2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2

[bondom34]

Harden is easily this seasons MVP. How this is even a discussion with the media, is beyond me.

They're not going to give it to Westbrook who's carrying his team to the 7th seed.

When was the last time a player was given the MVP for being in the 7th seed?

Besides, the triple double is the most overrated stat in all of sports. They'd, essentially be given the MVP to Westbrook for averaging 1.5 more rebounds.

I mean, take those away and to me he's still having a better season. Harden will win because his team won more, but if you're asking who's playing better I'm taking Westbrook.

Also, OKC's not a lock at 7, they could move up to as far as 4. Not likely, but possible.

[Edumacated]

My vote is Kawhi. Elite on both ends of the court.

[Jazzy13]

Ill take the guy who plays basketball over freethrow ball.

Can you imagine Harden playing a pickup game and flailing his arms?

[draftnightsuit]

Someone else (Lebron)

[DubTheVanDamage]

The only case Kawhi has is wins, and nothing else.

LeBron beats him in nearly every major category statistically. I have a hard time believing the media will vote for a Spurs player anyways, unless it's runaway obvious, and even then, who knows.

Not to mention, both players have the same record when actually on the floor 41-12. Cavs are 0-5 without LeBron while the Spurs are 4-1 without Kawhi.

So even at this point the "team record" doesn't really give him any boost. Unless players get credit for wins they didn't participate in.

This whole "LeBron is resting" thing is kind of hypocritical for any player outside of Harden and Westbrook, all other players who have any chance have missed games.

Kawhi

48.7 FG%
38.7 3FG%
2.0 3s/game
25.8 PPG
4.6 RPG
3.3 APG
1.8 SPG
0.7 BPG
2.1 TPG

Lebron

54.1 FG%
38.7 3FG%
1.7 3s/game
25.7 PPG
7.9 RPG
8.9 APG
1.4 SPG
0.6 BPG
4.3 TPG

By my count Kawhi has Lebron beat 5-3 with a tie in 3FG%. But Lebron dominates every statistical category?

The MVP will come down to Harden or Westbrook.

I don't really consider 0.1 ppg more "beating", considering the difference can be completely attributed to FTAs, the only category where Kawhi has an advantage is steals. They are essentially equivalent in PPG, and BPG, TS%, and BBref +/-.

Lebron has a better FG%, RPG, APG, Assist:Turnover, BPM, VORP, RPM, RPM Wins, and the big one IMO, On/off (1.4 to 13.9).

Just personally, I don't think Kawhi had a case over Lebron, or the ability to get votes over Lebron. Not that either guy has a chance really, they both need other guys ahead of them to basically lose the award, which includes Harden and probably Westbrook.

The funny thing is that nearly all of your LeBron over Kawhi arguments can be used to argue KD over LeBron. There's also a good case to be made that Durant has played the best defense of any MVP candidate.

I'm not advocating Durant for MVP (although anyone that doesn't at least have him on their top-5 list has opted for feelings over logic) but his presence -- both with advanced stats and team record -- will make it harder for anyone who doesn't have clearly better counting stats (i.e. Harden and Westbrook).

NBA.com has it:
Harden
Westbrook
Durant
James
Leonard

http://www.nba.com/mvp-ladder

This is pretty much how I have it although it's close enough that if someone wants to argue LeBron or Leonard over Durant, that's fine with me.

[RCM88x]

Kawhi

48.7 FG%
38.7 3FG%
2.0 3s/game
25.8 PPG
4.6 RPG
3.3 APG
1.8 SPG
0.7 BPG
2.1 TPG

Lebron

54.1 FG%
38.7 3FG%
1.7 3s/game
25.7 PPG
7.9 RPG
8.9 APG
1.4 SPG
0.6 BPG
4.3 TPG

By my count Kawhi has Lebron beat 5-3 with a tie in 3FG%. But Lebron dominates every statistical category?

The MVP will come down to Harden or Westbrook.

I don't really consider 0.1 ppg more "beating", considering the difference can be completely attributed to FTAs, the only category where Kawhi has an advantage is steals. They are essentially equivalent in PPG, and BPG, TS%, and BBref +/-.

Lebron has a better FG%, RPG, APG, Assist:Turnover, BPM, VORP, RPM, RPM Wins, and the big one IMO, On/off (1.4 to 13.9).

Just personally, I don't think Kawhi had a case over Lebron, or the ability to get votes over Lebron. Not that either guy has a chance really, they both need other guys ahead of them to basically lose the award, which includes Harden and probably Westbrook.

The funny thing is that nearly all of your LeBron over Kawhi arguments can be used to argue KD over LeBron. There's also a good case to be made that Durant has played the best defense of any MVP candidate.

I'm not advocating Durant for MVP (although anyone that doesn't at least have him on their top-5 list has opted for feelings over logic) but his presence -- both with advanced stats and team record -- will make it harder for anyone who doesn't have clearly better counting stats (i.e. Harden and Westbrook).

NBA.com has it:
Harden
Westbrook
Durant
James
Leonard

http://www.nba.com/mvp-ladder

This is pretty much how I have it although it's close enough that if someone wants to argue LeBron or Leonard over Durant, that's fine with me.

Its a good thing the award isn't a truly statistical based thing, otherwise we'd have riots.


BBRef has he following order for MVP currently:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

1. Harden 36%
2. Durant 27%
3. Lebron 11%
4. Westbrook 7%
5. Curry and Kawhi 6%

In a completely stats based world, Durant probably gets the nod or is a lot higher in peoples eyes. But the narrative and surroundings to the season often shape the race more than the actual on court play does.

[Edrees]

The only case Kawhi has is wins, and nothing else.

LeBron beats him in nearly every major category statistically. I have a hard time believing the media will vote for a Spurs player anyways, unless it's runaway obvious, and even then, who knows.

Not to mention, both players have the same record when actually on the floor 41-12. Cavs are 0-5 without LeBron while the Spurs are 4-1 without Kawhi.

So even at this point the "team record" doesn't really give him any boost. Unless players get credit for wins they didn't participate in.

This whole "LeBron is resting" thing is kind of hypocritical for any player outside of Harden and Westbrook, all other players who have any chance have missed games.

Kawhi

48.7 FG%
38.7 3FG%
2.0 3s/game
25.8 PPG
4.6 RPG
3.3 APG
1.8 SPG
0.7 BPG
2.1 TPG

Lebron

54.1 FG%
38.7 3FG%
1.7 3s/game
25.7 PPG
7.9 RPG
8.9 APG
1.4 SPG
0.6 BPG
4.3 TPG

By my count Kawhi has Lebron beat 5-3 with a tie in 3FG%. But Lebron dominates every statistical category?

The MVP will come down to Harden or Westbrook.

I don't really consider 0.1 ppg more "beating", considering the difference can be completely attributed to FTAs, the only category where Kawhi has an advantage is steals. They are essentially equivalent in PPG, and BPG, TS%, and BBref +/-.

Lebron has a better FG%, RPG, APG, Assist:Turnover, BPM, VORP, RPM, RPM Wins, and the big one IMO, On/off (1.4 to 13.9).

Just personally, I don't think Kawhi had a case over Lebron, or the ability to get votes over Lebron. Not that either guy has a chance really, they both need other guys ahead of them to basically lose the award, which includes Harden and probably Westbrook.

The point is Lebron's stats aren't overhwhelming enough over Kawhi's to overcome an 8 game difference, the same way Westbrooks' stats aren't good enough to overcome Lebron over an 8 game difference. If you want to go with stats, the MVP is Westbrook. If you want to go with wins, it's Kawhi. If you want a combination of stats and wins, it's Harden. I just don't see Lebron squeezing in there this year as he doesn't have the best stats and he doesn't have the most wins (or possibly not even the 2nd most wins) out of any of the MVP candidates.

Just personally, I don't think Kawhi had a case over Lebron, or the ability to get votes over Lebron. Not that either guy has a chance really, they both need other guys ahead of them to basically lose the award, which includes Harden and probably Westbrook.

I'm not saying it's right or wrong, but there will be a sizable chunk of voters who will look at a 7 or 8 game difference of Kawhi vs Lebron and give their vote to Kawhi, regardless of the context.

[NBAFan93]

Right now at this moment I'd say Westbrook - but I'm fresh off watching two amazing performances by him, including that win over the Pelicans that was especially spectacular. Harden just lost last night too.

However, in a week or two this could change if OKC starts to decline and Houston keeps winning steadily or has some key wins (but I think OKC is in a good position to finish the season strong and helping Westbrook's chances).

They are both having MVP-calibur seasons for sure though - and I really would be okay w/ them doing something like a Co-MVP this year cause it's a unique situation.

[RCM88x]

Kawhi

48.7 FG%
38.7 3FG%
2.0 3s/game
25.8 PPG
4.6 RPG
3.3 APG
1.8 SPG
0.7 BPG
2.1 TPG

Lebron

54.1 FG%
38.7 3FG%
1.7 3s/game
25.7 PPG
7.9 RPG
8.9 APG
1.4 SPG
0.6 BPG
4.3 TPG

By my count Kawhi has Lebron beat 5-3 with a tie in 3FG%. But Lebron dominates every statistical category?

The MVP will come down to Harden or Westbrook.

I don't really consider 0.1 ppg more "beating", considering the difference can be completely attributed to FTAs, the only category where Kawhi has an advantage is steals. They are essentially equivalent in PPG, and BPG, TS%, and BBref +/-.

Lebron has a better FG%, RPG, APG, Assist:Turnover, BPM, VORP, RPM, RPM Wins, and the big one IMO, On/off (1.4 to 13.9).

Just personally, I don't think Kawhi had a case over Lebron, or the ability to get votes over Lebron. Not that either guy has a chance really, they both need other guys ahead of them to basically lose the award, which includes Harden and probably Westbrook.

The point is Lebron's stats aren't overhwhelming enough over Kawhi's to overcome an 8 game difference, the same way Westbrooks' stats aren't good enough to overcome Lebron over an 8 game difference. If you want to go with stats, the MVP is Westbrook. If you want to go with wins, it's Kawhi. If you want a combination of stats and wins, it's Harden. I just don't see Lebron squeezing in there this year as he doesn't have the best stats and he doesn't have the most wins (or possibly not even the 2nd most wins) out of any of the MVP candidates.

Just personally, I don't think Kawhi had a case over Lebron, or the ability to get votes over Lebron. Not that either guy has a chance really, they both need other guys ahead of them to basically lose the award, which includes Harden and probably Westbrook.

I'm not saying it's right, but there will be a sizable chunk of voters who will look at a 7 or 8 game difference of Kawhi vs Lebron and give their vote to Kawhi.

I agree but... both Kawhi and Lebron have both played in the same number of team wins, 41 as each other. The Spurs just have 4 wins in games where Kawhi sits and the Cavs have none when LeBron sits. Its entirely possible that the Spurs end up with 7-8 more wins than the Cavs, simply because they win games when Kawhi sits, while the Cavs' don't when LeBron does.

Not that this will matter though. Expecting the media to actually spend more than 5 seconds on their vote is wishful at best.

[Hoopz Afrik]

Westbrook is literally 3 games behind for the 4th seed So that is what matters to you guys?

Behind is behind whether it's 3 games, 30 games, or a half game. If he ends the season in 7th then he shouldn't get consideration. *shrugs*

[clippertown]

The real question is whether Stephen Curry would be in the conversation for MVP if Durant never joined the Warriors.

[bwgood77]

What are people's thoughts on this?
Right now it's between Harden and Westbrook in most people's eyes. If you think it's someone else say why.
But of they both keep playing this way it will be either Harden or Westbrook.

Who you got? Harden's taken this Rockets team to a legitimate underdog contender.
Westbrook has just tied Wilt's record for 2nd most triple doubles in a season with 41- an amazing accomplishment.
So who you got and why?


Gonna be pretty close I think.

This is going to be merged with the MVP discussion since there is already a topic on that.

[bmurph128]

Looking at Harden and Westbrook's FG%, it got me thinking. Would this be the lowest FG% to win MVP?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/mvp.html


Pretty interesting. If either one of them won the award right now, it would be the lowest FG% for an MVP since 1965 - 52 years - aside from Iverson in 2001.

There are some similarities between Iverson's situation and Westbrook's. But Iverson's team finished 1st in the East.

So it will be interesting to see if this happens. In this day and age, I would be shocked. Which is why I think it'll be LeBron.

[DubTheVanDamage]

I don't really consider 0.1 ppg more "beating", considering the difference can be completely attributed to FTAs, the only category where Kawhi has an advantage is steals. They are essentially equivalent in PPG, and BPG, TS%, and BBref +/-.

Lebron has a better FG%, RPG, APG, Assist:Turnover, BPM, VORP, RPM, RPM Wins, and the big one IMO, On/off (1.4 to 13.9).

Just personally, I don't think Kawhi had a case over Lebron, or the ability to get votes over Lebron. Not that either guy has a chance really, they both need other guys ahead of them to basically lose the award, which includes Harden and probably Westbrook.

The funny thing is that nearly all of your LeBron over Kawhi arguments can be used to argue KD over LeBron. There's also a good case to be made that Durant has played the best defense of any MVP candidate.

I'm not advocating Durant for MVP (although anyone that doesn't at least have him on their top-5 list has opted for feelings over logic) but his presence -- both with advanced stats and team record -- will make it harder for anyone who doesn't have clearly better counting stats (i.e. Harden and Westbrook).

NBA.com has it:
Harden
Westbrook
Durant
James
Leonard

http://www.nba.com/mvp-ladder

This is pretty much how I have it although it's close enough that if someone wants to argue LeBron or Leonard over Durant, that's fine with me.

Its a good thing the award isn't a truly statistical based thing, otherwise we'd have riots.


BBRef has he following order for MVP currently:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

1. Harden 36%
2. Durant 27%
3. Lebron 11%
4. Westbrook 7%
5. Curry and Kawhi 6%

In a completely stats based world, Durant probably gets the nod or is a lot higher in peoples eyes. But the narrative and surroundings to the season often shape the race more than the actual on court play does.

I agree -- not only do I think the narrative doesn't support Durant but I think the goalposts are moving for MVP criteria. The media is echoing LeBron's question of, "What does 'valuable' really mean?"

By past criteria, I think we'd be looking at a Durant/James race but that's clearly not the case this season and that's fine with me.

I do think LeBron needs to separate from Durant to have a realistic chance but, with the injuries the Cavs have, he just may do so.

[alevirfe]

Looking at Harden and Westbrook's FG%, it got me thinking. Would this be the lowest FG% to win MVP?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/mvp.html


Pretty interesting. If either one of them won the award right now, it would be the lowest FG% for an MVP since 1965 - 52 years - aside from Iverson in 2001.

There are some similarities between Iverson's situation and Westbrook's. But Iverson's team finished 1st in the East.

So it will be interesting to see if this happens. In this day and age, I would be shocked. Which is why I think it'll be LeBron.

While you're right, it's worth pointing out that Harden is a very efficient player. His FG% is brought down by the 9+ 3-pointers he takes per game. It's a new NBA and judging efficiency by FG% is very flawed.

To get a good measure for a player who shoots as many 3s and gets to the line as much as Harden you are better off looking at TS%

[bmurph128]

Looking at Harden and Westbrook's FG%, it got me thinking. Would this be the lowest FG% to win MVP?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/mvp.html


Pretty interesting. If either one of them won the award right now, it would be the lowest FG% for an MVP since 1965 - 52 years - aside from Iverson in 2001.

There are some similarities between Iverson's situation and Westbrook's. But Iverson's team finished 1st in the East.

So it will be interesting to see if this happens. In this day and age, I would be shocked. Which is why I think it'll be LeBron.

While you're right, it's worth pointing out that Harden is a very efficient player. His FG% is brought down by the 9+ 3-pointers he takes per game. It's a new NBA and judging efficiency by FG% is very flawed.

To get a good measure for a player who shoots as many 3s and gets to the line as much as Harden you are better off looking at TS%

TS% is too heavily influenced by free throws. eFG% accounts for 3 point attempts though..

And what's interesting is, Steph has taken more 3s than Harden but has a MUCH higher eFG%

The only thing efficient about Harden's game is getting to the free throw line. Eric Gordon has a higher eFG% and has taken almost as many 3s. Obviously he has a different role than Harden, but that percentage is still historically bad for an MVP.

Also, just as an aside - why is a guy shooting under 35% taking 9 3s a game??? I'd have to research it but I would guess that would be a first as well.

[bmurph128]

The funny thing is that nearly all of your LeBron over Kawhi arguments can be used to argue KD over LeBron. There's also a good case to be made that Durant has played the best defense of any MVP candidate.

I'm not advocating Durant for MVP (although anyone that doesn't at least have him on their top-5 list has opted for feelings over logic) but his presence -- both with advanced stats and team record -- will make it harder for anyone who doesn't have clearly better counting stats (i.e. Harden and Westbrook).

NBA.com has it:
Harden
Westbrook
Durant
James
Leonard

http://www.nba.com/mvp-ladder

This is pretty much how I have it although it's close enough that if someone wants to argue LeBron or Leonard over Durant, that's fine with me.

Its a good thing the award isn't a truly statistical based thing, otherwise we'd have riots.


BBRef has he following order for MVP currently:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

1. Harden 36%
2. Durant 27%
3. Lebron 11%
4. Westbrook 7%
5. Curry and Kawhi 6%

In a completely stats based world, Durant probably gets the nod or is a lot higher in peoples eyes. But the narrative and surroundings to the season often shape the race more than the actual on court play does.

I agree -- not only do I think the narrative doesn't support Durant but I think the goalposts are moving for MVP criteria. The media is echoing LeBron's question of, "What does 'valuable' really mean?"

By past criteria, I think we'd be looking at a Durant/James race but that's clearly not the case this season and that's fine with me.

I do think LeBron needs to separate from Durant to have a realistic chance but, with the injuries the Cavs have, he just may do so.

Idk man, the Warriors broke the league. I was looking at their game from last night (ESPN update that Steph missed all 11 3s) and I was looking through their box score....it's strange.

Steph shot horribly yet was +8

KD shot pretty well and made 10 FTs and was -3

We know that KD is a MUCH better defender than Curry

Now, this is only one game, but this is a microcosm of the Warriors MVP issue IMO. In a vacuum, this tells us that the Warriors made a run with KD on the bench - the issue, as far as MVP talk goes, is that this also shows what we already knew - the Warriors don't really need KD. I'm sure every MVP candidate has had this come up, but with the Warriors, the team is so good that for anyone to have a realistic case at MVP, they'd need to break individual NBA records.

[alevirfe]

Looking at Harden and Westbrook's FG%, it got me thinking. Would this be the lowest FG% to win MVP?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/mvp.html


Pretty interesting. If either one of them won the award right now, it would be the lowest FG% for an MVP since 1965 - 52 years - aside from Iverson in 2001.

There are some similarities between Iverson's situation and Westbrook's. But Iverson's team finished 1st in the East.

So it will be interesting to see if this happens. In this day and age, I would be shocked. Which is why I think it'll be LeBron.

While you're right, it's worth pointing out that Harden is a very efficient player. His FG% is brought down by the 9+ 3-pointers he takes per game. It's a new NBA and judging efficiency by FG% is very flawed.

To get a good measure for a player who shoots as many 3s and gets to the line as much as Harden you are better off looking at TS%

TS% is too heavily influenced by free throws. eFG% accounts for 3 point attempts though..

And what's interesting is, Steph has taken more 3s than Harden but has a MUCH higher eFG%

The only thing efficient about Harden's game is getting to the free throw line. Eric Gordon has a higher eFG% and has taken almost as many 3s. Obviously he has a different role than Harden, but that percentage is still historically bad for an MVP.

Also, just as an aside - why is a guy shooting under 35% taking 9 3s a game??? I'd have to research it but I would guess that would be a first as well.

Good points, appreciate the debate. I still think no matter your thoughts on TS% or eFG% they are much better measures of efficiency than FG% in a league that's predicated on 3s and layups attempts

[MisterHibachi]

From reddit

The Houston Rockets are 11-10 after starting the year 31-9, losing 6 of their last 8 against >.500 teams. 10 of their final 21 games are against >.500 teams.

Above .500 teams they play in their final 21: LACx2, MEM, SAS, UTA, CLE, OKC, GSWx2, CHI
Sub .500 teams they play in their final 21: LAL, NOPx2, DENx3, POR, PHX, DET, SAC, MIN
If the Rockets don't pick up their play it will be an ugly 2nd half of the season for them.

[Screwston]

From reddit

The Houston Rockets are 11-10 after starting the year 31-9, losing 6 of their last 8 against >.500 teams. 10 of their final 21 games are against >.500 teams.

Above .500 teams they play in their final 21: LACx2, MEM, SAS, UTA, CLE, OKC, GSWx2, CHI
Sub .500 teams they play in their final 21: LAL, NOPx2, DENx3, POR, PHX, DET, SAC, MIN
If the Rockets don't pick up their play it will be an ugly 2nd half of the season for them.

They'll get hot again