2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread

[therealbig3]

Yea...do I really need to explain to you how On/Off is a flawed stat? At the end of the day, they won 5 games in the Playoffs without him. In the PLAYOFFS. Show me one other MVP who went out and his team actually had a better playoff winning % without him than with him (over a 5+ game sample size). Hell, actually, let's take out the MVP qualifier...show me one team that did better with their best player out (doesn't have to be MVP).

I'll wait bruh.

Yes, please do explain. Tell me how the Warriors, with Curry on the court were a +17 and when he's off they were a -4.3. Clearly it has nothing to do with Curry, right?

And the Warriors went 4-2 without Curry, and were on the verge of going 4-3 if it weren't Steph's record breaking 17 point OT. That game Steph was coming off the bench and was on minutes restriction...before he even stepped on the court the Warriors were down 16 points in Portland.

Warriors going 4-3 in the playoffs is supposed to convince us that they would've won over 60 games over the course of a long season w/o Curry? Hysterical.

LOL @ the mental gymnastics...let me practice some too!

Game 2 vs. Rockets - Curry played 0 mins - outcome? W by 9
Game 3 vs. Rockets - Curry played 0 mins - outcome? L by 1
Game 4 vs. Rockets - Curry played 18 mins, went 2-9 with 5 turnovers, injured. Outcome? W by 25, with a +- of 0 for Steph (you love this stat right?)
Game 5 vs. Rockets - Curry played 0 mins - outcome? W by 33

If you want to give Curry credit for the W in Game 4, it invalidates your godly +- stat. After all, that stat shows a 2-9 player with 5 turnovers as having no negative/positive impact...so they are 3-1 without any impact from Curry there, no? Or is your +- a flawed stat as I stated?

Game 1 vs. Blazers - Curry played 0 mins - outcome? W by 12
Game 2 vs. Blazers - Curry played 0 mins - outcome? W by 11
Game 3 vs. Blazers - Curry played 0 mins - outcome? L by 12

2-1 in this series without Curry...

If you can claim they would have gone 4-3 without him, I can claim they would have gone 5-1 without him (he had ZERO impact in Game 4 vs. Rockets).

Now imagine if the Warriors had a whole offseason, preseason, and season to prepare knowing they had no Curry...and not have to adjust to a freak injury in the playoffs? Or do you think so little of the great players on your team, and the great coach you have? Put down the other players to prop up your fave huh? Those players would adjust and the offense would adjust too, if given time. Easily a 60 win team.

You're trying way too hard to discredit Curry. Just say you don't like the dude and move on. Because your argument has no basis in facts.

Speaking of which, aren't the Spurs undefeated without Kawhi this year? He looks like way more of a system player than Curry does.

[Fico92]

Yes, please do explain. Tell me how the Warriors, with Curry on the court were a +17 and when he's off they were a -4.3. Clearly it has nothing to do with Curry, right?

And the Warriors went 4-2 without Curry, and were on the verge of going 4-3 if it weren't Steph's record breaking 17 point OT. That game Steph was coming off the bench and was on minutes restriction...before he even stepped on the court the Warriors were down 16 points in Portland.

Warriors going 4-3 in the playoffs is supposed to convince us that they would've won over 60 games over the course of a long season w/o Curry? Hysterical.

LOL @ the mental gymnastics...let me practice some too!

Game 2 vs. Rockets - Curry played 0 mins - outcome? W by 9
Game 3 vs. Rockets - Curry played 0 mins - outcome? L by 1
Game 4 vs. Rockets - Curry played 18 mins, went 2-9 with 5 turnovers, injured. Outcome? W by 25, with a +- of 0 for Steph (you love this stat right?)
Game 5 vs. Rockets - Curry played 0 mins - outcome? W by 33

If you want to give Curry credit for the W in Game 4, it invalidates your godly +- stat. After all, that stat shows a 2-9 player with 5 turnovers as having no negative/positive impact...so they are 3-1 without any impact from Curry there, no? Or is your +- a flawed stat as I stated?

Game 1 vs. Blazers - Curry played 0 mins - outcome? W by 12
Game 2 vs. Blazers - Curry played 0 mins - outcome? W by 11
Game 3 vs. Blazers - Curry played 0 mins - outcome? L by 12

2-1 in this series without Curry...

If you can claim they would have gone 4-3 without him, I can claim they would have gone 5-1 without him (he had ZERO impact in Game 4 vs. Rockets).

Now imagine if the Warriors had a whole offseason, preseason, and season to prepare knowing they had no Curry...and not have to adjust to a freak injury in the playoffs? Or do you think so little of the great players on your team, and the great coach you have? Put down the other players to prop up your fave huh? Those players would adjust and the offense would adjust too, if given time. Easily a 60 win team.

You're trying way too hard to discredit Curry. Just say you don't like the dude and move on. Because your argument has no basis in facts.

Speaking of which, aren't the Spurs undefeated without Kawhi this year? He looks like way more of a system player than Curry does.

Look back just two pages. Whole reason we are in this conversation is someone claiming that the Spurs without Kawhi would win 55+ games. This is based on the 4-0 record vs the 30th,28th, and 19th records in the league, and the Raptors missing their leading scorer. My rebuttal was that based on that logic, because the Warriors were able to do so well in the playoffs vs playoff teams, if Spurs are 55 win team without Leonard, Warriors woulda been 60+ without Curry. Not hating, just handing dude his L based on his flawed logic.

[Hero]

Great post on reddit on Westbrook's statpadding and the effect on OKC.

His opponents are driving on him with the 4th highest frequency while shooting 10.8% above average when guarded by Westbrook.

He's dead last in the NBA in contested shots in a position that leads the league in FGA. Westbrook's allowing his opponent 4.6 wide open(not within 6 feet) shots per game, which is 1.8 FGA higher than any other player in the league.'

In contrast with last season, overall, defenders are shooting 6% higher from the field, 2% higher from 3, 10% higher from 2, and 9% higher inside 10 feet this season vs Westbrook than they did in 2016.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/5qat1j/statistically_analysis_russell_westbrooks/

[ThomYorke]

Funnily enough WB probably played one of his best games for the season tonight, yet won't get the praise because he didn't get the magical triple double

[bondom34]

Great post on reddit on Westbrook's statpadding and the effect on OKC.

His opponents are driving on him with the 4th highest frequency while shooting 10.8% above average when guarded by Westbrook.

He's dead last in the NBA in contested shots in a position that leads the league in FGA. Westbrook's allowing his opponent 4.6 wide open(not within 6 feet) shots per game, which is 1.8 FGA higher than any other player in the league.'

In contrast with last season, overall, defenders are shooting 6% higher from the field, 2% higher from 3, 10% higher from 2, and 9% higher inside 10 feet this season vs Westbrook than they did in 2016.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/5qat1j/statistically_analysis_russell_westbrooks/

I don't really care to debate again, but it is on the PC board already.

Except he's not harming the defense, we've been over it on the PC board, but there's not a single other defensive metric against him. The team doesn't defend worse with him and that stat (DFG%) has been debunked multiple times by Nylon Calculus (unless you'd also consider Brandon Knight a lockdown perimeter defender).
http://fansided.com/2017/01/12/nylon-calculus-shot-defense-metrics-actions/

That post was a fun mix of misinformation and a poor use of information, fed by the hive mind of reddit.

Also, interesting enough Westbrook's supposed "stat padding" leaves him getting a nearly identical percentage of contested rebounds as Harden, Curry, and Durant.

[mtron929]

Great post on reddit on Westbrook's statpadding and the effect on OKC.

His opponents are driving on him with the 4th highest frequency while shooting 10.8% above average when guarded by Westbrook.

He's dead last in the NBA in contested shots in a position that leads the league in FGA. Westbrook's allowing his opponent 4.6 wide open(not within 6 feet) shots per game, which is 1.8 FGA higher than any other player in the league.'

In contrast with last season, overall, defenders are shooting 6% higher from the field, 2% higher from 3, 10% higher from 2, and 9% higher inside 10 feet this season vs Westbrook than they did in 2016.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/5qat1j/statistically_analysis_russell_westbrooks/

Except he's not harming the defense, we've been over it on the PC board, but there's not a single other defensive metric against him. The team doesn't defend worse with him and that stat (DFG%) has been debunked multiple times by Nylon Calculus (unless you'd also consider Brandon Knight a lockdown perimeter defender).

Do you at least acknowledge that it is indeed true that Westbrook really puts in minimal effort on defense on many occasions and completely lets his man go, while he roams around? That is, he has pretty much completely different standard on guarding his own guy compared to rest of his teammates? Admittedly, I haven't watched a lot of Thunder games but from what I have seen, the eye test matches the statistical data put forth from the reddit post.

To be honest, I really hate it when a player completely has a freedom to do whatever he wants on defense but cannot be held responsible due to his superstar stature. And Westbrook seems to qualify here.

[bondom34]

Great post on reddit on Westbrook's statpadding and the effect on OKC.



https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/5qat1j/statistically_analysis_russell_westbrooks/

Except he's not harming the defense, we've been over it on the PC board, but there's not a single other defensive metric against him. The team doesn't defend worse with him and that stat (DFG%) has been debunked multiple times by Nylon Calculus (unless you'd also consider Brandon Knight a lockdown perimeter defender).

Do you at least acknowledge that it is indeed true that Westbrook really puts in minimal effort on defense on many occasions and completely lets his man go, while he roams around? That is, he has pretty much completely different standard on guarding his own guy compared to rest of his teammates? Admittedly, I haven't watched a lot of Thunder games but from what I have seen, the eye test matches the statistical data put forth from the reddit post.

To be honest, I really hate it when a player completely has a freedom to do whatever he wants on defense but cannot be held responsible due to his superstar stature. And Westbrook seems to qualify here.

See my edit. He doesn't have complete freedom, and has been no worse or better than Harden defensively. It is a poor use of statistics, and use of poor statistics simultaneously.

The length at which people care to discredit that he's getting the same percentage uncontested rebounds is amazing. This whole "contested" rebounding thing is an amazing overanalysis.

[mtron929]

Except he's not harming the defense, we've been over it on the PC board, but there's not a single other defensive metric against him. The team doesn't defend worse with him and that stat (DFG%) has been debunked multiple times by Nylon Calculus (unless you'd also consider Brandon Knight a lockdown perimeter defender).

Do you at least acknowledge that it is indeed true that Westbrook really puts in minimal effort on defense on many occasions and completely lets his man go, while he roams around? That is, he has pretty much completely different standard on guarding his own guy compared to rest of his teammates? Admittedly, I haven't watched a lot of Thunder games but from what I have seen, the eye test matches the statistical data put forth from the reddit post.

To be honest, I really hate it when a player completely has a freedom to do whatever he wants on defense but cannot be held responsible due to his superstar stature. And Westbrook seems to qualify here.

See my edit. He doesn't have complete freedom, and has been no worse or better than Harden defensively. It is a poor use of statistics, and use of poor statistics simultaneously.

The length at which people care to discredit that he's getting the same percentage uncontested rebounds is amazing. This whole "contested" rebounding thing is an amazing overanalysis.

Not sure why you mentioned Harden here. The Reddit guy (who did a superb job, btw, in putting out a comprehensive report) highlighted the following.

1) Westbrook ranks dead last in the NBA in contested shots among players averaging 30 or more MPG by a considerable margin.

2) Westbrook has contested a grand total of 160 FG's on the ENTIRE SEASON (OKC backup PG Cameron Payne is averaging 4.1 contests per game while playing in less than half of the minutes that Westbrook is).

3) His opp. +6.9% over expected FG% is dead last in the NBA among guards. The only other players over 4.5% are Sean Kilpatrick, Kyle Korver, and Emmanuel Mudiay.

He does not have complete freedom but it is clear that he is ranks #1 at mailing it on defense compared to pretty much every NBA players in the league.

[bondom34]

Do you at least acknowledge that it is indeed true that Westbrook really puts in minimal effort on defense on many occasions and completely lets his man go, while he roams around? That is, he has pretty much completely different standard on guarding his own guy compared to rest of his teammates? Admittedly, I haven't watched a lot of Thunder games but from what I have seen, the eye test matches the statistical data put forth from the reddit post.

To be honest, I really hate it when a player completely has a freedom to do whatever he wants on defense but cannot be held responsible due to his superstar stature. And Westbrook seems to qualify here.

See my edit. He doesn't have complete freedom, and has been no worse or better than Harden defensively. It is a poor use of statistics, and use of poor statistics simultaneously.

The length at which people care to discredit that he's getting the same percentage uncontested rebounds is amazing. This whole "contested" rebounding thing is an amazing overanalysis.

Not sure why you mentioned Harden here. The Reddit guy (who did a superb job, btw, in putting out a comprehensive report) highlighted the following.

1) Westbrook ranks dead last in the NBA in contested shots among players averaging 30 or more MPG by a considerable margin.

2) Westbrook has contested a grand total of 160 FG's on the ENTIRE SEASON (OKC backup PG Cameron Payne is averaging 4.1 contests per game while playing in less than half of the minutes that Westbrook is).

3) His opp. +6.9% over expected FG% is dead last in the NBA among guards. The only other players over 4.5% are Sean Kilpatrick, Kyle Korver, and Emmanuel Mudiay.

He does not have complete freedom but it is clear that he is ranks #1 at mailing it on defense compared to pretty much every NBA players in the league.

I know, I read it. As I stated above, and posted, the metric he's using isn't good. The article posted shows it, as does the eye test. It is a poor measure of defense and every other defensive metric shows Westbrook to be a pretty average defender. RPM, BPM, lineups, WOWY, etc.

The r/nba author did what r/nba does, put up a bunch of links to stats and attempt to sound intelligent without actually knowing what he's talking about. r/nba eats that up. That's why I post on the PC board here when I want intelligent basketball conversation, not reddit.

[CnG]

I see some parallels between Harden's D last year and Russ' this year. There's been some utter cringeworthy moments in the clutch where Russ has fallen asleep or awfully gambled which has lead to a bucket. I think it gets scrutinised more on forums/reddit because it's overlooked by national media so much because he 'plays hard'. Same way his antics get overlooked because he 'angry' without a lot of backlash.

Still have it 1. Harden 2. Russ and then KD/Kawhi but Russ is definitely gaining ground on Harden as of late.

[bondom34]

I see some parallels between Harden's D last year and Russ' this year. There's been some utter cringeworthy moments in the clutch where Russ has fallen asleep or awfully gambled which has lead to a bucket. I think it gets scrutinised more on forums/reddit because it's overlooked by national media so much because he 'plays hard'. Same way his antics get overlooked because he 'angry' without a lot of backlash.

Still have it 1. Harden 2. Russ and then KD/Kawhi but Russ is definitely gaining ground on Harden as of late.

Except Russ's defensive numbers are miles better.

[QRich3]

While DFG% is a random stat that is no way to measure a guy's defensive efficacy, and that reddit post did a poor job of understanding it, I don't think there's any doubt that Westbrook's defense is completely awful if you just watch what he's doing for a second. If on/off numbers don't reflect that, it's just a testament to the guys that substitute him being just as bad.

He is lazy, gambles irresponsible, and sometimes flat out ignores his defensive responsibilities for no reason at all. There's just no way to defend that. And you could think he's just taking plays off to have energy on the other end, but he still does the same things in crunch time, so it's just bad habits, and it's frustrating because he could do so much better.

On the other hand, it's not like Harden has any sort of significant advantage over him on that end.

[Vator]

My honest unbiased opinion is Russell Westbrook is back in the lead.

1. Westbrook
2. Harden

I had Harden as MVP at the midway point and this is still fluid. I honestly think team success is going to play a major role. If Westbrook can get the Thunder to outperform expectations and win at a high level, it's his to lose. By that, I think they need to be a top 4 seed. If Harden can get the Rockets back on track and go into the postseason hot at the 2nd/3rd seed and around 60 wines, I think he will overtake him again.

You're talking about two guys putting up historic stat lines night in and night out so team success is going to play a major role in separating one from the other.

[Impuniti]

WB's chances are going to fall down a cliff all because of this

[bondom34]

http://dailythunder.com/russell-westbrook-triple-doubles-and-stat-padding-accusations/

[Inigo Montoya]

Don't know if it was posted before, but there is an article about adjusting Westbrook's stats to the pace of the Big O's team and the minutes Oscar Robertson played.

Pace adjusted, Westbrook would average: 38.4 points, 13.2 rebounds and 13.0 assists per game.
That is adjusting OKC's pace of 100.2 to Robertson’s Cincinnati Royals of around 125.

When accounted also for playing time, Westbrook would average: 49.1 points, 16.9 rebounds and 16.6 assists per game.
This is by adjusting Westbrook minutes (34.7) to Robertson's (44.3)
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/russell-westbrooks-remarkable-adjusted-statistics/

What Westbrook is doing is absolutely insane.

[Triples333]

Don't know if it was posted before, but there is an article about adjusting Westbrook's stats to the pace of the Big O's team and the minutes Oscar Robertson played.

Pace adjusted, Westbrook would average: 38.4 points, 13.2 rebounds and 13.0 assists per game.
That is adjusting OKC's pace of 100.2 to Robertson’s Cincinnati Royals of around 125.

When accounted also for playing time, Westbrook would average: 49.1 points, 16.9 rebounds and 16.6 assists per game.
This is by adjusting Westbrook minutes (34.7) to Robertson's (44.3)
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/russell-westbrooks-remarkable-adjusted-statistics/

What Westbrook is doing is absolutely insane.

Indeed, but to be fair, adjust all other statlines to that time and increase their mpg up 10 a night (much easier on paper, mind you. Likely not possible without significant diminishing returns in the current era) and you would have a lot of INSANE statlines. Pretty sure '95 Rodman is pushing 35 RPG under that criteria. LBJ has multiple 40+ point triple double seasons (as a top defender in the NBA), Curry's averaging >50 PPG on a 50/40/90 last year, etc etc. Bear in mind you're also adding in 3pt shots in comparison to a league that did not have a 3pt shot. That was a time when Oscar's triple double season nor Wilt's 50/25 season were good enough for MVP.

[Inigo Montoya]

Don't know if it was posted before, but there is an article about adjusting Westbrook's stats to the pace of the Big O's team and the minutes Oscar Robertson played.

Pace adjusted, Westbrook would average: 38.4 points, 13.2 rebounds and 13.0 assists per game.
That is adjusting OKC's pace of 100.2 to Robertson’s Cincinnati Royals of around 125.

When accounted also for playing time, Westbrook would average: 49.1 points, 16.9 rebounds and 16.6 assists per game.
This is by adjusting Westbrook minutes (34.7) to Robertson's (44.3)
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/russell-westbrooks-remarkable-adjusted-statistics/

What Westbrook is doing is absolutely insane.

Indeed, but to be fair, adjust all other statlines to that time and increase their mpg up 10 a night (much easier on paper, mind you. Likely not possible without significant diminishing returns in the current era) and you would have a lot of INSANE statlines. Pretty sure '95 Rodman is pushing 35 RPG under that criteria. LBJ has multiple 40+ point triple double seasons (as a top defender in the NBA), Curry's averaging >50 PPG on a 50/40/90 last year, etc etc. Bear in mind you're also adding in 3pt shots in comparison to a league that did not have a 3pt shot. That was a time when Oscar's triple double season nor Wilt's 50/25 season were good enough for MVP.

True, but the difference is that Westbrook is averaging a triple-double with 31 points already, without adjusting for minutes and pace. It just goes to show it is harder to do it now that it was before. Adding the adjustments just makes his stat line seem even more ridiculous.

[jonjames]

If the Spurs win the 60+ games that they are projected to win then there is NO CHANCE Kawhi Leonard doesn't win the MVP. He was last year's runner up and he'll win this year barring any second half of the season Spurs meltdown.

[inquisitive]

So what are the odds by Vegas as of today on who will win MVP? Iol....What is the media's sentiment as of today? I still keep hearing Westbrook, so i think it is his to lose.