GlenRiceARoni wrote:Finally, all the people saying "this is the new going rate for ______" are wrong.
We just had a dramatic increase in the salary cap. Its the very definition of inflation. Too much money chasing too few goods.
As the cap settles to a normal rate of growth after next offseason the deals signed this coming offseason are going to look horrible. Average starters making the max, role players making 15-20% of the cap, and BAD players making 7 figures?!
There's a lot of fanbases out there who are extremely lucky these are only four year deals. Most of these deals come with little to no potential upside. This is the offseason to sit out and wait to bargain hunt the next two seasons when the funny money dries up.
Think about it. Most of the good teams are already capped out. And the young teams (Minny, Milwaukee, Lakers) are concerned about holding enough room to retain all their core pieces. You've got supermaxes on the way to absorb big dollars, rookie scale contracts going up, young guys negotiating extensions, good vets needing new deals, and all the bums who got monster deals this year taking up space. While the only deals dropping off the books were the ~$5m/yr ones signed prior to knowledge of the TV deal. There ain't gonna be sixteen teams left jockeying to put Evan Turner on the Forbes 500 list.
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I agree with your analysis in part. Practically speaking, there are only five teams that could offer him the max - $26 mil using your number. They include Brooklyn, Dallas, Minnesota, Phoenix and Denver. Phoenix and Denver won't be signing a big. So we've got three teams as payrolls currently stand and using a $107 mil cap figure.
Portland can't. Nor can Detroit, the Clippers, San Antonio, Memphis, Toronto, Washington, Milwaukee, Charlotte, Houston, Atlanta, the Knicks and Cleveland. Chicago can, but that would leave them with a 12-man roster sans Taj Gibson.
Boston could, perhaps, but they've got IT and Avery Bradley coming up the following June. Utah, Indiana and Golden State have other signing priorities.
So do I believe that Brooklyn or Dallas might offer him the max? Yes, I do. But for all practical purposes that's it. Two teams. Perhaps three counting Minnesota. But then what's he going to do about Dieng who's signed through June 2021.
Again, $26 mil? Possibly.
Then the downside for matching and trade value midway through the contract.
The first two years have no downside. We go into the season with payroll commitments of around $35 mil not counting cap holds for any draft picks. It's Season 3 and 4 that could be problematic - and Season 3 only if 'market value' is $26 mil as opposed to $18, $20 or $22 mil and if we decide to overpay on the free agency market for a player we might be drafting - Patty Mills, for instance. Or Ilyasova. If Ilyasova wants $30 mil for three years, he's probably worth it. But the question becomes: When do you turn over the keys to Saric?
So bottom line: Is it possible that Prokhorov or Mark Cuban will offer Noel the max? Yea. But since it doesn't hurt the Sixers payroll-wise for at least two years and possibly three, then you match.
It's a no-brainer. We're not going to sign any of the truly good free agents. Guys like Hayward will be offered 'super-max' deals by their existing teams. And the rest, as we've seen, were signed at extremely inflated contracts. Even good ones like Conley, McCollum and Horford were signed at super-inflated money.
Josh Harris isn't as rich as Prokhorov, but he's almost as rich as Cuban. He can afford signing Noel assuming your 'market value' figure proves correct - one year, probably, of luxury tax.
And if Brown can't manage the minutes for three centers through April, he's probably the wrong coach.
