2017 Pick Watch (Sac Swap Rights, LAL pick)

[Unbreakable99]

teams we need to keep losing
- suns
- mavs
- kings

Teams we need to keep winning
- lakers
- wolves
- heat

I agree. That's Lakers pick is gone. I'm resigned to them finishing 2nd and needing lottery luck to get it but I doubt it. We just need the Kings to remember who they are and start losing so we can get a top 6 pick.

[Wilfried]

Heat wins, our pick and kings' picks value rises? Thats how i see it

How? Heat need to go back to bottom the line they were majority of the season... Push the Lakers out of bottom 3...

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The way Heat is playing, I see them more likely to have more wins than Sixers and Kings than them becoming a bottom 3 team.

I'm betting more that Nets, Suns and Mavs solidify their position at the bottom 3.

Heat have a pretty easy shedule going on.
They can pass the Kings I think.

Match-up against the Kings is a big one, but we can actually only win because of the swap

[Wilfried]

Kings killing us on the pick swap. They are hammering the Hornets in CHA right now. Looks like they're actually better without Gay.

Yeah I had a fear that they would start playing better without Gay. I don't expect our pick to be in the top 6-8 unless the Lakers pick conveys (I have a strong feeling it won't), so it looks like BC is going to have to consolidate his assets to land a third star in a trade to team up with Embiid and Simmons.

Third star can still come this draft (Lakers' pick is still possible, even if they are at #2), next year's draft (Lakers' pick) of 2019 draft (Sac pick). Really, no need to panic and run away from the process.

[LordCovington33]

Magic might find its way in the bottom 3. They have lost 11 of 14 games in Jan.

[FreesFro]

Stinks Kings won 3 games on this 8 game road trip already. Very surprised.

[BoomBap]

I think the Lakers will keep their pick this season. They are so bad. But the pick will be unprotected next season and I am pretty sure, they will be one of the worst teams in the NBA.

[AI_Efficiency]

Even with Lakers finishing second worst in the league they still only have a little better than a coin flips chance at keeping their pick.

[Ericb5]

Even with Lakers finishing second worst in the league they still only have a little better than a coin flips chance at keeping their pick.

That's the point that everyone needs to remember. Whether you are optimistic or pessimistic, if they finish second or third, then we have basically a coin flip for the pick.

It's not even worth worrying about because that's the worst that it can get. I think that our chances will be even better though because I still think that they will end up 4 or 5 pre lottery in the end.

They are playing the worst that they have played all year, and I expect them to get better from here, especially when Russell gets back healthy.


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[hookshot199]

It's not a balanced roster. They'll have three guards, one unproven small forward, and an aging center who shouldn't play center, and no power forward. And they'll have to make a decision on how much to pay Smart - $10 mil? $15 mil? The Celtics have the opposite problem of the Sixers. They don't have enough players to fill out their roster and signing both Bradley and Thomas will push them right up to their cap ceiling. We have too many players - counting future picks - and no problem payroll-wise for the next two to three years.

I'm losing your pt here! We started this by pointing out that the Sixers will soon be in the spot the Celtics are at now--not enough roster spots for their draft picks--so I'm not sure how or why you came to the opposite point. The current Celts had to dump a promising prospect and draft a weak stash player, so their problem now is too many players.

Flashing forward a year or two, the Celtics will have their current solid core and will have other players too--they'll probably re-sign some of their current vets with Bird rights, they'll have another 3-4 guys on rookie deals (2 1st rd picks this year and next), etc. Their roster won't be empty, it just could be expensive depending on what they do. But that's an accounting issue rather than a talent one--they already have a strong core of vets and will have some great chances (this year's FA and two years of top-5 drafts) to find another great player or two. (Also, the cap projections are about $102m for 2017-18 and $108m for 2018-2019, so you're right about two years from now. That makes the Celt situation even less of a problem).

Also, I'm a longtime Noel guy but I think you're tripping a little if you think that swapping him for J Brown--while also taking away like $12m of this summer's cap space for Noel's cap hold--would be a brilliant move for their long term success. Noel aint Rudy Gobert and their best chance of becoming a real contender comes from this summer's cap space.

<<They also have a bunch of possible roster spots next year--if they want to develop young guys they can get rid of bench pieces like Jerebko or Gerald Green or Olynyk. I wish they were more screwed, though, they're the only team that I'm actively rooting against right now (even though I ironically like their key players--IT, Crowder, Bradley, Horford, Johnson)).>>


I see where we got off track. I've written before that Ainge is not a good drafter. Then again, he's been handicapped by not having many top-10 picks. He had to let Sullinger and Hunter walk. James Young will probably be next. Smart is a good player but limited because he can't shoot. Olynyk gives some quality minutes but he'll never be a starter and Ainge have to offer him a payday sooner or later. Rosier was picked 16 in the middle of the pack like TLC. Post Rondo, Avery Bradley is his one big hit.

My main point, I guess, is that I don't think most Celtics prospects on the parent club, based in part on playing time, have limited upside. It's just an opinion. Keeping them on the roster instead of bringing over Zizic or Yabusele seems to me to be a lateral move.

So responding to your main point: In 2018, when the Celtics must re-up Thomas and Bradley (I assume they will), they will have tied up more than 45% of their cap space in three guards including this year's pick. Counting Smart, who they'll have to make an offer to, the total will go up to slightly more than 50% just counting his qualifying offer. Four players.

Add Horford, Crowder and Brown and the total is around 90%. That's seven players.

Without a backup center or power forward.

Under the new economics, a player like Amir Johnson will command $15 mil, I would think. That would put them right at the cap. Eight players.

We're not in the same situation because we will have all of roster spots filled and will be slightly under the cap even if we sign Noel to $20 mil.

Just my quick arithmetic.

Bottom line: With the exception of Bradley and excluding Smart (because he was a six pick), they haven't developed any of their picks which puts them more at the mercy of the market.

[ProcessDoctor]

Orlando about to steal one in TOR.

[ProcessDoctor]

Great night for our pick! DAL and ORL both with huge upsets.

[HotelVitale]

Great night for our pick! DAL and ORL both with huge upsets.

Yup, we're now in the 5th spot, just half game ahead of 4th-worst DAL (who's been rolling lately). Lakers also pushed to third with PHX losing yesterday.

[nitocobola]

I hope that phoenix trades bledsoe.

[Ericb5]

I just ran the mock simulator on tankathon and got 5 and 6.

That combo in any recent draft wouldn't be close to as good as it would be in this draft.

We could get Isaac and Monk, or maybe Smith and Tatum, or any number of other great combinations.

I think that here is becoming a top 4 in whatever order of Fultz, Smith, Jackson and Ball. I know some of you guys put Isaac up there too, but I'm not totally convinced myself yet.

Still, if he does creep up into the top 4 then it would push someone else out.

I still think that Giles is a dark horse for the top 3. If he continues to improve health and rust wise he could be the best prospect overall by the time the tournament comes around.

Especially considering how teams like Boston, and Phoenix are pretty guard heavy.


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[djc373]

I just ran the mock simulator on tankathon and got 5 and 6.

That combo in any recent draft wouldn't be close to as good as it would be in this draft.

We could get Isaac and Monk, or maybe Smith and Tatum, or any number of other great combinations.

I think that here is becoming a top 4 in whatever order of Fultz, Smith, Jackson and Ball. I know some of you guys put Isaac up there too, but I'm not totally convinced myself yet.

Still, if he does creep up into the top 4 then it would push someone else out.

I still think that Giles is a dark horse for the top 3. If he continues to improve health and rust wise he could be the best prospect overall by the time the tournament comes around.

Especially considering how teams like Boston, and Phoenix are pretty guard heavy.


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Even if we dont get a great pick, we have the ammo to trade up with a team that wants to take a big. Chances are good that we get one of the top guards

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[76ciology]

How the hell did Mavs beat the Spurs?

I'm second guessing rooting for Mavs to lose. Maybe them winning is likely better for us. Lose the Lakers pick (around 4th pick) but move up in the draft, which is more likely to happen.

[TFK]

How the hell did Mavs beat the Spurs?

I'm second guessing rooting for Mavs to lose. Maybe them winning is likely better for us. Lose the Lakers pick (around 4th pick) but move up in the draft, which is more likely to happen.

I think rooting for the Mav's to lose is pointless. Unlike a lot of the other teams at the bottom, they have too many solid proven NBA vets who are gonna keep them a respectable team. So they should be one of those teams that could realistically climb and stay above us and even pass the Kings. I don't see any way they could possibly stay worse than the Lakers, so there's really no reason not to root for them to win.

At this point, the Nets aren't moving. The Suns are really the one no-brainer team to root against to try to keep the Lakers at at least the 3 spot, because they really have no shot of improving to the point of passing the Kings or probably even us.

For everybody else (Wolves, Magic, Heat, etc), it's all a trade off because their losses help our chances at Lakers pick but hurt our own pick. That's why even though I love what's going on with our resurgence, our own losses are still really the most easily identifiable valuable commodity. (Well, that and Kings losses).

For those teams, I'll be rooting for wins because I am fine taking the gamble with Lakers at the 3 spot (worst case, unprotected next year) and think it's more important that our own pick is relatively high.

[HotelVitale]

How the hell did Mavs beat the Spurs? I'm second guessing rooting for Mavs to lose. Maybe them winning is likely better for us. Lose the Lakers pick (around 4th pick) but move up in the draft, which is more likely to happen.

I think rooting for the Mav's to lose is pointless. Unlike a lot of the other teams at the bottom, they have too many solid proven NBA vets who are gonna keep them a respectable team. So they should be one of those teams that could realistically climb and stay above us and even pass the Kings. I don't see any way they could possibly stay worse than the Lakers, so there's really no reason not to root for them to win.

Yeah, I'm rooting for wins for the entire basement club at this point. It'd be great if we could win 28 or 30 games this year and still land in the top five, and I'm hopeful that's fairly realistic given the relative parity this year (there are only 8 good teams, then like 10 beatable teams and a dozen more pretty weak teams, with BKN alone in the dungeon.) The Suns, Mavs, Wolves, or Magic are decent enough that they could each win 30ish games, and that'd probably be the best thing for us.

On another note, good match-ups for the tank tonight: MIA should get another win against BKN, while either ORL or MIN will win (they play each other), and those 3 teams plus DAL are the ones we most we want to keep winning now.

[Slizeezyc]

Heat win AGAIN, Pat Riley continues to get angrier.

The Wolves/Magic game is a win-win for The Tank.

Looks like the Mavs will beat the Cavs, which is also good.

So basically a Suns loss would complete a perfect Tank night (go Grizz) since the PICK SWAP Bowl worked out as well.

[CoreyGallagher]

1 game separates 4 through 10 in lottery.