage-wise our home record is way ahead of where it's been in any recent season. When's the last time we went 30-11 at home? Yet, that's in the projection too, along with the road record.

Our home record could get worse. Our road record could improve. Who knows? But I think there's reason to worry. In particular, our schedule is pretty brutal, esp. in March/April.

Projecting is only useful if there's sufficient data. A projection made after the 6-12 start would have been for a 28-44 season. Who's to say the 20-19 current record is adequate for a projection?
Also ignored is team improvement. After the 6-12 start, they are 14-7. Maybe the 14-7 Wizards are the "real" Wizards that reflect team improvements made by coaches/players. There was bound to be an adjustment period with a new coach and many new players. If we ignore the 6-12 start and say the 14-7 team is the true team, then the record projects out to be about 46-36.
Also ignored is any future improvements. Maybe Mahinmi comes back and has an impact. Maybe a signing or trade improves our horrible bench.

Projections are useless unless previous data is sufficient, and there will not be future changes.

Not to get political, but what if we looked at global temperatures over the last hundred years. A projection would show temperatures rising at a much more modest rate than if we looked at the last 20 years. Maybe the best projection is to look at recent temperatures, and maybe the best Wizard projection is to look at more recent performance.

Sigh...

What you mean is that projections aren't predictive. They aren't "useful" in that sense. Which is what I said in the post you'd like to argue with.

You are right: "Maybe Mahinmi comes back and has an impact" or maybe he comes back & has no impact. Or maybe he doesn't come back. Or maybe we make a trade & get better. Or worse. Or suffer an injury. Or...

But, that doesn't mean projections are useless. Let me demonstrate: "After the 6-12 start", we were 5-3 at home, which projects to 25-26 home wins, & 1-9 on the road, which projects to 4-5 road wins. IOW, we projected to a max 31 wins.

Suppose we include 1 more game -- we beat the Nets on their court. At 7-12, we are still 5-3 at home (25-6 wins), but now we are 2-9 on the road, which projects to 7-8 wins -- we project to a 34 win season.

In other words, our 13-7 record since the Nets win has lifted us to a projection of 4 more wins. Not that big a difference, huh? & why is that? Because 12 of those 20 games were at home.

Projections aren't predictions. Projections are information. Useful information.

Sigh, sigh, sigh...
There's an actually an eye-roll smilie so I'll add that to the argument :roll:
What if the starting point of the projection is the beginning of the 11 game home win streak? I imagine that projection would turn out pretty good. 11-0 at home, and 2-6 on the road. We'll win all 20 remaining home games, and go 6-17 (or 5-18) on the road for the 23 road games, for a final record of 45 or 46 wins.
So, we have competing projections - one based on the entire season's worth of data, and another using the last 19 games.
IMO projections are only useful information when combined with analysis. What if Lebron missed the first 20 games of season and the Cavs went 5-15 and when he returned they went 15-5, for a 20-20 record. The projection would be a 41-41 season. Not very useful. An analysis of the data would lead to throwing out the first 20 games to make a worthwhile projection.

As others have mentioned, it's common for NBA teams to improve, and the Wiz certainly have. In these cases the early part of the season should be thrown out when trying to make a useful projection.
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics — quote popularized by Mark Twain.
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Re: RE: Re: Official Thread -- Wizards vs Sixers (1/14/17 8PM) 

Post#187 » by payitforward » Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:46 pm

bsilver wrote:
payitforward wrote:
bsilver wrote:Projecting is only useful if there's sufficient data. A projection made after the 6-12 start would have been for a 28-44 season. Who's to say the 20-19 current record is adequate for a projection?
Also ignored is team improvement. After the 6-12 start, they are 14-7. Maybe the 14-7 Wizards are the "real" Wizards that reflect team improvements made by coaches/players. There was bound to be an adjustment period with a new coach and many new players. If we ignore the 6-12 start and say the 14-7 team is the true team, then the record projects out to be about 46-36.
Also ignored is any future improvements. Maybe Mahinmi comes back and has an impact. Maybe a signing or trade improves our horrible bench.

Projections are useless unless previous data is sufficient, and there will not be future changes.

Not to get political, but what if we looked at global temperatures over the last hundred years. A projection would show temperatures rising at a much more modest rate than if we looked at the last 20 years. Maybe the best projection is to look at recent temperatures, and maybe the best Wizard projection is to look at more recent performance.

Sigh...

What you mean is that projections aren't predictive. They aren't "useful" in that sense. Which is what I said in the post you'd like to argue with.

You are right: "Maybe Mahinmi comes back and has an impact" or maybe he comes back & has no impact. Or maybe he doesn't come back. Or maybe we make a trade & get better. Or worse. Or suffer an injury. Or...

But, that doesn't mean projections are useless. Let me demonstrate: "After the 6-12 start", we were 5-3 at home, which projects to 25-26 home wins, & 1-9 on the road, which projects to 4-5 road wins. IOW, we projected to a max 31 wins.

Suppose we include 1 more game -- we beat the Nets on their court. At 7-12, we are still 5-3 at home (25-6 wins), but now we are 2-9 on the road, which projects to 7-8 wins -- we project to a 34 win season.

In other words, our 13-7 record since the Nets win has lifted us to a projection of 4 more wins. Not that big a difference, huh? & why is that? Because 12 of those 20 games were at home.

Projections aren't predictions. Projections are information. Useful information.

Sigh, sigh, sigh...
There's an actually an eye-roll smilie so I'll add that to the argument :roll:
What if the starting point of the projection is the beginning of the 11 game home win streak? I imagine that projection would turn out pretty good. 11-0 at home, and 2-6 on the road. We'll win all 20 remaining home games, and go 6-17 (or 5-18) on the road for the 23 road games, for a final record of 45 or 46 wins.
So, we have competing projections - one based on the entire season's worth of data, and another using the last 19 games.
IMO projections are only useful information when combined with analysis. What if Lebron missed the first 20 games of season and the Cavs went 5-15 and when he returned they went 15-5, for a 20-20 record. The projection would be a 41-41 season. Not very useful. An analysis of the data would lead to throwing out the first 20 games to make a worthwhile projection.

As others have mentioned, it's common for NBA teams to improve, and the Wiz certainly have. In these cases the early part of the season should be thrown out when trying to make a useful projection.

Once again, you repeat my point as if repeating it disproved it. Yes, you are right, cherry picking the start & end of the data set will give you different projections. That was what I said!

Then you point out that projections are not predictive (your LeBron story). That too was what I said!

Then you said something completely idiotic: "it's common for NBA teams to improve". Think about it. NBA teams "improve" by increasing their winning %. But, NBA teams play other NBA teams. It can't be more common for teams to improve than it is for them to get worse.

Finally (& I do mean finally; if you continue on this subject I'm putting you on ignore, which I don't want to do b/c you write perfectly sensibly most of the time), the point of my projection was only to highlight the fact that our 20-19 record should be seen in the light of our having played way more games at home than on the road. That's all. The projection simply illustrates what happens when you do see it in that light. It makes it easy to see the effect of that fact. That's what is "useful" about it. That & only that.

In other words, the function of the projection is, to use your word, "analysis" -- not prediction. Clear? Now, please drop it.
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Re: RE: Re: Official Thread -- Wizards vs Sixers (1/14/17 8PM) 

Post#188 » by nate33 » Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:01 pm

payitforward wrote:Finally (& I do mean finally; if you continue on this subject I'm putting you on ignore, which I don't want to do b/c you write perfectly sensibly most of the time), the point of my projection was only to highlight the fact that our 20-19 record should be seen in the light of our having played way more games at home than on the road. That's all.


PIF, did you see my post on the Predict the Standings thread? The Wizards have actually played a more difficult schedule than most of our competition (ATL, CHA, IND and CHI). Of the teams right near us in the standings, only Milwaukee has played a tougher schedule, and not by much. So to bring things back into balance by the end of the year, we can expect an easier schedule than our closest competitors.

Furthermore, when the season is over, it is likely that our strength of schedule is going to be weaker in the Southwest Division than in the Central Division, so for yet another reason, our competition (mostly in the Central) is likely to face a more difficult schedule than us from here on out.
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Re: RE: Re: Official Thread -- Wizards vs Sixers (1/14/17 8PM) 

Post#189 » by bsilver » Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:54 pm

payitforward wrote:
bsilver wrote:
payitforward wrote:Sigh...

What you mean is that projections aren't predictive. They aren't "useful" in that sense. Which is what I said in the post you'd like to argue with.

You are right: "Maybe Mahinmi comes back and has an impact" or maybe he comes back & has no impact. Or maybe he doesn't come back. Or maybe we make a trade & get better. Or worse. Or suffer an injury. Or...

But, that doesn't mean projections are useless. Let me demonstrate: "After the 6-12 start", we were 5-3 at home, which projects to 25-26 home wins, & 1-9 on the road, which projects to 4-5 road wins. IOW, we projected to a max 31 wins.

Suppose we include 1 more game -- we beat the Nets on their court. At 7-12, we are still 5-3 at home (25-6 wins), but now we are 2-9 on the road, which projects to 7-8 wins -- we project to a 34 win season.

In other words, our 13-7 record since the Nets win has lifted us to a projection of 4 more wins. Not that big a difference, huh? & why is that? Because 12 of those 20 games were at home.

Projections aren't predictions. Projections are information. Useful information.

Sigh, sigh, sigh...
There's an actually an eye-roll smilie so I'll add that to the argument :roll:
What if the starting point of the projection is the beginning of the 11 game home win streak? I imagine that projection would turn out pretty good. 11-0 at home, and 2-6 on the road. We'll win all 20 remaining home games, and go 6-17 (or 5-18) on the road for the 23 road games, for a final record of 45 or 46 wins.
So, we have competing projections - one based on the entire season's worth of data, and another using the last 19 games.
IMO projections are only useful information when combined with analysis. What if Lebron missed the first 20 games of season and the Cavs went 5-15 and when he returned they went 15-5, for a 20-20 record. The projection would be a 41-41 season. Not very useful. An analysis of the data would lead to throwing out the first 20 games to make a worthwhile projection.

As others have mentioned, it's common for NBA teams to improve, and the Wiz certainly have. In these cases the early part of the season should be thrown out when trying to make a useful projection.

Once again, you repeat my point as if repeating it disproved it. Yes, you are right, cherry picking the start & end of the data set will give you different projections. That was what I said!

Then you point out that projections are not predictive (your LeBron story). That too was what I said!

Then you said something completely idiotic: "it's common for NBA teams to improve". Think about it. NBA teams "improve" by increasing their winning %. But, NBA teams play other NBA teams. It can't be more common for teams to improve than it is for them to get worse.

Finally (& I do mean finally; if you continue on this subject I'm putting you on ignore, which I don't want to do b/c you write perfectly sensibly most of the time), the point of my projection was only to highlight the fact that our 20-19 record should be seen in the light of our having played way more games at home than on the road. That's all. The projection simply illustrates what happens when you do see it in that light. It makes it easy to see the effect of that fact. That's what is "useful" about it. That & only that.

In other words, the function of the projection is, to use your word, "analysis" -- not prediction. Clear? Now, please drop it.

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Re: RE: Re: Official Thread -- Wizards vs Sixers (1/14/17 8PM) 

Post#190 » by penbeast0 » Mon Jan 16, 2017 5:53 pm

bsilver wrote:When you think the world can't get any crazier, there comes a put you on Ignore threat on RealGM. So be it.


1st sign of the Apocalypse . . . or the Trump Ascendancy, one or the other.
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Re: RE: Re: Official Thread -- Wizards vs Sixers (1/14/17 8PM) 

Post#191 » by montestewart » Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:37 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
bsilver wrote:When you think the world can't get any crazier, there comes a put you on Ignore threat on RealGM. So be it.


1st sign of the Apocalypse . . . or the Trump Ascendancy, one or the other.

"Go ahead and ignore me, someone else is waiting to give me all their attention."
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Re: RE: Re: Official Thread -- Wizards vs Sixers (1/14/17 8PM) 

Post#192 » by payitforward » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:29 am

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:Finally (& I do mean finally; if you continue on this subject I'm putting you on ignore, which I don't want to do b/c you write perfectly sensibly most of the time), the point of my projection was only to highlight the fact that our 20-19 record should be seen in the light of our having played way more games at home than on the road. That's all.

PIF, did you see my post on the Predict the Standings thread? The Wizards have actually played a more difficult schedule than most of our competition (ATL, CHA, IND and CHI). Of the teams right near us in the standings, only Milwaukee has played a tougher schedule, and not by much. So to bring things back into balance by the end of the year, we can expect an easier schedule than our closest competitors.

Furthermore, when the season is over, it is likely that our strength of schedule is going to be weaker in the Southwest Division than in the Central Division, so for yet another reason, our competition (mostly in the Central) is likely to face a more difficult schedule than us from here on out.

I did see it -- and I replied. All that's necessary is to keep in mind that we played that slightly more difficult schedule mostly at home. If you were to get a little more granular and look at our opponents strength on the road vs. their strength at home, the overall strength co-efficient would change some. Ditto for the teams around us in the standings.

Your point about Indiana was very well taken. But, e.g. the Hornets have played more on the road than at home -- versus our opposite weighting so far. I'd say their 20-20 record actually looks a little stronger than our 21-19 record for that reason. Ditto Milwaukee's 20-19 record, because of the same issue.

Overall you could say our playoff destiny depends heavily on two teams: Indiana has to pay the piper as their schedule gets more difficult. And Detroit has to continue to suck.

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