2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2

[enko]

Right now, Westbrook is the MVP. This is just really a two a race between him and Harden.

[DubTheVanDamage]

Its a good thing the award isn't a truly statistical based thing, otherwise we'd have riots.


BBRef has he following order for MVP currently:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

1. Harden 36%
2. Durant 27%
3. Lebron 11%
4. Westbrook 7%
5. Curry and Kawhi 6%

In a completely stats based world, Durant probably gets the nod or is a lot higher in peoples eyes. But the narrative and surroundings to the season often shape the race more than the actual on court play does.

I agree -- not only do I think the narrative doesn't support Durant but I think the goalposts are moving for MVP criteria. The media is echoing LeBron's question of, "What does 'valuable' really mean?"

By past criteria, I think we'd be looking at a Durant/James race but that's clearly not the case this season and that's fine with me.

I do think LeBron needs to separate from Durant to have a realistic chance but, with the injuries the Cavs have, he just may do so.

Idk man, the Warriors broke the league. I was looking at their game from last night (ESPN update that Steph missed all 11 3s) and I was looking through their box score....it's strange.

Steph shot horribly yet was +8

KD shot pretty well and made 10 FTs and was -3

We know that KD is a MUCH better defender than Curry

Now, this is only one game, but this is a microcosm of the Warriors MVP issue IMO. In a vacuum, this tells us that the Warriors made a run with KD on the bench - the issue, as far as MVP talk goes, is that this also shows what we already knew - the Warriors don't really need KD. I'm sure every MVP candidate has had this come up, but with the Warriors, the team is so good that for anyone to have a realistic case at MVP, they'd need to break individual NBA records.

While I don't fully agree with the narrative you present, I do agree that it's the general perception and (even if he doesn't miss much time), KD won't win the MVP. All I was pointing out is the basic problem with arguing for LeBron over RW/JH is that those exact same arguments can be made for KD.

I think LeBron needs to up his stats to separate from Leonard and Durant to have a realistic chance of winning.

On the other hand, Westbrook is starting to win me over -- not as the best player in the league -- but the MVP.

[Hero]

Harden is fading.

LeBron is lurking, and so is Westbrook with an upgraded supporting cast.

Harden could use a couple standout wins to boost his case. I still have it quite close but I don't think LeBron is gonna have the record to win it.

[inquisitive]

With OKC adding Gibson and McDermott, they really have a shot at 50+ wins which will really help Westb's case. Hopefully, Harden finishes strong.

[RCM88x]

Westbrook has really made a strong case the last few weeks, ever since that Cavs win he's been great.

Not sure if I have him ahead of Harden at this point but this game might just have pushed him into 1st for now, and I've been champing Harden for months now.

[K_chile22]

Ill take the guy who plays basketball over freethrow ball.

Can you imagine Harden playing a pickup game and flailing his arms?

I love how people say this while Harden's eFG% is way better than Westbrooks

[K_chile22]

Looking at Harden and Westbrook's FG%, it got me thinking. Would this be the lowest FG% to win MVP?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/mvp.html


Pretty interesting. If either one of them won the award right now, it would be the lowest FG% for an MVP since 1965 - 52 years - aside from Iverson in 2001.

There are some similarities between Iverson's situation and Westbrook's. But Iverson's team finished 1st in the East.

So it will be interesting to see if this happens. In this day and age, I would be shocked. Which is why I think it'll be LeBron.

Because FG% is dumb. Both those guys shoot a lot of threes. Harden has been insanely efficient and WB has been at league average on insane usage.

[RaptorsLife]

Okc can still 5th or 4th in the west if that happens then it's a no Brainer

[sophie23]

Houston now will be playing lac,mem,spurs,jazz,bulls,cavs.
It can solidify jh posistion in the race or it can be his decline.

Streak, games like this with top teams prove if he is worthy mvp award

Sent from my SM-G920F using RealGM mobile app

[Ballerhogger]

Houston now will be playing lac,mem,spurs,jazz,bulls,cavs.
It can solidify jh posistion in the race or it can be his decline.

Streak, games like this with top teams prove if he is worthy mvp award

Sent from my SM-G920F using RealGM mobile app

Gotta be the bulls. Shouldnt be hard, LAC should be very winnable , jazz might be tough. Cavs vs HOU that will be biggest game for Harden and the rockets.

[zimpy27]

[inquisitive]

Harden really needs to play well when they meet Cavs on Sunday night nationally televised game.... Voters will be tuning in..Needs to finish strong in other games

[QPR]

The problem with this is you can't really do a similar case for Westbrook or Harden as they don't miss the games LeBron does. They have both played every game this season and won't be rested until playoff seeds are confirmed.

The Cavs tend to strategically pick games they can afford to or expect to lose when LeBron sits, especially back to backs. It's not as strong an argument as it looks on paper.

[bmurph128]

Looking at Harden and Westbrook's FG%, it got me thinking. Would this be the lowest FG% to win MVP?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/mvp.html


Pretty interesting. If either one of them won the award right now, it would be the lowest FG% for an MVP since 1965 - 52 years - aside from Iverson in 2001.

There are some similarities between Iverson's situation and Westbrook's. But Iverson's team finished 1st in the East.

So it will be interesting to see if this happens. In this day and age, I would be shocked. Which is why I think it'll be LeBron.

Because FG% is dumb. Both those guys shoot a lot of threes. Harden has been insanely efficient and WB has been at league average on insane usage.

How do you figure that Harden has been efficient? How is he more efficient than Westbrook?

And that they both shoot such a poor % from 3 probably means they should be shooting them less.

FG% is dumb? Lol...it tells us a lot about players. How often they put the ball in the basket is important - and Harden's FG % being so low is something there's really no excuse for - his teammates score A LOT more than Westbrook's do.

[bmurph128]

I agree -- not only do I think the narrative doesn't support Durant but I think the goalposts are moving for MVP criteria. The media is echoing LeBron's question of, "What does 'valuable' really mean?"

By past criteria, I think we'd be looking at a Durant/James race but that's clearly not the case this season and that's fine with me.

I do think LeBron needs to separate from Durant to have a realistic chance but, with the injuries the Cavs have, he just may do so.

Idk man, the Warriors broke the league. I was looking at their game from last night (ESPN update that Steph missed all 11 3s) and I was looking through their box score....it's strange.

Steph shot horribly yet was +8

KD shot pretty well and made 10 FTs and was -3

We know that KD is a MUCH better defender than Curry

Now, this is only one game, but this is a microcosm of the Warriors MVP issue IMO. In a vacuum, this tells us that the Warriors made a run with KD on the bench - the issue, as far as MVP talk goes, is that this also shows what we already knew - the Warriors don't really need KD. I'm sure every MVP candidate has had this come up, but with the Warriors, the team is so good that for anyone to have a realistic case at MVP, they'd need to break individual NBA records.

While I don't fully agree with the narrative you present, I do agree that it's the general perception and (even if he doesn't miss much time), KD won't win the MVP. All I was pointing out is the basic problem with arguing for LeBron over RW/JH is that those exact same arguments can be made for KD.

I think LeBron needs to up his stats to separate from Leonard and Durant to have a realistic chance of winning.

On the other hand, Westbrook is starting to win me over -- not as the best player in the league -- but the MVP.

Obviously it's a moot point now because KD is out of the MVP running. But the difference between LeBron and KD was Curry. So while you're right, I still think LeBron has had a comparable season to KD, and since KD has clearly better talent around him, IMO LeBron would win MVP over him.

[Bergmaniac]

Looking at Harden and Westbrook's FG%, it got me thinking. Would this be the lowest FG% to win MVP?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/mvp.html


Pretty interesting. If either one of them won the award right now, it would be the lowest FG% for an MVP since 1965 - 52 years - aside from Iverson in 2001.

There are some similarities between Iverson's situation and Westbrook's. But Iverson's team finished 1st in the East.

So it will be interesting to see if this happens. In this day and age, I would be shocked. Which is why I think it'll be LeBron.

Because FG% is dumb. Both those guys shoot a lot of threes. Harden has been insanely efficient and WB has been at league average on insane usage.

How do you figure that Harden has been efficient? How is he more efficient than Westbrook?

And that they both shoot such a poor % from 3 probably means they should be shooting them less.

FG% is dumb? Lol...it tells us a lot about players. How often they put the ball in the basket is important - and Harden's FG % being so low is something there's really no excuse for - his teammates score A LOT more than Westbrook's do.

TS% is a much better indicator than FG%. Harden's is currently 61.3 % which is great efficiency for a high volume scorer.

As for Westbrook, he is shooting 34.2% from 3 and for 34% from 16-23 feet. If anything, I'd say he needs to shoot more 3s and less of these long 2s. Obviously getting to the rim would be best, but he spent most of the season playing with horrendous spacing around him and a lot of teams just walled him and Adams off, put a defender on Oladipo and let Sabonis and Roberson wide open to shoot bricks from downtown so his options on most possessions were a long 2 or a 3 off the dribble, a pass to Sabonis or Roberson for a 3 when they shot below 25% for most of the months of these season, or try some thread the needle pass to Adams or Dipo.

[bmurph128]

Because FG% is dumb. Both those guys shoot a lot of threes. Harden has been insanely efficient and WB has been at league average on insane usage.

How do you figure that Harden has been efficient? How is he more efficient than Westbrook?

And that they both shoot such a poor % from 3 probably means they should be shooting them less.

FG% is dumb? Lol...it tells us a lot about players. How often they put the ball in the basket is important - and Harden's FG % being so low is something there's really no excuse for - his teammates score A LOT more than Westbrook's do.

TS% is a much better indicator than FG%. Harden's is currently 61.3 % which is great efficiency for a high volume scorer.

As for Westbrook, he is shooting 34.2% from 3 and for 34% from 16-23 feet. If anything, I'd say he needs to shoot more 3s and less of these long 2s. Obviously getting to the rim would be best, but he spent most of the season playing with horrendous spacing around him and a lot of teams just walled him and Adams off, put a defender on Oladipo and let Sabonis and Roberson wide open to shoot bricks from downtown so his options on most possessions were a long 2 or a 3 off the dribble, a pass to Sabonis or Roberson for a 3 when they shot below 25% for most of the months of these season, or try some thread the needle pass to Adams or Dipo.

Free throws throw TS% out of whack. The only difference between TS% and eFG% is that TS factors in free throws and eFG% does not. And the free throw portion of it is broken:

FTA are worth .44 - so if a player makes two free throws, the formula according to TS% is 2/(2x.88)
Conversely, if a player makes a jump shot, the formula according to TS% is 2/(2x1)

On the made FG attempts, your TS% is 100%; on the 2 made FTs, your TS% is 113%

95% of NBA players have a higher free throw percentage than anything else - so why does the formula work this way? On the season, Harden is 570/670 for free throws. Mapping this out for Harden, his TS% for free throws is:

570/(2x(.44x670)), which gives us a TS% of over 96% - even though Harden is an 85% free throw shooter. Because so many of his points come from the free throw line, it increases his TS to make it look respectable, despite the fact that he struggles offensively off of the free throw line.

Even using this flawed stat, however, Harden is 7th among players that would qualify as "volume scorers"; the 6 ahead of him:

Durant
Curry
Lowry
IT
LeBron
Kawhi

Of the guys above him, all commit less turnovers, most play better defense, all have a high FG% and eFG%, and all but Lowry/IT play on better teams - and the Celtics could easily pass the Rockets too.

Harden's MVP case is slipping away, and it'll be between Westbrook, LeBron, and Curry (with KD's injury) this year.

[Andre Roberstan]

On the other hand, Westbrook is starting to win me over -- not as the best player in the league -- but the MVP.

someone get me a defibrillator

[bondom34]

On the other hand, Westbrook is starting to win me over -- not as the best player in the league -- but the MVP.

someone get me a defibrillator

TBH I still contend he's having a better season than anyone so far as well, but this point alone is a shock to the system right now.

[K_chile22]

Free throws throw TS% out of whack. The only difference between TS% and eFG% is that TS factors in free throws and eFG% does not. And the free throw portion of it is broken:

FTA are worth .44 - so if a player makes two free throws, the formula according to TS% is 2/(2x.88)
Conversely, if a player makes a jump shot, the formula according to TS% is 2/(2x1)

On the made FG attempts, your TS% is 100%; on the 2 made FTs, your TS% is 113%

Well
1. Harden has a good eFG%
2. It's not TS that's out of whack, it is how you're using it. TS is for large sample sizes, like a season, or stretch of games, not 2 shooting possessions or single games. Don't blame the stat because you don't understand how it is supposed to work.

I also dont get not including free throws. They are shooting possessions being used by a player and points that are being scored. Why don't we just stop counting dunks in efficiency because they're such high % shots? because points are points. Ignoring free throws makes no sense when determining scoring efficiency. Efficiency is how many points you score in your scoring opportunities, discounting real points that are being put up on the scoreboard makes no sense. Your version of efficiency has no real world value because there are a ton of points and possessions you're just ignoring.