2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2

Ballerhogger · Post #241 » by **Ballerhogger** » Sun Feb 12, 2017 3:47 pm

Bergmaniac wrote:Kareem won in 1976 when his team was 6th in the West (out of 9 teams) and had a 40-42 record.

Different era, different league.

K_chile22 · Post #242 » by **K_chile22** » Sun Feb 12, 2017 5:37 pm

Bergmaniac wrote:Kareem won in 1976 when his team was 6th in the West (out of 9 teams) and had a 40-42 record.

40 years ago. I don't think that's very relevant.

Green89 · Post #243 » by **Green89** » Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:12 pm

Hero wrote:
K_chile22 wrote:
inquisitive wrote:OKC only 19 games away from 50 wins....might be a bad sign for Harden.

There's only 28 games left (time flies) . They'd have to go 19-9, which is unlikely, FiveThirtyEight has Rockets at 56 and Thunder at 47

That's way too big a gap for Westbrook to win MVP. At this point it seems fairly certain that OKC is gonna finish 6th/7th which won't cut it. If they go on a serious run then sure he can have MVP consideration but I really doubt it.

Harden's to lose.

7th seed and 11 turnovers last night in a loss. IMHO, an MVP candidate can't hurt your team that bad. 11 turnovers is backbreaking. I definitely think Harden's got the edge over Westbrook at this point.

PeptoKlepto · Post #244 » by **PeptoKlepto** » Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:26 pm

K_chile22 wrote:My MVP rankings that don't matter but I feel like sharing:
1. Harden
2. Kawhi
3. Russ (mostly because 7th seed looking more and more likely)
4. KD
5(a). Steph
5(b). IT

LeBron noticeably missing here.

PeptoKlepto · Post #245 » by **PeptoKlepto** » Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:29 pm

Rankings haven't changed much for me at this point:

1. Russell Westbrook
2. James Harden

3. Stephen Curry
4. LeBron James
5. Kevin Durant

6. Kawhi Leonard
7. John Wall
8. Isaiah Thomas

Bergmaniac · Post #246 » by **Bergmaniac** » Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:30 pm

Green89 wrote:
Hero wrote:
K_chile22 wrote:There's only 28 games left (time flies) . They'd have to go 19-9, which is unlikely, FiveThirtyEight has Rockets at 56 and Thunder at 47

That's way too big a gap for Westbrook to win MVP. At this point it seems fairly certain that OKC is gonna finish 6th/7th which won't cut it. If they go on a serious run then sure he can have MVP consideration but I really doubt it.

Harden's to lose.

7th seed and 11 turnovers last night in a loss. IMHO, an MVP candidate can't hurt your team that bad. 11 turnovers is backbreaking. I definitely think Harden's got the edge over Westbrook at this point.

Harden has more turnovers per game this season. He also had a 12 turnovers game (which his team lost).

Green89 · Post #247 » by **Green89** » Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:43 pm

Bergmaniac wrote:
Green89 wrote:
Hero wrote:
That's way too big a gap for Westbrook to win MVP. At this point it seems fairly certain that OKC is gonna finish 6th/7th which won't cut it. If they go on a serious run then sure he can have MVP consideration but I really doubt it.

Harden's to lose.

7th seed and 11 turnovers last night in a loss. IMHO, an MVP candidate can't hurt your team that bad. 11 turnovers is backbreaking. I definitely think Harden's got the edge over Westbrook at this point.

Harden has more turnovers per game this season. He also had a 12 turnovers game (which his team lost).

Ouch, didn't know he had a 12 turnover game. Oh, my. They both will set a record for MVP having the most turnovers, whoever wins it. I think Harden and the 3 seed holds more weight over Russ at the 7th seed.

Per CBS sports, it's a 3 man race. Harden-Westbrook-Thomas.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-mvp-rankings-lebron-james-falls-isaiah-thomas-rises-as-race-tightens/

K_chile22 · Post #248 » by **K_chile22** » Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:09 pm

PeptoKlepto wrote:
K_chile22 wrote:My MVP rankings that don't matter but I feel like sharing:
1. Harden
2. Kawhi
3. Russ (mostly because 7th seed looking more and more likely)
4. KD
5(a). Steph
5(b). IT

LeBron noticeably missing here.

He doesn't have the counting stats other guys have, is probably coasting a little, and his team is under performing. Not much of a case besides being the best player in the world when he wants to be, and that's not what the award is about

laika · Post #249 » by **laika** » Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:46 pm

Green89 wrote:Ouch, didn't know he had a 12 turnover game. Oh, my. They both will set a record for MVP having the most turnovers, whoever wins it. I think Harden and the 3 seed holds more weight over Russ at the 7th seed.

Per CBS sports, it's a 3 man race. Harden-Westbrook-Thomas.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-mvp-rankings-lebron-james-falls-isaiah-thomas-rises-as-race-tightens/

That looks like an awful prediction for the top 3. I would trust the basketball reference tracker a whole lot more.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

Durant probably isn't that high due to narrative problems. However, BR is probably correct that Westbrook and Thomas have almost no chance to win. Voters are going to heavily go against the "best player on the best team" narrative this year that usually wins the MVP. However, they'll feel guilty enough about ignoring Curry/Durant that they will pick Harden as the compromise candidate rather than take Westbrook on such an inferior team.

I think Harden wins it going away- But Curry is the real MVP as we'll see in the playoffs : )

PeptoKlepto · Post #250 » by **PeptoKlepto** » Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:05 pm

K_chile22 wrote:
PeptoKlepto wrote:
K_chile22 wrote:My MVP rankings that don't matter but I feel like sharing:
1. Harden
2. Kawhi
3. Russ (mostly because 7th seed looking more and more likely)
4. KD
5(a). Steph
5(b). IT

LeBron noticeably missing here.

He doesn't have the counting stats other guys have, is probably coasting a little, and his team is under performing. Not much of a case besides being the best player in the world when he wants to be, and that's not what the award is about

LeBron has a much higher net ratings, RPM, and +/- than both Kawhi and IT. Not sure how you can exclude him here.

DROB27 · Post #251 » by **DROB27** » Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:15 am

Kawhi needs to be in everyone's top three guy is carrying scrubs out there , only the stats nerds who don't actually watch the games would disagree

_Game7_ · Post #252 » by **_Game7_** » Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:25 am

Lebron is averaging 26 8 9 and leading the best team in the east. Anyone leaving him off your top 3 list shouldn't be taken seriously.

K_chile22 · Post #253 » by **K_chile22** » Mon Feb 13, 2017 6:28 am

DROB27 wrote:Kawhi needs to be in everyone's top three guy is carrying scrubs out there , only the stats nerds who don't actually watch the games would disagree

This person that doesn't watch games and just uses numbers doesn't exist. I'm huge on numbers and I have Kawhi second. Some people just struggle to put the numbers in context. Boosting players for having a bad bench or bringing them down for having a good one is not how on/off is supposed to work. It's a data point, not the end all be all.

Calling everyone who disagrees with you nerds is rather childish tho

K_chile22 · Post #254 » by **K_chile22** » Mon Feb 13, 2017 6:35 am

fromthetop321 wrote:Lebron is averaging 26 8 9 and leading the best team in the east. Anyone leaving him off your top 3 list shouldn't be taken seriously.

And Kawhi is averaging a more efficient, 25.6 5.9 3.4 while playing elite defense on a 60+ win team where he's the only all All-star (and don't say LMA. He's hasn't been good.)

Harden is averaging a more efficient 29 11 8 on a team with a better record and zero all stars

Westbrook has the whole triple double thing I don't really care for, but since we are using counting stats, 30-10-10 on a weird fitting roster winning more games than they should based on talent level

Maaaaybe Westbrook is the only one you could make an argument over because the record is so much better, but at the same time the Cavs are worse than we thought they'd be this year. That's typically bad for MVP votes.

RCM88x · Post #255 » by **RCM88x** » Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:22 pm

K_chile22 wrote:
fromthetop321 wrote:Lebron is averaging 26 8 9 and leading the best team in the east. Anyone leaving him off your top 3 list shouldn't be taken seriously.

And Kawhi is averaging a more efficient, 25.6 5.9 3.4 while playing elite defense on a 60+ win team where he's the only all All-star (and don't say LMA. He's hasn't been good.)

Harden is averaging a more efficient 29 11 8 on a team with a better record and zero all stars

Westbrook has the whole triple double thing I don't really care for, but since we are using counting stats, 30-10-10 on a weird fitting roster winning more games than they should based on talent level

Maaaaybe Westbrook is the only one you could make an argument over because the record is so much better, but at the same time the Cavs are worse than we thought they'd be this year. That's typically bad for MVP votes.

"More efficient"

Lebron: 53/38/69, 58eFG%, 61%ts, 2.1 assist:turnover (+11.9 on/off)
Kawhi: 49/39/90, 54eFG%, 62%ts, 1.62 assist:turnover (+0.3 on/off)
Harden: 44/35/85, 52eFG%, 61%ts, 1.92 assist:turnover (+3.2 on/off)
Westbrook: 42/34/83, 47eFG%, 54%ts, 1.85 assist:turnover (+16.0 on/off)

There is literally no way possible that you can say that Kawhi or Harden are "more efficient" than LeBron.

Goodfellaz · Post #256 » by **Goodfellaz** » Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:48 pm

RCM88x wrote:
K_chile22 wrote:
fromthetop321 wrote:Lebron is averaging 26 8 9 and leading the best team in the east. Anyone leaving him off your top 3 list shouldn't be taken seriously.

And Kawhi is averaging a more efficient, 25.6 5.9 3.4 while playing elite defense on a 60+ win team where he's the only all All-star (and don't say LMA. He's hasn't been good.)

Harden is averaging a more efficient 29 11 8 on a team with a better record and zero all stars

Westbrook has the whole triple double thing I don't really care for, but since we are using counting stats, 30-10-10 on a weird fitting roster winning more games than they should based on talent level

Maaaaybe Westbrook is the only one you could make an argument over because the record is so much better, but at the same time the Cavs are worse than we thought they'd be this year. That's typically bad for MVP votes.

"More efficient"

Lebron: 53/38/69, 58eFG%, 61%ts, 2.1 assist:turnover (+11.9 on/off)
Kawhi: 49/39/90, 54eFG%, 62%ts, 1.62 assist:turnover (+0.3 on/off)
Harden: 44/35/85, 52eFG%, 61%ts, 1.92 assist:turnover (+3.2 on/off)
Westbrook: 42/34/83, 47eFG%, 54%ts, 1.85 assist:turnover (+16.0 on/off)

There is literally no way possible that you can say that Kawhi or Harden are "more efficient" than LeBron.

agreed! with that being said, there is still no way lebron is ahead of harden westbrook or kawhi. I have lebron 4th. Hard to see him ranked ahead of kawhi while having a better team and worse record.

Ballerhogger · Post #257 » by **Ballerhogger** » Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:55 pm

Reasons the MVP voting may be given to lower seed. 5-8.
1. Both contending teams have absurd amount of talent. Warriors and Cavs.
2. In KD case he's playing with 3 other all Stars and the media will have hard time justifying that pick.
3. Lebron January performances pretty much ended his chances.
4. The rockets "may struggle in 2nd half as teams defense starts to pick up. Seeding in the West is going be very important.
5. Westbrook has put up some gaudy numbers, along with Harden as well.
6. You can already see Espn trying lean Westbrook into their favor. Every time they talk about him it's about the triple doubles he puts up.

Ballerhogger · Post #258 » by **Ballerhogger** » Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:57 pm

My dark horse MVP is wall. If he can get the Wizards to 2nd seed, there's a chance to keep top 4 tradition alive.

The-Power · Post #259 » by **The-Power** » Mon Feb 13, 2017 4:01 pm

K_chile22 wrote:Boosting players for having a bad bench or bringing them down for having a good one is not how on/off is supposed to work. It's a data point, not the end all be all.

Totally agreed. But Kawhi isn't exactly "carrying scrubs" - as the other user proclaimed - considering his team is a +8.9 NetRtg without him on the floor. Unless he somehow manages to carry them while not being on the court...

Triples333 · Post #260 » by **Triples333** » Mon Feb 13, 2017 4:25 pm

RCM88x wrote:
K_chile22 wrote:
fromthetop321 wrote:Lebron is averaging 26 8 9 and leading the best team in the east. Anyone leaving him off your top 3 list shouldn't be taken seriously.

And Kawhi is averaging a more efficient, 25.6 5.9 3.4 while playing elite defense on a 60+ win team where he's the only all All-star (and don't say LMA. He's hasn't been good.)

Harden is averaging a more efficient 29 11 8 on a team with a better record and zero all stars

Westbrook has the whole triple double thing I don't really care for, but since we are using counting stats, 30-10-10 on a weird fitting roster winning more games than they should based on talent level

Maaaaybe Westbrook is the only one you could make an argument over because the record is so much better, but at the same time the Cavs are worse than we thought they'd be this year. That's typically bad for MVP votes.

"More efficient"

Lebron: 53/38/69, 58eFG%, 61%ts, 2.1 assist:turnover (+11.9 on/off)
Kawhi: 49/39/90, 54eFG%, 62%ts, 1.62 assist:turnover (+0.3 on/off)
Harden: 44/35/85, 52eFG%, 61%ts, 1.92 assist:turnover (+3.2 on/off)
Westbrook: 42/34/83, 47eFG%, 54%ts, 1.85 assist:turnover (+16.0 on/off)

There is literally no way possible that you can say that Kawhi or Harden are "more efficient" than LeBron.

"Literally no way possible"?

Lebron is averaging 33.9 points per 100 possessions with a 61.0 TS%, 118 Ortg and 26.1 PER

Kawhi is averaging 39.0 points per 100 possessions with a 62.0 TS%, 122 Ortg and a 28.1 PER

Beard is averaging 38.3 points per 100 possessions with a 61.4 TS%, 118 Ortg and a 27.4 PER

Seems to be a couple ways one could argue their efficiency over LBJ's.

Who will win MVP?