Luka Doncic

[reanimator]

I'm more worried about Doncic creativity as a ballhandler than I am his lateral quickness/speed though I think that limits his ceiling, too. Its not like people are down on him....I see him as top 5 in 2018 with a high floor, for example, but the hyperbole is reaching unbearable levels. I said the same thing when people were doing it with D'Angelo Russell and Ben Simmons, too.

[Duke4life831]

Ill admit I am beyond horrible at judging Euro talent. I only see youtube highlights of these guys and its so hard to get a good read of a player off of highlights.

But when it comes to Doncic Im not seeing a guy with superstar potential. When I compare him to say Hezonja, Hezonja looked to be the more promising player. He seemed to be much faster and much more explosive. I see Doncic looks to be the far superior playmaker than Hezonja but Doncic looks to be a below average athlete (for NBA 2 standards). He also appears a little stiff as well, im not seeing the most shifty of a guy with him and his handles dont look breathtaking either.

So im curious for the guys that actually have seen him, how does his ceiling compare to say Hezonja when he was coming out, do many see him not as the highest ceiling type of guy but a good solid high floor? I ask this cause I see the little headline at the top that there is buzz that he might go #1. I just dont see it. If he were in this upcoming draft I cant see someone taking him over say Josh Jackson. But again I know basically nothing and judging all of this off a few highlight videos which mean nothing.

[kayath]

Ill admit I am beyond horrible at judging Euro talent. I only see youtube highlights of these guys and its so hard to get a good read of a player off of highlights.

But when it comes to Doncic Im not seeing a guy with superstar potential. When I compare him to say Hezonja, Hezonja looked to be the more promising player. He seemed to be much faster and much more explosive. I see Doncic looks to be the far superior playmaker than Hezonja but Doncic looks to be a below average athlete (for NBA 2 standards). He also appears a little stiff as well, im not seeing the most shifty of a guy with him and his handles dont look breathtaking either.

So im curious for the guys that actually have seen him, how does his ceiling compare to say Hezonja when he was coming out, do many see him not as the highest ceiling type of guy but a good solid high floor? I ask this cause I see the little headline at the top that there is buzz that he might go #1. I just dont see it. If he were in this upcoming draft I cant see someone taking him over say Josh Jackson. But again I know basically nothing and judging all of this off a few highlight videos which mean nothing.

It is pretty simple. If you want to know, watch the whole game http://www.realmadrid.com/en/basketball.

[GimmeDat]

I agree that I think the 1st pick hype is a bit much - he's extremely mature both physically and game wise for his age, he's more or less without flaw, but his ceiling doesn't match guys like Ayton, Bamba, Porter etc.

Obviously it'll come down to how those guys do in college, but I see Doncic's ceiling as maybe Gordon Hayward with a little less scoring and a little more facilitating.

[Sports Geek]

Ill admit I am beyond horrible at judging Euro talent. I only see youtube highlights of these guys and its so hard to get a good read of a player off of highlights.

But when it comes to Doncic Im not seeing a guy with superstar potential. When I compare him to say Hezonja, Hezonja looked to be the more promising player. He seemed to be much faster and much more explosive. I see Doncic looks to be the far superior playmaker than Hezonja but Doncic looks to be a below average athlete (for NBA 2 standards). He also appears a little stiff as well, im not seeing the most shifty of a guy with him and his handles dont look breathtaking either.

So im curious for the guys that actually have seen him, how does his ceiling compare to say Hezonja when he was coming out, do many see him not as the highest ceiling type of guy but a good solid high floor? I ask this cause I see the little headline at the top that there is buzz that he might go #1. I just dont see it. If he were in this upcoming draft I cant see someone taking him over say Josh Jackson. But again I know basically nothing and judging all of this off a few highlight videos which mean nothing.

I used to like Hezonja a lot. Then he started having problems because he was too immature and made those kind of comments that aren't liked by veterans or staff in his team. Then I realize he was going to fail. He did. Doncic it is completely the opposite. He seems to be super humble and down to earth. He plays for his team and don't take unnecesary shots or plays too flashy. His first goal is to help the team winning. He has the right mentality. Obviously he has the talent too, but I have been saying this for years in this thread: he is just special. Why? No idea, he just is.

I watched Mirotic, Navarro, Rubio, Rudy,..., even before they made their debut as pros (I love to follow young talents), but the feeling I have when I watch Doncic playing is kind of: this is not possible. Now everybody is talking about Usman Garuba, a 14 y.o., 6'6" beast completely dominating older players (example: in the final of the U-16 European Championship, he led Spain to the title with 15 points, 11 rebounds and 10 blocks), But he doesn't have that thing I see in Doncic. What is it? No idea. Just a feeling, kind of: this kid could do even much more than he is doing right now, just give him the ball more. You give him the ball and good things happen.

[Mirotic12]

would you guys be less worried about Doncic's quickness or ability to create space if he could play the 4? not going to rampage about his size again but he is around 6'9 in shoes and 220lbs, and I have no doubt that he will likely grown an inch more, I think we can feel safe to say that he can be a playmaking combo-forward at 6'10 240 in his prime.
At that size, and against certain guys, his sheer quickness with his ball skills, or his explosiveness, esp when you add his ability to shoot it, touch, anticipation and overall IQ, arent going to matter as much.

No, he isn't. He's not 6-9 in shoes. He's 6-8 in shoes, at most. His teammate in Real Madrid, Othello Hunter, was measured by NBA at 6-8 in shoes, he was listed in NBA at 6-8 also. You can clearly see in any Real Madrid game that Hunter is taller than Doncic is. So no, he's not 6-9 in shoes. He's 6-7 to 6-8 in shoes.

Well from sources, he is 2.03m w/o shoes, so that's about 6'9 in shoes, I am not positive he will be every bit of that, but around 6'8-6'9 and he has an elite frame, I think he can play some 4 for sure.

Again, no he isn't. He is listed at 2.00 m (6-7) without shoes and 2.03 m (6-8) with shoes, by his team. And again, he looks shorter than Hunter, who was also measured and listed as 6-8 in shoes by NBA. He's definitely not 6-9.

Ill admit I am beyond horrible at judging Euro talent. I only see youtube highlights of these guys and its so hard to get a good read of a player off of highlights.

But when it comes to Doncic Im not seeing a guy with superstar potential. When I compare him to say Hezonja, Hezonja looked to be the more promising player. He seemed to be much faster and much more explosive. I see Doncic looks to be the far superior playmaker than Hezonja but Doncic looks to be a below average athlete (for NBA 2 standards). He also appears a little stiff as well, im not seeing the most shifty of a guy with him and his handles dont look breathtaking either.

So im curious for the guys that actually have seen him, how does his ceiling compare to say Hezonja when he was coming out, do many see him not as the highest ceiling type of guy but a good solid high floor? I ask this cause I see the little headline at the top that there is buzz that he might go #1. I just dont see it. If he were in this upcoming draft I cant see someone taking him over say Josh Jackson. But again I know basically nothing and judging all of this off a few highlight videos which mean nothing.

No one with any real basketball knowledge that had seen Hezonja play ever thought he was a good player. He was a good individual scorer in youth tournaments - that was basically all you could say about him if you were objective. Yeah, he is athletic, but nowhere near as athletic as people claimed he was. Yeah, he can shoot, but he's not close to the shooter people claimed either.

Bottom line, Hezonja was by far and away, by leaps and bounds, the worst player of Barca's team in the 2015 EuroLeague playoffs. No one that was objective and had watched him play, thought he was anything but a project with potential.

Ceiling? Doncic is already a much better player than Hezonja has ever been at any point in his career. So Doncic already beat the ceiling of Hezonja, whatever that is. I don't see how Hezonja is going to get all that much better, because his game is so dependent on taking open jump shots, and he's already not as good as Doncic is.

Honestly, I think it's a bit insulting to Doncic to even compare him to Hezonja.

[Duke4life831]

Ill admit I am beyond horrible at judging Euro talent. I only see youtube highlights of these guys and its so hard to get a good read of a player off of highlights.

But when it comes to Doncic Im not seeing a guy with superstar potential. When I compare him to say Hezonja, Hezonja looked to be the more promising player. He seemed to be much faster and much more explosive. I see Doncic looks to be the far superior playmaker than Hezonja but Doncic looks to be a below average athlete (for NBA 2 standards). He also appears a little stiff as well, im not seeing the most shifty of a guy with him and his handles dont look breathtaking either.

So im curious for the guys that actually have seen him, how does his ceiling compare to say Hezonja when he was coming out, do many see him not as the highest ceiling type of guy but a good solid high floor? I ask this cause I see the little headline at the top that there is buzz that he might go #1. I just dont see it. If he were in this upcoming draft I cant see someone taking him over say Josh Jackson. But again I know basically nothing and judging all of this off a few highlight videos which mean nothing.

I used to like Hezonja a lot. Then he started having problems because he was too immature and made those kind of comments that aren't liked by veterans or staff in his team. Then I realize he was going to fail. He did. Doncic it is completely the opposite. He seems to be super humble and down to earth. He plays for his team and don't take unnecesary shots or plays too flashy. His first goal is to help the team winning. He has the right mentality. Obviously he has the talent too, but I have been saying this for years in this thread: he is just special. Why? No idea, he just is.

I watched Mirotic, Navarro, Rubio, Rudy,..., even before they made their debut as pros (I love to follow young talents), but the feeling I have when I watch Doncic playing is kind of: this is not possible. Now everybody is talking about Usman Garuba, a 14 y.o., 6'6" beast completely dominating older players (example: in the final of the U-16 European Championship, he led Spain to the title with 15 points, 11 rebounds and 10 blocks), But he hasn't that thing I see in Doncic. What is it? No idea. Just a feeling, kind of: this kid could do even much more than he is doing right now, just give him the ball more. You give him the ball and good things happen.

So hes just got that "IT" factor? That is good enough answer to me. Some guys are like that, they may not have the freakish athletic ability but they just know how to get things done kind of like Curry. Im kind of the same way with Ball, you watch his highlights and he looks solid but not game changing highlights like a Fultz or DSJ highlights. But when I watch Ball I just see a guy that is a game changer.

[XTraderXL]

Doncic definitely has "IT". He might not be as flashy as some other players but that is because he wants to make sure he doesnt make unnecessary mistakes. Otherwise he is definitely able to show flash, he does it in blowouts all the time. What makes him special is his his BBIQ. At 18 in the second best league in the world, he always seems in control and knows what to do. He is already a very good defender and will only improve in the future.
And I really dont see what you guys are saying regarding his body. To me, he clearly has a teenagers body, look at his skinny arms and shoulders. He is a little hunched in the back and his movement on the court is still pretty adolescent. His body control is good but far from what it will be in 2-3 years when his body fully develops. I can clearly see that his body has a lot of room for improvement and his athleticism will not be a problem in the NBA. He has grown about 3cm over the summer and some grew some more since the season started. Just go look at the footage from last season and you will clearly see the difference in his size, you can even see the difference in the past 4 months.

[SportsGuy8]

Yeah, it's definitely the "IT" factor. Everyone gets too caught up in freakish athleticism, or lack thereof, forgetting that actually being good at basketball is what should matter the most. It's also the reason why most of the busts happen.

The Hezonja comparisons illustrate that the best. Many of us were warning everyone about Hezonja. Sure, he's more athletic, he can also be very flashy, but the main problem was always in his head and I'm not talking about him being too confident (even cocky), that's not even the main problem. When he played for Barcelona, he looked good in easy situations, where all he had to do was shoot when open, get easy dunks, easy fast-breaks etc., but every time he actually faced adversity (good defense), he started playing like a headless chicken. Whenever he penetrated, all was good when he could easily get to the basket, but when the defenders positioned well, he forced things and did something stupid. Doncic almost NEVER does that. Doncic simply has such unbelievable feel and understanding of the game, the main thing Hezonja always lacked.

It's not just Hezonja, the same thing is also a problem with most of American lottery picks that end up disappointing, but people always keep saying year after year "oh he's young, he's going to 'get it' someday". Well, that someday will probably NEVER come, and eventually that player is in his mid or even late 20s, still the same ... If a player doesn't have a good feel and understanding of the game by late teens, he's most likely NEVER going to get it (the exception are big men who started playing basketball very late).

And that's the main thing. Most of us Doncic supporters here simply see a once in generation feel and understanding of the game in him. Something that's incredibly rare, unique and actually hard to describe. And unlike some other players that might have had that in the past, he doesn't have any truly serious limitations.

[jrob23]

I'm starting to think Doncic's looks might be playing a part in all the hype. He's got model looks and is skilled. So there's lots of man crushes out there. But if you look at him objectively you'll see that he's not an NBA athlete...now. Like all young players you are judging him by what you believe he might become in a few years. I personally believe he WILL grow another couple of inches and be a stretch 4 at 6'10". I think that is the only way he succeeds. If he doesn't grow he'll be too stiff to play the 3 or point forward. His chance is to be Toni Kukoc. In order to do that he'll need to be taller. If he does grow and does have Kukoc upside like I believe, he is a potential lotter pick in next year's draft but not top 5. No way...there are kids you haven't even heard of who are going to fly onto the scene and wow everyone on top of who we already know about. Now I'm not saying he won't get overdrafted..because he probably will...but as far as talent he'll fall in that 7-15 range.

[Sports Geek]

I'm starting to think Doncic's looks might be playing a part in all the hype. He's got model looks and is skilled. So there's lots of man crushes out there.

Sorry, but my knowledge about English is limited. Are you saying we feel attraction for an underage?

[JPF]

Ill admit I am beyond horrible at judging Euro talent. I only see youtube highlights of these guys and its so hard to get a good read of a player off of highlights.

But when it comes to Doncic Im not seeing a guy with superstar potential. When I compare him to say Hezonja, Hezonja looked to be the more promising player. He seemed to be much faster and much more explosive. I see Doncic looks to be the far superior playmaker than Hezonja but Doncic looks to be a below average athlete (for NBA 2 standards). He also appears a little stiff as well, im not seeing the most shifty of a guy with him and his handles dont look breathtaking either.

So im curious for the guys that actually have seen him, how does his ceiling compare to say Hezonja when he was coming out, do many see him not as the highest ceiling type of guy but a good solid high floor? I ask this cause I see the little headline at the top that there is buzz that he might go #1. I just dont see it. If he were in this upcoming draft I cant see someone taking him over say Josh Jackson. But again I know basically nothing and judging all of this off a few highlight videos which mean nothing.

There were some players that were seemingly promising to be terrible as far as transition from euro to NBA goes. Scola, Nocioni, Juan Carlos Navarro (one of best euroleague players, had a 10ppg rookie season with Grizzlies and than returned IIRC), Nesterovič... all of them were lacking something, be it height, athleticism, but it the end they prooved that performing great in europe will translate at least to performing decently in NBA. A lot of talents you get to see in NBA coming from europe, skipped that part of actualy performing well in euroleague (or one of the stronger national leagues; a lot of NBA fans still refuse to believe that GM's of their respective teams are taking bigger risks than they'd want them to) - Dirk, Parker, Antetekoumpo worked out great and to be honest without that, yet all 3 had obvious reasons for that, but those are the exceptions to the rule that majority of euro busts haven't exactly prooved much beside potential while in europe. The level of performance is still a really strong indicator (not the only one, just trying to keep it short) on how a player will do in NBA and "performance" is always the first question you should ask yourself about when evaluating euro talents, than instead of the highlights also watch some videos when the guy screws up.

Interesting example imo would be Frank Ntilikina, who is a really intriguing prospect and if he progresses as expected might have a good NBA career in front of him. He is projected to go 10th by draftexpress in 2017. However apart from obvious potential and dominating youth cathegories, he neither played meaningfull minutes or some major role in senior competition. He is a definition of a prospect. Some GM's will take the risk and his agents will push for an early draft. As much as I like him and believe that shouldn't be the case here, that's where my "bust alert" goes of. As far as comparison with one year younger Dončič:
Ntilikina's stats in eurocup
Ntilikina in French league
Compared to:
Dončič in euroleague, which is a level or two above the competitions Ntilikina plays in.


Once again I' writing a novel , however that performance thing is what makes Dončič all that special. If someone asked me a mere year ago if there is a chance that a 17 years old would receive euroleague MVP of the week award twice in a season (just as Luka did and he might not stop there), I'd call him an idiot without any hesitation. The fact that he is playing less than 19 minutes per game and that he actualy runs big portion of Real's offense, achieving that while taking mere 5 shots per game, make it that more of an exception.
The differences with Hezonja performance wise is 2+ years of age. The performances Luka is showing as of now, aged 17, are already better than what Hezonja could at the age of 19 (take some college senior on the top5 team with great stats and imagine his draft stocks if he had those performances as a freshman) and Hezonja's performances in euroleague weren't bad.
Hezonja's body does offer more though, first step, vertical, I love his shooting mechanics, his upmost ceiling would be higher if it wasn't for the fact that potential doesn't win games and that "potential vs. performance" gap almost never closes entirely.
I still believe Mario should overcome the troubles he is having this season and develop into a decent player. The talent is there, the decision to go to NBA this early hurted his development. He is more talented and has higher upside than Bojan Bogdanović (one more example on how actual performance in euroleague transfers to NBA) without a doubt, however getting to that performance isn't something to be taken for granted.

SportGuy8 said it all, GM's get carried away by potential sometime, but it's their job to find something in a player that the other teams didn't to get an edge on them in the draft, but in the end it's being good at basketball what's all about.

[UcanUwill]

Ill admit I am beyond horrible at judging Euro talent. I only see youtube highlights of these guys and its so hard to get a good read of a player off of highlights.

But when it comes to Doncic Im not seeing a guy with superstar potential. When I compare him to say Hezonja, Hezonja looked to be the more promising player. He seemed to be much faster and much more explosive. I see Doncic looks to be the far superior playmaker than Hezonja but Doncic looks to be a below average athlete (for NBA 2 standards). He also appears a little stiff as well, im not seeing the most shifty of a guy with him and his handles dont look breathtaking either.

So im curious for the guys that actually have seen him, how does his ceiling compare to say Hezonja when he was coming out, do many see him not as the highest ceiling type of guy but a good solid high floor? I ask this cause I see the little headline at the top that there is buzz that he might go #1. I just dont see it. If he were in this upcoming draft I cant see someone taking him over say Josh Jackson. But again I know basically nothing and judging all of this off a few highlight videos which mean nothing.

Hezonja looked good in highlights and only highlights. He had no game besides solid explosiveness and a decent 3 point shot. But people fell in love with his so called potential, thinking - oh, he will just learn how dribble, facilitate and play defense. The optimism was just silly and based on nothing, its like believing Doncic will just develop Curry's handle and PJ Tucker's defense out of nowhere.

Doncic is 5 times the player Hezonja was, at least in Europe. He doesn't have spectacular game that will wow you, but he is solid. High BB IQ and good size, he will find the way to be positive on any team IMO. I do also question his ceiling, it looks limited, but the kid can play.

[SportsGuy8]

I'm starting to think Doncic's looks might be playing a part in all the hype. He's got model looks and is skilled. So there's lots of man crushes out there. But if you look at him objectively you'll see that he's not an NBA athlete...now. Like all young players you are judging him by what you believe he might become in a few years. I personally believe he WILL grow another couple of inches and be a stretch 4 at 6'10". I think that is the only way he succeeds. If he doesn't grow he'll be too stiff to play the 3 or point forward. His chance is to be Toni Kukoc. In order to do that he'll need to be taller. If he does grow and does have Kukoc upside like I believe, he is a potential lotter pick in next year's draft but not top 5. No way...there are kids you haven't even heard of who are going to fly onto the scene and wow everyone on top of who we already know about. Now I'm not saying he won't get overdrafted..because he probably will...but as far as talent he'll fall in that 7-15 range.

You're actually a perfect example of someone who "gets too caught up in freakish athleticism, or lack thereof, forgetting that actually being good at basketball is what should matter the most". Even many NBA scouts and GMs look at the prospects the same way you do, and that's the main reason why there are so many busts.

And "judging him by what we believe he might become in a few years"? Even if he doesn't improve AT ALL and stays completely the same he is now (which is impossible, no matter how advanced for his age he is), that's still at least a decent rotational player on basically every NBA team. I don't think you realize the level of play Real Madrid is at. They're actually competitive vs. many NBA teams (even played them quite a few times), they would shred any NCAA team to pieces, even final 4 teams.

Should teams have passed on Chris Mullin due to his severe lack of athleticism? Doncic is actually an athletic freak compared to him ...

Bah, at this point I'm also starting to believe you're just trolling ...

[SportsGuy8]

Doncic is 5 times the player Hezonja was, at least in Europe.

At this point it doesn't look like it's going to be much of a task to be 5 times the NBA player Hezonja is, either.

[UcanUwill]

Doncic is 5 times the player Hezonja was, at least in Europe.

At this point it doesn't look like it's going to be much of a task to be 5 times the NBA player Hezonja is, either.

Even tho I never liked Hezonja, I am not writing him off just yet.

[BillyKingGM]

I think Doncic might actually be almost as good of a playmaker as Ben Simmons. He seems to be better than JJ, and as good as Ball. I wonder what he would look like if he could lead a team like Ball does.

[Sports Geek]

And "judging him by what we believe he might become in a few years"? Even if he doesn't improve AT ALL and stays completely the same he is now (which is impossible, no matter how advanced for his age he is), that's still at least a decent rotational player on basically every NBA team. I don't think you realize the level of play Real Madrid is at. They're actually competitive vs. many NBA teams (even played them quite a few times), they would shred any NCAA team to pieces, even final 4 teams.

Bah, at this point I'm also starting to believe you're just trolling ...

Yeah, Real Madrid beat Oklahoma City Thunder this year. 142 - 137. Just a preseason game, but I am sure no NCAA team could have even competed with OKC.

I don't know if he is a trol, but he told us the hype is because we feel physical attraction for Doncic. He was the one pointing out that he looks like a model though.

[UcanUwill]

And "judging him by what we believe he might become in a few years"? Even if he doesn't improve AT ALL and stays completely the same he is now (which is impossible, no matter how advanced for his age he is), that's still at least a decent rotational player on basically every NBA team. I don't think you realize the level of play Real Madrid is at. They're actually competitive vs. many NBA teams (even played them quite a few times), they would shred any NCAA team to pieces, even final 4 teams.

Bah, at this point I'm also starting to believe you're just trolling ...

Yeah, Real Madrid beat Oklahoma City Thunder this year. 142 - 137. Just a preseason game, but I am sure no NCAA team could have even competed with OKC.

I don't know if he is a trol, but he told us the hype is because we feel physical attraction for Doncic. He was the one pointing out that he looks like a model though.

Hey man, Doncic is dreamy, and will be legal in a month, lol.

Real Madrid is a legit team, its far closer to NBA team than it is to NCAA team.

[SportsGuy8]

That explains why Doncic got those several round-MVPs. The formula, stats and numbers must have a soft spot for his looks ...

Doncic is 5 times the player Hezonja was, at least in Europe.

At this point it doesn't look like it's going to be much of a task to be 5 times the NBA player Hezonja is, either.

Even tho I never liked Hezonja, I am not writing him off just yet.

Yeah, same here. I still think he can end up being a solid 6th man type of player, scoring punch from the bench.

I think Doncic might actually be almost as good of a playmaker as Ben Simmons. He seems to be better than JJ, and as good as Ball. I wonder what he would look like if he could lead a team like Ball does.

It's the part of his game that's a bit hidden this year, that's one of the sacrifices he (and his game) had to take playing for such a top team. It's rather unfortunate because it might even be the BEST part of his game.

I hope he doesn't get drafted by a team with a dominant PG, something that's actually quite likely since there's lots of top PGs in this year's draft. And Boston (perhaps the most likely destination for Doncic) already has a dominant PG (even if Isaiah is running hotter than the sun this year and returns back to the mean next year).