The Half Season Rookie Review

Post #1 » by **lilfishi22** » Thu Feb 2, 2017 12:47 pm

We've just hit February and have played close to 50 games now so it's a little over the halfway mark but nonetheless, I'd like to know what people think of what our young players have shown thus far.

Just to be clear, this is NOT a thread to complain about minutes. This is purely about what they've shown on the court and how you think they project based on what you've seen. We all watched the same game but how we actually perceive on-court play can be vastly different and it's this difference that I want brought to the table.

I know they've only played 68 games combined in limited minutes and it's very early to make future predictions so you can reserve right to change your views as you see more of them play

Dragan Bender
The Review: I'll start off in draft order. As some know, I wasn't a big fan of the Bender pick but I just can't help but be intrigued by his combination of size, skill and youth whenever he plays now. He's shown plenty of promise on both ends of the court and I've been impressed with his court IQ even though he's not necessarily always able to consistently deliver physically. I think he makes very good decisions out there on the court despite being the youngest players in the league.

He hasn't delivered the flashy power dunks or matched up as well physically as Chriss but I still believe he's more likely to reach his potential than Chriss. He's a very cerebral player who brings a unique combination of skills, size and the fundamentals to figure things out. If there's one rookie I had to put in my untouchables list, it would be him.

The Future: I think his future is bright. The NBA is clearly trending towards high IQ bigs with guard skills and he fits that description. The number of these skills bigs who aren't especially physically talented and actually getting playing time on teams across the NBA is astounding. 5-10yrs ago, these players would be considered LONG term projects and may never stick in the NBA long enough to get consistent play time. Now with the way games are being played; favoring more guard orientated scoring and penetrating rather than big man play, these mobile bigs with range are getting more playing time than ever. This bodes well for a team with that player exactly.

Marquese Chriss
The Review: I was a lot more excited about this pick than I was the Bender pick. To me, he was more ready to play at this level because what he lacked in polish and skills, he more than made up for with raw athleticism and talent which in the NBA could get you minutes on a rebuilding team. He was a surprise early on and thus far has continued to contribute but not consistently, which is to be expected.

With all that said, I'm still not particularly impressed with him. He's super flashy with his highlight real dunks but his athleticism can only make up for his poor fundamentals for so long at the highest level. It's not like awareness and fundamentals can't be picked up through experience but not everyone does and many don't. Here is where his fans and the very small minority of fans like me deviate on his future.

The Future: I know it sounds hypocritical to say the rookie who's played fewer games, fewer minutes and has been arguably less productive on the floor is a bright spot while the other, similarly aged rookie is less so. The key difference here is not a matter of skill or athleticism, it's a matter of basketball IQ. Chriss can pick up skills; he can shoot 3's better and he can learn to be a better face-up player etc but being able to learn all these skills and applying them on the court are two different things. Being able to apply these skills on the court requires a certain level of basketball IQ to recognise where the weaknesses are and how to exploit it. He's a rookie that few teams prepare for thus far so he does surprise defenders with his athleticism but as he becomes more prolific, fewer teams will let him get the jump on them.

I'm just not sure he'll reach the potential we know he has. What I think will hurt his stock the most is on defense. Much of defense is effort but almost equally as important is defensive awareness which he is woefully lacking. He's the definition of a star or bust type of player...OK perhaps not to that extreme but if he isn't a star or even a consistent player, he' may end up a Hakim Warrick type of journeyman. I'll try and stay optimistic but I'm still not convinced he's one of our big men of the future.

Tyler Ulis
The Review:We haven't seen much of him which is a shame since I do think he does have the skills and the IQ to be productive. What I have seen is that teams do not respect his shooting and they shouldn't because he's shooting well below 50% on 2pt FGA's. This affects his ability to run a team because if he's shooting, it means he's not passing. Don't get me wrong, he has great court vision but he does take a lot of shots and I think that has a lot to do with his inability to get off quality passes over bigger and better defenders at the NBA level. Perhaps it's just an adjustment period he needs to get through.

The Future:I don't see star potential in him so far. A lot of that has to do with the fact that I haven't seen enough of him but from what I have, I see solid PG but not a star nor our PG of the future.

sleepyvato · Post #2 » by **sleepyvato** » Thu Feb 2, 2017 3:17 pm

Great post lilfishi! I agree 100% with you, which is why I wouldn't trade Bender for anyone realistically at this point because I believe that he has the most potential out of all our rookies this year to one day become a star in this league.

Zelaznyrules · Post #3 » by **Zelaznyrules** » Thu Feb 2, 2017 4:27 pm

I'd agree on all 3 OP counts although I'm slightly more hopeful regarding Ulis. His defensive intensity saves the day for me. I don't like that he seems to be operating under a mandate to shoot as soon as he enters the game but from what I've heard from Watson, it probably is accurate. I'd like to see him get more time with a workable lineup rather than always being stuck with Knight and Tucker.

GetYourPHX · Post #4 » by **GetYourPHX** » Thu Feb 2, 2017 5:26 pm

I've been real impressed with our rooks as well. I can't believe these guys are carving out real roles on an NBA team at 19 years old. That's incredibly impressive. All of them have a chance to make it in this league if they stay focused and keep working hard. They have the talent.

Especially Chriss. He's gotten sooooooo much better over the last 10 or so games. Even last night when he was missing everything, you can tell he's learning how to play his game and get shots he's comfortable with.

Beetlejuice · Post #5 » by **Beetlejuice** » Thu Feb 2, 2017 6:10 pm

Negative
I am kind of down on Ulis, it seems his man can get anywhere he desires with and without the ball. No change of direction or nothing. I have learned over the years to give almost everybody, still young, a half a year or a year to get something going, but Ulis has disappointed me on that front.

I must admit i was super down on Warren on defense first 2 seasons, but as he returns to form ( psyhologically ) in the next few months i might have been wrong on him. Maybe he is just subpar not unplayable.

Postive:
Bender and Chriss in 2 years(hopefully)

nevetsov · Post #6 » by **nevetsov** » Fri Feb 3, 2017 2:45 am

Nice thread, fish. I agree with your reviews so I want to focus on the future, specifically that of Bender and Chriss. Yes, that old chestnut.

My position is that our current long term plan A is to have them develop as our starting PF-C combo.
Standing at 7'1 and 6'10, Bender and Chriss are not undersized to be our inside duo. Their skill sets are complementary and fit the modern game.

The only question is can they bulk up enough to withstand the rigors of matching up with the bruising PFs and Cs full time.

I'm of the opinion that both will fill out over the next 2-3 years. Chriss playing PF next to Chandler is comparable to how Dwight Howard started at PF next to Tony Battie for his first 2 seasons before moving to C full time. Similarly, KG started at SF for 2 seasons before assuming the PF spot for over a decade. Young guys with the skills to play down a position can use that to their advantage during their adjustment to the NBA game.

So I see Chriss continuing to start at PF for the foreseeable future, next to Chandler. Having a productive Chandler allows us to bring Bender along slowly, and I see the timeline for Bender's ascension running parallel to Chandler's decline. I imagine our hope is that, by the time Chandler is ready to move to a bench role, that Chriss has sized up enough to move to C, and that Bender is ready to play full time PF.

I did have a whole paragraph on how this affects Len's position with the team, but removed it because it's kinda off topic. In a nutshell, I think the promise shown by both Bender and Chriss at 19 has given us the confidence to explore our options with him, which is possibly why we saw his name come up in the initial Cousins trade rumour.

Post #7 » by **lilfishi22** » Fri Feb 3, 2017 4:07 am

sleepyvato wrote:Great post lilfishi! I agree 100% with you, which is why I wouldn't trade Bender for anyone realistically at this point because I believe that he has the most potential out of all our rookies this year to one day become a star in this league.

Not sure he'll be a star and I think Bender type players are trending with teams looking into Europe and taking a punt on those types of players more so than ever. I think in a few short years, there could be a major influx of tall mobile bigs which means Bender wouldn't be as unique. I still think Chriss has more potential but Bender is more likely to reach his ceiling.

sleepyvato · Post #8 » by **sleepyvato** » Fri Feb 3, 2017 4:25 am

lilfishi22 wrote:Not sure he'll be a star and I think Bender type players are trending with teams looking into Europe and taking a punt on those types of players more so than ever. I think in a few short years, there could be a major influx of tall mobile bigs which means Bender wouldn't be as unique. I still think Chriss has more potential but Bender is more likely to reach his ceiling.

Well, there is more than one tier when it comes to being a star IMO. There is superstar and all-star, now I don't think Bender will ever reach the first tier but I can see him reaching the second tier, provided that we develop him correctly of course. The reason I believe that he can become an all-star in the future is because of his ability to influence games on both ends of the floor and because of his high basketball IQ. I see Bender being able to get a good amount of points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in his prime. Now he may never become a scorer like a Nowitzki or a Porzingis but he should be able to score well enough while still contributing in many other ways that can lead to wins. It's still too early to be sure of anything but I have high hopes for this kid and I see him as a crucial part of the Suns future.

Post #9 » by **lilfishi22** » Fri Feb 3, 2017 5:32 am

sleepyvato wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:Not sure he'll be a star and I think Bender type players are trending with teams looking into Europe and taking a punt on those types of players more so than ever. I think in a few short years, there could be a major influx of tall mobile bigs which means Bender wouldn't be as unique. I still think Chriss has more potential but Bender is more likely to reach his ceiling.

Well, there is more than one tier when it comes to being a star IMO. There is superstar and all-star, now I don't think Bender will ever reach the first tier but I can see him reaching the second tier, provided that we develop him correctly of course. The reason I believe that he can become an all-star in the future is because of his ability to influence games on both ends of the floor and because of his high basketball IQ. I see Bender being able to get a good amount of points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in his prime. Now he may never become a scorer like a Nowitzki or a Porzingis but he should be able to score well enough while still contributing in many other ways that can lead to wins. It's still too early to be sure of anything but I have high hopes for this kid and I see him as a crucial part of the Suns future.

He doesn't have the talent or potential to reach superstar level and I don't think that's any secret. I think all-star isn't likely either though that's debatable. He does well now being effective on both ends of the court but I do think he lacks a certain x-factor, a mean-ness to take his game to a whole another level offensively or defensively. He didn't come into the league with the natural offensive awareness or skills that KP brought which is what I think separated KP from a lot of other Euro bigs to come into the league in recent years. Defense and passing is where I think he'll excel the most but I have doubts it'll be enough to take him to an all-star level. He can still be one of the best players on our team but few players reach an all-star level of production and impact.

sleepyvato · Post #10 » by **sleepyvato** » Fri Feb 3, 2017 4:52 pm

lilfishi22 wrote:He doesn't have the talent or potential to reach superstar level and I don't think that's any secret. I think all-star isn't likely either though that's debatable. He does well now being effective on both ends of the court but I do think he lacks a certain x-factor, a mean-ness to take his game to a whole another level offensively or defensively. He didn't come into the league with the natural offensive awareness or skills that KP brought which is what I think separated KP from a lot of other Euro bigs to come into the league in recent years. Defense and passing is where I think he'll excel the most but I have doubts it'll be enough to take him to an all-star level. He can still be one of the best players on our team but few players reach an all-star level of production and impact.

Well, good thing that Bender is very young and still has plenty of time to develop an x-factor. We shall just have to wait and see.

WeekapaugGroove · Post #11 » by **WeekapaugGroove** » Fri Feb 3, 2017 5:06 pm

Chriss has a long ways to go but Im encouraged by a lot of things he does and he seems to be learning and progressing. The nice thing with him is hes so athletic that he has a little room for error when it comes to developing his skills. If he can just get better in a few areas he can be a very useful player.

Bender gets an incomplete grade from me. He absolutely needs to get stronger but we all knew that coming into the year so im not holding that against him. To me the key for him will be developing a consistent 3 pt shot. If teams are forced to respect that shot then it will open up the playmaking part of his game. I think once he gets stronger hell be a plus defender.

Ullis probably isnt a starter in this league but he was a second round pick so its not like he needs to be great for it to be a win. If he can shoot a little better he can be a useful backup.

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RaisingArizona · Post #12 » by **RaisingArizona** » Fri Feb 3, 2017 7:09 pm

Chriss A-
Bender B-
Ulis C+

Post #13 » by **batsmasher** » Sat Feb 4, 2017 8:15 am

To me, the difference between Marquese and Dragan is trying to see a path to success. I can't think of many low BBIQ athletes who have ever come close to their ceiling. Guys that made significant improvements on that front. Maybe a guy like Whiteside?

Then I look at Bender: higher IQ wing who can possibly play small ball 5 in the future. That just screams modern NBA. There's pretty much a success story on every team so clearly Dragan has an easier path to success. I'd love to see him turn into an Otto Porter type.

Post #14 » by **lilfishi22** » Sat Feb 4, 2017 11:55 pm

batsmasher wrote:To me, the difference between Marquese and Dragan is trying to see a path to success. I can't think of many low BBIQ athletes who have ever come close to their ceiling. Guys that made significant improvements on that front. Maybe a guy like Whiteside?

Then I look at Bender: higher IQ wing who can possibly play small ball 5 in the future. That just screams modern NBA. There's pretty much a success story on every team so clearly Dragan has an easier path to success. I'd love to see him turn into an Otto Porter type.

You could argue perhaps Amare is a relatively low BBIQ athlete who came very close to his potential. That's pretty much how I saw it in my piece. Bender to me is a versatile 4 with the ability to play 3 and 5. He doesn't have the ceiling Chriss does but there's a much better chance Bender hits his.

TOO · Post #15 » by **TOO** » Sun Feb 5, 2017 12:01 am

lilfishi22 wrote:
batsmasher wrote:To me, the difference between Marquese and Dragan is trying to see a path to success. I can't think of many low BBIQ athletes who have ever come close to their ceiling. Guys that made significant improvements on that front. Maybe a guy like Whiteside?

Then I look at Bender: higher IQ wing who can possibly play small ball 5 in the future. That just screams modern NBA. There's pretty much a success story on every team so clearly Dragan has an easier path to success. I'd love to see him turn into an Otto Porter type.

You could argue perhaps Amare is a relatively low BBIQ athlete who came very close to his potential. That's pretty much how I saw it in my piece. Bender to me is a versatile 4 with the ability to play 3 and 5. He doesn't have the ceiling Chriss does but there's a much better chance Bender hits his.

I dont see why Chriss' ceiling is any higher than Benders. Benders is a great athlete in his own right, better handle, higher BBIQ, the form on his shot is fantastic, and he's got a better grasp of the basketball fundamentals than Chriss. Chriss gets an overrated ceiling because he jumps high, Bender will always have a higher ceiling and floor because he will always be able to contribute in many areas.

Damkac · Post #16 » by **Damkac** » Sun Feb 5, 2017 8:51 am

Read on Twitter

Post #17 » by **lilfishi22** » Mon Feb 6, 2017 12:07 am

From that chart, it looks like Bender has been a bit more productive in the less minutes he's received. But Chriss also playing against starters.

Post #18 » by **batsmasher** » Mon Feb 6, 2017 1:13 am

lilfishi22 wrote:From that chart, it looks like Bender has been a bit more productive in the less minutes he's received. But Chriss also playing against starters.

Forgive my ignorance but isn't Chris's also playing with starters. I've never really understood the argument and I've seen it plenty.

Post #19 » by **lilfishi22** » Mon Feb 6, 2017 1:22 am

batsmasher wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:From that chart, it looks like Bender has been a bit more productive in the less minutes he's received. But Chriss also playing against starters.

Forgive my ignorance but isn't Chris's also playing with starters. I've never really understood the argument and I've seen it plenty.

I'm not sure what the argument you're referring to is :-?

Post #20 » by **batsmasher** » Mon Feb 6, 2017 1:36 am

lilfishi22 wrote:
batsmasher wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:From that chart, it looks like Bender has been a bit more productive in the less minutes he's received. But Chriss also playing against starters.

Forgive my ignorance but isn't Chris's also playing with starters. I've never really understood the argument and I've seen it plenty.

I'm not sure what the argument you're referring to is

"Player X's advanced stats are going to be worse because he is playing against starters."