Reality Check: Carmelo Anthony Trade Value

[brackdan70]

Been seeing a lot of Melo ideas with high value coming back. Maybe I am undervaluing but I don't see it.

I don't want him on the team that I am a fan of due to salary next year and my belief that he would't help much.

he is a 32 yo with over 34000 minutes played in his career. He was great, but that is past.

Ortg 111, Drtg 112, BPM 0.2, RPM 0.82 (19th among SF), PER 19.56 (8th among SF).

24.6 million in 2016/17, 26.2 million in 2017/18, 27.9 million in 2018/19 (player option) with a 15% trade kicker.

He is a better than average player and good scorer still, but to me the contract cancels most of that value out.

[babyjax13]

The Knicks have no leverage to move him with his no trade clause, and everyone knows it. I said a filler plus a late first. I think it'd be a bit higher if they had a bigger market.

[azwfan]

The Knicks have no leverage to move him with his no trade clause, and everyone knows it. I said a filler plus a late first. I think it'd be a bit higher if they had a bigger market.

I agree with this. Only change is i'd say a mid 1st and maybe add a nice young player. But really, if its just LAC or CLE and Love or one of LAC's big 3 isn't going to NYC, i don't see the point for the Knicks.

[DaFan334]

This seems similar to the first time he was traded, where people don't think he will get much value in return. Unfortunately for the Knicks, the first trade worked out much differently for the Nuggets than I think this one will for the Knicks. A big difference I think is that the Knicks are just ready to move on. I personally hope the Knicks decide to just hold onto him and waste another year of his career and not allow him to go ring chasing as part of some ridiculously forced together superstar team. Karma's a bitch.

[DanishLakerFan]

This is impossible to gauge because of the no-trade clause.

If it weren't for that no-trade clause i'd say he's worth at least a quality starter and a first rounder (not a high one).

But given the circumstances, i'd say he's worth a young player with upside, a lesser pick/asset and a few fillers. If i'm the Knicks i'd try to swing a deal for Rondo + Mirotic + Valentine or Zipser + future 2nds. Or something along those lines.

[NashtyNas]

This is impossible to gauge because of the no-trade clause.

If it weren't for that no-trade clause i'd say he's worth at least a quality starter and a first rounder (not a high one).

But given the circumstances, i'd say he's worth a young player with upside, a lesser pick/asset and a few fillers. If i'm the Knicks i'd try to swing a deal for Rondo + Mirotic + Valentine or Zipser + future 2nds. Or something along those lines.

I agree with your initial point but if that's all you can get for Melo, why move him?
That's basically Valentine + 2 2nds for Melo.... I'd rather take a shot on Rivers being a long term NBA player and hope injuries get to the Clips by 2021 or whenever they can trade their next pick.... that trade has no upside at all for the Knicks (ignoring finances obviously - talking purely from a basketball perspective). It's a move to make a move. Are you sure Dolan would be on board for spending less?

All jokes aside though, the NTC makes things very hard. If he says the Clips and/or Cavs only, it pretty much means NY is getting almost nothing if they move him.

[Dr Positivity]

I wouldn't want him for free on that contract

[Dat2U]

This is impossible to gauge because of the no-trade clause.

If it weren't for that no-trade clause i'd say he's worth at least a quality starter and a first rounder (not a high one).

But given the circumstances, i'd say he's worth a young player with upside, a lesser pick/asset and a few fillers. If i'm the Knicks i'd try to swing a deal for Rondo + Mirotic + Valentine or Zipser + future 2nds. Or something along those lines.

I don't even know if he would okay a deal to Chicago. If the Knicks could get that much for him, I'd be surprised.

As it is now, with the Clips & Cavs as the only options, they'd be lucky to get a late 1st with a bad contract or two in return. The no-trade clause really does kill any value.

[Mich3006]

Thought his value would be a little bit higher but if the Knicks can send him along with Noah to the Clippers for Crawford, Johnson, Reddick, Rivers and maybe a future 1st, everybody (especially NYK) should be happy.

[QRich3]

Yeah, it all comes down to where is he willing to go to, which we really have no idea yet. If he's only willing to go to LA or Cleveland, his value is a neutral to slightly positive package, since that's all those teams can offer, even if they go all in. If he's open to more places, his value raises significantly.

[SuperflyKnick]

I wouldn't want him for free on that contract

You mean in a era of basketball where players half his skill set are making almost as much money as him ??? Where role players are getting paid 18 mil a year ??? The same player you wouldn't want for free just an year and half ago was wanted by 1/4 of the NBA who wanted to give him that contract ...

[KuruptedCav]

Melo is a fine player, but he's also a player whose trade value doesn't necessarily match his production.
1) He's a player in decline. His PER has gone down every year since 2012. He came from a very high level, so he's still very good even in decline, but he's 32 and not getting younger
2) His market is limited: His no-trade clause limits the pool of teams. And of those remaining, the fact is that he has one more year on his contract and then he's going to demand $30 million. If a team like Cleveland or Los Angeles gives up a quality asset, the cap will require acquiescing to that demand or risk not being able to replace him. That is priced in to market value.
3) His defense has always been suspect, but as offense efficiency has declined the Ortg/Drtg has gone neg. Needs the right situation to be effective. Again, limiting value/market.

He is worth more to the acquiring team than the bag of scraps the Knicks can get for him. They'll meet somewhere in the middle, but it's not max value.

[DanishLakerFan]

This is impossible to gauge because of the no-trade clause.

If it weren't for that no-trade clause i'd say he's worth at least a quality starter and a first rounder (not a high one).

But given the circumstances, i'd say he's worth a young player with upside, a lesser pick/asset and a few fillers. If i'm the Knicks i'd try to swing a deal for Rondo + Mirotic + Valentine or Zipser + future 2nds. Or something along those lines.

I agree with your initial point but if that's all you can get for Melo, why move him?
That's basically Valentine + 2 2nds for Melo.... I'd rather take a shot on Rivers being a long term NBA player and hope injuries get to the Clips by 2021 or whenever they can trade their next pick.... that trade has no upside at all for the Knicks (ignoring finances obviously - talking purely from a basketball perspective). It's a move to make a move. Are you sure Dolan would be on board for spending less?

All jokes aside though, the NTC makes things very hard. If he says the Clips and/or Cavs only, it pretty much means NY is getting almost nothing if they move him.

Right now Melo they're flatlining with Melo and moving him is more about moving on and building around Porzingis rather than getting back actual value.

[DanishLakerFan]

This is impossible to gauge because of the no-trade clause.

If it weren't for that no-trade clause i'd say he's worth at least a quality starter and a first rounder (not a high one).

But given the circumstances, i'd say he's worth a young player with upside, a lesser pick/asset and a few fillers. If i'm the Knicks i'd try to swing a deal for Rondo + Mirotic + Valentine or Zipser + future 2nds. Or something along those lines.

I don't even know if he would okay a deal to Chicago. If the Knicks could get that much for him, I'd be surprised.

As it is now, with the Clips & Cavs as the only options, they'd be lucky to get a late 1st with a bad contract or two in return. The no-trade clause really does kill any value.

He considered Chicago as a FA destination and with Butler and Wade i think he could be persuaded.

[Knickfan1982]

The Knicks have no leverage to move him with his no trade clause, and everyone knows it. I said a filler plus a late first. I think it'd be a bit higher if they had a bigger market.

I think people greatly exaggerate the impact of his no-trade clause. You want to know what really hinders our leverage. His contract and his age. At least a third of all NBA teams aren't even in a position to consider Melo. Many of the rest would consider Melo but his contract is too large to make a trade feasible. Compared to those factors the NTC is meaningless. Also, I genuinely believe Melo would not limit himself to 3 teams if he really wants to leave.

Finally, he won't get much in the way of a return now because its the middle of the year. We'd get a better return if we waited until the offseason.

[NYKHardKnock]

Melo has been hot besides last game averaging 30 per game. He could fit in very nicely with LA and Boston

[Bentley1225]

Melo will be 33 next season and making $30 million (factoring in 15% trade kicker) with a PO for 2018-19 for any team acquiring him.

The realistic packages out there for him would seem to be:

Crawford
Rivers
Future 1st

OR

Smith
Shumpert
Future 1st

I think Melo will see what the Knicks do in the off-season. If he feels that they aren't a playoff team for 2017-18 season, Im assuming he will waive his NTC for more teams in the NBA. Trading a player of Melo's calibre mid-season is very difficult to make adjustments.

[sportscrazy]

The best historical comparison is Ray Allen to the Celtics...

Ray Allen and 35th Overall Draft Pick for Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and 5th Overall Draft Pick

Now considering the drop off from Oden/Durant/Horford/Conley to the next tier of players (Green/Jianlian/Brewer/Wright/Noah/Hawes) versus the strength of the 2017 draft (I think the drop off falls later with how top heavy this draft class is) plus the No Trade Clause, it definitely weakens 'Melo's value versus Allen's.

All-in-all, I say Carmelo Anthony and 2017 Bulls Second Round Draft Pick for Contract Filler (Szczerbiak), Raw Prospect On Rookie Contract That Would Be Considered A Bust (Delonte West) and 2017 Draft Pick In The 10-16 Range (Jeff Green Considering Better Draft Class And No Trade Clause).

[sportscrazy]

The best historical comparison is Ray Allen to the Celtics...

Ray Allen and 35th Overall Draft Pick for Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and 5th Overall Draft Pick

Now considering the drop off from Oden/Durant/Horford/Conley to the next tier of players (Green/Jianlian/Brewer/Wright/Noah/Hawes) versus the strength of the 2017 draft (I think the drop off falls later with how top heavy this draft class is) plus the No Trade Clause, it definitely weakens 'Melo's value versus Allen's.

All-in-all, I say Carmelo Anthony and 2017 Bulls Second Round Draft Pick for Contract Filler (Szczerbiak), Raw Prospect On Rookie Contract That Would Be Considered A Bust (Delonte West) and 2017 Draft Pick In The 10-16 Range (Jeff Green Considering Better Draft Class And No Trade Clause).

Using the Clippers as an example...

Carmelo Anthony and 2017 Chicago Bulls Second Round Draft Pick for J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford, Paul Pierce and Brice Johnson is the closest comparison with the Knicks trading Redick to a team for a pick in the 10-16 range that would take the UFA risk on Redick for a shot at the playoffs.

[FrontPageNews]

They'd be lucky to get one good young player or prospect for him. The value is moving on from his contract and beginning the rebuild and there's only 2 teams who he would go to. They aren't getting a pick from Cleveland or LAC. They don't have any picks they can trade in the next 4-5 years. Those teams aren't trading a first that far away. They need to try and find a 3rd team to take Cleveland or LAC salary matching players and try and get the best pick they can for them. I can see a team giving up a first for shump and frye. I'm not sure anyone will give a first for rivers and Crawford. If the cavs are willing to add in the rights to cedi osman in the deal who would be mid round pick in this draft if he was in it then NY should jump all over it.