Official Trade Thread - Part XXXII

[bealwithit]

We need a litany of good late first and early second round draft picks to recite whenever we get tempted by the thought of dealing a first for someone like Lou Williams.

- Rudy Gobert - 27th pick
- Draymond Green - 35th
- Montrezl Harrell -32nd
- Jae Crowder - 34th
- Khris Middleton - 39th
- Malcolm Brogdon - 36th
- Jimmy Butler - 30th
- Hassan Whiteside - 33rd
- Clint Capela - 25th
- Willy Hernangomez - 35th
- Taj Gibson - 26th
- DeMarre Carroll - 27th
- Patrick Beverly - 42nd
- Serge Ibaka - 24th
- George Hill - 26th
- DeAndre Jordan - 35th
- Marc Gasol - 48th

Get your patience outta here

BOOMIN OUT IN LINCOLN HEIGHTS LIKE LOU WILL
SIX MAN LIKE LOU WILL
2 GIRLS AND THEY GET ALONG LIKE I'M LOUUUUU


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

Wait a minute, how about a protected 2017 second-round pick, McLellan, House, Ochefu, Burke, Thornton and rights to Juan Carlos Navarro for Portis, Rondo, Mirotic and 2017 and 2018 first-round picks.

This is a great idea! Especially b/c we're going to need those 2 R1 picks to trade for veteran help next year once we deal those other guys for veteran help from expiring guys.

[pcbothwel]

Lowe made some good points but that Toronto series was a couple of years ago. Williams is playing at another level now. He's got career highs across the board. His game is more than just drawing fouls. His TS% is sky high, his PER, ast %, WS/48, BPM, RPM and on/off differential are all up. Its possible guys improve with age. Also he'd help our playoff run no matter what because he'd clearly help in challenging Boston for a 2-seed during the regular season and he would obviously allow Brooks to cut Wall & Beal's minutes to keep them fresh for a playoff run.

Also, in that Toronto series, all we did was trap every single Lowry Derozan Lou Williams pick and roll and forced the rest of those scrubs to beat us and they didn't even come close . It was like a collection of an injured Jonas, Terence Ross, who was terrible all series, Vasquez, who was unplayable, and Amir Johnson, who couldn't hit a shot from anywhere.

Obviously, we have some different weapons on our team that can score the ball, we also have Satoransky and Oubre that are versatile defenders that can mix and match defensively for him, and Mahinmi, who can play great help D behind him.

Still not a big fan, just pointing out how different the situations were

I dont disagree with Lowe about Lou, but looking at his stats doesnt show some big drop off in FTA. It shows that he went from shooting 34% from 3 to 19%.. When 41% of your FGA are from 3 and you shoot 19%, then you suck...

[stevemcqueen1]

That is 17 players spanning 5 or 6 drafts - you are looking at a less than 10% hit rate. If Ernie can somehow get the Lakers to take Nicholson in the deal, I am 100% behind it.

That's 17 players whose value vastly exceed a year and a half of Lou Williams. There are many more who were solid rotation players. And a lot of them were picked by Houston, Golden State, and San Antonio. Those teams draft late and hit on far higher than 10% of their picks. They're good and they place an emphasis on developing their own talent. And they keep their draft picks. These are the organizations we should be copying.

You're talking about trading a first round pick for a season and a half of a 30 year old bench guard with a history of coming up small in the postseason and dumping a guy who has a sub MLE contract. That is a flat out waste of a draft pick for a team that will not contend during that season and a half and will be up against the luxury tax this summer.

Blowing draft picks is how we guarantee we end up with a **** bench during the prime years of our window. It's how we become the Clippers instead of the Warriors or Spurs.

[payitforward]

We are going to package our pick for Lou Williams. There's too much smoke for there to be no fire.

Ernie probably would have blown the pick anyway.

Ernie is so bad at scouting that he justifies his bad trades.

I mean can we say that. sure the jan pick was bad and singleton was a moderate risk not a real stretch. Mack is still in the league, McGee is still in the league, Young is still in the league. Wall is the best PG in the league, beal is a borderline avatar, and porter is a top 12 SF. Tomas and kelley have a lot of potential too. Its not likes he drafted like the kings.

Did you write that whole paragraph just to sneak in "Wall is the best PG in the league"?

I do agree that Beal can be an avatar -- only 2 letters needed to be changed for that!

Back to reality: Singleton was an awful pick not "a moderate risk!" I wasn't here in '11, but I'd be willing to bet that 90% of this Board wanted either Faried or Harris when that pick came along. As to Mack -- we waived the guy after giving him no chance. Ernie said, & I quote (more or less) "we don't have time to develop Shelvin Mack." Huh? In 2011? Turning to Tomas -- we passed up Draymond Green, Jae Crowder, & a few other guys much better than Tomas (& who contributed to their teams in the 4 years he stayed in Europe). Sorry, no defending that pick. Porter was a good pick -- but the obvious pick, I'd say, as picking 3d is pretty easy. I liked Ernie's move to nab Oubre.

Of course you're forgetting a few things -- repeated wasted trades of R2 picks for cash, etc.

I don't think that lou williams is going to happen, at least not for our 2017 first, because if that were the case it would have happened already. if we make it Nicholson and a second in 2017 for Lou I can live with that.

Nicholson & a 2d for Lou? Well, yeah! obviously. That would be worth it if Williams was injured immediately & never played a game for us! Nicholson & a 2d this year would be worth it for nothing at all in return.

[payitforward]

We are going to package our pick for Lou Williams. There's too much smoke for there to be no fire.

Ernie probably would have blown the pick anyway.

Ernie is so bad at scouting that he justifies his bad trades.

I mean can we say that. sure the jan pick was bad and singleton was a moderate risk not a real stretch. Mack is still in the league, McGee is still in the league, Young is still in the league. Wall is the best PG in the league, beal is a borderline avatar, and porter is a top 12 SF. Tomas and kelley have a lot of potential too. Its not likes he drafted like the kings.

Did you write that whole paragraph just to sneak in "Wall is the best PG in the league"?

I do agree that Beal can be an avatar -- only 2 letters needed to be changed for that!

Back to reality: Singleton was an awful pick not "a moderate risk!" I wasn't here in '11, but I'd be willing to bet that 90% of this Board wanted either Faried or Harris when that pick came along. As to Mack -- we waived the guy after giving him no chance. Ernie said, & I quote (more or less) "we don't have time to develop Shelvin Mack." Huh? In 2011? Turning to Tomas -- we passed up Draymond Green, Jae Crowder, & a few other guys much better than Tomas (& who contributed to their teams in the 4 years he stayed in Europe). Sorry, no defending that pick. Porter was a good pick -- but the obvious pick, I'd say, as picking 3d is pretty easy. I liked Ernie's move to nab Oubre.

Of course you're forgetting a few things -- repeated wasted trades of R2 picks for cash, etc.

I don't think that lou williams is going to happen, at least not for our 2017 first, because if that were the case it would have happened already. if we make it Nicholson and a second in 2017 for Lou I can live with that.

Nicholson & a 2d for Lou? Well, yeah! obviously. That would be worth it if Williams was injured immediately & never played a game for us! Nicholson & a 2d this year would be worth it for nothing at all in return.

[sfam]

Just do it. 1st Rd Pick for Lou.

All arguments pointing to the value of a late first round pick forget that we have Ernie "blindfold" Grunfeld as our GM

The FO has more hits than misses in the draft since 2010. Seraphin, Singleton, and Vesley were his only bad first round picks. Wall, Beal, Porter, Booker, and Oubre were all good picks. He's had a couple of solid second round choices too in Sato, Clarkson, and Mack. Problem is he's sold off those second rounders for cash and traded firsts for vets as much as he's actually kept and used the picks.

But at least when we traded firsts for Keef and Gortat we got back starting bigs. That's a way better return than a first for Lou Williams. Lou Williams is a good player and he could definitely help us. The issue is trading a first for him is imprudent. Draft picks are precious now because of the cheap contracts and long term assets they yield. We need that more than we need to rent a good sixth man in a year where we aren't contenders.

We are contenders.

Without significant injury, I think the number of contenders equals "1". I doubt even Lebron can change that.

[payitforward]

I assumed deneem had us giving the pick & just wrote it up wrong.

No one is giving anything at all for Burke, Thornton & Ochefu!

Wait a minute, how about a protected 2017 second-round pick, McLellan, House, Ochefu, Burke, Thornton and rights to Juan Carlos Navarro for Portis, Rondo, Mirotic and 2017 and 2018 first-round picks.

Yea I said it backwards
Burke Thornton ochefu 2018 1st for portis and mirotic

Everybody here (me included) really liked Bobby Portis in the 2015 draft. So far he hasn't been great, but he's still young & he has shown some good stuff. & improved numbers this year -- though on very little playing time.

It's well known that I hate trading picks, esp. R1 picks. But... I feel tempted by the idea of acquiring him, & that's what it would take I believe.

I don't want Mirotic at all, however.

edit: Not our 2017 R1 pick for Portis: I'd much rather have Caleb Swanigan than Portis at this point. CS is projected @#26 by DR, which means he'd be available to us. OTOH, he's been rising in DR's mock. Still...

[payitforward]

I would do nicholson 2018 first for Mirotic.

No way. Mirotic is not a good player.

[NiteOwl]

That is 17 players spanning 5 or 6 drafts - you are looking at a less than 10% hit rate. If Ernie can somehow get the Lakers to take Nicholson in the deal, I am 100% behind it.

That's 17 players whose value vastly exceed a year and a half of Lou Williams. There are many more who were solid rotation players. And a lot of them were picked by Houston, Golden State, and San Antonio. Those teams draft late and hit on far higher than 10% of their picks. They're good and they place an emphasis on developing their own talent. And they keep their draft picks. These are the organizations we should be copying.

You're talking about trading a first round pick for a season and a half of a 30 year old bench guard with a history of coming up small in the postseason and dumping a guy who has a sub MLE contract. That is a flat out waste of a draft pick for a team that will not contend during that season and a half and will be up against the luxury tax this summer.

Blowing draft picks is how we guarantee we end up with a **** bench during the prime years of our window. It's how we become the Clippers instead of the Warriors or Spurs.

Steve - if Ernie was out of the picture, I would be on your side - I think he is a below average talent evaluator and that his likelihood of making a Houston/SA/GS type of selection is very low.

I think the squad is better off with Gortat and Morris than if Ernie had kept the picks. The bigger problem is that he completely $hit the bed during free agency and handcuffed us with big contracts for mostly dog$hit players. Sure would love a mulligan on Mahinmi that would have brought Ibaka here instead. I would pay him $16 per year to be part of the 3 big rotation with Gortat in Morris as any of the 3 could play together - no such luck with Mahinmi and Gortat.

Bigger issue is that we need a new GM.

[payitforward]

That is 17 players spanning 5 or 6 drafts - you are looking at a less than 10% hit rate. If Ernie can somehow get the Lakers to take Nicholson in the deal, I am 100% behind it.

A lot of players were left out of that list. Here are an extra 25 from 3 drafts:

Jared Sullinger
Miles Plumlee
Festus Ezeli
Quincy Acy
Will Barton
Kyle O'Quinn
Georgiu Dieng
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Andre Roberson
Allen Crabbe
Alex Abrines (rookie this year, so...)
Isaiah Canaan
Jeff Withey
Mike Muscala
James Ennis
Joffrey Lauvergne (too soon to tell)
Shabazz Napier
Kyle Anderson
Joe Harris
Cleanthony Early
Jerami Grant
Spencer Dinwiddie
Glenn Robinson
Nikola Jokic
Dwight Powell
Jordan Clarkson

In fact, there's about a 25% hit rate on R2 picks alone. And an NBA-level player on a rookie contract is a valuable asset.

Lou Williams, otoh, is having the best year of his career -- by a lot not a little. I wouldn't bet a R1 pick that he'll keep it up. Dumping Nicholson is a plus, of course. But, still... no.

[NatP4]

Well this thread is ruined

[TGW]

That is 17 players spanning 5 or 6 drafts - you are looking at a less than 10% hit rate. If Ernie can somehow get the Lakers to take Nicholson in the deal, I am 100% behind it.

A lot of players were left out of that list. Here are an extra 25 from 3 drafts:

Jared Sullinger
Miles Plumlee
Festus Ezeli
Quincy Acy
Will Barton
Kyle O'Quinn
Georgiu Dieng
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Andre Roberson
Allen Crabbe
Alex Abrines (rookie this year, so...)
Isaiah Canaan
Jeff Withey
Mike Muscala
James Ennis
Joffrey Lauvergne (too soon to tell)
Shabazz Napier
Kyle Anderson
Joe Harris
Cleanthony Early
Jerami Grant
Spencer Dinwiddie
Glenn Robinson
Nikola Jokic
Dwight Powell
Jordan Clarkson

In fact, there's about a 25% hit rate on R2 picks alone. And an NBA-level player on a rookie contract is a valuable asset.

Lou Williams, otoh, is having the best year of his career -- by a lot not a little. I wouldn't bet a R1 pick that he'll keep it up. Dumping Nicholson is a plus, of course. But, still... no.

You're 100% right, PIF. We wouldn't even be having this discussion if Grunfailed was a good talent scout. For him, it's low-hanging fruit or bust.

[NatP4]

Half of those players are also complete garbage but whatever

DAM YOU ERNIE HOW YOU COULD MISS ON JAMES ENNIS

[Mojo Amok]

I saw some good bits from Bondom on the trade board...

A team by team breakdown of trade rumors over on Sports Illustrated:

http://www.si.com/nba/2017/02/21/nba-trade-deadline-preview-rumors-reports-primer-teams

Wizards blurb from that one:

Washington Wizards

As previously mentioned, the NBA’s top thinkers are mentally Photoshopping Lou Williams into the Wizards’ beautiful home-white alternates. However, Washington is one of the few teams that has made its first–round pick available in this perceived loaded draft. Don’t be surprised if a non-playoff team or one on the bubble coughs up a rotation player in order to snag an extra first–round pick. While Williams is the safe bet here, there’s no telling just how coveted a first rounder may become on Tuesday at 2:50 p.m. There’s a reason Williams isn’t already in D.C. The Wiz would be smart to wait this out.

Then this....

Read on Twitter

[sfam]

I saw some good bits from Bondom on the trade board...

A team by team breakdown of trade rumors over on Sports Illustrated:

http://www.si.com/nba/2017/02/21/nba-trade-deadline-preview-rumors-reports-primer-teams

Wizards blurb from that one:

Washington Wizards

As previously mentioned, the NBA’s top thinkers are mentally Photoshopping Lou Williams into the Wizards’ beautiful home-white alternates. However, Washington is one of the few teams that has made its first–round pick available in this perceived loaded draft. Don’t be surprised if a non-playoff team or one on the bubble coughs up a rotation player in order to snag an extra first–round pick. While Williams is the safe bet here, there’s no telling just how coveted a first rounder may become on Tuesday at 2:50 p.m. There’s a reason Williams isn’t already in D.C. The Wiz would be smart to wait this out.

Then this....

Read on Twitter

I have full confidence in EG to overpay, even when its clear to all he won't need to. I'd love to be proven wrong. Williams without a first would be amazing.

But regarding the story, I think Bigs are depressed and good guards may be more highly coveted. The game has changed.

[NatP4]

Doesn't Ernie prove people wrong regularly at the trade deadline? Sessions, Morris, Miller were all good pickups that people complained about. It's crazy to think about the amount of hate he got for the Morris trade and now we have an all star caliber PF in exchange for a late lottery pick.

[J-Ves]

Doesn't Ernie prove people wrong regularly at the trade deadline? Sessions, Morris, Miller were all good pickups that people complained about. It's crazy to think about the amount of hate he got for the Morris trade and now we have an all star caliber PF in exchange for a late lottery pick.

He's been an all star caliber player since the beginning of January. Before that he was at best a rotation quality big who was forced into the starting role due to a lack of talent at that position. Calling him an all star caliber PF is a little disingenuous.

[sfam]

Doesn't Ernie prove people wrong regularly at the trade deadline? Sessions, Morris, Miller were all good pickups that people complained about. It's crazy to think about the amount of hate he got for the Morris trade and now we have an all star caliber PF in exchange for a late lottery pick.

He's been an all star caliber player since the beginning of January. Before that he was at best a rotation quality big who was forced into the starting role due to a lack of talent at that position. Calling him an all star caliber PF is a little disingenuous.

To be clear, I'm fine if EG picks up a schlub that Brooks then turns into an all-star caliber player.

[europeanfan]

Reading this thread I actually agree that they have to get rid of Mahinmi more than anything.

Mahinmi + 2017 1st for Tyson Chandler (shorter contract, less money and better at basketball)

Nicholson + 2 or 3 second rounders for Bogdanovic

Gortat Chandler
Morris Porter/Smith
Porter Oubre
Beal Bogdanovic
Wall Burke/Sato

I think it's very good, Not a single bad contract left.

When Wall becomes a FA (same time as Paul George) only Beal and Otto would be on the books...