Luka Doncic

[Bob8]

If someone is saying, not you, Doncic is not in Ntilikina's league and is the same prospect as Kurucs, that's trolling for me. They're both older than Doncic, Kurucs is not even playing for the Barcelona first team and Ntilikina has a minor role in his French club. And we all know what Doncic is doing and what stats he has. And we know have difficult and rare is that in Euroleague. Not only for 17 years old kid, there's no other player under 20 who has important minutes or role in Euroleague. But like I said, I don't want to participate in that kind of discussions, with no arguments and double standards. There won't be problems with me anymore.

and to me...saying Doncic is a better NBA prospect than Ntilikina is trolling. But I'm not extremely biased either way. I'm just going by the eye test and how I project players. I honestly believe the Donicic hype is completely out of control. Way too much emotion in some of these responses when people don't agree with the narrative that he's the next and greatest thing. I hear the same from Fultz fanboys. Since none of these players are on my Celtics I reserve being a fanboy until they get drafted. Not sure why people are so invested in high school or college players. Donic is just a taller Kennard albeit with higher potential because of that height and potential to add another 2 inches. Just don't get it what all the fuss is about and calling others trolls for not believing the hype.

You can't understand hype about Doncic, because you don't understand Europe and Euroleague. In Europe high school kids don't play in school league, there's no U18 games on television, there's almost no article about young players. Public don't know almost nothing about young players before they hit 20,21 years and start to get some minutes in theirs team. And even then, they don't get much attention. If you read sports newspapers, first 3-5 pages are about football, basketball shares attention with, handball, volleyball, cycling...or even skiing, depending on what part of Europe you are. In France the second most popular sport, after football, is Judo. And because of all this, there is normally no hype about young basketball players. The only exception in last 20 years was Rubio. Why? He broke all records young kid possible can and was bought by Barcelona, what is incredible for a young player. Rubio didn't turn to be great player, but not that bad either. And now everyone try to compare Doncic to Rubio, because Doncic has broken Rubios records. They don't look to similar to me, but if someone says, Doncic is bigger Rubio with a good shot, that doesn't sound to bad to me.

Let's turn some attention to Euroleague. Euroleague is far the best competition in Europe. There play only 16 best teams from Europe. There are no easy games. http://www.euroleague.net/competition/teams. And if you look closely to Euroleague teams rosters, you will see there are very few young players in the teams and even fewer young players who get some playing time. Doncic is the only one under 20 years. And only other who is young and get good minutes is Zizic, 20 years old, and we all know where he is going this year.

You have one thing right, Doncic is a high school kid, but he's playing in Euroleague. High school kids don't get playing time in Euroleague, they don't even seat on bench. Look to Kurucs case. Ntilikina is playing in the club which will probably never play in this new Euroleague format. And is highly unlikely any of his teammates will ever play in a big Euroleague club. High school kids don't get Euroleague round MVP awards, they're not Euroleague games MVP in almost every second game. High school kids don't play for theirs country national teams. Fans of Real Madrid don't normally think, high school kids are best players of Real Madrid. Real Madrid don't give multi million contract to high school kids. High school kids don't have this stats, http://www.euroleaguebasketball.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=005929&seasoncode=E2016 and don't have one of the best stats per 40 minutes in Euroleague. And if you watch Doncic live, he's even better than stats show. Why? Because he made things happen, his teammates look better when he's in court. And because of all that, we have this hype about him. To much? Maybe, but like I said, this is only second hype in Europe in last 20 years, and that should tell you, something special has to be happening.

We don't know how good he will eventually become and he will surely have some bad games and some difficult periods of time in his near future, but the possibilities are good. My only question to you is, did you ever watch him play? not only highlights on youtube.

[Kolkmania]

I want to point a fact out. Many people are doubting about Doncic's ceiling. I always ask for giving him the benefit of the doubt. Why? let me show you a good example.

Tennis. I know it is not the same sport but let me explain... A 17 y.o. Rafael Nadal beat Roger Federer (world's number one back then) 6-3, 6-3 in Miami's third round. Many people said: "wow, look at that kid..." Some other said then: "but he looks like a man already. He can't improve much more. Gasquet (his generation rival) is better, he has more shots, look at that one handed backhand. Nadal is as strong as any other pro already, he is physically mature, he can't get much stronger. He is close to his ceiling". Then he improved. And he got stronger and became the strongest ever and one of the best players in history, no doubt about it. Why did people have that attitude? It was just too good to be true, it was hard to believe.

I am not saying Doncic will be one of the best in history. But why couldn't Doncic develop like that? Let's give him the benefit of the doubt. The case is the same as Nadal's. We had never seen something like that.

But this applies for players like LeBron James, who was a man among boys at that age. Doncic has a more skill-based and less physically dominant approach to the game right?

[XTraderXL]

I want to point a fact out. Many people are doubting about Doncic's ceiling. I always ask for giving him the benefit of the doubt. Why? let me show you a good example.

Tennis. I know it is not the same sport but let me explain... A 17 y.o. Rafael Nadal beat Roger Federer (world's number one back then) 6-3, 6-3 in Miami's third round. Many people said: "wow, look at that kid..." Some other said then: "but he looks like a man already. He can't improve much more. Gasquet (his generation rival) is better, he has more shots, look at that one handed backhand. Nadal is as strong as any other pro already, he is physically mature, he can't get much stronger. He is close to his ceiling". Then he improved. And he got stronger and became the strongest ever and one of the best players in history, no doubt about it. Why did people have that attitude? It was just too good to be true, it was hard to believe.

I am not saying Doncic will be one of the best in history. But why couldn't Doncic develop like that? Let's give him the benefit of the doubt. The case is the same as Nadal's. We had never seen something like that.

But this applies for players like LeBron James, who was a man among boys at that age. Doncic has a more skill-based and less physically dominant approach to the game right?

Doncics whole offensive game is based on his skill, at least on Euroleague level. Thats because he is not physically developed enough, contrary to what some people here would want you to believe.When he was playing in youth tournaments 2 years ago, he used his physical ability and took Real to a U18 EL title, won the MVP while being 2 years younger than the rest of the kids. Now imagine what would happen this year if he played in those tournaments. He would dominate so much, it wouldnt even be funny. And those other teams arent just some bad teams, they are full of the best U18 players in the world (USA excluded).

US posters here compare Doncic to players in NCAA where guys are playing against much lower level of competition than Luka is. I think they would quickly change their opinion if he was playing in a lower level league, where he would look more explosive, faster and overall more dominant, like the NCAA guys do. His BBIQ is so high, he will have no problem playing in the NBA and once he figures his NBA game out, he will be great. When he came to Real senior team, the transition was so smooth you could barely notice it. His game hasnt changed one bit if you compare it to U18, the only difference is that now he is not the #1 offensive option (yet) and even that will change next season.

[XTraderXL]

Just read an article that over 30 NBA scouts are going to be in Vitoria this weekend to see Luka and some other prospects. Spanish Cup competition is starting today and Real will most likely play 3 games in 4 days. I am sure Doncic will get the minutes and show what he is made of.

[JPF]

Now we are at Ntilikina comparisons.
Seriously people... great thing that Slovenia produced some more NBA players, since otherwised he might get compared to Primož Brezec due to nationality.

10 years ago, I was a big draft follower, watched tons of video of Podkolzine, Kosta Perović, Andriuskevicius, Ilić and other euro's people already forgot about. One thing I learned was it takes a whole lot of time to follow all those players and make a realistic observation about them. Following all those NCAA players is a 50hours/week job and it still isn't easy to get a realistc grip. I tried to do that to a much smaller extent, just to get some idea about some comparisons, untill realising those are futile. Following both euro and NCAA? Basicaly noone does that. People living off the draft included, even if for some of those their knowledge and experience enable them to get a good grip on a situation within 20-30 minutes while focusing on an individual player. And that's for a reason. The inability to follow them all in detail partly contributed to some of the most noticable busts in the past, along with the inexplicable euro big man frenzy.
Whenever someone will actually post you a list placing an euro among the NCAA players and he isn't a proffesional scout, dismiss it entirely as that opinion counts about as much as my opinion on the nuclear physics does. Sure I got one, but I honestly doubt it's worth sharing.

There are two major reasons, while PG's ussualy don't get minutes (let alone make it) at the age of 18 on top european level:
1. Can't cope with the competition physicaly
2. Can't read the game at that pace, getting overwhelmed by it

Dončič solves no.1 with his size (not body strenght -> typical 1st sight assumption), while as far as no.2 he is actualy really good at it, that's why people are as full of hype. Being a great 3point shooter always helps calming coaches down for keeping you in the game as well (that's oftenly the key to getting minutes at this level for those kids, as sad as it sound, and it shows with the euro PG production as far as NBA goes). Ntilikina so far has issues with no.2, while Dončič doesn't get pushed around that easily due to his sole weight difference.
Ball handling? in a wider sense he is damn more reliable than either Ntilikina currently playing 2 levels lower competition (although decent) or Rubio was at Dončič's age
5,7 APG with 1,6 TO, within 22 MPG in last 10 euroleague games (4 and 1,7 overall), 3,56 is a damn good ASS/TO ratio considering how the assists are counted over here, season overall 2,43 still puts him on 11th place in euroleague

Do note euro assist are counted differently. Real keeps playing through him (also note: that isn't ussual in eurolegue) so he keeps on getting those screens and posessions to create. You can either take that as a stat-padding or as something unprecendented that a leading team in europe, which in comparison to NCAA or NBA is a control-freak coaches dream, is running their offense through a 17 years old. I am watching Luka since he was 13 but if someone would predict that to happen even just a year ago, I'd call him an idiot without hesitation.

Lack of flashy crossovers equals bad ballhandling or lacking the scoring instincts are just a matter of an unawareness about how big of a quality gap we are actually talking at various euro levels. Those Spaniards that watched him in junior stages would easily agree with it. Luka actualy has the tendency to overpush it, however at this huge transition it's impossible to showcase it without turning the ball over repeatedly.


If you really want to talk about Dončič's weaknesses, for god's sake don't talk about ballhandling, athleticism, first step, even size being an issue with 6'8 perimeter player (!?!) or compare him with a "could develop into a defensive juggernaught Frank Ntilikina", you've got 1 notable issue noone talks about, that's his actuall NBA position.

He won't be playing PG in NBA with wider court and more ISO, sure as hell. On SG he get's somewhat underused with his size and SG's role is getting somehow cemented into something Dončič isn't really about. As soon as he'll transfer to SF (unless we're talking 3,4 years from now) his actual body strenght will be exposed and sceptics will finaly have something obvious to rage about. One of his biggest strenghts as of now, running the pick and roll from the top court, takes a somewhat atypical set of teamates on court to repeatedly run that through SF as effectively. I don't think I have to point out adapting to an individual player are rare cases only few players are worth of, Luka got himself into a really suitable situation in Real Madrid, could get hurt easily in some systems though. He could end up with simply being great at things his team won't be needing from him and only good at the things he is expected to do. Wouldn't be the first or the last player to get in that cage.
Luka is currently playing at a completely different position than he'll eventually play. Some might take that lightly, but being a tweener isn't all about the height only.

Another issue with Dončič that would make a lot of sense is that Luka hasn't hit the wall yet. All players do, except for "the greats". His actuall NBA potential will be more clear at that point.


I've had many more weaknesses on stock for Luka during the last few years, 1st schooting mechanics, 2nd feet speed, pushing it with overly flashy passes, ballhogging, predictability in penetrations, transfer to senior basketball, let alone euroleague level... apart from feet quickness that isn't as much of an issue anymore as it was, he got me on every single doubt, even excelling beyond the vet level in some of them by now.


Comparing currently 20th best performance index player in euroleague, actually 3rd best per 40 minutes (accompanied with mostly big man in that stat sheet)... at the age of freaking 17... with Ntilikina is like comparing sex to masturbation. Or like raging about Thon Maker's potential over what Nikola Jokić already brings to the table. And I personaly like Ntilikina. And admitingly hypeing Dončič, since there actually is more to hype here than with any other euro perimeter player in the last 10-15 years.
If I have to go all in on it, against half of the forum, just as in Porzingis case, so be it...

[UcanUwill]

Comparing currently 20th best performance index player in euroleague, actually 3rd best per 40 minutes (accompanied with mostly big man in that stat sheet)... at the age of freaking 17... with Ntilikina is like comparing sex to masturbation. Or like raging about Thon Maker's potential over what Nikola Jokić already brings to the table. And I personaly like Ntilikina. And admitingly hypeing Dončič, since there actually is more to hype here than with any other euro perimeter player in the last 10-15 years.
If I have to go all in on it, against half of the forum, just as in Porzingis case, so be it...

I get what you are saying, but there is one fundamental difference in your examples. Nikola Jokic alreay playing like a star IN the NBA. There is zero doubt anymore, he can play. Doncic still plays in the Euroleague, and no matter how good Euroleague is, its still not the NBA. Being Euroleague star doesn't guarantee you NBA success, look at Nemanja Bjelica or Nikola Mirotic.

Few years ago, before they all hit NBA, we would have said, oh, Nikola Mirotic is much better than Rudy Gobert, Mirotic is Real Madrid star, yet Gobert has a smaller role on average French club. Look how that turned out. Basketball skills doesn't translate linearly, its way more complicated than that.

[JPF]

Comparing currently 20th best performance index player in euroleague, actually 3rd best per 40 minutes (accompanied with mostly big man in that stat sheet)... at the age of freaking 17... with Ntilikina is like comparing sex to masturbation. Or like raging about Thon Maker's potential over what Nikola Jokić already brings to the table. And I personaly like Ntilikina. And admitingly hypeing Dončič, since there actually is more to hype here than with any other euro perimeter player in the last 10-15 years.
If I have to go all in on it, against half of the forum, just as in Porzingis case, so be it...

I get what you are saying, but there is one fundamental difference in your examples. Nikola Jokic alreay playing like a star IN the NBA. There is zero doubt anymore, he can play. Doncic still plays in the Euroleague, and no matter how good Euroleague is, its still not the NBA. Being Euroleague star doesn't guarantee you NBA success, look at Nemanja Bjelica or Nikola Mirotic.

Few years ago, before they all hit NBA, we would have said, oh, Nikola Mirotic is much better than Rudy Gobert, Mirotic is Real Madrid star, yet Gobert has a smaller role on average French club. Look how that turned out. Basketball skills doesn't translate linearly, its way more complicated than that.

Definately. It's complicated, especialy perimeter players, since there aren't as many in NBA and it's definately easy to make comparisons with Jokić now that he made it.
Each player has to be looked at individualy, position which I've mentioned above and how their game molds into most of NBA's philosophies plays a big part. Mirotić and Bjelica are good examples. One is a decent player, but with limited skills, never meant to be a star while another one is a late boomer that was screeming of a tweener-ism before he entered the league. The bball philosophies between NBA and europe differ to the extent europe is a much more tweener friendly area and that's exactly my problem with Dončič.
There are also opposite examples, such as f.e. Varejao which played noticably better in NBA than he did in europe, Tony Parker struggled a lot in international basketball etc - but all those have some logic behind it, just as saying that Duncan would be european all time great by far if he never played in NBA but europe instead and Dwight Howard wouldn't really come close to it (and that's an arguement a lot of NBA fans would reject). Some decent NBA players are also killing their national team since they are not int.game suited.


Players that played great in europe, rarely become complete busts in NBA and if they do, there is an obvious reason for it, with one NBA team giving them a shot nevertheless. There are guys that don't have the game that would be transferable on the adequate level such as Bjelica, some like De Colo or Spanoulis had their outburst years after their NBA tour, but performance level from euroleague still does translate to a large degree. Performance, not numbers. Sometimes I got a feeling even to a larger degree than with a tranfer of players from NCAA.
Teodošić might be another case like that, due to the fact he won't be able to guard Ish Smith and alikes on the wider NBA court, I doubt his court awareness will make up for that.


Dončič would be burned on PG in NBA in the long term. No hard phylosophy behind it, just a mere fact. With smaller court, taller PG's come handy, especialy with the advantage they've got overseeing the court in NBA that's more of a liability than an advantage. As for SF we have yet to see how he'll respond to it and what team he lands on. That's his biggest weakness as far as the NBA draft goes. He is definately promising to become an incredible player for euro-standards. If he manages the transfer to NBA SF well, stays healthy and doesn't hit some big wall in his development, than yeah, he is very likely a top3 pick, depending on the draft class.

[reanimator]

But this applies for players like LeBron James, who was a man among boys at that age. Doncic has a more skill-based and less physically dominant approach to the game right?

Doncic can't dominate men physically, obviously, but he is definitely more physically mature than his peers which helps him be effective against grown men.

[reanimator]

US posters here compare Doncic to players in NCAA where guys are playing against much lower level of competition than Luka is. I think they would quickly change their opinion if he was playing in a lower level league, where he would look more explosive, faster and overall more dominant, like the NCAA guys do.

He would look stronger and would be highly effective with his skillset but I have my doubts he would look more explosive or faster, especially against the best Power 5 teams.

[reanimator]

Ball handling? in a wider sense he is damn more reliable than either Ntilikina currently playing 2 levels lower competition (although decent) or Rubio was at Dončič's age

Lack of flashy crossovers equals bad ballhandling or lacking the scoring instincts are just a matter of an unawareness about how big of a quality gap we are actually talking at various euro levels. Those Spaniards that watched him in junior stages would easily agree with it. Luka actualy has the tendency to overpush it, however at this huge transition it's impossible to showcase it without turning the ball over repeatedly.

If you really want to talk about Dončič's weaknesses, for god's sake don't talk about ballhandling, athleticism, first step, even size being an issue with 6'8 perimeter player (!?!) or compare him with a "could develop into a defensive juggernaught Frank Ntilikina", you've got 1 notable issue noone talks about, that's his actuall NBA position.

Doncic is a reliable ballhandler but that has nothing to do with creativity. If you think he is a scorer in the NBA then its a legitimate concern. If he doesn't show an arsenal of crossovers and stop/go at the Euro level then how is it likely at the highest level?

You essentially want people not to talk about legitimate concerns if you are claiming he is a top 3 pick and franchise player capable of being a go-to scorer.

[sisibilio]

wrote:
I guess he will be a superstar since the numbers are just that good, but the eye test is really hard to believe

No one knows if he´s going to be a superstar or not.

What we know is that he´s better than any european player was at his age since Petrovic: Pau, Marc, Dirk, Porzinguis, Jokic, Anteteokoumpo, Parker....

P.D: A highlights video I have just found:

Watch on YouTube

Not even Petrovic or Sabonis were this good before turning 18, although Sabas was of course an otherwordly prospect.

[jrob23]

wrote:
I guess he will be a superstar since the numbers are just that good, but the eye test is really hard to believe

No one knows if he´s going to be a superstar or not.

What we know is that he´s better than any european player was at his age since Petrovic: Pau, Marc, Dirk, Porzinguis, Jokic, Anteteokoumpo, Parker....

P.D: A highlights video I have just found:

Watch on YouTube

Not even Petrovic or Sabonis were this good before turning 18, although Sabas was of course an otherwordly prospect.

and that's the problem. Nobody is denying he's a nice player and maybe even the best at his age...in Europe. How he translates to the NBA is the issue. Those in your camp believe he'll carry over his physical/skill advantage. I on the other hand don't see it. Almost none of the things I see in highlights are plays I can see him making on a regular basis in the NBA. He looks like an eventual #3 or maybe #2 option at most to me. I'm guessing you all believe he'll be a #1. We'll just have to wait and see.

[UcanUwill]

Real Madrid played today. How did he do? Anyone watched the game or has stats?

[Bob8]

Real Madrid played today. How did he do? Anyone watched the game or has stats?

they're losing by 10 at half time.

http://acb.com/jv/partido.php?c=574287

[Johnny Firpo]

[and that's the problem. Nobody is denying he's a nice player and maybe even the best at his age...in Europe. How he translates to the NBA is the issue. Those in your camp believe he'll carry over his physical/skill advantage. I on the other hand don't see it. Almost none of the things I see in highlights are plays I can see him making on a regular basis in the NBA. He looks like an eventual #3 or maybe #2 option at most to me. I'm guessing you all believe he'll be a #1. We'll just have to wait and see.

He is very likely the best 17-year-old basketball player in the world currently. But of course that still doesn't necessarily mean he will be an otherworldly NBA player, but I do think he has a good chance. The way I see it, a lot of people who raise their question marks about his athleticism or ball handling, think of him as a point guard, which is a mistake.

He will likely be a playmaking small forward in the NBA, and I don't think he will have too much problems at that position from an athleticism or ball-handling standpoint. Gallo can give you 18-20 points in the NBA on any given night, scoring at a very efficient level, and I see Doncic as a much better athlete, and of course a much more talented and more versatile player.

Another thing, you could mention many other good players and a bunch of all-time greats who are/were supremely skilled, and not necessarily very athletic, although I see Doncic as a good, but not special athlete. I already mentioned those players in this thread. Anyway, Doncic is a unique, high floor, high ceiling prospect because of his skillset, there is no doubt about this. Does this mean he will be an All-Star or a superstar? Of course not, but I don't see any real limitations that would stop him, if he can stay healthy, and adapts mentally.

That's the most important thing, his mental strength. That's what makes a big difference in the NBA. You see from time to time that players like Waiters could be stars, but they don't have the mental makeup that would make them consistent.

[Bob8]

Real Madrid played today. How did he do? Anyone watched the game or has stats?

they're losing by 10 at half time.

http://acb.com/jv/partido.php?c=574287

Overtime.

[UcanUwill]

Real Madrid played today. How did he do? Anyone watched the game or has stats?

they're losing by 10 at half time.

http://acb.com/jv/partido.php?c=574287

Overtime.

Yeah, I caught the last 6 minutes of the 4th quarter. Insane game, Morobanc (or what ever that team called) choking big time, they had the game.

[UcanUwill]

Maybe its that low camera angle, or just a midget opponent, but Doncic looks huge in this game. If it was my first time seeing him, and you told me he was 6'10, I would have believed you.

[Bob8]

Real Madrid played today. How did he do? Anyone watched the game or has stats?

they're losing by 10 at half time.

http://acb.com/jv/partido.php?c=574287

Overtime.

He played almost whole second half and overtime. Obviously coach has full trust in him. Can't say he had a great game, but saying that, he was only 3 assists shy of triple double (12 pts,10 rbt, 7 assists), and that maybe tells everything we have to know about him.

Laso will have to use Draper more in next games. If they come in Final, they will have to play 3 games in 4 days and Llull and Doncic can't play that kind of minutes everyday.

[Bob8]

Maybe its that low camera angle, or just a midget opponent, but Doncic looks huge in this game. If it was my first time seeing him, and you told me he was 6'10, I would have believed you.

He looks bigger then it was at the start of the season.