2017 OKC Thunder Trade Discussion

[Old Man Game]

People really gotta look around the league. Man it's weird to me that people can't enjoy this team at all and are miserable with it. Sometimes you have to just roll with the punches and see what comes of it. I don't know what is available exactly, nobody does. But having a bad team with a high pick makes that even tougher to accomplish and way more uncertain.

I love watching Russ, but sports is about competition. If never want to feel my team is stuck. That's pretty much where we are at right now,

So the whole league is stuck? Because look around. This is called being a normal team. People aren't used to it, but it is.

No, the whole league isn't stuck. This is more or less how it breaks down.
-Contending - Examples, GSW, Cleveland, San Antonio
- Making the playoffs but not really contending (i.e. total longshots to actually win the championship that would require something extremely unlikely such as key injuries to other teams) -Examples, OKC, Boston, Memphis
-Not making the playoffs but unwilling to straight up tank because ownership won't allow it - Example, Sacramento, Orlando, NY Knicks
-Tanking - [They know who they are]

The teams in the first and last categories have a path forward. Category 1 is trying to win it right now and have a reasonable shot of doing so. Category 4 is comfortable in its current suckitude and ultimately trying to lay the ground work for later success by stockpiling assets.

It is those in categories 2 and 3 one could define as stuck. No clear and likely path upward to the next category. Teams in these categories need something fairly unusual to happen to move up in the hierarchy, say injuries to other teams, a draft pick turning into an All Star, an unlikely trade scenario playing out, or landing a big name free agent.

We're clearly in category 2 right now. It's not that there is zero chance of moving into category 1, its just that the odds are extremely low (not so fun fact, Vegas currently has the Wizards with better title odds than us). So you ask yourself, would you rather bet those long odds, or start over? Clearly ownership will continue to make the playoffs as long as they can, every playoff game is an extra $1 million. But that doesn't mean its necessarily the right play anymore than it would have been for the Sonics to soldier on with Ray Allen back in 2007.

At some point if you can't reach escape velocity you have to start over with a new rocket.

[thedoppelganger]

Russ doesn't have a decision this summer. He has already made his decision. He maximized his money to stay one more year and hit FA when he is eligible for his new max, 35%. That will be after next season. At that point he'll leave for his 35% max on a team that gives him a chance at a championship. He took an extra $8M to stay one more year AND to avoid having to do a 1+1 like kd did. Russ didn't want to screw over his future team by needing them to sign him with cap room in consecutive off-seasons.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the NBA grandfather Russ into this new extension rule so he can sign it this summer, just to make sure we didn't get overly screwed by the CBA yet again? That's what I mean by he'll either sign on, or if he doesn't then that's his sign to Presti that he wants out and we'll be able to trade him for a haul at least.

[Kizz Fastfists]

Also, unlike many who do not see it now, I am one of the few who believe there is a good chance of KD coming back this Summer.

Just to be clear that means OKC gives away Dipo and Kanter for nothing in return. You really think that is going to make the team a contender? He isn't coming back and I don't think Russ would accept it even if he wanted to.

Russ/Payne/Semaj
Roberson/Morrow
kd/Singler/Huestis
Sabonis/Grant
Adams/Lauvergne/Dakari

Throw in a rookie and a vet minimum player and that is pretty much your roster. You think that is a contender? No one off the bench that can score. No one off the bench that can play defense with the possible exception of Huestis and Dakari. People think the bench is bad this year that would be a disaster. Sure, the starting unit could outplay the opposing starters most nights, but that bench would get killed so bad it would be fighting with the Clippers, if healthy, and Jazz for the 4 seed.

[Kizz Fastfists]

Are you saying that you think Presti WILL trade Russ?

I'm keeping faith that Presti will trade Russ because he is a smart enough man to know it is what is best for the organization.

[ThunderBolt]

Are you saying that you think Presti WILL trade Russ?

I'm keeping faith that Presti will trade Russ because he is a smart enough man to know it is what is best for the organization.

What do we get back? The Brooklyn pick, Jaylen Brown and anything else? Anyone else who could give something as good or better?

[Kizz Fastfists]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the NBA grandfather Russ into this new extension rule so he can sign it this summer, just to make sure we didn't get overly screwed by the CBA yet again? That's what I mean by he'll either sign on, or if he doesn't then that's his sign to Presti that he wants out and we'll be able to trade him for a haul at least.

Russ signed an extension this past off-season. Can he sign another this off-season? I believe so, but there is no way in hell that he would or it would have been a longer deal last off-season. If Russ resigns this off-season he gets 30% of the cap. If he doesn't then he gets 35% of the cap next off-season. He got an extra $8-9M THIS season by signing a one year extension to make the same money he was going to make next season no matter where he signed. He hits FA when he can increase his pay drastically, from 30% of the cap to 35% of the cap. That 35% contract will be signed AFTER next season to whatever team he is going to spend the rest of his prime and early declining years with trying to win a championship.

James Harden signed a similar extension this off-season. He's not signing another contract until he gets his 35% contract, but he hits FA the off-season he is eligible for it. kd signed a one year deal for his last 30% season and will get a 35% contract this off-season. Look at LeBron signing a series of one year deals because the cap spike was more than the 4% raise he could have gotten signing a longer deal. He finally signed a multi-year deal this off-season because the cap is done taking big jumps.

[Kizz Fastfists]

What do we get back? The Brooklyn pick, Jaylen Brown and anything else? Anyone else who could give something as good or better?

Boston can offer the best package with Brown, Brooklyn's pick, guaranteed top 4, and other picks. Philly can make a very strong offer with Noel, the Lakers' pick, which will either be 4/5 this year or unprotected next year, their own pick, Sacramento's 2019 first round pick that is unprotected, etc. The Suns could offer Booker, Bledsoe and their first round pick, currently projected to be 3rd. I think Boston is the best bet, although if it doesn't happen before the deadline it won't happen until after they strike out in FA.

By not trading Russ before the season when he had a Boston offer on the table that included the Brooklyn pick and would have made OKC's pick top 5 also Presti might have missed the chance to minimize the length of the rebuild.

[thedoppelganger]

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/report-james-harden-russell-westbrook-eligible-for-enormous-extensions-in-july/
This summer, Westbrook could sign a five-year, $219 million contract extension that would begin in the 2018-19 season. He'll make $28.5 million in 2017-18.
The league and union worked together on the Harden/Westbrook arrangement with the belief that neither player, nor the Rockets or Thunder, should be punished for honoring the spirit of the rules: encouraging players to remain with current teams on contract extensions. When those deals were negotiated to raise the players' salaries and add extra years to the contracts, the teams and players were unaware that the new CBA would offer such substantial financial rewards for waiting another year.

That's what I'm referring to. Financially it's in his best interest to sign the extension this summer. That's why Presti trades him if he doesn't sign it.

[NetsWorld]

Also, unlike many who do not see it now, I am one of the few who believe there is a good chance of KD coming back this Summer.

Just to be clear that means OKC gives away Dipo and Kanter for nothing in return. You really think that is going to make the team a contender? He isn't coming back and I don't think Russ would accept it even if he wanted to.

Russ/Payne/Semaj
Roberson/Morrow
kd/Singler/Huestis
Sabonis/Grant
Adams/Lauvergne/Dakari

Throw in a rookie and a vet minimum player and that is pretty much your roster. You think that is a contender? No one off the bench that can score. No one off the bench that can play defense with the possible exception of Huestis and Dakari. People think the bench is bad this year that would be a disaster. Sure, the starting unit could outplay the opposing starters most nights, but that bench would get killed so bad it would be fighting with the Clippers, if healthy, and Jazz for the 4 seed.

You saw how far the Thunder went last year. Rather that than just being a playoff team

[spearsy23]

Are you saying that you think Presti WILL trade Russ?

I'm keeping faith that Presti will trade Russ because he is a smart enough man to know it is what is best for the organization.

I'll agree that presti probably knows what's best for the organization. The problem is that you're wrong about what that is. The best thing for the organization is 5 years of winning and playoff basketball with one of the most exciting players in the game. That makes money and doesn't make you look like a second rate organization by having a guy sign an extension then trading him somewhere he's never shown any interest in playing.

Ray Allen was 32 when presti traded him and the sonics had missed the playoffs in consecutive years. Russ is 28, and much better than ray Allen. There's nothing wrong with being a good team for a few years and hoping you break through like Dallas did. you can ALWAYS tank, when Russ is out of his prime Oladipo and Steven will be squarely in the middle of theirs and you can move them all for picks at that time.

You treat it like an inevitability that tanking works, but in reality there's no proof of that. Who was the last championship team built by gutting a roster and developing draft picks?

[thedoppelganger]

Are you saying that you think Presti WILL trade Russ?

I'm keeping faith that Presti will trade Russ because he is a smart enough man to know it is what is best for the organization.

I'll agree that presti probably knows what's best for the organization. The problem is that you're wrong about what that is. The best thing for the organization is 5 years of winning and playoff basketball with one of the most exciting players in the game. That makes money and doesn't make you look like a second rate organization by having a guy sign an extension then trading him somewhere he's never shown any interest in playing.

Ray Allen was 32 when presti traded him and the sonics had missed the playoffs in consecutive years. Russ is 28, and much better than ray Allen. There's nothing wrong with being a good team for a few years and hoping you break through like Dallas did. you can ALWAYS tank, when Russ is out of his prime Oladipo and Steven will be squarely in the middle of theirs and you can move them all for picks at that time.

You treat it like an inevitability that tanking works, but in reality there's no proof of that. Who was the last championship team built by gutting a roster and developing draft picks?

This is a solid point about staying good enough to be relevant. I know it's not fun to think of this team being stuck in the second tier for the next 5 years, but I'm not sure the fan base/city is ready to support a team that's winning 20 games a year. Yes the support was great the first couple years when they were terrible, but that's to be expected when you have the RoY and having a professional sports team is still this brand new thing to the city.

The hope is that the team receives the level of support that other stable champion-less small market teams do (Utah, Memphis), yet I'm apprehensive what would happen to the team if it went through a couple years of low attendance/no national TV games/low revenue and ownership had some down years in the energy sector.

FWIW, don't think there's any chance Presti trades Russ the rest of his time in OKC if he signs an extension this summer. I think he and Russ would have an understanding though that if Russ doesn't sign one this summer, that's a sign that he's walking the next summer and we better trade him. No financial reason for Russ to skip the extension then sign with us the following summer as UFA.

[NetsWorld]

Are you saying that you think Presti WILL trade Russ?

I'm keeping faith that Presti will trade Russ because he is a smart enough man to know it is what is best for the organization.

I'll agree that presti probably knows what's best for the organization. The problem is that you're wrong about what that is. The best thing for the organization is 5 years of winning and playoff basketball with one of the most exciting players in the game. That makes money and doesn't make you look like a second rate organization by having a guy sign an extension then trading him somewhere he's never shown any interest in playing.

Ray Allen was 32 when presti traded him and the sonics had missed the playoffs in consecutive years. Russ is 28, and much better than ray Allen. There's nothing wrong with being a good team for a few years and hoping you break through like Dallas did. you can ALWAYS tank, when Russ is out of his prime Oladipo and Steven will be squarely in the middle of theirs and you can move them all for picks at that time.

You treat it like an inevitability that tanking works, but in reality there's no proof of that. Who was the last championship team built by gutting a roster and developing draft picks?

Dallas did a good job of getting the right players to surround Nowitzki that year. OKC will have to figure out what's going to work with Russ to help bring this team to the promised land.

[ThunderBolt]

Clippers and Raptors in trade talks for Gallinari. I guess that means the nuggets aren't going to be trading Chandler.

[spearsy23]

I'm keeping faith that Presti will trade Russ because he is a smart enough man to know it is what is best for the organization.

I'll agree that presti probably knows what's best for the organization. The problem is that you're wrong about what that is. The best thing for the organization is 5 years of winning and playoff basketball with one of the most exciting players in the game. That makes money and doesn't make you look like a second rate organization by having a guy sign an extension then trading him somewhere he's never shown any interest in playing.

Ray Allen was 32 when presti traded him and the sonics had missed the playoffs in consecutive years. Russ is 28, and much better than ray Allen. There's nothing wrong with being a good team for a few years and hoping you break through like Dallas did. you can ALWAYS tank, when Russ is out of his prime Oladipo and Steven will be squarely in the middle of theirs and you can move them all for picks at that time.

You treat it like an inevitability that tanking works, but in reality there's no proof of that. Who was the last championship team built by gutting a roster and developing draft picks?

Dallas did a good job of getting the right players to surround Nowitzki that year. OKC will have to figure out what's going to work with Russ to help bring this team to the promised land.

Oh I definitely agree that making that breakthrough is almost impossible without wholesale changes, and i don't think presti can pull it off. But there's nothing lost by trying.

[spearsy23]

Clippers and Raptors in trade talks for Gallinari. I guess that means the nuggets aren't going to be trading Chandler.

On the flip side, what could the clippers possibly be offering that we couldn't match? I think gallo would be the best fit possible for this roster.

[ThunderBolt]

Clippers and Raptors in trade talks for Gallinari. I guess that means the nuggets aren't going to be trading Chandler.

On the flip side, what could the clippers possibly be offering that we couldn't match? I think gallo would be the best fit possible for this roster.

The clips don't have much. Raptors have Norman Powell, a guy Kizz mentioned would be a good fit for us. I dont know if we could be a third player in that deal and come away with Powell.

[bondom34]

Clippers and Raptors in trade talks for Gallinari. I guess that means the nuggets aren't going to be trading Chandler.

On the flip side, what could the clippers possibly be offering that we couldn't match? I think gallo would be the best fit possible for this roster.

Nothing. Full quote:

Now that the Jusuf Nurkic trade we've been anticipating for weeks has materialized at last, league sources say Danilo Gallinari is a prime Nugget to watch between now and the deadline. The Raptors and Clippers are among the teams said to be monitoring Gallinari's availability, amidst a growing belief that Denver is prepared to move him, given that the Nuggets anticipate that Gallinari will bypass the final season of his current contract (valued at $16.1 million) and join Millsap on the open market, and they don't plan to spend big to retain the Italian.

Seems they're interested, not they're actually getting him.

[spearsy23]

Clippers and Raptors in trade talks for Gallinari. I guess that means the nuggets aren't going to be trading Chandler.

On the flip side, what could the clippers possibly be offering that we couldn't match? I think gallo would be the best fit possible for this roster.

Nothing. Full quote:

Now that the Jusuf Nurkic trade we've been anticipating for weeks has materialized at last, league sources say Danilo Gallinari is a prime Nugget to watch between now and the deadline. The Raptors and Clippers are among the teams said to be monitoring Gallinari's availability, amidst a growing belief that Denver is prepared to move him, given that the Nuggets anticipate that Gallinari will bypass the final season of his current contract (valued at $16.1 million) and join Millsap on the open market, and they don't plan to spend big to retain the Italian.

Seems they're interested, not they're actually getting him.

I assumed, but if the nuggets really want to move him (and Toronto backs out) we might as well make a run at him since la is the one team we could beat in a bidding war.

[thedoppelganger]

Robes wouldn't be a bad fit on the Nuggets actually - they need a wing stopper, and if Murray develops into their PG of the future, they'd have enough shooting from the rest of their starters that he wouldn't kill them. Was going to suggest a deal around him for Chandler, but didn't realize Chandler is only a 34% career 3 point shooter, which I'm sure would dip to 24% based off how the rest of our team shoots when wide open.

[Old Man Game]

You guys bringing up Russ' age relative to other players are missing the point. We're stuck in a sort of dead end cycle here, too good to improve through the draft, unable to attract free agents, unlikely to swing game changing trades. His age is immaterial to this assessment. The only things his age is relevant to is how many years of futility you are willing to endure before pulling the plug and how much you are going to get for him in return when you finally do.