Butler trade rumor - KC Johnson update: pg 63

[Stratmaster]

Disagree here. I don't think Wiggins ever sniffs the All Star game. If Minnesota is smart- they'll move him for something of value before the rest of the league catches on- if they haven't already.

Interesting and here I thought that with experience in the NBA and some off seasons to work on other aspects of his game he could improve. He's just fooling everyone with his improved 3 point shot this year.
.

I could barely grasp the sarcasm in this post- lay it on a bit thicker next time.

I see Wiggins as inefficient, empty calories- 22 points on 18 FGA per game. Great athlete. Scores with middling efficiency but poor at everything else. Poor facilitator and poor defender. Could he improve enough to escape the gravitational pull of average NBA player? Sure. Will he ever be a top 10 player? Odds are long against it.

I don't mean to inject myself into this debate and I really don't have a side as it is all conjecture at this point. However, Wiggins is 21 years old and in his 3rd season. Jimmy Butler was still playing college ball at this point and didn't really come into his own until he was 25. Of course, you could say spending 3 years in the pros rather than college is an even higher end training. But in saying that, Wiggins is certainly more valuable at 21 than Jimmy Butler was, even at 24.

Will Wiggins work his ass off like Jimmy did to continue to improve? We don't know.
Will Wiggins "grow up" both on and off the court like most people do from age 20-24? You would think so.
Will his athleticism allow him to become a solid defender if the 2 items above happen? You would think so.

I think Wiggins could very well end up in an all-star game. I'm not so sure of it that I would bet the house, my guitar collection, my wife or my kids on it. Well...maybe the wife and kids.

[TheSuzerain]

Trading Butler for Wiggins is basically crashing this plane with no survivors.

[DroseReturnChi]

That's a good point about the Knicks, so the Bulls need to avoid that game. Melo is a trash asset compared to Butler. But I could understand the Celtics going that route knowing that Phil would trade him for a lot less than the Bulls would trade Butler. Makes some sense for Ainge.

So the Bulls can't play that game. To me Butler has played at such a high level that now two options are perfectly reasonable.

1. If Boston, or someone else but really only Boston appears to have the assets, will give it up to the tune of at the absolute minimum 2017 Nets pick, Brown and players, trade Butler and start over.

2. If the Bulls have to compromise, keep Butler, take a run at 2017 free agency.

There is no definitive "must keep Butler" or "must trade Butler" position that holds up to real scrutiny. It's a very, very close call that will be decided by context.

Minny has the assets too. Boston and Minnesota have been the teams my money has been on if they trade him

I'd hate to deal with Minnesota because I'm of the opinion that to win on a trade, you need the hope of getting a player who can one day outperform a max contract like Butler does now. Even if you get LaVine and Wiggins (and Minnesota fans wouldn't want to do it because while Butler would do more for them than those 2 for the next couple years, the T-Wolves are in no rush to contend), I think that's a bad deal for the Bulls because in a couple years, you have to pay both of these guys the max and I'm not sure even then they'll collectively impact winning as much as Butler does. You'd be paying those collectively over $50mm a year and if they can't bring the Wolves to mediocrity with Towns, they're going to have to make very significant improvement to make the Bulls even average. Certainly plausible, but unlikely.

Obviously, if you see LaVine or Wiggins as players who will one day be capable of outperforming a max contract, then you would disagree with my statement. I think they're both the kind of guys who are going to get max deals but not make huge impacts on the win/loss column.

If forced to deal Butler, I'd take the unknown of the Brooklyn picks, which I think gives you a better chance of landing a guy who will one day outperform a max deal. Based solely on opinion, I'd say whoever you get with 2 Brooklyn picks has maybe a 30ish percent chance of outperforming a max deal on their 2nd contract whereas I have a really hard time envisioning LaVine or Wiggins ever being that good.

Umm. I dont mind the BKN picks but it would be foolish not to accept a deal around Lavine and Wiggins. But there's 0% Thibs is going to hand off 2 super prospects for Butler since he doesnt want the Bulls to win the trade so your idea is more of a pipedream.

[DroseReturnChi]

Interesting and here I thought that with experience in the NBA and some off seasons to work on other aspects of his game he could improve. He's just fooling everyone with his improved 3 point shot this year.
.

I could barely grasp the sarcasm in this post- lay it on a bit thicker next time.

I see Wiggins as inefficient, empty calories- 22 points on 18 FGA per game. Great athlete. Scores with middling efficiency but poor at everything else. Poor facilitator and poor defender. Could he improve enough to escape the gravitational pull of average NBA player? Sure. Will he ever be a top 10 player? Odds are long against it.

I don't mean to inject myself into this debate and I really don't have a side as it is all conjecture at this point. However, Wiggins is 21 years old and in his 3rd season. Jimmy Butler was still playing college ball at this point and didn't really come into his own until he was 25. Of course, you could say spending 3 years in the pros rather than college is an even higher end training. But in saying that, Wiggins is certainly more valuable at 21 than Jimmy Butler was, even at 24.

Will Wiggins work his ass off like Jimmy did to continue to improve? We don't know.
Will Wiggins "grow up" both on and off the court like most people do from age 20-24? You would think so.
Will his athleticism allow him to become a solid defender if the 2 items above happen? You would think so.

I think Wiggins could very well end up in an all-star game. I'm not so sure of it that I would bet the house, my guitar collection, my wife or my kids on it. Well...maybe the wife and kids.

Lol at people thinking Wiggins is garbage. He's a way better prospect than Jimmy or Brown at his age and he's only getting better year by year. If Wiggins became already a solid defender and ball handler at age 21, he would be untouchable. We wouldnt even get Wiggins with Butler.

[jnrjr79]

I don't know... Pau Gasol may have taken even less to play with Chicago plus the odds of signing some other defensive PF or trade a future asset for one, McDermott probably had some value still at that point to trade... you have to sometimes sacrifice the future to strengthen a championship run.

1. It's pretty ridiculous to speculate Gasol would've taken less than the $7M he ultimately took. I do recall there being chatter that he wasn't going to sign for the MLE.

2. It's unclear to me that Melo would've actually strengthened a championship run.

1. Not ridiculous, he had been considering taking less with San Antonio at the time, adding Melo may have made the decision to take less easier.
2. Maybe it's unclear to you but I kinda think Thibs would have made things work plus... look where Chicago is now, would they really be that worse off stuck with Butler, Melo and Rose then Butler, Wade and Rondo? I kinda think they'd be doing better and have had a core to build the rest of the team around even if you were on from Rose next year.

I think it's exceedingly silly to post criticisms/alternative histories that rely on players to take less money - particularly when that same amount of money was offered by other franchises. It's just making stuff up.

[jnrjr79]

Interesting and here I thought that with experience in the NBA and some off seasons to work on other aspects of his game he could improve. He's just fooling everyone with his improved 3 point shot this year.
.

I could barely grasp the sarcasm in this post- lay it on a bit thicker next time.

I see Wiggins as inefficient, empty calories- 22 points on 18 FGA per game. Great athlete. Scores with middling efficiency but poor at everything else. Poor facilitator and poor defender. Could he improve enough to escape the gravitational pull of average NBA player? Sure. Will he ever be a top 10 player? Odds are long against it.

Why are u so pessimistic on Wiggins when he has all the tools to become a great player? I mean if Butler could become a top 10 player, I see no reason why Wiggins cant. He has improved his 3 pt shooting and he just needs to improve his defense and ball handling which is not an impossible task to figure out. I dont see superstar potential but he can be a multiple all star kind of career. (top 20 player)

Projecting anyone to progress like Jimmy Butler did is not a reasonable assumption. Butler's improvement makes him a massive outlier.

[greenl]

Interesting and here I thought that with experience in the NBA and some off seasons to work on other aspects of his game he could improve. He's just fooling everyone with his improved 3 point shot this year.
.

I could barely grasp the sarcasm in this post- lay it on a bit thicker next time.

I see Wiggins as inefficient, empty calories- 22 points on 18 FGA per game. Great athlete. Scores with middling efficiency but poor at everything else. Poor facilitator and poor defender. Could he improve enough to escape the gravitational pull of average NBA player? Sure. Will he ever be a top 10 player? Odds are long against it.

I don't mean to inject myself into this debate and I really don't have a side as it is all conjecture at this point. However, Wiggins is 21 years old and in his 3rd season. Jimmy Butler was still playing college ball at this point and didn't really come into his own until he was 25. Of course, you could say spending 3 years in the pros rather than college is an even higher end training. But in saying that, Wiggins is certainly more valuable at 21 than Jimmy Butler was, even at 24.

Will Wiggins work his ass off like Jimmy did to continue to improve? We don't know.
Will Wiggins "grow up" both on and off the court like most people do from age 20-24? You would think so.
Will his athleticism allow him to become a solid defender if the 2 items above happen? You would think so.

I think Wiggins could very well end up in an all-star game. I'm not so sure of it that I would bet the house, my guitar collection, my wife or my kids on it. Well...maybe the wife and kids.

Take my wife...please.

It happened to Jimmy- it could happen to someone else. Same logic is used to sell lots of lottery picks (real ones- not basketball lottery). It 'could' happen to Wiggins- it simply is not likely. He doesn't and hasn't demonstrated any aptitude for facilitation (Strat- you are of the belief that guys make the other players around them better- that's facilitation) and for as athletic as Wiggins is- he should be a great defender now- but he's not- that's a big red flag. The growth curve that Jimmy experienced is anomalous and not likely to be replicated very often.

[Mech Engineer]

K.C. Johnson also said this draft is potentially as strong as the 2003 draft, and if the Bulls intend on rebuilding, this draft is a perfect time to try and nab a starting PG with a high lotto pick

What happened to that strong draft class a few years back in 2014(I think)? We have no idea.

For all the hype the 2003 draft class gets....there are only 2 players who won championships as a top option. And, everybody knew about LeBron and Wade was the only guy who was scouted and clicked. Bosh did have a great career but he would have never won as a top option.

Melo is fool's gold. Drafting Melo type guy sets the organization back worse than a bust. At least with a bust, you can move on pretty quickly. With Melo types, you think you have a #1 option and the team never really becomes elite. You keep thinking a move or two would push it to the next tier with Melo in fold and it never happens. That's the story of most of these promising draft picks.

We know there is no LeBron type in this draft. Thus, it is not as good as the 2003 draft to tank. IMO, if you tank, I want to know there is a LeBron type in the draft.

[DroseReturnChi]

I could barely grasp the sarcasm in this post- lay it on a bit thicker next time.

I see Wiggins as inefficient, empty calories- 22 points on 18 FGA per game. Great athlete. Scores with middling efficiency but poor at everything else. Poor facilitator and poor defender. Could he improve enough to escape the gravitational pull of average NBA player? Sure. Will he ever be a top 10 player? Odds are long against it.

Why are u so pessimistic on Wiggins when he has all the tools to become a great player? I mean if Butler could become a top 10 player, I see no reason why Wiggins cant. He has improved his 3 pt shooting and he just needs to improve his defense and ball handling which is not an impossible task to figure out. I dont see superstar potential but he can be a multiple all star kind of career. (top 20 player)

Projecting anyone to progress like Jimmy Butler did is not a reasonable assumption. Butler's improvement makes him a massive outlier.

So are u saying it's impossible for Wiggins to make a jump like Butler although he has a superior build and more gifted athletically?

[Red Larrivee]

Projecting anyone to progress like Jimmy Butler did is not a reasonable assumption. Butler's improvement makes him a massive outlier.

I'd be really worried if a player who was drafted much higher than Butler and was once considered a generational talent, was not progressing better in his first 3 seasons. As you said, Butler is an outlier to the path of a Top 10 player.

Not to mention, it's a given that Wiggins will get the max purely on upside and raw scoring. What you get on that max is anyone's guess.

[Rerisen]

Why are u so pessimistic on Wiggins when he has all the tools to become a great player? I mean if Butler could become a top 10 player, I see no reason why Wiggins cant. He has improved his 3 pt shooting and he just needs to improve his defense and ball handling which is not an impossible task to figure out. I dont see superstar potential but he can be a multiple all star kind of career. (top 20 player)

Projecting anyone to progress like Jimmy Butler did is not a reasonable assumption. Butler's improvement makes him a massive outlier.

So are u saying it's impossible for Wiggins to make a jump like Butler although he has a superior build and more gifted athletically?

Players with the raw tools of Wiggins are usually far more progressed than him by now if they are to become stars. This year his numbers are actually regressing a little, which is very concerning as his improvement has leveled off.

[RememberLu]

K.C. Johnson also said this draft is potentially as strong as the 2003 draft, and if the Bulls intend on rebuilding, this draft is a perfect time to try and nab a starting PG with a high lotto pick

What happened to that strong draft class a few years back in 2014(I think)? We have no idea.

For all the hype the 2003 draft class gets....there are only 2 players who won championships as a top option. And, everybody knew about LeBron and Wade was the only guy who was scouted and clicked. Bosh did have a great career but he would have never won as a top option.

Melo is fool's gold. Drafting Melo type guy sets the organization back worse than a bust. At least with a bust, you can move on pretty quickly. With Melo types, you think you have a #1 option and the team never really becomes elite. You keep thinking a move or two would push it to the next tier with Melo in fold and it never happens. That's the story of most of these promising draft picks.

We know there is no LeBron type in this draft. Thus, it is not as good as the 2003 draft to tank. IMO, if you tank, I want to know there is a LeBron type in the draft.

oh come on, these are impossibly high standards.

All you can do is put yourself in the best position and roll the dice, nobody is guaranteed a thing

[TheSuzerain]

Why are u so pessimistic on Wiggins when he has all the tools to become a great player? I mean if Butler could become a top 10 player, I see no reason why Wiggins cant. He has improved his 3 pt shooting and he just needs to improve his defense and ball handling which is not an impossible task to figure out. I dont see superstar potential but he can be a multiple all star kind of career. (top 20 player)

Projecting anyone to progress like Jimmy Butler did is not a reasonable assumption. Butler's improvement makes him a massive outlier.

So are u saying it's impossible for Wiggins to make a jump like Butler although he has a superior build and more gifted athletically?

It's basically impossible.

Butler's improvement is just about unprecedented. He went from a defensive role player to a fringe Superstar in like 3 seasons, starting at age 25. That's not a blueprint for success in 99.9% of cases.

[Red Larrivee]

Why are u so pessimistic on Wiggins when he has all the tools to become a great player? I mean if Butler could become a top 10 player, I see no reason why Wiggins cant. He has improved his 3 pt shooting and he just needs to improve his defense and ball handling which is not an impossible task to figure out. I dont see superstar potential but he can be a multiple all star kind of career. (top 20 player)

Projecting anyone to progress like Jimmy Butler did is not a reasonable assumption. Butler's improvement makes him a massive outlier.

So are u saying it's impossible for Wiggins to make a jump like Butler although he has a superior build and more gifted athletically?

It's not impossible, but there's little to suggest he will based on 3 seasons.

[jnrjr79]

Why are u so pessimistic on Wiggins when he has all the tools to become a great player? I mean if Butler could become a top 10 player, I see no reason why Wiggins cant. He has improved his 3 pt shooting and he just needs to improve his defense and ball handling which is not an impossible task to figure out. I dont see superstar potential but he can be a multiple all star kind of career. (top 20 player)

Projecting anyone to progress like Jimmy Butler did is not a reasonable assumption. Butler's improvement makes him a massive outlier.

So are u saying it's impossible for Wiggins to make a jump like Butler although he has a superior build and more gifted athletically?

No, that is not what I'm saying, and nothing in what I posted should lead you to believe it is. I said it was "not a reasonable assumption." Because it isn't. Most players don't improve to the degree Butler did. It's obviously not impossible, it's just not likely.

If I have a lottery ticket, it's possible I could win millions, but the likely outcome is that I get nothing.

[jnrjr79]

Projecting anyone to progress like Jimmy Butler did is not a reasonable assumption. Butler's improvement makes him a massive outlier.

I'd be really worried if a player who was drafted much higher than Butler and was once considered a generational talent, was not progressing better in his first 3 seasons. As you said, Butler is an outlier to the path of a Top 10 player.

Not to mention, it's a given that Wiggins will get the max purely on upside and raw scoring. What you get on that max is anyone's guess.

Yeah, the other point that should be made is that Wiggins' path to potential stardom wouldn't match Jimmy's regardless, because he entered the league with much higher stock and frankly as a better player than Jimmy did.

[DroseReturnChi]

In the end, what matters is that Wiggins is a way superior prospect the Butler or Jaylen Brown were at the same age.
You dont just say in hindsight no prospect will reach Butler's level since what he accomplished is unprecedented.
Having this kind of idea is unhealthy for finding better players than Butler. As great as Butler is, some other prospect will definitely exceed or become the caliber of Butler and it's FO's job to figure that out.

[jnrjr79]

K.C. Johnson also said this draft is potentially as strong as the 2003 draft, and if the Bulls intend on rebuilding, this draft is a perfect time to try and nab a starting PG with a high lotto pick

What happened to that strong draft class a few years back in 2014(I think)? We have no idea.

For all the hype the 2003 draft class gets....there are only 2 players who won championships as a top option. And, everybody knew about LeBron and Wade was the only guy who was scouted and clicked. Bosh did have a great career but he would have never won as a top option.

Melo is fool's gold. Drafting Melo type guy sets the organization back worse than a bust. At least with a bust, you can move on pretty quickly. With Melo types, you think you have a #1 option and the team never really becomes elite. You keep thinking a move or two would push it to the next tier with Melo in fold and it never happens. That's the story of most of these promising draft picks.

We know there is no LeBron type in this draft. Thus, it is not as good as the 2003 draft to tank. IMO, if you tank, I want to know there is a LeBron type in the draft.

oh come on, these are impossibly high standards.

All you can do is put yourself in the best position and roll the dice, nobody is guaranteed a thing

I think the point here is that in trading Jimmy away, you have to take a hard look at whether you can make the team better. So, because "nobody is guaranteed a thing," you have to think about that when trying to "put yourself in the best position."

The best position could be keeping Jimmy and trying to land a 2nd star. Or, it could be getting a bunch of high picks. Because high picks don't guarantee you'll even replace Butler, let alone gather more talent, tanking can look unappealing.

[Mech Engineer]

K.C. Johnson also said this draft is potentially as strong as the 2003 draft, and if the Bulls intend on rebuilding, this draft is a perfect time to try and nab a starting PG with a high lotto pick

What happened to that strong draft class a few years back in 2014(I think)? We have no idea.

For all the hype the 2003 draft class gets....there are only 2 players who won championships as a top option. And, everybody knew about LeBron and Wade was the only guy who was scouted and clicked. Bosh did have a great career but he would have never won as a top option.

Melo is fool's gold. Drafting Melo type guy sets the organization back worse than a bust. At least with a bust, you can move on pretty quickly. With Melo types, you think you have a #1 option and the team never really becomes elite. You keep thinking a move or two would push it to the next tier with Melo in fold and it never happens. That's the story of most of these promising draft picks.

We know there is no LeBron type in this draft. Thus, it is not as good as the 2003 draft to tank. IMO, if you tank, I want to know there is a LeBron type in the draft.

oh come on, these are impossibly high standards.

All you can do is put yourself in the best position and roll the dice, nobody is guaranteed a thing

Isn't your goal a championship? If it's 2nd round or ECF, you can do that easily with Jimmy with the small chance of further advancement. If you are not getting LeBron in the draft, that championship hopes is just fantasy.

Why should you roll the dice when you already have Jimmy who is almost satisfying the high standards you want. It is the most bizarre thing. You are trying to be a FO apologist(even if you think you hate them). You are giving them an excuse not to do their job for the next 4 years....just go to Seacaucus and keep drafting 20 year olds for the next 4 years and win 20 games without any questions. Let them do their job trying to make trades and be creative to build around Jimmy. Isn't that their job?

You want them to do nothing but collect paychecks because they are scared to do the hard/creative work required to retool the roster.

[Red Larrivee]

In the end, what matters is that Wiggins is a way superior prospect the Butler or Jaylen Brown were at the same age.
You dont just say in hindsight no prospect will reach Butler's level since what he accomplished is unprecedented.
Having this kind of idea is unhealthy for finding better players than Butler. As great as Butler is, some other prospect will definitely exceed or become the caliber of Butler and it's FO's job to figure that out.

Yes you do say that because Butler is not a blueprint to superstar success. Most highly drafted talents became really good fairly quickly.

Wiggins has had moments but his current play doesn't resemble a future star. Hell, it would be even more concerning considering KAT is actually following the path Wiggins was supposed to be on.