pineappleheadindc wrote:nate33 wrote:pineappleheadindc wrote:I see that customs personnel at airports refused to comply with judicial cease-and-desist orders. That's executive branch personnel not adhering to judicial branch legal declarations.
Book this: On January 29, 2017 -- I'm calling that Trump will be impeached before his first term over.
More importantly, it will be Congressional *Republicans* who will lead the impeachment proceedings (all to save their brand).
Never gonna happen. Or it certainly won't happen unless there's a massive landslide win for Democrats in 2018, giving them both houses.
Republican congressmen are trying to win the votes of Republicans, not Democrats. How is impeaching Trump going to help Republican congressmen win votes?
Mr. Chairman, I'd like to extend and revise my remarks. Here is my thinking:
1. Congressional Republicans don't care about Trump, they care about maintaining Republican control of Congress.
2. Trump and Bannon are not helping themselves. It's only been a little over a week and they're sinking in polls, kinds screwing up simple things like Executive Orders and them being vetted by (their own) executive branch agencies.
3. At some point, Trump and crew are gonna hit a mark where their relative unpopularity will risk mid-term election results. Their "brand" is gonna be toxic. That's when, in self-preservation mode, Congressional Republicans are gonna act.
4. They have Mike Pence teed up. I think Congressional Republicans would prefer to work with him. He's conservative and one of them, but not unpredictable like Trump. So if they dump Trump, they can look like they're willing to look after the American people against an unpopular President, but still line up a President who'll back their agenda. Win-win.
5. I see that Customs agents did not fully comply with court orders freezing deportations as part of the recent immigration Executive order. That's a Constitutional conflict. Republicans will take advantage of Trump continued overreaching when they need to, dump him to show the American people just how nonpartisan they are, and tee up Pence, who'll back their agenda while not having the patina of Trump on him.
Customs agents not following court orders is not likely enough to talk about impeachment. There needs more of a "smoking gun" such as evidence that Trump is giving the orders. Haven't seen that so far, but he can't keep his mouth shut, so he may implicate himself. If that happens, there are grounds for impeachment. Article II, Section 3 of the Constitution requires the President to “take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.” When the courts give an order, it should be based on some existing law, or the Constitution itself, so their order is basically saying the law is being violated, and it must stop.
Of course court orders can be appealed, so it can be a long process before the Supreme Court rules. Assuming appeals to the current court orders, any plans for impeachment would have to wait for a Supreme Court decision.
Impeachment requires the commission of treason, bribery, high crimes and misdemeanors. Disobeying court orders may fit under "high crimes and misdemeanors", but this is probably a moot point since there's not a definition in the Constitution. Congress can do what they want. The bar is not high. Clinton was impeached by the House for his lies about sex.
I think the last thing Democrats want is for Trump to be impeached. Especially before the 2018 mid-term elections. Democrats suffer from low turnout in the mid-terms, so desparately need a lightening rod like Trump to still be in office.
Republican legislators would love to see him gone, but couldn't take the risk of starting impeachment proceedings. Trump supporters would definitely take out their wrath on Republican candidates. Doesn't look like there's much chance of impeachment.
