From Zach Lowe Today...

[fatlever]

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/18699588/zach-lowe-10-things-like-featuring-charlotte-hornets-nba

10 things I like and don't like
1. The Hornets

Everything folks worried about after Charlotte turned down Boston's Godfather offer for the Frank Kaminsky pick has come to bear. The Hornets are 7-19 since just before Christmas, and they have one of the bleakest long-term outlooks in the league. That hurts to say.

The moment they traded Noah Vonleh for Nic Batum, the Hornets trapped themselves in a dilemma: Either let Batum walk, or pay him close to the max just as the cap would skyrocket -- lifting max deals with it. You could justify the deal. Batum is a very good player in his prime, and Charlotte is not a destination that could bank on luring anyone better.

But it's clear Batum is miscast as a second option next to the dogged and always-improving Kemba Walker. Batum is shooting a career-worst 44 percent on 2s, and an ugly 35 percent out of the pick-and-roll -- with a ghastly turnover rate on the play. Batum has coughed up the ball on 26.5 percent of his pick-and-rolls that have ended Charlotte possessions; among 150 guys who have run at least 50 of those suckers, only five have worse turnover rates, per Synergy.

You cannot give him the ball and expect him to get a bucket, and holy hell, do the Hornets need a bucket-getter.

Only about 12 percent of Batum's shots have come in the restricted area, the lowest mark of his career, per Basketball-Reference. He averages just 2.3 drives per game. Only 26 of the 86 guys logging at least 30 minutes per game record fewer drives -- and all but six of those 26 are big men.

Batum is a gifted all-around player -- a triple-double threat. But the Hornets need more. On too many nights, Walker is their only source of oxygen -- the only guy who can break his man down, get into the lane, and create something. Defenses happily switch across every other position, confident Batum, Kaminsky, Marvin Williams, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist won't do any damage against smaller players.

Everyone around Walker has plateaued or declined. Williams' 3-point shooting is down after a career year. The MKG leap hasn't happened; smart teams hide plodding power forwards on him, stick quicker wings on Williams, and switch all of Charlotte's buzzing Williams-centric screening action.

Charlotte compensated early in the season with a heap of free throws, but that well has dried up a bit.

In the bigger picture, every move Charlotte has made over the past three years has screamed: PLEASE BASKETBALL GODS, LET US WIN 45 GAMES! That's meant turning down four picks, including one of Boston's Brooklyn picks, to draft Kaminsky; going all-in on Batum; flipping last year's No. 22 pick for Marco Belinelli; and most recently, swapping two backup centers on short-term deals for one -- Miles Plumlee -- carrying a long-term eight-figure salary.

Charlotte could be capped out through 2019. That's hard to do. We all know the defense for the Belinelli swap: picks in the 20s typically return very little, and Belinelli is a proven rotation player. But he's a proven backup who's not moving the needle for a so-so team. He's not Thaddeus Young -- a proven starter for whom Indiana swapped the No. 20 pick in the same draft.

And for a team with so few long-term building blocks, a 25 percent chance at someone who might matter in five years -- and serve the first four of them on a cheapo rookie contract -- is more valuable than a veteran with a 100 percent chance of being a serviceable reserve today.

Plumlee is a nice backup center. So is Kaminsky.

Things will get better. The Hornets really miss Cody Zeller. He's their Patrick Patterson -- a middling stats jack-of-many-trades who makes life easier for everyone around him with vicious screens and relentless rim-running. But a 24-32 team counting on Cody Zeller as a savior is in a dark, dark place.

Kaminsky will be a different player when his 3-point shot comes around. Steve Clifford is a great coach. Rich Cho and Chad Buchanan, the top dogs in the front office, are smart dudes who will nail a draft pick in the middle of the first round at some point in the next few years.

In the meantime, Charlotte should resist the temptation to trade another future pick for a 30-something quick fix like Lou Williams. Search out smaller moves, try to rally for the No. 8 spot, and take a swing in the lottery if you don't pull it off.

[fatlever]

Nailed It

[Liver_Pooty]

Capped out through 2019 makes me nauseous

[JDR720]

Zach for gm

[fatlever]

The most depressing of the entire depressing part

The Hornets are 7-19 since just before Christmas, and they have one of the bleakest long-term outlooks in the league. That hurts to say.

Batum has coughed up the ball on 26.5 percent of his pick-and-rolls that have ended Charlotte possessions; among 150 guys who have run at least 50 of those suckers, only five have worse turnover rates, per Synergy.

holy hell, do the Hornets need a bucket-getter.

Only about 12 percent of Batum's shots have come in the restricted area, the lowest mark of his career, Only 26 of the 86 guys logging at least 30 minutes per game record fewer drives -- and all but six of those 26 are big men.

Everyone around Walker has plateaued or declined.

In the bigger picture, every move Charlotte has made over the past three years has screamed: PLEASE BASKETBALL GODS, LET US WIN 45 GAMES!

swapping two backup centers on short-term deals for one -- Miles Plumlee -- carrying a long-term eight-figure salary.

Charlotte could be capped out through 2019. That's hard to do.

Belinelli is a proven rotation player. But he's a proven backup who's not moving the needle for a so-so team. And for a team with so few long-term building blocks, a 25 percent chance at someone who might matter in five years -- and serve the first four of them on a cheapo rookie contract -- is more valuable than a veteran with a 100 percent chance of being a serviceable reserve today.

[predators]

Its kind of depressing that we went from a capped out 8th seed to a younger capped out 8th seed.

[Braggins]

Its kind of depressing that we went from a capped out 8th seed to a younger capped out 8th seed.

Yep, I've been thinking this exactly for a while this season. We blew things up and endured a pretty brutal (but admittedly short) tank job, and yet we've basically found ourselves in the same position we were in before we blew it up, albeit with a younger core.

[mrknowitall215]

That Zach Lowe article spelled "Fire Cho"

[-Ian-]

This is frigging depressing.

[fatlever]

That Zach Lowe article spelled "Fire Cho"

As mentioned in "Fire Cho" thread, the problems with the front office and lack of direction is equally attributed to Jordan and Clifford. Firing Cho does not solve any problems if the next GM is under the same pressures to "win 45 games" each year.

[Eoghan]

He's right about everything but "Steve Clifford is a great coach."

[Rich4114]

That Zach Lowe article spelled "Fire Cho"

As mentioned in "Fire Cho" thread, the problems with the front office and lack of direction is equally attributed to Jordan and Clifford. Firing Cho does not solve any problems if the next GM is under the same pressures to "win 45 games" each year.

This. Jordan is impatient and it's part of why we are in the position we are in. I don't blame the coach for that. The coach is always supposed to win and Clifford will push for things that gets him wins now as he should. What we need is discipline and the ability to make long term smart decisions even if it sacrifices short term success.

This franchise needs something to turn it around. I would also like to see if they can get out of the Batum deal in favor of cap space or a guy who is able to score and won't turn the all over so damn much. His triple double threat is nice but it's not what we need the most.

Someone also needs to work with MKG and make him more of an offensive threat. For him it's about confidence and aggressiveness. He typically starts games out scoring and making shots but then completely disappears into the 2nd quarter and beyond. He has the physical tools to be an offensive threat but he has to be able to hit threes and jumpers for the rest to work. He also needs to stop clogging the paint because it's hurting Kemba's ability to drive.

Outside of that, out front court is an absolutely wreck. Marvin Williams looks more like the Marvin Williams we all knew before last year. He sounds like a great guy and excellent teammate but you have to also be able to play basketball well if you're getting $12m per year. As for Frank, he's sloppy and awkward. He has his games but he has no confidence in his shot and doesn't seem to handle pressure well. He cannot finish at the rim or create high % shots against smaller guys. He's a decent bench player I guess but I would sell on him now while teams think he has potential before we get to 2019 and he's still exactly the same.

[countryboi]

man I am really sick of everyone rallying around Bostons magically picks. everything else i can agree with this team is capped out and in dire need of another ball handling scorer.

[chellis]

Nailed it.

[yosemiteben]

In the bigger picture, every move Charlotte has made over the past three years has screamed: PLEASE BASKETBALL GODS, LET US WIN 45 GAMES!

Like signing short term rental deals for Sessions and Hibbert and not having ever traded a future pick? This feels a bit disingenuous.

In the meantime, Charlotte should resist the temptation to trade another future pick for a 30-something quick fix like Lou Williams. Search out smaller moves, try to rally for the No. 8 spot, and take a swing in the lottery if you don't pull it off.

Completely agree with this (except with the "another" since we've never traded a future 1st under Cho), and it feels like what we are doing. If we trade a future 1st, do it for a youngish PG that projects to be a great fit and with deal certainty, not a guy on the down side of his career that is only locked up through next season (potential candidates - Elfrid Payton, Mudiay, BKnight, Reggie Jackson, Tyus Jones, etc.).

[euphorbus]

The most depressing of the entire depressing part

holy hell, do the Hornets need a bucket-getter.

swapping two backup centers on short-term deals for one -- Miles Plumlee -- carrying a long-term eight-figure salary.

Mr. Cho really screwed up in not getting Greg Monroe, who can score and fill the Al Jefferson role on this team, and instead landing Mild Plumlee. The Bucks have been trying to dump Monroe for a long time...

[316Hornets]

You cannot give him the ball and expect him to get a bucket, and holy hell, do the Hornets need a bucket-getter.

Charlotte should resist the temptation to trade another future pick for a 30-something quick fix like Lou Williams.

What? It sounds like just what Charlotte needs to do unless they plan to tank the rest of this season. Not saying trade away a first, just make it work somehow with what little assets we have.

[Bassman]

Excellent points and dead on. Unfortunately it reinforces how futile our hopes are for any real advancement within the next 3 to 5 years. Seriously, think about it. We're stuck with mediocre or average players AND capped out for the next two years. MJ will not support a tank, and this staff misses more than hits on draft picks. So, what will change that will propel this team and franchise into contending for any title?

Sorry, but I guess I am convinced we have no capacity or will to make the right moves or bold moves necessary to take big steps forward. My great concern in our offseason moves was that it did not move the needle forward. We just retained good but not great players at a high cost, yet lost several key bench players that helped us reach the playoffs. Last year's team was a unique moment, but I doubt they could get much further than where they finished if everyone came back.

So....the Hornets will be resigned to a back marker team, hovering just below or above the playoff line, and wasting the best years of Kemba Walker.

[Braggins]

In the bigger picture, every move Charlotte has made over the past three years has screamed: PLEASE BASKETBALL GODS, LET US WIN 45 GAMES!

Like signing short term rental deals for Sessions and Hibbert and not having ever traded a future pick? This feels a bit disingenuous.

In the meantime, Charlotte should resist the temptation to trade another future pick for a 30-something quick fix like Lou Williams. Search out smaller moves, try to rally for the No. 8 spot, and take a swing in the lottery if you don't pull it off.

Completely agree with this (except with the "another" since we've never traded a future 1st under Cho), and it feels like what we are doing. If we trade a future 1st, do it for a youngish PG that projects to be a great fit and with deal certainty, not a guy on the down side of his career that is only locked up through next season (potential candidates - Elfrid Payton, Mudiay, BKnight, Reggie Jackson, Tyus Jones, etc.).

Whats the point of making a distinction between trading a future 1st and trading one right before the draft?

[yosemiteben]

In the bigger picture, every move Charlotte has made over the past three years has screamed: PLEASE BASKETBALL GODS, LET US WIN 45 GAMES!

Like signing short term rental deals for Sessions and Hibbert and not having ever traded a future pick? This feels a bit disingenuous.

In the meantime, Charlotte should resist the temptation to trade another future pick for a 30-something quick fix like Lou Williams. Search out smaller moves, try to rally for the No. 8 spot, and take a swing in the lottery if you don't pull it off.

Completely agree with this (except with the "another" since we've never traded a future 1st under Cho), and it feels like what we are doing. If we trade a future 1st, do it for a youngish PG that projects to be a great fit and with deal certainty, not a guy on the down side of his career that is only locked up through next season (potential candidates - Elfrid Payton, Mudiay, BKnight, Reggie Jackson, Tyus Jones, etc.).

Whats the point of making a distinction between trading a future 1st and trading one right before the draft?

Because you don't know where a future pick will land in the draft order.

ETA: And you won't have had time to fully vet the available prospects at your draft spot.