Poll/Discussion: Would you trade Middleton for the Nets Pick?

[LuessiT]

You trade Middleton for a pick and you set the Bucks timeline back 2-3 years and run the risk he doesn't pan out.

I don't think the Bucks are built to handle a setback like that.

Trading Jabari for the Nets pick would be a very different discussion though.

That's the whole idea behind the trade imo. We should try to set our timeline back after Jabari's injury if our goal is to build a championship teamso this sort of trade is exactly what we should do. I don't like the value that much though.

[EastSideBucksFan]

You trade Middleton for a pick and you set the Bucks timeline back 2-3 years and run the risk he doesn't pan out.

I don't think the Bucks are built to handle a setback like that.

Trading Jabari for the Nets pick would be a very different discussion though.

How far did this past off season and Jabari's latest knee injury set back the timeline? Just curious as to what you think.

I feel like we've been set back 2 years already.

Jabari injury has set Bucks back 2 years.

If you set back the Bucks again, you could barely be coming out of the rebuild by the time Giannis next extension talks are up.

Not saying we need to recklessly make win now moves, but I'm not in favor of putting Giannis thru another 2-3 year rebuild.

[EastSideBucksFan]

You trade Middleton for a pick and you set the Bucks timeline back 2-3 years and run the risk he doesn't pan out.

I don't think the Bucks are built to handle a setback like that.

Trading Jabari for the Nets pick would be a very different discussion though.

That's the whole idea behind the trade imo. We should try to set our timeline back after Jabari's injury if our goal is to build a championship teamso this sort of trade is exactly what we should do. I don't like the value that much though.

I'm not 100% familiar with all the top talent in the draft, but it doesn't feel like there's a Chris Paul or Anthony Davis sitting at the top there. Otherwise, this would be a very different discussion.

I'd rather keep Middleton as he's the perfect glue guy for us, not to mention Top 5 SG

[humanrefutation]

You know where I got that from? I literally went through the last ten drafts and did some math. I didn't pull it out of my ass.

If you only included 10 drafts, it's definitely pulled straight out of your ass. That's not enough to get any kind of realistic estimate. The margin of error in a sample that small is ridiculously high.

That's a total crock of ****.

10 drafts is absolutely a reasonable sample size when you're evaluating risk. I was even fairly generous in my approach - I evaluated the Top 5 which brought in some studs like Cousins, Porzingis, Westbrook, Love, Horford, and Conley that wouldn't have even been included in your Top 3 sample size, didn't include last season because of recency bias, and was very generous on some guys with injury or other issues.

You want to go back further than that? Fine, but then you aren't accounting for the changes to the league and style of play. But go ahead, big boy. I'm fairly certain you won't find a tremendous difference even if you went back 25 drafts.

[LuessiT]

You trade Middleton for a pick and you set the Bucks timeline back 2-3 years and run the risk he doesn't pan out.

I don't think the Bucks are built to handle a setback like that.

Trading Jabari for the Nets pick would be a very different discussion though.

That's the whole idea behind the trade imo. We should try to set our timeline back after Jabari's injury if our goal is to build a championship teamso this sort of trade is exactly what we should do. I don't like the value that much though.

I'm not 100% familiar with all the top talent in the draft, but it doesn't feel like there's a Chris Paul or Anthony Davis sitting at the top there. Otherwise, this would be a very different discussion.

I'd rather keep Middleton as he's the perfect glue guy for us, not to mention Top 5 SG

I think Fultz is the CP3 or AD on the top and then there are like 4 Irvings right behind.

[Nowak008]

You trade Middleton for a pick and you set the Bucks timeline back 2-3 years and run the risk he doesn't pan out.

I don't think the Bucks are built to handle a setback like that.

Trading Jabari for the Nets pick would be a very different discussion though.

I think you underestimate what an impact PG can do for a team even as a first or second year player. Remember TJ Ford?

[crkone]

You trade Middleton for a pick and you set the Bucks timeline back 2-3 years and run the risk he doesn't pan out.

I don't think the Bucks are built to handle a setback like that.

Trading Jabari for the Nets pick would be a very different discussion though.

I think you underestimate what an impact PG can do for a team even as a first or second year player. Remember TJ Ford?

I remember double nickel!

[ackypoo]

as much as it pains me to say it, yes. especially considering his recent injury.

i absolutely love middleton as a player, but if we could get 2 picks in the top 7 or 8 in this draft wed be in a much better position going forward.

[EastSideBucksFan]

You trade Middleton for a pick and you set the Bucks timeline back 2-3 years and run the risk he doesn't pan out.

I don't think the Bucks are built to handle a setback like that.

Trading Jabari for the Nets pick would be a very different discussion though.

I think you underestimate what an impact PG can do for a team even as a first or second year player. Remember TJ Ford?

Yes, but there's a huge gap from adding that talent to our current team and sacrificing Middleton for him.

I do agree the right PG can make a big impact

[Prez]

Without a doubt, but Boston wouldn't. If you can pair Giannis with Fultz, you do it.

I mean even if the Nets stay #1 seed, that's just a 25% chance of getting the first pick. I'd probably do it, but it's not as clear cut as a Middleton for Fultz swap.

Fair enough. I'd probably still do it for DSJ or Jackson at 2 or 3 tbh, I think both of them have superstar upside that I just wouldn't be able to pass up. All of this is subject to change though as we get closer to the draft and get a better read on these guys.

[worthlessBucks]

Do you have faith that Hammond and company will be creative enough or smart enough to assemble a talented roster around Giannis/Middleton using the typical few resources we'll have at our disposal? That's the real question and the answer is likely no.

Nobody would want to push the timeline back, but that Jabari injury was rather crippling to the ceiling we all were envisioning. Probably looking at losing Moose and adding another late lotto pick. Going to need some massive organic improvement (coaching, players) or great trades that will consist of our crap for good pieces to really move a needle again.

I would table the concept until next deadline to see how the team looks and what we do in the offseason. Wouldn't receive as nearly as good of a pick (if Boston would even do that now anyways), but things will be clearer for us at that time. Just a wild guess (not really, using the franchise's history), we will be in the same spot we are always in.

[LedZepp007]

Yes


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[LuessiT]

Without a doubt, but Boston wouldn't. If you can pair Giannis with Fultz, you do it.

I mean even if the Nets stay #1 seed, that's just a 25% chance of getting the first pick. I'd probably do it, but it's not as clear cut as a Middleton for Fultz swap.

Fair enough. I'd still do it for DSJ or Jackson if I'm being honest. I think both of them have superstar upside that I just wouldn't be able to pass up.

I see the superstar upside in DSJ, but I'm worried about his attitude (even though NC State is horribly coached, probably even worse than us). I'd probably do it for Jackson too, though I don't see the true superstar unless he gets his shot going.

[Jez2983]

So are we reproducing LeBron/Irving with that trade? And does a young LeBron and an even younger Irving have the ability to win stuff?

Great question. Really don't know.

[JayMKE]

Naw, we need to compete ASAP with Giannis not aim 3-4 years down the road.

[coolhandluke121]

You know where I got that from? I literally went through the last ten drafts and did some math. I didn't pull it out of my ass.

If you only included 10 drafts, it's definitely pulled straight out of your ass. That's not enough to get any kind of realistic estimate. The margin of error in a sample that small is ridiculously high.

That's a total crock of ****.

10 drafts is absolutely a reasonable sample size when you're evaluating risk. I was even fairly generous in my approach - I evaluated the Top 5 which brought in some studs like Cousins, Porzingis, Westbrook, Love, Horford, and Conley that wouldn't have even been included in your Top 3 sample size, didn't include last season because of recency bias, and was very generous on some guys with injury or other issues.

You want to go back further than that? Fine, but then you aren't accounting for the changes to the league and style of play. But go ahead, big boy. I'm fairly certain you won't find a tremendous difference even if you went back 25 drafts.

I already did when this stupid argument came up last time. I listed every single good player going back over 30 years, and the success rate is close to 50%. Furthermore, the arguments about younger picks making it harder in the last 10 years proved patently false because many superstars were under 20 from '95 - '05.

There are 10-year periods of great drafts and bad ones. It goes in cycles. Stop over-complicating it. 10 years is only 30 years. If everyone here flipped a coin 30 times, many of them would deviate significantly from the expected value of 15 heads, and some would get close to 70% of one or the other. That doesn't mean they're using a weighted coin. That means you need a lot more than 30 flips of the coin in order for the law of large numbers to kick in.

Changes to the league and style of play?? That's your theory for why drafting is harder? Man, this keeps getting worse. Just stop. The league has always been changing. Drafts have always fluctuated. The people doing the drafting are aware of these changes and are taking them into account. Drafting is not any more of a crap-shoot than it ever was.

[MrPerfect1]

I think you have to Vote NO. SG is the hardest to fill position at the league and shooting is at a premium. Shooters also age better than most other positions. You definitely do not trade an All-Star caliber Shooting Guard for a pick that could easily be only #4 overall.

I'd be willing to reconsider my position once we find out how high the pick will actually be and have worked out some of the players to get a better sense of their potential.

[DingleJerry]

I think you have to Vote NO. SG is the hardest to fill position at the league and shooting is at a premium. Shooters also age better than most other positions. You definitely do not trade an All-Star caliber Shooting Guard for a pick that could easily be only #4 overall.

I'd be willing to reconsider my position once we find out how high the pick will actually be and have worked out some of the players to get a better sense of their potential.

that's not going to happen. The point here is for them to have Middleton for the playoffs this year. And if they find out the pick is for sure #1 they're not giving it up, what makes it available is the uncertainty of it.

[ajb905]

Tough question as I love Khris, but voted yes.

The expected value from a top 4 pick ranging from #1 - 50% chance at all star to #4 a 33% chance. Also you have a good draft with Fultz and Ball looking like above average #1 pick talents and a nearly 50% of getting one w/ the Nets pick, then with the talent at 3 and 4 being a good consolation prize. Then the added bonus is the Bucks gets a higher pick with their own selection.

This team is so young so I don't worry about pushing the clock back. And while there is bust value from any draft pick. Let's not pretend Middleton has no risk

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/17/freelance-friday-expected-value-in-the-nba-draft/

[PANDEMONEUM]

if the Bucks decide to make a big move(s),
id prefer to move everyone else besides Midds (and G, thats understood)

have we tried getting even a late 1st for Monroe, Henson, etc

in a trade, 2 1st round picks in 2017, and a future 1st, could move us into the top 6 spots.

Thon, 2018 1st unprotected, 2020 1st unprotected.....what does that get us ?
any of pho, lal, orl, 76ers, minn, dall do it ?

2017 drafted PG, Middleton, Giannis, Center
Brogdon, Jabari, Center
Vaughn

clear out all that stupid $ and in 2 years we have 20$M+ to get a quality FA to round off the roster and do damage in the playoffs.

losing Middleton to add a high pick doesnt create a gain.