John Collins

[Goldbum]

I'm super intrigued by this guy but can't find much in depth scouting reports/break downs of his game. What are your thoughts? The measurables, attitude and stats all seam to be on point, and his PER is bonkers.
Is he an early 20's type player or could he move into the lotto? Any objective opinions would be greatly appreciated. Thanx.

[treefi]

He could sneak into the lotto.

[Cammo101]

He's this year's Marquise Chriss.

[jrob23]

I'm super intrigued by this guy but can't find much in depth scouting reports/break downs of his game. What are your thoughts? The measurables, attitude and stats all seam to be on point, and his PER is bonkers.
Is he an early 20's type player or could he move into the lotto? Any objective opinions would be greatly appreciated. Thanx.

somewhere in the 20s in a crazy deep draft that just has better prospects above him. It'd take a pretty useless G.M. to take him high. He's more of an old school PF that isn't coveted as much in today's NBA. He's also older and not a stretch 4 which works against him as well.

[RipCity71252]

Just got done watching him vs Duke after seeing the box score and it was a typical John Collins game. His very efficient albeit unspectacular skill set was on full display.

He took advantage of Duke's inability to guard the pnr which had them resorting to switching every single one involving him in the 2nd half. This gave him distinct mismatches inside, which I'll say Wake did not take big enough advantage of. He also did work on the boards, doing a good job using his strong base to carve out position.

Showed nice touch on his righty hook and quick right shoulder turnaround jumper, but looked bad if he was forced to do anything else. Which brings me back to the point I made a couple days ago. A guy his size better be uber skilled if he has a chance to be a post up threat in non-advantage situations and he's just not there right now. He's also a guy you can crowd if he decides to turn and face. He wants to get into his jumper, but looks uncomfortable if he's forced to put into on the ground, where he's often unsure of himself and prone to being swallowed up trying to finish through contact and length.

Right now he's a guy that if he has the strength advantage that allows him get into his go-to moves, ha can kill you. This is going to make him a tough guy to handle if you decide to switch with him as the screener and even if he doesn't get the ball he should be able to have an effect on the offensive boards although his lack of length might limit him a little here.

His jump this year gives you hope that he can develop further, but right now he seems to me to have a most likely ceiling of a back-up 4 who's above average on the boards, but offers limited offensive versatility and below average defense.

If you're a team starved for playable players inside I can see him going in the middle/late first round (although I don't see the value there), but there's no way I touch him in the top 10.

[Goldbum]

^^^Thanks!

[oddwolfhooligan]

I'm super intrigued by this guy but can't find much in depth scouting reports/break downs of his game. What are your thoughts? The measurables, attitude and stats all seam to be on point, and his PER is bonkers.
Is he an early 20's type player or could he move into the lotto? Any objective opinions would be greatly appreciated. Thanx.

somewhere in the 20s in a crazy deep draft that just has better prospects above him. It'd take a pretty useless G.M. to take him high. He's more of an old school PF that isn't coveted as much in today's NBA. He's also older and not a stretch 4 which works against him as well.

It's a little early, imo, to decide that this dude will never be more than an old school 4. A lot of the ingredients for him to turn into a more traditional PF are all there for him. He just needs to work with a development staff that can help him put it all together. Also, not sure how you can reasonably claim that he's an "older" prospect. He doesn't even turn 20 until next September.

I personally like Collins a lot. Usually, when a player goes from being completely unheralded to dominating the NCAA, they have some kind of flaw(or flaws) that will clearly hold them back as NBA players. With Collins, I see zero fatal flaws. From a physical standpoint, he grades out pretty well across the board. He's 6'10, has a nice standing reach, good coordination, he moves well, he has soft hands, etc. Skills-wise, he's multi-faceted and does a lot of different things that can help his team win. As a scorer, he shows good instincts moving off the ball, he has decent footwork and a soft touch, he draws a ton of fouls, and he's shown that he can be a competent shooter out to 18 feet. He may be a little raw as a scorer, but those qualities give him a good foundation to build on. Additionally, he's a high level rebounder, both on offense and defense, he has a good motor, and he doesn't turn the ball over a ton despite his high usage.

My biggest concerns lie with his abilities as a defender and passer. From a physical and motor standpoint, Collins has many of the tools to be a plus defender. However, in the few games I've watched, I've yet to see someone who thinks the game at a high level on defense and that's a tough deficit to erase. However, his good physical profile and motor are enough to suggest that he can turn into a decent defender. As a passer, I'm just not seeing it. I get that his situation on Wake Forest isn't doing him any favors, but I've seen zero evidence to suggest that he has any potential as a passing big. He clearly works really hard though so I won't say that it's impossible for him to develop this part of his game.

As of now, I feel pretty confident that Collins ends up being a top 14 player from this draft and that he's absolutely worthy of lottery consideration. Worst case scenario, he still ends up being a guy that does a couple things to help you win and nothing that totally kills your team. Best case scenario, you've got a double double machine and a legitimate two way player. And considering Collins has already proven that he can work hard and make vast improvements on a year-to-year basis, he has more potential than most to reach that best case scenario.

[Ruzious]

I'm super intrigued by this guy but can't find much in depth scouting reports/break downs of his game. What are your thoughts? The measurables, attitude and stats all seam to be on point, and his PER is bonkers.
Is he an early 20's type player or could he move into the lotto? Any objective opinions would be greatly appreciated. Thanx.

somewhere in the 20s in a crazy deep draft that just has better prospects above him. It'd take a pretty useless G.M. to take him high. He's more of an old school PF that isn't coveted as much in today's NBA. He's also older and not a stretch 4 which works against him as well.

He's 19 and younger than a lot of the freshman prospects. People got to realize that just because he hasn't done certain things, that doesn't mean he won't be able to do those things down the line. He's been a completely unstoppable inside scorer throughout this season, so there's been no reason to display great passing skills or 18 foot range on his j. If you're coaching him, you want him to keep doin what he's doin. Look at what he can do moreso than what he can't do. He's got a nice little mid-range j - there's no reason he can't expand his range. Even if he doesn't, you have an elite rebounder/inside scorer. Whether or not he goes in the lotto probably goes to his combine measurements - nobody's got any length numbers on him from past puberty that I know of - and how he does in team workouts.

[RipCity71252]

I'm super intrigued by this guy but can't find much in depth scouting reports/break downs of his game. What are your thoughts? The measurables, attitude and stats all seam to be on point, and his PER is bonkers.
Is he an early 20's type player or could he move into the lotto? Any objective opinions would be greatly appreciated. Thanx.

somewhere in the 20s in a crazy deep draft that just has better prospects above him. It'd take a pretty useless G.M. to take him high. He's more of an old school PF that isn't coveted as much in today's NBA. He's also older and not a stretch 4 which works against him as well.

He's 19 and younger than a lot of the freshman prospects. People got to realize that just because he hasn't done certain things, that doesn't mean he won't be able to do those things down the line. He's been a completely unstoppable inside scorer throughout this season, so there's been no reason to display great passing skills or 18 foot range on his j. If you're coaching him, you want him to keep doin what he's doin. Look at what he can do moreso than what he can't do. He's got a nice little mid-range j - there's no reason he can't expand his range. Even if he doesn't, you have an elite rebounder/inside scorer. Whether or not he goes in the lotto probably goes to his combine measurements - nobody's got any length numbers on him from past puberty that I know of - and how he does in team workouts.

I agree with a lot of what your saying although I think you can be pretty confident that his reach will be below average for a PF. People think he has long arms because of his long neck and sloping shoulders so it'll look that way when you see him just standing, but watch him long enough and it's easy to identify his length issues.

I do have questions how far his range will extend out to too. His shot is fluid, but he gets a lot of guide hand into the release and is prone to some really bad misses, but your right that it might be too early to make definitive statements about his skill set.

I'm just not huge in projecting skills that I haven't really seen signs of. I'm of the thought that players feel/IQ/Mentality and skillset don't significantly change past their freshman or sophomore years in college, they just get more efficient at what they do. There are exceptions to every rule, but its the safest way to project college players next level potential imo.

[Ruzious]

Remember that the PF exceptions for standing reach include Draymon Green and Blake Griffin - both at 8'9.

[Goldbum]

Ripcity71252 as a fellow Blazer fan, would you want Collins if he was available at "the Memphis pick"?

[RipCity71252]

Ripcity71252 as a fellow Blazer fan, would you want Collins if he was available at "the Memphis pick"?

I don't like the fit, but I think he has a solid chance to hang in the league as back-up 4 so you could definitely do worse.

I'll be the first to say that I could be completely wrong on John Collins. His production is hard to deny, but we are working with such a small sample and he just doesn't pass the eye test for me.

[RipCity71252]

Remember that the PF exceptions for standing reach include Draymond Green and Blake Griffin - both at 8'9.

I think this is hurting your argument more than helping.

Is there a chance he transitions his game and makes it as a starter as his size?...sure. But as it stands, there's more indications than not that says he's more of a 15 to 20% usage finisher / spot up player w/below average size and defense for his position at the next level.

People will point to his rebounding, but I don't think anybody is saying he'll be well above average for an NBA pf. And when he's forced to become more of a face-up player, play with an nba center, and guard more on the perimeter(which is almost guaranteed to happen) that skill starts looking more and more average.

Undersized, largely back to the basket 4's with low feel #'s just don't work out very often. And if they do, they are back-ups. It's just facts. And like you said, he could break the mold and prove a lot of people wrong, but the cards are stacked against him.

[Ruzious]

Remember that the PF exceptions for standing reach include Draymond Green and Blake Griffin - both at 8'9.

I think this is hurting your argument more than helping.

Is there a chance he transitions his game and makes it as a starter as his size?...sure. But as it stands, there's more indications than not that says he's more of a 15 to 20% usage finisher / spot up player w/below average size and defense for his position at the next level.

People will point to his rebounding, but I don't think anybody is saying he'll be well above average for an NBA pf. And when he's forced to become more of a face-up player, play with an nba center, and guard more on the perimeter(which is almost guaranteed to happen) that skill starts looking more and more average.

Undersized, largely back to the basket 4's with low feel #'s just don't work out very often. And if they do, they are back-ups. It's just facts. And like you said, he could break the mold and prove a lot of people wrong, but the percentages are against him.

I'm not following you. How does it hurt him that 2 of the top PF's in the game have a relatively short standing reach? I'd be surprised if Collins doesn't have a longer reach than they do. The fact is - we're guessing at what his length is, and we'll know later at the combine. It's a fact that a few weeks ago, most mocks like draftexpress.com had him as a 2nd round pick or not even a 2017 draft pick - now draftexpress.com has him at 16 - and they're typical of the internet mocks.

As far as him being below average size, I don't think that's the case in today's small ball era. He's 6'10 and probably close to 240 lbs now, and he's 19 years old. He should eventually be a very strong 245ish. For all we know, he might end up 6'11 at the combine and be able to play some center in the NBA.

I agree that he'll be asked to play more face-up, but players who are great natural scorers like he is tend to evolve their games as needed. Guys like Bernard King and Antawn (sp?) Jamison had no perimeter game in college because they didn't need to - they could score at will inside. In the NBA they developed as great perimeter scorers. Heck, Karl Malone had no jump shot in college and made 50% of his FT's, but he was a great scorer and adjusted. Not saying Collins is on the Mailman level - he isn't, but with great scorers, I don't just assume they won't make adjustments - and Collins is a great scorer - doing things in his 2nd year that Tim Duncan didn't do in 4 years at Wake.

[RipCity71252]

Remember that the PF exceptions for standing reach include Draymond Green and Blake Griffin - both at 8'9.

I think this is hurting your argument more than helping.

Is there a chance he transitions his game and makes it as a starter as his size?...sure. But as it stands, there's more indications than not that says he's more of a 15 to 20% usage finisher / spot up player w/below average size and defense for his position at the next level.

People will point to his rebounding, but I don't think anybody is saying he'll be well above average for an NBA pf. And when he's forced to become more of a face-up player, play with an nba center, and guard more on the perimeter(which is almost guaranteed to happen) that skill starts looking more and more average.

Undersized, largely back to the basket 4's with low feel #'s just don't work out very often. And if they do, they are back-ups. It's just facts. And like you said, he could break the mold and prove a lot of people wrong, but the percentages are against him.

I'm not following you. How does it hurt him that 2 of the top PF's in the game have a relatively short standing reach? I'd be surprised if Collins doesn't have a longer reach than they do. The fact is - we're guessing at what his length is, and we'll know later at the combine. It's a fact that a few weeks ago, most mocks like draftexpress.com had him as a 2nd round pick or not even a 2017 draft pick - now draftexpress.com has him at 16 - and they're typical of the internet mocks.

As far as him being below average size, I don't think that's the case in today's small ball era. He's 6'10 and probably close to 240 lbs now, and he's 19 years old. He should eventually be a very strong 245ish. For all we know, he might end up 6'11 at the combine and be able to play some center in the NBA.

I agree that he'll be asked to play more face-up, but players who are great natural scorers like he is tend to evolve their games as needed. Guys like Bernard King and Antawn (sp?) Jamison had no perimeter game in college because they didn't need to - they could score at will inside. In the NBA they developed as great perimeter scorers. Heck, Karl Malone had no jump shot in college and made 50% of his FT's, but he was a great scorer and adjusted. Not saying Collins is on the Mailman level - he isn't, but with great scorers, I don't just assume they won't make adjustments - and Collins is a great scorer - doing things in his 2nd year that Tim Duncan didn't do in 4 years at Wake.

Comparing him to future hall of famers at a similar size does nothing to convince me whether he specifically has star potential or not. Especially when they displayed distinctly different and more varied skill sets as college players, while also having at least one clear outlier physical tool which Collins does not posses.

I think we are just going to have to agree to disagree on this one, ultimately. The chances of him becoming a star or even a starting caliber player are inherently low, but I think I've made enough of a case that his chances are even lower based on his size and current statistical archetype.

I'll be interested to see how it turns out.

[SirChurros]

I've seen Collins quite a few times this season and I don't get why people are sold on him. I think he's going to be a steal if you get him in the 12-18 range. Very gifted scorer who can do it in a variety of ways. The notion that he's undersized is ridiculous.

[Ruzious]

I think this is hurting your argument more than helping.

Is there a chance he transitions his game and makes it as a starter as his size?...sure. But as it stands, there's more indications than not that says he's more of a 15 to 20% usage finisher / spot up player w/below average size and defense for his position at the next level.

People will point to his rebounding, but I don't think anybody is saying he'll be well above average for an NBA pf. And when he's forced to become more of a face-up player, play with an nba center, and guard more on the perimeter(which is almost guaranteed to happen) that skill starts looking more and more average.

Undersized, largely back to the basket 4's with low feel #'s just don't work out very often. And if they do, they are back-ups. It's just facts. And like you said, he could break the mold and prove a lot of people wrong, but the percentages are against him.

I'm not following you. How does it hurt him that 2 of the top PF's in the game have a relatively short standing reach? I'd be surprised if Collins doesn't have a longer reach than they do. The fact is - we're guessing at what his length is, and we'll know later at the combine. It's a fact that a few weeks ago, most mocks like draftexpress.com had him as a 2nd round pick or not even a 2017 draft pick - now draftexpress.com has him at 16 - and they're typical of the internet mocks.

As far as him being below average size, I don't think that's the case in today's small ball era. He's 6'10 and probably close to 240 lbs now, and he's 19 years old. He should eventually be a very strong 245ish. For all we know, he might end up 6'11 at the combine and be able to play some center in the NBA.

I agree that he'll be asked to play more face-up, but players who are great natural scorers like he is tend to evolve their games as needed. Guys like Bernard King and Antawn (sp?) Jamison had no perimeter game in college because they didn't need to - they could score at will inside. In the NBA they developed as great perimeter scorers. Heck, Karl Malone had no jump shot in college and made 50% of his FT's, but he was a great scorer and adjusted. Not saying Collins is on the Mailman level - he isn't, but with great scorers, I don't just assume they won't make adjustments - and Collins is a great scorer - doing things in his 2nd year that Tim Duncan didn't do in 4 years at Wake.

Comparing him to future hall of famers at a similar size does nothing to convince me whether he specifically has star potential or not. Especially when they displayed distinctly different and more varied skill sets as college players, while also having at least one clear outlier physical tool which Collins does not posses.

I think we are just going to have to agree to disagree on this one, ultimately. The chances of him becoming a star or even a starting caliber player are inherently low, but I think I've made enough of a case that his chances are even lower based on his size and current statistical archetype.

I'll be interested to see how it turns out.

I liked Antawn Jamison despite his poor defensive - but I doubt he makes the HOF.

Yes, fair enough that we will agree to disagree on Collins. That's part of the fun of this - seeing who turns out right. I still need to see the facts on his size and how he does in team workouts before making a final judgement.

[RipCity71252]

Not ideal, but here he is side by side with Ben Lammers (listed at 6' 10" as well).
http://imgur.com/a/gL567

There is no way his reach isn't bad with those body proportions.

[Bobbcats]

I'm betting he'll be good just because every Wake pick in the last couple decades has been a good one except for Aminu.

[Ruzious]

Not ideal, but here he is side by side with Ben Lammers (listed at 6' 10" as well).
http://imgur.com/a/gL567

There is no way his reach isn't bad with those body proportions.

I can't tell a thing from that. Lammers is 2 years older, so he's more developed, and I'm guessing that's from last season - when Collins was 18.