Official Trade Thread - Part XXXII

[nate33]

What's all this chatter about the wizards getting Paul George? If they ask for Otto and a 1st, you have to do it right? I would hate losing Otto, but you just have to do it

Yeah, you have to do it.

A statistical case can be made that Porter is better than George, or at least is likely to become better over the next couple of years as he continues to mature. However, even if that is the case (and I'm not saying it is), you still make this trade for cap reasons. Having a perennial All Star owed just $19.5M a year for the next 2 years is better than paying Otto the max.

He's getting a big raise in the summer of 2018 though. Big six year deal like DeMarcus Cousins is going to get. After that point he'll be making way more than Otto.

As I understand it, the cap is coming down after 2017. A max salary may no longer be as big.

But you make a fair point. If the cap doesn't come down much, then a case can be made that Otto will be cheaper over the next 5 years than George.

[gambitx777]

Yeah, you have to do it.

A statistical case can be made that Porter is better than George, or at least is likely to become better over the next couple of years as he continues to mature. However, even if that is the case (and I'm not saying it is), you still make this trade for cap reasons. Having a perennial All Star owed just $19.5M a year for the next 2 years is better than paying Otto the max.

He's getting a big raise in the summer of 2018 though. Big six year deal like DeMarcus Cousins is going to get. After that point he'll be making way more than Otto.

As I understand it, the cap is coming down after 2017. A max salary may no longer be as big.

But you make a fair point. If the cap doesn't come down much, then a case can be made that Otto will be cheaper over the next 5 years than George.

Plus you don't know how well that leg is going to hold up as the years and miles add up. That was a horrific injury he had, Hes lucky he is still seemingly the same player. But, its 100 % possible that creeps up on him and causes him issues down the line.

[ozthegap]

He's getting a big raise in the summer of 2018 though. Big six year deal like DeMarcus Cousins is going to get. After that point he'll be making way more than Otto.

As I understand it, the cap is coming down after 2017. A max salary may no longer be as big.

But you make a fair point. If the cap doesn't come down much, then a case can be made that Otto will be cheaper over the next 5 years than George.

Plus you don't know how well that leg is going to hold up as the years and miles add up. That was a horrific injury he had, Hes lucky he is still seemingly the same player. But, its 100 % possible that creeps up on him and causes him issues down the line.

Nah breaks in the middle of a bone like that are actually the best type of break. They heal stronger than before. He shouldn't really be affected other than the fear of it happening again

[stevemcqueen1]

Yeah, you have to do it.

A statistical case can be made that Porter is better than George, or at least is likely to become better over the next couple of years as he continues to mature. However, even if that is the case (and I'm not saying it is), you still make this trade for cap reasons. Having a perennial All Star owed just $19.5M a year for the next 2 years is better than paying Otto the max.

He's getting a big raise in the summer of 2018 though. Big six year deal like DeMarcus Cousins is going to get. After that point he'll be making way more than Otto.

As I understand it, the cap is coming down after 2017. A max salary may no longer be as big.

But you make a fair point. If the cap doesn't come down much, then a case can be made that Otto will be cheaper over the next 5 years than George.

There's a lot of conflicting information on the cap projections, but I saw this in December that projected the cap to reach 120 million by 2020:

http://www.si.com/nba/2016/12/20/salary-cap-number-projection-120-million-2020

If that's accurate, then I find it hard to believe the cap will go back down in 2018. If it's to grow by 20 million in three summers, then I think it'll have to steadily climb.

And I think the league's revenue and value is growing at an incredible pace right now. The franchise values have exploded and given that, I'm not sure how the league could justify a cap decrease. But you never know. 2020 is a long ways away.

[gambitx777]

Donald Sloan is playing pretty well in China, I wanted to sign him in the off season. I would not mind him when the china leagues let out.

[J-Ves]

I wonder what a 2018 lotto protected 1st + Nicholson gets us in this market? Lou Will is out of that price range it seems, but I have to believe a upgrade at guard could be had somewhere.

[BurtGummer]

This is the part where we get back to trades. So what you guys think about Oubre for Lou Williams?

The Lakers would laugh Oubre has shown pretty very little since being drafted

I was being sarcastic, the wizards would be the ones laughing at that nonsense.

Jeez, this thread is getting bad

People here sure have a weird unfounded crush on him he's terrible

[bsilver]

Donald Sloan is playing pretty well in China, I wanted to sign him in the off season. I would not mind him when the china leagues let out.

It's hard to judge by China league stats. Jimmer Fredette is averaging 36.
Sloan would be an upgrade from Burke from what I remember of his play.
Since we have so little to offer in trade other than first round picks, I would look toward China and the d league. Unfortunately it looks like the best d league guards have been picked up already. At least these players are in shape, as opposed to someone like Jarret Jack who hasn't played in a long time.

[NatP4]

The Lakers would laugh Oubre has shown pretty very little since being drafted

I was being sarcastic, the wizards would be the ones laughing at that nonsense.

Jeez, this thread is getting bad

People here sure have a weird unfounded crush on him he's terrible

i mean, have you seen the guy?

[payitforward]

We'd probably be .500 under Witt right now. I have no feelings of nostalgia towards him. He was here far too long.

No nostalgia on my part either. But... you don't know what our record would be or even if it would be worse than it is. Nor do I. We can't measure Brooks' influence. Note the following points please:

Wall is at his peak level as a player. Beal has transformed himself. Last year, Oubre was a kid with virtually no high-level organized basketball experience (@700 minutes of college ball). He is a much better player this year.

Of course, one response is that those guys are better because Witt is gone & Brooks is the coach. Then again, Gortat is playing at the same level as last year. Thornton is playing worse than last year. Porter is getting more recognition this year, as you'd expect, but compare his numbers w/ those from last year -- overall no difference (please don't respond w/ a cherrypicked selection of a few).

Brooks hasn't made those guys better, & I definitely don't think Brooks has made Beal better either. He's hitting open shots this year that he missed last year. Ditto Wall

Moreover, Beal/Gortat/Porter have already played almost as many minutes this year (in 55 games) as they did all year last year. Along with Wall, their play is responsible for virtually all our success.

Markieff Morris is playing much better this year than last as well. But, I don't see a lot of difference in his role. Wall's shooting 2 pt attempts a lot better than last year. Is that Brooks' influence. If so, how about this

Spoiler:

He's shooting 3 pointers a lot worse than last year -- & on fewer attempts. How about that? Is that Brooks' influence?

We've also played significantly more at home than on the road, & players put up better numbers at home.

This is not an argument in favor of Randy Wittmann. Not my point. I'm saying something simpler & quite different: there's no data on which to base a real comparison & no way to know how much credit to give him over Wittmann. Sorry.

[payitforward]

We'd probably be .500 under Witt right now. I have no feelings of nostalgia towards him. He was here far too long.

He never should have gotten the HC job. Giving it to him, without interviewing any other candidates, was sheer laziness on the part of Ted and Ernie. He was an awful coach leading an awful staff that stunted the growth of every single one of our young players. If we'd had a real coach from day one of John's career he's an MVP candidate right now and Brad is starting the All Star game and the both of them are pillars of Team USA. **** Ted and Ernie for **** away the first six years of John Wall's career with **** **** ass coaches like Randy.

what? thats a little far, its not randys fault that john brad and otto had injury issues. wasn't his fault that we didn't have a starting power forward last year. I was one of the biggest randy haters out there, but he deserves credit for turning the team into a defensive minded team, changing the culture around here, and leading us to back to back 2nd round appearances.

We won 46 games 2 years ago. Our team is much much better this year -- not worse as AFM says.

I'm not a fan of Randy Wittmann. Not my point. He may have had some modest impact. But our record is better because a bunch of our players are better and those players are playing more minutes. Basketball is not rocket science guys.

[payitforward]

Nivek posted multiple times about how coaching really doesn't play a role in the win loss column. The NBA, more than any other sport, is really about talent. ....

I don't think we're an exception, Nivek is just wrong. ...

You'd think this was just a matter of opinion, & the question was who has the right opinion. Sorry, steve, but no.

There's been a ton of research on this subject. Basically, guys put up the same numbers whichever coach they play for (once you factor out the typical rise>peak>decline pattern of players' careers). That's just fact. It's also fact wins and losses are determined by the numbers players put up (vs those the opposing team's players put up). 100% determined, because they 100% determine the final score.

Of course, there are a few exceptions among coaches. There are a few guys that do seem to get better numbers out of players than those players put up for other coaches. Phil Jackson was one. Popovich is another. But overall, the studies indicate that coaches have very little impact on how their players perform.

I'm sure this will get the usual storm of denial by examples of what this that or the other coach did. Maybe some of them (not many) are significant. Overall, however, opinions don't matter on this subject. It's the same in discussions of which player is better than which other player. Opinion has no role in the matter. The whole of the judgement of fact is in the data, in the numbers.

[payitforward]

Nivek is also wrong about Kelly Oubre. The kid is a stud and trading him for Marcus Morris or Reggie Jackson means we give up the best player in the deal and we're killing Ernie for it in three years.

I'd tell him to defend his position but he's a traitor to this board.
Literally left because he didn't like nate's posts in the politics thread (srs).

What gives you that idea, AFM? Or is it just a wisecrack? Did Kevin PM you that? Did he write it on his blog? Post it at Bulletsforever? Or...?

If none of the above, then please straighten that out, ok?

[gambitx777]

Donald Sloan is playing pretty well in China, I wanted to sign him in the off season. I would not mind him when the china leagues let out.

It's hard to judge by China league stats. Jimmer Fredette is averaging 36.
Sloan would be an upgrade from Burke from what I remember of his play.
Since we have so little to offer in trade other than first round picks, I would look toward China and the d league. Unfortunately it looks like the best d league guards have been picked up already. At least these players are in shape, as opposed to someone like Jarret Jack who hasn't played in a long time.

The thing to look at with china guys are their % number and compare them to what they did in the NBA last time they played and look at minutes played and compare. her getting about 16 more minutes a game in China. FG% is about 3.5 % higher on about 13 more shots per game and hes taking about 3pT percentage is the same but hes shooting about 5 more a game. Hes doing about 6.4 assists a game which is 2 more than he averaged in brooklyn last year. Now hes a starter in china so you could conclude they are probably at a lower level than your average NBA bench player but a little better than D league guys. SO two ways you can take it, Its china it means nothing. Or he is giving similar production regardless of minutes or usage. SO its a pretty good representation of what he is as a player. IDK vet point guard, has EG written all over him and I for one am fine with Donald Sloan coming in and replacing Burke.

[gambitx777]

Last year, Oubre was a kid with virtually no high-level organized basketball experience (@700 minutes of college ball). He is a much better player this year.

Probably the best argument for not trading the kid, he is playing this well and he is that raw still. Like imagine him in 2 years, with positive influence and teaching. And if he keeps getting better at the rate he has improved over last year! Watch out !

[payitforward]

Nivek is also wrong about Kelly Oubre. The kid is a stud and trading him for Marcus Morris or Reggie Jackson means we give up the best player in the deal and we're killing Ernie for it in three years.

I'd tell him to defend his position but he's a traitor to this board.
Literally left because he didn't like nate's posts in the politics thread (srs).

I liked Nivek. We totally disagreed on his method of analysis but it was interesting how often our conclusions were the same. I also like nate. We frequently agree in basketball discussions and I appreciate his analysis. But his politics are anathema to me and I don't blame Nivek for bailing. It's a disconcerting situation for an NBA fan board to have a mod who is openly racist in his politics. But I appreciate free speech and pluralism so I believe there should be space for nate's point of view.

But if most of the board agreed with him, I would probably bail too.

Huh. It's interesting that this came up. I asked AFM for confirmation of this, because he is so often ironic -- the idea of "a traitor to this board," for example, is one I didn't think he'd meant literally the previous times he used the phrase. I hope he'll answer.

It's also -- obviously -- not exactly the right thread for this material. But... it's come up, so I'd better add to it something I've done.

A few days ago, I PM'ed one of the mods (pine) to say that I'd looked at a lot of NBA team boards on RealGM, none of which had anything like the politics thread nate started on this board. No politics, but more importantly no thread full of hate content about Muslims, explicitly racist material (blacks being of inferior intelligence, etc.), and so forth. Not on any NBA team board I found.

I asked that the mods (obviously this would include nate) explicitly discuss whether this one thread (in all its particularity) was appropriate for the Board. I pointed out that there was no shortage of places to talk politics online, & for that matter no shortage of places to spew hatred for particular groups. There's no threat of shutting discussion down, just a question of whether it needs to take place on our front porch.

I don't want to make anybody angry. I don't want to offend nate, whom I get along with just fine in every other thread (even in cases where we disagree). At the same time, if we really did lose Nivek b/c of the thread I certainly do regret that loss. It makes it all the more regrettable that this thread full repulsive material exists here.

Sorry.

[stevemcqueen1]

I asked that the mods (obviously this would include nate) explicitly discuss whether this one thread (in all its particularity) was appropriate for the Board. I pointed out that there was no shortage of places to talk politics online, & for that matter no shortage of places to spew hatred for particular groups. There's no threat of shutting discussion down, just a question of whether it needs to take place on our front porch.

I don't know if it's why Nivek left, though I think I remember seeing Ruzious mention it in passing one time. I think another reason why he may have left is because he started writing for other places. As far as shutting the politics thread down, my vote would be to leave it going. I post on a Redskins forum with tons of active politics threads and those things get contentious and have gotten good members temporary bans, but it's a valuable part of the community. I think it's also hard to define what constitutes hate speech, and if the thread consists of sincere discussion and not trolling, then I believe it should continue. I agree with AFM that we should be able to set political differences aside for participation in the other threads.

I don't know, maybe you're right. If we lost too many posters I'd agree with you that the value of the thread wasn't worth the cost but I don't think that's happened yet.

[nate33]

Porter is getting more recognition this year, as you'd expect, but compare his numbers w/ those from last year -- overall no difference (please don't respond w/ a cherrypicked selection of a few).

Except for a very small downtick in assists, Porter has gotten better at literally everything:

[pineappleheadindc]

I'd tell him to defend his position but he's a traitor to this board.
Literally left because he didn't like nate's posts in the politics thread (srs).

I liked Nivek. We totally disagreed on his method of analysis but it was interesting how often our conclusions were the same. I also like nate. We frequently agree in basketball discussions and I appreciate his analysis. But his politics are anathema to me and I don't blame Nivek for bailing. It's a disconcerting situation for an NBA fan board to have a mod who is openly racist in his politics. But I appreciate free speech and pluralism so I believe there should be space for nate's point of view.

But if most of the board agreed with him, I would probably bail too.

Huh. It's interesting that this came up. I asked AFM for confirmation of this, because he is so often ironic -- the idea of "a traitor to this board," for example, is one I didn't think he'd meant literally the previous times he used the phrase. I hope he'll answer.

It's also -- obviously -- not exactly the right thread for this material. But... it's come up, so I'd better add to it something I've done.

A few days ago, I PM'ed one of the mods (pine) to say that I'd looked at a lot of NBA team boards on RealGM, none of which had anything like the politics thread nate started on this board. No politics, but more importantly no thread full of hate content about Muslims, explicitly racist material (blacks being of inferior intelligence, etc.), and so forth. Not on any NBA team board I found.

I asked that the mods (obviously this would include nate) explicitly discuss whether this one thread (in all its particularity) was appropriate for the Board. I pointed out that there was no shortage of places to talk politics online, & for that matter no shortage of places to spew hatred for particular groups. There's no threat of shutting discussion down, just a question of whether it needs to take place on our front porch.

I don't want to make anybody angry. I don't want to offend nate, whom I get along with just fine in every other thread (even in cases where we disagree). At the same time, if we really did lose Nivek b/c of the thread I certainly do regret that loss. It makes it all the more regrettable that this thread full repulsive material exists here.

Sorry. :(

I posted my answer on the board. Do not hijack the TRADE thread for your own agenda. Consider this your one (very public) warning.

P.S. Since youve gone public let me do the same - I replied to your PM that Nate did not start the politics thread. I told you directly and you recieved my note. Yet you repeat your unfounded allegation above, underlined, yet again. Stop it.

[mhd]

https://sports.yahoo.com/video/woj-report-nba-trade-deadline-025519235.html


Woj (starts are 3:40) says Wiz want a vet wing and are willing to trade a future 1st round pick (even this year) for a vet (even if its a rental). Names mentioned are Lou Williams (Wiz are interested him) & Bogdonovich.