2017 Pick Watch (Sac Swap Rights, LAL pick)

[phifans]

Orlando does have incentive to kick Lakers out of top three. No wonder why they tried hard to break their current roster recently.

[Slizeezyc]

Orlando does have incentive to kick Lakers out of top three. No wonder why they tried hard to break their current roster recently.

Oh man if Orlando turns into the hero we deserve and the one we totally need right now, I'm all for that twist.

[Ericb5]

Sorry if this has already been discussed, but barring any major moves/injuries, you have to like the odds of Sacramento finishing with the fourth or fifth worst record in the entire league. In the West, Minnesota, New Orleans, and Dallas are all trending up and the only teams that probably finish with a worse record than Sac are the Lakers and Suns...

The Kings are going through a kinda rough patch but they're still 3-7 in their last ten and they've had a really tough schedule. It's obviously nice to have that pick swap and there's a good chance we'll end up making use of it, but I don't think it's smart to base the rest of the whole season on the Mavs playing really well this week and the Kings losing road games to us, the Grizz, the Rockets, Pacers, Cavs, etc. They're still reasonably talented for a basement team, and they're playing 11 of their next 13 at home (which always helps a bad team), so I wouldn't pencil them in below the teams like MIA, DAL, ORL just yet.

Things aren't looking good for Brandon Ingram, but it was kind of understood that he'd struggle until his body fills out. He's a boy playing among men right now. If he never fills out, then he is what he is. If he fills out, he's got a chance to be a good player. He might not even fill out next year. It might be 2-3 years from now when you can really make an accurate assessment of him.

I'm not sure that filling out is his biggest hurdle, I think it's more developing some sort of impactful athleticism and making his jumper a big asset. Neither of those is impossible--plenty of folks have done that in their development--and I wasn't trying to say he sucks or is a bust. Just more of a cross-fingers-and-hope guy than a should-be-solid-and-might-be-great one and, as such, a much less reassuring pick than Simmons. (Incidentally, no one should ever condemn a first-year rookie who was chosen primarily for physical attributes, it's bad analysis and a good recipe for crow-eating.)

I think Ingram just needs 20 pounds to reach his ceiling. Or at least 20 pounds is required to reach his ceiling, but he obviously needs skill development too, just like all prospects.

I think his shooting, handle, and athleticism are all fine.


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[ProcessDoctor]

FiveThirtyEight Update (02/02/17):

8. Kings (33-49)
7. Timberwolves (33-49)
6. Magic (31-51)
5. Sixers (30-52)
4. Pelicans (30-52)
3. Lakers (27-55)
2. Suns (27-55)
1. Nets (17-65)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[TFK]

FiveThirtyEight Update (02/02/17):

8. Kings (33-49)
7. Timberwolves (33-49)
6. Magic (31-51)
5. Sixers (30-52)
4. Pelicans (30-52)
3. Lakers (27-55)
2. Suns (27-55)
1. Nets (17-65)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

I can live with that, though I'd like to see at least the TWolves and maybe even the Pelicans pass the Kings

[kriss73]

In that scenario the odds that Sixers pick in the range 1-3 AND they get the LAL pick, will be 24.2

[BoomBap]

I am pretty sure, that the pels win more games than the sixers. A Top 4 Pick (Fultz,Ball,Monk or Jackson) would be pretty sweet

[Arsenal]

We want the Lakers to finish #2 or #3 worst. Gives us the best chance for #4 or #5 after the lottery. In the case that we don't get it, unprotected next year is fine with me.

Yes we definitely want the Kings to keep losing. They stole a game or two they should have dropped on this last road trip, but there is still the potential for them to collapse. They just lost Garrett Temple for awhile who has been a decent role player for them this year.

[Slizeezyc]

We want the Lakers to finish #2 or #3 worst. Gives us the best chance for #4 or #5 after the lottery. In the case that we don't get it, unprotected next year is fine with me.

Yes we definitely want the Kings to keep losing. They stole a game or two they should have dropped on this last road trip, but there is still the potential for them to collapse. They just lost Garrett Temple for awhile who has been a decent role player for them this year.

Wow, a Temple injury really hurts them. Malachi has been okay I guess in terms of at least he can theoretically hit open jumpers, but Temple is their one big-time wing defender. I guess more Matt Barnes in their future (lolz) with a mix of Malachi.

The Suns are the best hope right now keeping the Lakers out of that two hole unless the Magic go full-tank and trade Ibaka -- though I dunno if they'll do that considering they might clear out Hennigan and Co. at the end of the season anyway so why let them keep making big moves for the team.

[oddwolfhooligan]

Sorry if this has already been discussed, but barring any major moves/injuries, you have to like the odds of Sacramento finishing with the fourth or fifth worst record in the entire league. In the West, Minnesota, New Orleans, and Dallas are all trending up and the only teams that probably finish with a worse record than Sac are the Lakers and Suns...

The Kings are going through a kinda rough patch but they're still 3-7 in their last ten and they've had a really tough schedule. It's obviously nice to have that pick swap and there's a good chance we'll end up making use of it, but I don't think it's smart to base the rest of the whole season on the Mavs playing really well this week and the Kings losing road games to us, the Grizz, the Rockets, Pacers, Cavs, etc. They're still reasonably talented for a basement team, and they're playing 11 of their next 13 at home (which always helps a bad team), so I wouldn't pencil them in below the teams like MIA, DAL, ORL just yet.

Things aren't looking good for Brandon Ingram, but it was kind of understood that he'd struggle until his body fills out. He's a boy playing among men right now. If he never fills out, then he is what he is. If he fills out, he's got a chance to be a good player. He might not even fill out next year. It might be 2-3 years from now when you can really make an accurate assessment of him.

I'm not sure that filling out is his biggest hurdle, I think it's more developing some sort of impactful athleticism and making his jumper a big asset. Neither of those is impossible--plenty of folks have done that in their development--and I wasn't trying to say he sucks or is a bust. Just more of a cross-fingers-and-hope guy than a should-be-solid-and-might-be-great one and, as such, a much less reassuring pick than Simmons. (Incidentally, no one should ever condemn a first-year rookie who was chosen primarily for physical attributes, it's bad analysis and a good recipe for crow-eating.)

When I said "barring any major moves/injuries," the Mavs were one of the main teams I had in mind. January was the first month of the season where the Mavs were relatively healthy and they went 8-6 in that time. It's pretty clear to me that when they have most of their guys available, that there's enough talent there for Carlisle to get okay results out of them.

That being said, I'm by no means penciling any of this in, just speculating.


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[Unbreakable99]

We can forget about the Lakers winning games. They will stay firmly in that 2 spot now that Magic is an advisor. He's going to have the Lakers go full tank. He's all about tanking to get better.

Read on Twitter

[HotelVitale]

I'm not sure that filling out is his biggest hurdle, I think it's more developing some sort of impactful athleticism and making his jumper a big asset. Neither of those is impossible--plenty of folks have done that in their development--and I wasn't trying to say he sucks or is a bust. Just more of a cross-fingers-and-hope guy than a should-be-solid-and-might-be-great one and, as such, a much less reassuring pick than Simmons. (Incidentally, no one should ever condemn a first-year rookie who was chosen primarily for physical attributes, it's bad analysis and a good recipe for crow-eating.)

I think Ingram just needs 20 pounds to reach his ceiling. Or at least 20 pounds is required to reach his ceiling, but he obviously needs skill development too, just like all prospects. I think his shooting, handle, and athleticism are all fine.

Hmm, what do you see him actually doing with his current athleticism and shooting? He didn't blow by anyone in college--even little guys with substantially less athleticism than any NBA player--and he currently has a slow sort of set shot that it seems like he'll have trouble getting off at any kind of volume. He's also not very good or versatile at finishing and has little in between game--if he doesn't have a clear lane to dunk, his only move is a spinning fadeaway; at his best last year he was backing down smaller guys and hitting those fadeaways, but it's still a difficult shot and not one to build a game around in the NBA.

Again, not knocking him, just saying that he seems pretty far skill and body wise from being what people hope he is. There's a reason we never give him any serious thought at #1 overall--even though his basic description (long shooting wing who can create some and has two-way potential) is exactly what our roster needed this summer.

[Slizeezyc]

I'm not sure that filling out is his biggest hurdle, I think it's more developing some sort of impactful athleticism and making his jumper a big asset. Neither of those is impossible--plenty of folks have done that in their development--and I wasn't trying to say he sucks or is a bust. Just more of a cross-fingers-and-hope guy than a should-be-solid-and-might-be-great one and, as such, a much less reassuring pick than Simmons. (Incidentally, no one should ever condemn a first-year rookie who was chosen primarily for physical attributes, it's bad analysis and a good recipe for crow-eating.)

I think Ingram just needs 20 pounds to reach his ceiling. Or at least 20 pounds is required to reach his ceiling, but he obviously needs skill development too, just like all prospects. I think his shooting, handle, and athleticism are all fine.

Hmm, what do you see him actually doing with his current athleticism and shooting? He didn't blow by anyone in college--even little guys with substantially less athleticism than any NBA player--and he currently has a slow sort of set shot that it seems like he'll have trouble getting off at any kind of volume. He's also not very good or versatile at finishing and has little in between game--if he doesn't have a clear lane to dunk, his only move is a spinning fadeaway; at his best last year he was backing down smaller guys and hitting those fadeaways, but it's still a difficult shot and not one to build a game around in the NBA.

Again, not knocking him, just saying that he seems pretty far skill and body wise from being what people hope he is. There's a reason we never give him any serious thought at #1 overall--even though his basic description (long shooting wing who can create some and has two-way potential) is exactly what our roster needed this summer.

I think I've said it once or twice, but I think if he turns into Chandler Parsons with better defense, that's a good outcome.

[Vince5693]

I am pretty sure, that the pels win more games than the sixers. A Top 4 Pick (Fultz,Ball,Monk or Jackson) would be pretty sweet

Or top 5, smith would be nice too

[Negrodamus]

The Suns never do us any favors, ever.

[XDevilBoiX]

Not over yet, hopefully Dallas holds on.

[Embiid P]

Devin Booker FTW!!! Dallas wins too.

[ratrac]

Weird play, but thank you, Devin.

[CoreyGallagher]

LA is 3, we're 4, and SAC is 5. Lol, holy crap.

[Slizeezyc]

LA is 3, we're 4, and SAC is 5. Lol, holy crap.

It's beautiful.