2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread

[LloydFree]

Higher ranked players come first within a Tier.

Tier 1: NONE (this is the Anthony Davis, Karl Towns, healthy Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons tier)

Tier 2: Ball, Jackson, Fultz, Isaac

Tier 3: Monk, Tatum, Smith, Fox

Tier 4: Markkanen, Ntilikina, Bridges

I'm hoping we can get one guy each from Tier 2 and 3. We probably need the Lakers pick to convey at #4 to get a Tier 2 player, so I hope they finish as low as possible (meaning 2nd worst only ahead of Brooklyn).

Piggy backing off your tier system, I got:

Tier 1: NONE (this is the Anthony Davis, Karl Towns, healthy Joel Embiid tier)

Tier 2: Ball, Jackson

Tier 3: Smith, Isaac, Fultz, Fox, Monk

Tier 4: Bridges, Tatum, Markkanen, Rabb

[janmagn]

am I the only one who sees a Dirk Nowitzki-type of player in Markkanen?

No you are not


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[Ericb5]

Higher ranked players come first within a Tier.

Tier 1: NONE (this is the Anthony Davis, Karl Towns, healthy Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons tier)

Tier 2: Ball, Jackson, Fultz, Isaac

Tier 3: Monk, Tatum, Smith, Fox

Tier 4: Markkanen, Ntilikina, Bridges

I'm hoping we can get one guy each from Tier 2 and 3. We probably need the Lakers pick to convey at #4 to get a Tier 2 player, so I hope they finish as low as possible (meaning 2nd worst only ahead of Brooklyn).

Piggy backing off your tier system, I got:

Tier 1: NONE (this is the Anthony Davis, Karl Towns, healthy Joel Embiid tier)

Tier 2: Ball, Jackson

Tier 3: Smith, Isaac, Fultz, Fox, Monk

Tier 4: Bridges, Tatum, Markkanen, Rabb

That's sort of where I am too.

If we add Simmons and Ingram into these tiers I would make Simmons in 1, and Ingram in 3.


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[cksdayoff]

Watch on YouTube

could be a nice catch and shoot guy, with elite D

[Vince5693]

Monk is having a really good game so far. I really like this kid.
He's constantly moving and finding the open spot, he can straight up shoot the ball, and he's the off the ball guard that I think would fit well with what we're building. We would just need a PG with stout D.
He's very undersized and it shows even at this level. When ever he's down low, he's getting pushed around and giving up good position.

[Slizeezyc]

Monk is having a really good game so far. I really like this kid.
He's constantly moving and finding the open spot, he can straight up shoot the ball, and he's the off the ball guard that I think would fit well with what we're building. We would just need a PG with stout D.
He's very undersized and it shows even at this level. When ever he's down low, he's getting pushed around and giving up good position.

Spoiler: Monk would have to guard PGs as he's woefully unprepared to do anything else at this point due to size and strength.

So you probably mean a PG/wing that can guard multiple positions.

[Vince5693]

Monk is having a really good game so far. I really like this kid.
He's constantly moving and finding the open spot, he can straight up shoot the ball, and he's the off the ball guard that I think would fit well with what we're building. We would just need a PG with stout D.
He's very undersized and it shows even at this level. When ever he's down low, he's getting pushed around and giving up good position.

Spoiler: Monk would have to guard PGs as he's woefully unprepared to do anything else at this point due to size and strength.

So you probably mean a PG/wing that can guard multiple positions.

That works.
Simmons handeling the primary ball handeling duties, monking playing off ball.
Simmons guarding the 3, monk guarding the 1 and maybe KCP guarding the 2?

[Slizeezyc]

Monk is having a really good game so far. I really like this kid.
He's constantly moving and finding the open spot, he can straight up shoot the ball, and he's the off the ball guard that I think would fit well with what we're building. We would just need a PG with stout D.
He's very undersized and it shows even at this level. When ever he's down low, he's getting pushed around and giving up good position.

Spoiler: Monk would have to guard PGs as he's woefully unprepared to do anything else at this point due to size and strength.

So you probably mean a PG/wing that can guard multiple positions.

That works.
Simmons handeling the primary ball handeling duties, monking playing off ball.
Simmons guarding the 3, monk guarding the 1 and maybe KCP guarding the 2?

KCP is the pipe dreams of all pipe dreams, but yeah I think that would be the general idea from a roster construction standpoint.

[Vince5693]

Spoiler: Monk would have to guard PGs as he's woefully unprepared to do anything else at this point due to size and strength.

So you probably mean a PG/wing that can guard multiple positions.

That works.
Simmons handeling the primary ball handeling duties, monking playing off ball.
Simmons guarding the 3, monk guarding the 1 and maybe KCP guarding the 2?

KCP is the pipe dreams of all pipe dreams, but yeah I think that would be the general idea from a roster construction standpoint.

If not, I think Covington would do just fine

[PLO]

Interesting discussion, made me think of how I would rank these players: my top tier is (in no order) Jackson, Fultz, Markkanen, 2nd tier would be DSJ and Isaac, and probably Ball if we tab him purely as a SG, if not I'd drop him a rung. 3rd would be Monk, Ntilikina, next level down would be Fox, Tatum, Giles. If we get a player from my first or second tiers and one from the 3rd, I would be ecstatic about our draft.

[dkj5061]

It blows my mind that Josh Jackson is now shooting essentially the same percentage from 3 as Jonathan Isaac. I realize Isaac's shot and shooting percentage are much more translatable to the NBA right away, but it just shows how insane this Jackson hot streak has been. He looks so special.

[eagereyez]

It blows my mind that Josh Jackson is now shooting essentially the same percentage from 3 as Jonathan Isaac. I realize Isaac's shot and shooting percentage are much more translatable to the NBA right away, but it just shows how insane this Jackson hot streak has been. He looks so special.

College 3P% alone is a poor indicator of shooting ability. Nylon Calculus ran an article about this, and they came up with their own formula to project NBA 3P% based on college stats. Here's what they projected for some of the top prospects, based on stats from a couple weeks ago:



http://counting-the-baskets.typepad.com/my-blog/2014/09/prediction-are-hard-especially-about-three-point-shooting.html

Their formula correctly predicted the 3P% for Booker, Russell, Winslow, and Looney.

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/05/25/projecting-draft-prospects-three-point-percentages/

[PhilasFinest]

It blows my mind that Josh Jackson is now shooting essentially the same percentage from 3 as Jonathan Isaac. I realize Isaac's shot and shooting percentage are much more translatable to the NBA right away, but it just shows how insane this Jackson hot streak has been. He looks so special.

College 3P% alone is a poor indicator of shooting ability. Nylon Calculus ran an article about this, and they came up with their own formula to project NBA 3P% based on college stats. Here's what they projected for some of the top prospects, based on stats from a couple weeks ago:



http://counting-the-baskets.typepad.com/my-blog/2014/09/prediction-are-hard-especially-about-three-point-shooting.html

Their formula correctly predicted the 3P% for Booker, Russell, Winslow, and Looney.

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/05/25/projecting-draft-prospects-three-point-percentages/

Yea this was a really good write up by them. I often quote it on how FT% correlates with actual shooting ability.

[PhilasFinest]

Watch on YouTube

could be a nice catch and shoot guy, with elite D

Meh. I guess id be ok with him depending on where we were picking in the draft (outside top 9-10) but if that is who we come away with, I will be pretty underwhelmed.

IDK, every time I watch him I just come away unimpressed. I understand he has good measurable's for a "point guard", but He seems like more of a combo guard/ shooting guard where his measurements become less impressive. The shot seems good, and the whole off-ball catch and shoot hypothetically seems like a good fit with Simmons.....but he also seems to lack elite quickness,athelticism and creating ability. If he's just running around shooting assisted shots off screens, maybe he can be good but I personally don't see him breaking down defenders and scoring at a high level in the NBA.

[HotelVitale]

am I the only one who sees a Dirk Nowitzki-type of player in Markkanen?

No you are not

What do you see that's Dirk-like about LM? Does the comparison go beyond 'tall white guy with a great spot-up?' Dirk was a killer isolation player--that's what allowed him to be a great player--and LM has none of that now. Not saying he couldn't develop it but it likely won't look anything like Dirk's.

For comparison, remember that Ryan Anderson is a tall shooter, and he was only good in the NBA once he developed a sweet turn-around game off sceens and curls (at his best he's like Rip Hamilton but from 3 pt range). Markkanen could be better than Anderson, my point is just that being tall and shooting well doesn't make you Dirk or even Ryan Anderson. Ask Steve Novak (who admittedly sucked at pretty much everything else).

[janmagn]

am I the only one who sees a Dirk Nowitzki-type of player in Markkanen?

No you are not

What do you see that's Dirk-like about LM? Does the comparison go beyond 'tall white guy with a great spot-up?' Dirk was a killer isolation player--that's what allowed him to be a great player--and LM has none of that now. Not saying he couldn't develop it but it likely won't look anything like Dirk's.

For comparison, remember that Ryan Anderson is a tall shooter, and he was only good in the NBA once he developed a sweet turn-around game off sceens and curls (at his best he's like Rip Hamilton but from 3 pt range). Markkanen could be better than Anderson, my point is just that being tall and shooting well doesn't make you Dirk or even Ryan Anderson. Ask Steve Novak (who admittedly sucked at pretty much everything else).

Lauri can handle the ball pretty well, for me a underrated athlete, also a great pull-up guy for someone 7ft.

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[shawn_hemp]

am I the only one who sees a Dirk Nowitzki-type of player in Markkanen?

No you are not

What do you see that's Dirk-like about LM? Does the comparison go beyond 'tall white guy with a great spot-up?' Dirk was a killer isolation player--that's what allowed him to be a great player--and LM has none of that now. Not saying he couldn't develop it but it likely won't look anything like Dirk's.

For comparison, remember that Ryan Anderson is a tall shooter, and he was only good in the NBA once he developed a sweet turn-around game off sceens and curls (at his best he's like Rip Hamilton but from 3 pt range). Markkanen could be better than Anderson, my point is just that being tall and shooting well doesn't make you Dirk or even Ryan Anderson. Ask Steve Novak (who admittedly sucked at pretty much everything else).

I actually did compare Markkanen to Ryan Anderson earlier as well.

Dirk could drive to the basket and shoot off the dribble a lot better than Lauri is showing, but it's not like Lauri is bad at it.

I think he will be closer to Ryan Anderson than Dirk, but his shot mechanics are just as smooth as Dirk's. Lauri almost takes a slight fade away with every shot, plus he is 7 ft tall which makes it really hard to block. Even contesting it doesn't seem to really make a difference. And he makes a lot of shots from NBA range, this isn't just a great college shooter.

I think they are planning to play Ben Simmons at PF anyway so I'd be highly surprised if they drafted Lauri but he is someone I will be watching next year for sure

[LloydFree]

Watch on YouTube

could be a nice catch and shoot guy, with elite D

Meh. I guess id be ok with him depending on where we were picking in the draft (outside top 9-10) but if that is who we come away with, I will be pretty underwhelmed.

IDK, every time I watch him I just come away unimpressed. I understand he has good measurable's for a "point guard", but He seems like more of a combo guard/ shooting guard where his measurements become less impressive. The shot seems good, and the whole off-ball catch and shoot hypothetically seems like a good fit with Simmons.....but he also seems to lack elite quickness,athelticism and creating ability. If he's just running around shooting assisted shots off screens, maybe he can be good but I personally don't see him breaking down defenders and scoring at a high level in the NBA.

Unimpressive is about the best description I can give. I would be so disappointed if this is who the 76ers came away with in this upcoming draft. This is a product of good packaging by smart representation. He's not a PG. He's a guy who is too small to fake SF, too unathletic to be considered a good SG prospect, but has a good enough handle to be packaged as a big PG. I want to say it's another Dante Exum situation, but I think that's too complimentary. Exum, though he had a mediocre handle and passing instincts, at least had exceptional quickness. I don't see what Fran N. does, that is exceptional.

[PhilasFinest]

No you are not

What do you see that's Dirk-like about LM? Does the comparison go beyond 'tall white guy with a great spot-up?' Dirk was a killer isolation player--that's what allowed him to be a great player--and LM has none of that now. Not saying he couldn't develop it but it likely won't look anything like Dirk's.

For comparison, remember that Ryan Anderson is a tall shooter, and he was only good in the NBA once he developed a sweet turn-around game off sceens and curls (at his best he's like Rip Hamilton but from 3 pt range). Markkanen could be better than Anderson, my point is just that being tall and shooting well doesn't make you Dirk or even Ryan Anderson. Ask Steve Novak (who admittedly sucked at pretty much everything else).

Lauri can handle the ball pretty well, for me a underrated athlete, also a great pull-up guy for someone 7ft.

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He is also a pretty horrendous defender. I can see the allure in possibly having 2 7 footers on the floor, complimenting each other and spacing the floor,but on defense I think he will struggle in the NBA. He doesn't protect the rim or generate steals.This kid is not Kristaps Porzingis. Id much rather get a guard/wing prospect if possible. Maybe if we are picking like 10th and he is there and the BPA, but just like Ntilikina....I would be pretty underwhelmed if we came away with LM as our pick in this draft currently. Id rather have Saric starting at the 4 spot or Ben Simmons.

[Slizeezyc]

What do you see that's Dirk-like about LM? Does the comparison go beyond 'tall white guy with a great spot-up?' Dirk was a killer isolation player--that's what allowed him to be a great player--and LM has none of that now. Not saying he couldn't develop it but it likely won't look anything like Dirk's.

For comparison, remember that Ryan Anderson is a tall shooter, and he was only good in the NBA once he developed a sweet turn-around game off sceens and curls (at his best he's like Rip Hamilton but from 3 pt range). Markkanen could be better than Anderson, my point is just that being tall and shooting well doesn't make you Dirk or even Ryan Anderson. Ask Steve Novak (who admittedly sucked at pretty much everything else).

Lauri can handle the ball pretty well, for me a underrated athlete, also a great pull-up guy for someone 7ft.

Lähetetty minun LG-H440n laitteesta Tapatalkilla

He is also a pretty horrendous defender. I can see the allure in possibly having 2 7 footers on the floor, complimenting each other and spacing the floor,but on defense I think he will struggle in the NBA. He doesn't protect the rim or generate steals.This kid is not Kristaps Porzingis. Id much rather get a guard/wing prospect if possible. Maybe if we are picking like 10th and he is there and the BPA, but just like Ntilikina....I would be pretty underwhelmed if we came away with LM as our pick in this draft currently. Id rather have Saric starting at the 4 spot or Ben Simmons.

At the same time, Sixers would be a good spot for a Lauri-type in that he doesn't need to play center or handle a big load on defense. He can't play in every situation either way, but he's someone who can be a very useful role player next to an Embiid or Noel if the small-ball 4 isn't cooking too much.

I think Lauri/Ball/Monk all need the Sixers in one way or the other. All three can be successful without the Sixers, but with Simmons and Embiid, all three of those guys would be able to just do what they're good at and hope they figure out the other stuff later.

Also nobody should undersell Lauri as a shooter. He's a freak shooter.

He can shoot off the bounce; he can shoot without much space; I've even seen him even be the ball handler in pick and roll and just pull off that.

As a shooting 7-footer, nobody compares to him as a 19-year-old prospect at this stage maybe ever in the NBA Draft. You could maybe project others to be "great" shooters down the line, but Lauri has results, projection and the age all in one package with the shooting. It's pretty much unrivaled.