BUd losing his grip on GMing?

[tbhawksfan1]

Bud coming out; again, on his claim to keep Sap is showing the Hawks dire need for a capable GM. They are a 4-6 seed that has a very low ceiling this year, and because of contract situation, an even lower ceiling going into next season.

There has been a talent drain going on for years; core players walking for nothing, no difference makers picked up in trade, terrible drafting and only lateral FA moves. The result is that 2 of our 3 best players are old and when Sap signs will contribute to a bad and worsening cap situation. When you add Thabo, that's 3 out of 4 that are old.

Our most celebrated recent growth has been from THjr, which has saved us from sinking to lottery level. But I can't get too excited over THJr because he's expiring, going to cost now to re-sign and not really that good. If he's our starting SG going forward, that is yet another position that is a weakness compared to most other teams.

Where is our growth coming from going forward? Schro will continue to grow into an average to slightly above average starter. THJr, if re-signed, is a decent sixth man / under average starter. DH and Sap are goning to go down hill more or less quickly and only Sap is presently good. DH contributes, can have a great game occaisionally, but is only about average. They are very expensive, declining starters going forward. Prince and Bembry are OK rooks that may develop to average starter or flame out. No great upside appartant for the moment. Our pick will be about 20 and the other picks we've accumulated are late firsts or seconds.

The Hawks are mortgaging present opportunities to get better for short-term mediocre results. If we don't do it now, we will have less assets to do it later.

For those that dis-agree with my rebuild opinion, I'd like to see your hypothetical Hawks roster next season and demonstration that this is an improving team going forward.

When we had Ferry, I could squint and think that maybe we were improving. Since Bud took over, I don't see it. I see a roter dominated by older guys, talent drain, bad picks,lateral FA moves and a mind set that says spend up to the cap to make the playoffs and that's good enough. Very good coach, terrible GM

[Jamaaliver]

The article in question:

Budenholzer on Millsap: ‘He’s not going anywhere’

Continued speculation about the future of Paul Millsap with the NBA trade deadline looming ended with a few words.

“He’s not going anywhere,” said Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer, who also serves as president of basketball operations, to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Monday. “You can write that.”

Budenholzer reiterated the franchise’s position about their four-time all-star forward and best player before the Hawks played at the Trail Blazers.

Hawks principal owner Tony Ressler has been with the Hawks recently, at home and on the road, and there have been meetings about the direction of the franchise, according to a person familiar with the situation.

So, the Hawks could lose Millsap in the offseason without anything in return – as happened last season with Al Horford.

However if Millsap does sign elsewhere, the Hawks would have in excess of $20 million to spend on another player.

AJC


The only thing that really gives me comfort on this issue is that the owner is even traveling with the team, focused on the direction of the franchise.

The fact that the top brass aren't sitting back ready to coast for more years as a second rate organization is at least a bit comforting.

[tbhawksfan1]

The article in question:

Budenholzer on Millsap: ‘He’s not going anywhere’

Continued speculation about the future of Paul Millsap with the NBA trade deadline looming ended with a few words.

“He’s not going anywhere,” said Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer, who also serves as president of basketball operations, to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Monday. “You can write that.”

Budenholzer reiterated the franchise’s position about their four-time all-star forward and best player before the Hawks played at the Trail Blazers.

Hawks principal owner Tony Ressler has been with the Hawks recently, at home and on the road, and there have been meetings about the direction of the franchise, according to a person familiar with the situation.

So, the Hawks could lose Millsap in the offseason without anything in return – as happened last season with Al Horford.

However if Millsap does sign elsewhere, the Hawks would have in excess of $20 million to spend on another player.

The only thing that really gives me comfort on this issue is that the owner is even traveling with the team, focused on the direction of the franchise.

The fact that the top brass aren't sitting back ready to coast for more years as a second rate organization is at least a bit comforting.

Yeah, this isn't surprising given that so many think the Hawks are waffling at best, floudering at worst. Other fans and GM's can see the train wreck coming. The $20M in cap space coming from potentially letting Sap walk will bring back less than Sap will get, so would be lateral at best. Trade Sap and benefit from the cap space and his trade value. Get back young guys with potential, exp and picks. That's better than cap space. And even if you get the cap space, that doesn't get you the FAs that you want.

Can't talk "facts" because noone knows what they are doing about the future. That's the big problem. Best is to move now assets to invest in better tomorrow

[Jamaaliver]

Yeah, this isn't surprising given that so many think the Hawks are waffling at best, floudering at worst. Other fans and GM's can see the train wreck coming. The $20M in cap space coming from potentially letting Sap walk will bring back less than Sap will get, so would be lateral at best. Trade Sap and benefit from the cap space and his trade value. Get back young guys with potential, exp and picks. That's better than cap space. And even if you get the cap space, that doesn't get you the FAs that you want.

Can't talk "facts" because noone knows what they are doing about the future. That's the big problem. Best is to move now assets to invest in better tomorrow

You are preaching to the choir, brother.

I agree on getting value for Millsap. I also acknowledge that cap space doesn't guarantee a player to spend it on.

I do wonder...what happens if TOR puts us out in the first round of the playoffs this year?

Will Bud lose his post as top personnel decision-maker?

[tbhawksfan1]

Yeah, this isn't surprising given that so many think the Hawks are waffling at best, floudering at worst. Other fans and GM's can see the train wreck coming. The $20M in cap space coming from potentially letting Sap walk will bring back less than Sap will get, so would be lateral at best. Trade Sap and benefit from the cap space and his trade value. Get back young guys with potential, exp and picks. That's better than cap space. And even if you get the cap space, that doesn't get you the FAs that you want.

Can't talk "facts" because noone knows what they are doing about the future. That's the big problem. Best is to move now assets to invest in better tomorrow

You are preaching to the choir, brother.

I agree on getting value for Millsap. I also acknowledge that cap space doesn't guarantee a player to spend it on.

I do wonder...what happens if TOR puts us out in the first round of the playoffs this year?

Will Bud lose his post as top personnel decision-maker?

That's exactly the point I'm making. When we flail to the end of this season and next years team is in shambles, the story will have already been written. As I say very nice coach, very bad GM.

Another point is; if the owners also see it coming, then they must also be OK with it. That's why I say they're in the revenue business and not the sports business. Let's see; no big signings except to replace our lost FA. Clearly playing and planning for present mediocrity over contending. Didn't replace departed GM. Doesn't look good.

I don't want the Hawks to lose. but want a team trending up. This team's upside is waaaay too low to invest in the present. Last chance was with Horf. Re-sign him and bring in a nice FA and we would have been contender range. After losing Horf for nothing, we should have gone into rebuild.

The Hawks know this, revenue is the deciding factor in their choice and that sucks for a fan that wants to win

[Jamaaliver]

When we flail to the end of this season and next years team is in shambles, the story will have already been written. As I say very nice coach, very bad GM.

I don't want the Hawks to lose. but want a team trending up. This team's upside is waaaay too low to invest in the present.

This has been my mantra for the past few years. I was calling for a rebuild when we got swept by the Cleveland LeBrons...back in 2009.


Since then, we've remained a second tier team. We had a great 2015 regular season. But returned to mediocrity in the playoffs. Fans and front office execs alike were blinded by a modicum of success, and then committed to a product that had no real shot at defeating elite teams in a 7-game series.

But, everyone outside of Atlanta saw this coming. It's why no one really had us pegged to be a top team in 2016 following a 60 victory campaign. It was a fluke to anyone objectively watching.

And we're stuck, back on the treadmill. Reflecting on all the past opportunities we chose to ignore.

(NOTE: And most of the top competition in the East now features former Hawks that they paid almost nothing to acquire. We got weaker and out rivals got stronger. Making our current malaise even more painful.)

[tbhawksfan1]

There might be a way to beat the Cavs, GSW etc. If not now, soon. But the Hawks strategy hasn't been working and it's past time to do something else.

I'm like you, the strategy change should have come long ago. Now we're in a much worse situation. How they can continue to try to sell this and how can some still be buying

[td00]

Watching the Portland game last night, it looked like Portland had the better roster. But man, they've put a lot of money into that roster and they aren't rising up the standings any time soon.

I say that because I have to like our roster better, because our Big 3, Sap, Dwight & DS, know how to produce in the final minutes. I would like for Dwight to get more touches/shots up, but doesn't look like that is going to happen. I hate it that his FTs are still an enigma. He is what he is, and if I had to choose Al or Dwight, I still like Dwight, which includes the salary numbers/length.

We don't have enough shooters for this offense IMO. We can't spread it out where everyone can hit that long range shot. Seems like we shoot a lot less 3s this year than previous years, and that might be part of trying to engage Dwight.

If we trade Sap now, we're dropping down quite a bit IMO. I dont' think we get legit value for him at this point.

We're going to have to compete w/CLE right now along with not letting Boston make it to the ECF. That would ire a lot of folks around here. I think we're as good as the rest of the East after that.

Thabo helps us w/defense and we don't have a go-to in the backcourt to offset that, so improvement there is needed. Someone out West has to have something that can help us now.

[jayu70]

Someone out West has to have something that can help us now.

Portland is looking to cut salary and get more picks.
Phoenix wants a star for their young players or picks for their veterans.

Hawks have Splitter, Scott, Moose and Thabo as expiring contracts. As for picks (not including our own) : Brooklyn and Miami 2017 2nds, Minny 1st (2018,19,20), Cavs 2019 1st, Was 2019 2nd.

[Jamaaliver]

If we trade Sap now, we're dropping down quite a bit IMO.

We're going to have to compete w/CLE right now along with not letting Boston make it to the ECF. That would ire a lot of folks around here. I think we're as good as the rest of the East after that.

Do you feel confident we can beat TOR in a 1st round series? Even with their addition of Ibaka?



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[reazun]

Bud coming out; again, on his claim to keep Sap is showing the Hawks dire need for a capable GM. They are a 4-6 seed that has a very low ceiling this year, and because of contract situation, an even lower ceiling going into next season.

There has been a talent drain going on for years; core players walking for nothing, no difference makers picked up in trade, terrible drafting and only lateral FA moves. The result is that 2 of our 3 best players are old and when Sap signs will contribute to a bad and worsening cap situation. When you add Thabo, that's 3 out of 4 that are old.

Our most celebrated recent growth has been from THjr, which has saved us from sinking to lottery level. But I can't get too excited over THJr because he's expiring, going to cost now to re-sign and not really that good. If he's our starting SG going forward, that is yet another position that is a weakness compared to most other teams.

Where is our growth coming from going forward? Schro will continue to grow into an average to slightly above average starter. THJr, if re-signed, is a decent sixth man / under average starter. DH and Sap are goning to go down hill more or less quickly and only Sap is presently good. DH contributes, can have a great game occaisionally, but is only about average. They are very expensive, declining starters going forward. Prince and Bembry are OK rooks that may develop to average starter or flame out. No great upside appartant for the moment. Our pick will be about 20 and the other picks we've accumulated are late firsts or seconds.

The Hawks are mortgaging present opportunities to get better for short-term mediocre results. If we don't do it now, we will have less assets to do it later.

For those that dis-agree with my rebuild opinion, I'd like to see your hypothetical Hawks roster next season and demonstration that this is an improving team going forward.

When we had Ferry, I could squint and think that maybe we were improving. Since Bud took over, I don't see it. I see a roter dominated by older guys, talent drain, bad picks,lateral FA moves and a mind set that says spend up to the cap to make the playoffs and that's good enough. Very good coach, terrible GM

I think your being a little pessimistic on the talent we have now. However, I see your point. We are not contenders and Millsap is our best asset to trade. My guess is that Bud is gonna keep him and then let him walk to free up that cap space in 2018 when half the All Star team are free agents. Of course, that is risky and yeah, its stupid b/c there is no reason to think that anyone better than Millsap will come to Atlanta in 2018. Bro, im with you.. I dont know why he doesnt trade him now. He is an All-Star again this year..make some moves now while he has good trade value.

[td00]

If we trade Sap now, we're dropping down quite a bit IMO.

We're going to have to compete w/CLE right now along with not letting Boston make it to the ECF. That would ire a lot of folks around here. I think we're as good as the rest of the East after that.

Do you feel confident we can beat TOR in a 1st round series? Even with their addition of Ibaka?



Sent from my iPad using RealGM Forums

Yes, even if it goes 7. Toronto is not built any better than what Bud has put together. THJ has stepped up in this role, and getting Thabo back will only help. Howard > Ibaka IMO and that team is struggling.
CLE is the goal, the rest of the teams are beatable with our current roster. I like our post depth, and if Bud does make a move, its for more shooting. I would love to see Bledsoe (reasonable salary) in this lineup, as I've wanted to see for quite a while. I don't expect it to happen, but Phx will not continue with that backcourt roster. Bledsoe would love to go to CLE as a Lebron fav, but getting him may not be easy. Could he gel into this roster quick enough?

[Yungsta404]

Honestly I think if they don't try to rebuild now while their assets have good value they are just going to set themselves for a long slow painful rebuild in the next 2 to 3 years unless they can find and develop an undervalued player into an all star like millsap, which I think it is less likely these days with how role players are being paid these days or you can draft 1. We are a Dwight howard injury away and/or a sharp Paul Millsap decline to being a lottery team with very little assets.

I say a team like the Celtics is one of the gold standards of how to properly rebuild on the fly. They realized early on that they were not going anywhere after that playoff series against the Knicks and traded Rondo, Pierce, Garnett while they were still somewhat attractive and didn't ride them into retirement.

Now they are a top seeded team with tons of flexible and assets and only cost them the playoffs for 1 year. They have the option to add a top 10 talent like Jimmy butler if they are willing to pay the price. We literally have none of that. This is the difference between an elite front office with some luck and our front office.

[td00]

Honestly I think if they don't try to rebuild now while their assets have good value they are just going to set themselves for a long slow painful rebuild in the next 2 to 3 years unless they can find and develop an undervalued player into an all star like millsap, which I think it is less likely these days with how role players are being paid these days or you can draft 1. We are a Dwight howard injury away and/or a sharp Paul Millsap decline to being a lottery team with very little assets.

I say a team like the Celtics is one of the gold standards of how to properly rebuild on the fly. They realized early on that they were not going anywhere after that playoff series against the Knicks and traded Rondo, Pierce, Garnett while they were still somewhat attractive and didn't ride them into retirement.

Now they are a top seeded team with tons of flexible and assets and only cost them the playoffs for 1 year. They have the option to add a top 10 talent like Jimmy butler if they are willing to pay the price. We literally have none of that. This is the difference between an elite front office with some luck and our front office.

Ainge simply stole the Net's future with that deal for Garnett&Pierce. That will always be hard to duplicate. Howard is not going to be attractive enough at this point, and I'd like to see him continue to play here as we finally have a legit rebounder/shot blocker.
I think we need a guy who splits time at the 1&2 to spell DS and also be able to defend Thomas, Irving and Lowry. If we can somehow get a guy without taking away from the frontline, we are in good shape. Do I want to trade Baze? Not really, but you gotta give to get and I think he's still young enough to get better on his current salary, unlike what DeMarre Carroll got from TOR.

Too much talent in the West not to be able to bring a couple of those guys to the East and help us take on LeBron & Irving.

[D21]

I think your being a little pessimistic on the talent we have now. However, I see your point. We are not contenders and Millsap is our best asset to trade. My guess is that Bud is gonna keep him and then let him walk to free up that cap space in 2018 when half the All Star team are free agents. Of course, that is risky and yeah, its stupid b/c there is no reason to think that anyone better than Millsap will come to Atlanta in 2018. Bro, im with you.. I dont know why he doesnt trade him now. He is an All-Star again this year..make some moves now while he has good trade value.

The problem is that we need to beat CLE, and that they are great because it's exactly the kind of deal they don't make.
They don't trade an All-Star, but their role players, for other players with higher salary to increase their total salaries and re-sign the good players.

If we wanted to catch them, we should trade guys like Splitter, Scott,... or even Bazemore because he's not impacting the team like he should regarding his contract.

You are in win now, or rebuilding. If we are rebuilding, we can trade Millsap. If you want to win, you trade the players you don't use or have a negative impact and you get other that teams don't want anymore, even if they look a bit overpaid, and then you trade them or you re-sign them.

[jayu70]

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[td00]

Reading tea leaves in the AJC, sounds like the Hawks are trying to add by moving some of our bench + Splitter.

No one is going to take Baze at this point, so all they have to dangle THJ, which doesn't make sense to me.

I don't expect Bud to move either TP or DB yet. He's still trying to see separation between the two, but I myself like to keep both.

As far as potential guys coming in? Sounds like PHX is willing to take on salary for more assets. So it will probably take more than one piece to get anyone who can contribute this year.

[D21]

Reading tea leaves in the AJC, sounds like the Hawks are trying to add by moving some of our bench + Splitter

And this what I said for the last months... it's either rebuild or win now, and to win now, you need to trade your expiring or injured players and add some talent.
This is the only way to stay in touch of CLE.
They don't let rotation players expire, they trade even if it's for more salaries.

One example of trade I would make (if no better option) is trading Splitter and filler for Monroe, because even if it's not the best fit (we need more on the wing), he's still a good passer and great offensive option, and you can always trade Monroe this summer or next season.

It's not by trading an expiring star that you win now, but by trading expiring rotation players and adding salaries.
Splitter is expiring and injured, so he should have been traded before Korver.

[Jamaaliver]

Reading tea leaves in the AJC, sounds like the Hawks are trying to add by moving some of our bench + Splitter

This is the only way to stay in touch of CLE. They don't let rotation players expire, they trade even if it's for more salaries.

One example of trade I would make (if no better option) is trading Splitter and filler for Monroe...he's still a good passer and great offensive option, and you can always trade Monroe this summer or next season.

It's not by trading an expiring star that you win now, but by trading expiring rotation players and adding salaries.
Splitter is expiring and injured, so he should have been traded before Korver.

I love it. At worst it's a lateral move, but could definitely come into play in certain playoff matches.

No one is going to take Baze at this point,

Agreed. I'd have traded Bazemore and our 2017 first round pick in a heartbeat to ORL to get an expiring Ibaka. I doubt that is something ORL would jump at, though. (Is Terrance Ross and TOR's 1st rounder better than Kent Bazemore and ATL's 1st rounder?)