The Science of Aaron Gordon

[VFX]

Did Ibaka help us in any way? Oladipo on the last year of his rookie deal or re-signed to his next deal is worth a hell of a lot more than terrence ross. Did OKC hesitate to extend Dipo? You think they want to trade dipo back to us for ross right now if they could?

Trading youth/assets for non-star vets and signing more vets has caused us to devalue all our remaining assets. AG forced to play out of position, Fournier forced into a role he couldn't handle, Vuc demoted, Elf demoted, Hezonja DNP'd. These guys are all worth less now and for what? We went from being praised for our collection of youth to becoming the joke of the league in one year. Why would you want to make the same mistake?

What vet player you think we'd be getting for AG....?

1. Oladipo hasn't gotten any better. We've seen that team of EP/Dipo/Fournier/AG/Vuc - didn't work. So you don't commit near max to Oladipo. TRoss skillset is differebt than Dipo and way cheaper for 2 years. Their number are similar in minutes.

2. What young assets have we traded other than Harkless who wasn't doing much of anything while here? Tobias is the same mediocre player. Your precious AG has had all the minutes and opportunities ( even to the extent that we changed our roster around to put him in the best position) to be 'the guy' has he risen to the occasion? No.

3. The value of players we draft goes down each year when they don't produce with high playing time. The only player not given minutes or PT is mario who looks awful whenever he does. Unless you like this current team currently why would you keep the players we have rather than trading ? Do you really think they will progress more than they are currently?

I'm not going to throw out hypothetical trades for AG I just laugh at how he always gets the youth pass when people clearly are wearing homer goggles.

You don't want to talk hypotheticals, yet you've already called AG's ceiling at age 21? There are top 10 picks that come in the league older than he is now. He's had all minutes and opportunities? You mean limited playing time and missing half his games his rookie year, still limited time his sophomore year with very low usage (7 fga), and still not cracking 30 mpg his third year while trying to learn a new position that doesn't match his skillset? Yeah, talk about putting him in "best position" to show out, especially with the high volume 10 attempts this year. You know how many times Gordon has taken 15 or more attempts in his career so far? 8 times, average of 22 points on 50% and 8 rebounds in those games. Not saying he could do that on the regular, but we'd definitely be selling low if we traded him right now for the mere fact that we HAVE NOT put him in the best position... we've decreased his value in recent months and it's not because a handful of months have ticked by.

Oladipo didn't improve and yet he's still perceived as better than Ross. Is he 10 million better than Ross... maybe not, but as an asset the only thing that matters is his value to other teams and OKC, a playoff team, clearly didn't mind paying him. Does it even matter to us that Ross is cheaper when the savings go to players like biyombo, green and other overpaid vets? Like you said, we're not signing any big names, so why are you so worried about money? Who's more valuable in a trade right now, Green or Harris? It's not about homer glasses... it's about asset management and maximizing returns. If we had to let harris and dipo go, fine, at least we actually explored what they can do, but what we shouldn't have done was trade them for expiring non-star vets like they were going to right this ship... all it does is lead to diminishing assets while still sucking. We need a star, not more third options and role players.

I agree we need a star and not more role players to start.

Here's the thing, I'm not saying AG has hit his ceiling at 21 . I just personally don't think his ceiling is as crazy high as people on this board tend to believe. There are a number of players picked within his range and lower that have had WAY more success and bigger numbers. AG will honestly never be in a good position to succeed on this roster as it stands. He will continue to get used to losing until we acquire a different team. As far as the rest of your first paragraph - whatever you want to tell yourself....

I'm not going to revisit every trade made under Hennigan to talk about asset management in a thread about the perception of AG.

What I will ask is how you plan on acquiring this star player without trading our assets other teams seem to value? The draft is the only way to land that caliber of player if you aren't willing to give up a player like AG.

If you aren't winning with these so called 'amazing' assets - they are traded. If you hold onto them and they don't produce they are diminishing assets regardless of what you want to tell yourself.

[OrlandO]

1. Oladipo hasn't gotten any better. We've seen that team of EP/Dipo/Fournier/AG/Vuc - didn't work. So you don't commit near max to Oladipo. TRoss skillset is differebt than Dipo and way cheaper for 2 years. Their number are similar in minutes.

2. What young assets have we traded other than Harkless who wasn't doing much of anything while here? Tobias is the same mediocre player. Your precious AG has had all the minutes and opportunities ( even to the extent that we changed our roster around to put him in the best position) to be 'the guy' has he risen to the occasion? No.

3. The value of players we draft goes down each year when they don't produce with high playing time. The only player not given minutes or PT is mario who looks awful whenever he does. Unless you like this current team currently why would you keep the players we have rather than trading ? Do you really think they will progress more than they are currently?

I'm not going to throw out hypothetical trades for AG I just laugh at how he always gets the youth pass when people clearly are wearing homer goggles.

You don't want to talk hypotheticals, yet you've already called AG's ceiling at age 21? There are top 10 picks that come in the league older than he is now. He's had all minutes and opportunities? You mean limited playing time and missing half his games his rookie year, still limited time his sophomore year with very low usage (7 fga), and still not cracking 30 mpg his third year while trying to learn a new position that doesn't match his skillset? Yeah, talk about putting him in "best position" to show out, especially with the high volume 10 attempts this year. You know how many times Gordon has taken 15 or more attempts in his career so far? 8 times, average of 22 points on 50% and 8 rebounds in those games. Not saying he could do that on the regular, but we'd definitely be selling low if we traded him right now for the mere fact that we HAVE NOT put him in the best position... we've decreased his value in recent months and it's not because a handful of months have ticked by.

Oladipo didn't improve and yet he's still perceived as better than Ross. Is he 10 million better than Ross... maybe not, but as an asset the only thing that matters is his value to other teams and OKC, a playoff team, clearly didn't mind paying him. Does it even matter to us that Ross is cheaper when the savings go to players like biyombo, green and other overpaid vets? Like you said, we're not signing any big names, so why are you so worried about money? Who's more valuable in a trade right now, Green or Harris? It's not about homer glasses... it's about asset management and maximizing returns. If we had to let harris and dipo go, fine, at least we actually explored what they can do, but what we shouldn't have done was trade them for expiring non-star vets like they were going to right this ship... all it does is lead to diminishing assets while still sucking. We need a star, not more third options and role players.

I agree we need a star and not more role players to start.

Here's the thing, I'm not saying AG has hit his ceiling at 21 . I just personally don't think his ceiling is as crazy high as people on this board tend to believe. There are a number of players picked within his range and lower that have had WAY more success and bigger numbers. AG will honestly never be in a good position to succeed on this roster as it stands. He will continue to get used to losing until we acquire a different team. As far as the rest of your first paragraph - whatever you want to tell yourself....

I'm not going to revisit every trade made under Hennigan to talk about asset management in a thread about the perception of AG.

What I will ask is how you plan on acquiring this star player without trading our assets other teams seem to value? The draft is the only way to land that caliber of player if you aren't willing to give up a player like AG.

If you aren't winning with these so called 'amazing' assets - they are traded. If you hold onto them and they don't produce they are diminishing assets regardless of what you want to tell yourself.

I didn't say don't give him up... I just wouldn't give him up for a non-star vet like you. It's a waste of a young asset that we haven't even bothered to tap into yet.

[VFX]

You don't want to talk hypotheticals, yet you've already called AG's ceiling at age 21? There are top 10 picks that come in the league older than he is now. He's had all minutes and opportunities? You mean limited playing time and missing half his games his rookie year, still limited time his sophomore year with very low usage (7 fga), and still not cracking 30 mpg his third year while trying to learn a new position that doesn't match his skillset? Yeah, talk about putting him in "best position" to show out, especially with the high volume 10 attempts this year. You know how many times Gordon has taken 15 or more attempts in his career so far? 8 times, average of 22 points on 50% and 8 rebounds in those games. Not saying he could do that on the regular, but we'd definitely be selling low if we traded him right now for the mere fact that we HAVE NOT put him in the best position... we've decreased his value in recent months and it's not because a handful of months have ticked by.

Oladipo didn't improve and yet he's still perceived as better than Ross. Is he 10 million better than Ross... maybe not, but as an asset the only thing that matters is his value to other teams and OKC, a playoff team, clearly didn't mind paying him. Does it even matter to us that Ross is cheaper when the savings go to players like biyombo, green and other overpaid vets? Like you said, we're not signing any big names, so why are you so worried about money? Who's more valuable in a trade right now, Green or Harris? It's not about homer glasses... it's about asset management and maximizing returns. If we had to let harris and dipo go, fine, at least we actually explored what they can do, but what we shouldn't have done was trade them for expiring non-star vets like they were going to right this ship... all it does is lead to diminishing assets while still sucking. We need a star, not more third options and role players.

I agree we need a star and not more role players to start.

Here's the thing, I'm not saying AG has hit his ceiling at 21 . I just personally don't think his ceiling is as crazy high as people on this board tend to believe. There are a number of players picked within his range and lower that have had WAY more success and bigger numbers. AG will honestly never be in a good position to succeed on this roster as it stands. He will continue to get used to losing until we acquire a different team. As far as the rest of your first paragraph - whatever you want to tell yourself....

I'm not going to revisit every trade made under Hennigan to talk about asset management in a thread about the perception of AG.

What I will ask is how you plan on acquiring this star player without trading our assets other teams seem to value? The draft is the only way to land that caliber of player if you aren't willing to give up a player like AG.

If you aren't winning with these so called 'amazing' assets - they are traded. If you hold onto them and they don't produce they are diminishing assets regardless of what you want to tell yourself.

I didn't say don't give him up... I just wouldn't give him up for a non-star vet like you. It's a waste of a young asset that we haven't even bothered to tap into yet.

Show me where I said I would trade AG for a non star vet. I said vet. Aka butler, PG, ect.

[OrlandO]

I agree we need a star and not more role players to start.

Here's the thing, I'm not saying AG has hit his ceiling at 21 . I just personally don't think his ceiling is as crazy high as people on this board tend to believe. There are a number of players picked within his range and lower that have had WAY more success and bigger numbers. AG will honestly never be in a good position to succeed on this roster as it stands. He will continue to get used to losing until we acquire a different team. As far as the rest of your first paragraph - whatever you want to tell yourself....

I'm not going to revisit every trade made under Hennigan to talk about asset management in a thread about the perception of AG.

What I will ask is how you plan on acquiring this star player without trading our assets other teams seem to value? The draft is the only way to land that caliber of player if you aren't willing to give up a player like AG.

If you aren't winning with these so called 'amazing' assets - they are traded. If you hold onto them and they don't produce they are diminishing assets regardless of what you want to tell yourself.

I didn't say don't give him up... I just wouldn't give him up for a non-star vet like you. It's a waste of a young asset that we haven't even bothered to tap into yet.

Show me where I said I would trade AG for a non star vet.

You just spent multiple posts marginalizing him and now you think he can get us a star? Ok man...

[VFX]

I didn't say don't give him up... I just wouldn't give him up for a non-star vet like you. It's a waste of a young asset that we haven't even bothered to tap into yet.

Show me where I said I would trade AG for a non star vet.

You just spent multiple posts marginalizing him and now you think he can get us a star? Ok man...

What I'm saying is his perception of being a good player is there. He's overrated. I've seen him play on this team for years and I'm still not seeing it. Maybe im wrong.

Considering what just netted NOLA cousins I'd say it's possible.

[Def Swami]

Chris Herring wrote this article on February 8, and last night's game reminded me of it.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happened-to-aaron-gordons-dunks/

Casual basketball fans who weren’t aware of the Orlando Magic’s Aaron Gordon became familiar with him when he leaped over a mascot during last year’s slam dunk contest.

But now Gordon, perhaps the best dunker in the league, isn’t dunking nearly as much. And although there isn’t a sure-fire explanation, Orlando’s congested offense may deserve a lot of the blame.

The 21-year-old’s dunk rate — the percentage of his 2-point tries that are slams — is down 25 percent from last season, a surprising drop for a player so young. That a whopping 42 percent of his dunks have come in transition, according to SportVU, which tracks almost everything that happens on the court, suggests that he’s at his dunkiest before his teammates get in the way. His transition dunk rate has made a huge jump from 2014-15 and 2015-16, when 24 percent and 29 percent of his slams, respectively, stemmed from fast-break situations.

Put another way: It’s becoming more and more rare to see Gordon dunk in routine, half-court situations. And simply watching the Magic try to run their offense shows part of the reason why.

Orlando, after hiring ex-Pacers coach Frank Vogel, overhauled its roster hoping that it could zig while most teams in today’s small-ball league have zagged. Despite already having young, talented bigs in Gordon and Nikola Vucevic, the Magic invested heavily in the frontcourt by trading guard Victor Oladipo for Serge Ibaka and then signing center Bismack Biyombo to a four-year, $72 million contract. Vogel, in an offseason interview with ESPN’s Zach Lowe, said he envisioned the sizable club pummeling opponents, much like his Indiana teams did.

But the big-men acquisitions have created a rotational logjam and a logjam in the paint. Opposing defenses have anchored themselves in the paint and built a wall, daring the poor-jump-shooting Magic to spot up from outside. Orlando takes 16 unguarded jumpers from 10 or more feet per night — the sixth-highest number in the league — yet has the fourth-worst effective field-goal rate in those situations.

And even though Ibaka and Vucevic are solid shooters for their respective positions, the little spacing they provide is nullified by the rest of the team’s failure from distance. The Magic’s 33 percent mark from 3-point range is third-worst in the association. (Gordon also contributes to this; he is one of five Orlando rotation players shooting worse than 30 percent from the arc.)

The poor outside shooting, and the wall it allows unfazed defenses to construct in the paint, appears to be a major part of why Gordon hasn’t been able to take flight.

There are other things contributing to Gordon’s dunk decline. The move to small forward has him out on the perimeter considerably more often, meaning that not only is he taking more triples, but he’s also being tasked with getting back on defense, as opposed to hunting the offensive glass for putbacks. And since the preseason, he’s battled a couple of ankle injuries, a tricky ailment for someone who relies so much on his athleticism.

Still, Gordon’s numbers with certain lineups suggest that spacing is his biggest problem. His dunk numbers, while still lower, are a bit more in line with his career percentages when he plays alongside fellow starters Ibaka and Vucevic. He slams home 14 percent of his 2-point attempts when teamed with that duo, according to NBA Wowy, which tracks advanced player and team metrics when certain lineups share the court.

But his rate falls off considerably when flanked by an extra big who doesn’t shoot as well. When he’s on the floor with Biyombo (as much a non-shooter as they come) and Ibaka, for instance, he dunks just 10 percent of the time. The number falls even further, to 7 percent, when sharing the court with Vucevic and Biyombo.

Here’s to hoping that the Magic can find a way to open the lane just a bit so we can finally see Gordon start throwing down some highlight-reel dunks after all-star weekend, too.

I don't think it's a coincidence that we're seeing Gordon dunk a lot more over the last 2 games since moving back to power forward.

I think Vogel also put this conversation to bed last night in the press conference. I think it was a good experiment to try him at small forward and think there are times when he should play the position, but Aaron Gordon and our team is better when he is a power forward.

[Def Swami]

Aaron Gordon pre vs. post all-star break (since becoming full-time PF):
Pre : 11.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.9 apg, 42.8 FG%, 29.2 3FG%, 50.3 TS%, 102 ORTG, 112 DRTG, -4.3
Post: 15.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.8 apg, 57.1 FG%, 25.9 3FG%, 57.1 TS%, 116 ORTG, 112 DRTG, +1.7

I think we've cleared up the SF vs. PF debate.

[Nemesis21]

Aaron Gordon pre vs. post all-star break (since becoming full-time PF):
Pre : 11.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.9 apg, 42.8 FG%, 29.2 3FG%, 50.3 TS%, 102 ORTG, 112 DRTG, -4.3
Post: 15.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.8 apg, 57.1 FG%, 25.9 3FG%, 57.1 TS%, 116 ORTG, 112 DRTG, +1.7

I think we've cleared up the SF vs. PF debate.

I wish the coaching staff left him at PF all season.

[Skin]

Aaron Gordon pre vs. post all-star break (since becoming full-time PF):
Pre : 11.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.9 apg, 42.8 FG%, 29.2 3FG%, 50.3 TS%, 102 ORTG, 112 DRTG, -4.3
Post: 15.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.8 apg, 57.1 FG%, 25.9 3FG%, 57.1 TS%, 116 ORTG, 112 DRTG, +1.7

I think we've cleared up the SF vs. PF debate.

I wish the coaching staff left him at PF all season.

I'm actually happy that the Vogel gave it an honest try. Now we know. Otherwise, there would've been question marks and constant wondering. I always thought he was a combo SF/PF and still see that in him, it's just that he'll start at PF and get majority of his minutes there.

[OrlChamps2030]

I've been liking AG at the 4. He is just so damn explosive and powerful when he can gather and lift off of two feet. You can really see it when he gets offensive boards, lobs, dump offs, and on his second jumps. He really wasn't able to utilize his leaping ability when he was stuck on the perimeter.

I still like his defense on the perimeter though. This is what makes me think Isaac would be such a great fit. He could play a Rashard kind of game on offense and defend the other team's 4 while AG plays a Faried/Griffin kind of game and defends the other team's best perimeter player

[OrlandO]

Aaron Gordon pre vs. post all-star break (since becoming full-time PF):
Pre : 11.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.9 apg, 42.8 FG%, 29.2 3FG%, 50.3 TS%, 102 ORTG, 112 DRTG, -4.3
Post: 15.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.8 apg, 57.1 FG%, 25.9 3FG%, 57.1 TS%, 116 ORTG, 112 DRTG, +1.7

I think we've cleared up the SF vs. PF debate.

Pre: 44 dunks in 56 games
Post: 44 dunks in 19 games

[SOUL]

Not to mention we run more plays towards the basket with Elfrid and him post ASG. He's going to find him if he's jumping near the rim.

[Bensational]

Aaron Gordon pre vs. post all-star break (since becoming full-time PF):
Pre : 11.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.9 apg, 42.8 FG%, 29.2 3FG%, 50.3 TS%, 102 ORTG, 112 DRTG, -4.3
Post: 15.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.8 apg, 57.1 FG%, 25.9 3FG%, 57.1 TS%, 116 ORTG, 112 DRTG, +1.7

I think we've cleared up the SF vs. PF debate.

He's definitely looking a lot better at PF.

I find it annoying that we weren't running any plays like this for him when he was a SF, though. Why wasn't he encouraged to cut more often? We had Ibaka stretching the defense.

If we brought in another hybrid 3/4, like the Harris/Morris combo, I could see him being a swing guy on defense. But he needs to get the 4 matchup on him on offense to be able to work most effectively it seems.