The Washington Capitals Thread

[pineappleheadindc]

.
Use this thread to discuss all things Washington Capitals here on the Wizards board.

Please use the weekly game thread for discussions about Caps games.

[pineappleheadindc]

.
Caps play tonight (Saturday, 2/25) at Nashville. Find the game thread here.

[AFM]

Did they win?

[80sballboy]

Playing without Oprik, Niskanen and T.J. Oshie.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/capitals/caps-coach-barry-trotzs-former-team-denies-him-his-700th-win/2017/02/25/de588300-faf8-11e6-9845-576c69081518_story.html?utm_term=.289a9bcf91ab

[Wizardspride]

Read on Twitter

[Benjammin]

Apparently the Caps are going all in by likely renting Shattenkirk.

Sent from my XT1575 using RealGM mobile app

[80sballboy]

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/shattke01.html

[NatP4]

i understand the move, Shattenkirk is a legit top pairing D, still getting bounced in round 1

[pineappleheadindc]

I like the move, we gotta do whatever to try and get into the Finals and see what happens.

[NatP4]

they didn't give up a whole lot to get him, but still, TBL and Florida are both going to sneak into the playoffs as low seeds. FLA gets Huberdeau back now and they are on fire, TBL is on fire also, and will add Stamkos at the right time. The caps will be extremely lucky to get out of the 1st round this year, they won't have a clear talent advantage like they had last year against the Flyers round 1. and thats before they get to Pittsburgh, New York, CBJ, and MTL. The east is absolutely loaded.

AND that doesn't even count the ridiculous task of facing Chicago or San Jose in the finals. I still rank them as a 2nd tier team talent-wise.

if they draw TBL, Pittsburgh, MTL on they way to the finals, I give them a 0% chance unfortunately.

[NatP4]

best case scenario might be TBL and FLA staying on fire and taking the division spots and Washington getting the easier matchup against a slipping Ottawa team or Boston, maybe they could take care of business and get some extra rest for the inevitable Penguins series.

[Sluggerface]

The caps will be extremely lucky to get out of the 1st round this year, they won't have a clear talent advantage like they had last year against the Flyers round 1.

Lmao. A top ten possession team that has the best 5 on 5 SV% in the NHL, that plays in the toughest division in the league and still has a league leading scoring differential by a considerable margin, that just added one of the 10 best scoring D's of the past seven years, is not getting bounced in the first round.

82 game seasons aren't as indicative of playoff success in the NHL as the past 25 games are, but there's nothing to suggest in the past 25 games that the Caps are going to struggle with anybody in the first round. They've been top tier during that time frame.

[NatP4]

The caps will be extremely lucky to get out of the 1st round this year, they won't have a clear talent advantage like they had last year against the Flyers round 1.

Lmao. A top ten possession team that has the best 5 on 5 SV% in the NHL, that plays in the toughest division in the league and still has a league leading scoring differential by a considerable margin, that just added one of the 10 best scoring D's of the past seven years, is not getting bounced in the first round.

82 game seasons aren't as indicative of playoff success in the NHL as the past 25 games are, but there's nothing to suggest in the past 25 games that the Caps are going to struggle with anybody in the first round. They've been top tier during that time frame.

Who are you expecting them to play in round 1? They are not beating a fully healthy Tampa Bay team or a fully healthy FLA team. Florida was missing Barkov and Huberdeau for a huge chunk of the year, TBL obviously has been missing Stamkos, but much more than that, they've hardly had the entire team healthy at any point this year. Point, Hedman, Stralmen, Johnson, Killorn and many others have been in and out of the lineup through the year.

The bolts were one terrible missed offsides call away from playing for the cup last year without Stamkos. Florida was the 2 seed when healthy.

The caps don't wanna catch either of those teams

[Wizardspride]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[Sluggerface]

The caps will be extremely lucky to get out of the 1st round this year, they won't have a clear talent advantage like they had last year against the Flyers round 1.

Lmao. A top ten possession team that has the best 5 on 5 SV% in the NHL, that plays in the toughest division in the league and still has a league leading scoring differential by a considerable margin, that just added one of the 10 best scoring D's of the past seven years, is not getting bounced in the first round.

82 game seasons aren't as indicative of playoff success in the NHL as the past 25 games are, but there's nothing to suggest in the past 25 games that the Caps are going to struggle with anybody in the first round. They've been top tier during that time frame.

Who are you expecting them to play in round 1? They are not beating a fully healthy Tampa Bay team or a fully healthy FLA team. Florida was missing Barkov and Huberdeau for a huge chunk of the year, TBL obviously has been missing Stamkos, but much more than that, they've hardly had the entire team healthy at any point this year. Point, Hedman, Stralmen, Johnson, Killorn and many others have been in and out of the lineup through the year.

The bolts were one terrible missed offsides call away from playing for the cup last year without Stamkos. Florida was the 2 seed when healthy.

The caps don't wanna catch either of those teams

Tampa was lucky to even be in the position that they were last year. Pittsburgh was the best team in the league after Sullivan was hired and it wasn't even close. Their underlying numbers were on fire heading into the playoffs and several guys in Hockey Analytics circles were predicting a cup run a mile away. Tampa just wasn't on that level. Florida had terrible underlying numbers last season, so bringing up what they did last year hardly matters.

This year, other than Florida who is performing at a slightly lesser PDO. Both teams are performing at a level that you would expect given their production....which still hasn't been better than what the Caps (who have been a clear tier above both teams) have done this year all season or in the past 25 games (including what the Panthers have done in the month of February).

Let me clarify, I'm not saying it's impossible for the Caps to lose in round 1. We all saw what happened against Montreal when the Caps were analytics darlings under Boudreau, obv anything can happen in Hockey, but it's still foolish to deny underlying numbers and the context they provide. There's no evidence to suggest that Florida or Tampa even when fully healthy have an advantage over the Caps in a playoff series this year, given how each team has played all season.

[NatP4]

Lmao. A top ten possession team that has the best 5 on 5 SV% in the NHL, that plays in the toughest division in the league and still has a league leading scoring differential by a considerable margin, that just added one of the 10 best scoring D's of the past seven years, is not getting bounced in the first round.

82 game seasons aren't as indicative of playoff success in the NHL as the past 25 games are, but there's nothing to suggest in the past 25 games that the Caps are going to struggle with anybody in the first round. They've been top tier during that time frame.

Who are you expecting them to play in round 1? They are not beating a fully healthy Tampa Bay team or a fully healthy FLA team. Florida was missing Barkov and Huberdeau for a huge chunk of the year, TBL obviously has been missing Stamkos, but much more than that, they've hardly had the entire team healthy at any point this year. Point, Hedman, Stralmen, Johnson, Killorn and many others have been in and out of the lineup through the year.

The bolts were one terrible missed offsides call away from playing for the cup last year without Stamkos. Florida was the 2 seed when healthy.

The caps don't wanna catch either of those teams

Tampa was lucky to even be in the position that they were last year. Pittsburgh was the best team in the league after Sullivan was hired and it wasn't even close. Their underlying numbers were on fire heading into the playoffs and several guys in Hockey Analytics circles were predicting a cup run a mile away. Tampa just wasn't on that level. Florida had terrible underlying numbers last season, so bringing up what they did last year hardly matters.

This year, other than Florida who is performing at a slightly lesser PDO. Both teams are performing at a level that you would expect given their production....which still hasn't been better than what the Caps (who have been a clear tier above both teams) have done this year all season or in the past 25 games (including what the Panthers have done in the month of February).

Let me clarify, I'm not saying it's impossible for the Caps to lose in round 1. We all saw what happened against Montreal when the Caps were analytics darlings under Boudreau, obv anything can happen in Hockey, but it's still foolish to deny underlying numbers and the context they provide. There's no evidence to suggest that Florida or Tampa even when fully healthy have an advantage over the Caps in a playoff series this year, given how each team has played all season.

The bolts were literally a blown offsides call away from beating the penguins in game 7 of the ECF, they led that series 3-2 WITHOUT STEVEN STAMKOS. There was no luck involved whatsoever. Stralman also missed time in that series from his broken leg. you seem to be missing the point here, analytics don't mean anything when teams haven't been healthy all year. The lightning were hit with the flu and had half the team out for a long period of time.

The caps lost to the pens in 6 last year, the bolts lost in 7 without 2 of their best players while also adding Brayden Point to the team this year.

[NatP4]

Read on Twitter

Scary sight

[Sluggerface]

The bolts were literally a blown offsides call away from beating the penguins in game 7 of the ECF, they led that series 3-2 WITHOUT STEVEN STAMKOS. There was no luck involved whatsoever.

Actually, there was a lot of luck involved. Hockey is one of the least predictive sports on the planet. A full 82 game season isn't even predictive of successful cup winners. Most people involved in analytics don't even bother building models that use more than the past 25 games as a sample.

Just to clarify, i'm not referring to the colloquial term "puck luck". I'm not suggesting that Tampa got favorable bounces in the series against the pens. What I'm suggesting is that if you were to simulate a 7 game series with Tampa and Pittsburgh where they were at last year 100 times, Pittsburgh is going to come out on top more often than not, hence the actual odds of Tampa being where they were in the series was low. Even if you were to add Stamkos into the discussion, Tampa is still not going to look favorable in that scenario. The Pens were THAT good down the stretch.

Which is why I think it's silly to reduce a prediction to "Well X team made it farther than Y team with Z players" (Especially in Hockey where a superstar player only moves the needle a fraction of the amount as it does in other sports) and just throw out all of the math involved. You would go broke if you bet on sports for a living with that line of thinking.

[Mickstix]

The only weakness the Caps have now, is if they have an injury on the forward side. Don't listen to this "they don't have the talent" stuff. When healthy, there's isn't a more "talented" team in the league. Does that mean they'll do well in the playoffs? Hell no.. Hockey is extremely dependent on goaltending and luck. Bad bounces can kill you, soft goals can kill you, "choking" can kill you!! lol Ovie can't throw the team on his back and score 3 goals whenever they need it, ala Lebron/Curry. They'll need to stay healthy, focused and have their share of puck luck. Oh, and Holtby will need to be Holtbeast. Then they'll have a better then most "chance"!

[AFM]

How do I get into hockey?