Moderators: bwgood77, lilfishi22, Qwigglez
cosmofizzo wrote:I was thinking this morning, How many teams would sign Len with the intent of starting him?
... I'm not certain any such teams exist. In which case, Alex might be looking at some rather unimpressive offers.
MilotheSlayer wrote:cosmofizzo wrote:I was thinking this morning, How many teams would sign Len with the intent of starting him?
... I'm not certain any such teams exist. In which case, Alex might be looking at some rather unimpressive offers.
Outside of a desperate team like the Nets or Lakers I don't see many teams looking at him as a starter. What starters is he really better then? And at that point wouldn't that team throw money at Noel? Who in my opinion is the better NBA starter in today's game.
jcsunsfan wrote:MilotheSlayer wrote:cosmofizzo wrote:I was thinking this morning, How many teams would sign Len with the intent of starting him?
... I'm not certain any such teams exist. In which case, Alex might be looking at some rather unimpressive offers.
Outside of a desperate team like the Nets or Lakers I don't see many teams looking at him as a starter. What starters is he really better then? And at that point wouldn't that team throw money at Noel? Who in my opinion is the better NBA starter in today's game.
Noel, Monroe, Mason Plumlee, Pachulia, Olynyk, Baynes, Bogut. They are all FA's and would all be better choices for a starter than Len. Several are UFA's.
bwgood77 wrote:jcsunsfan wrote:MilotheSlayer wrote:Outside of a desperate team like the Nets or Lakers I don't see many teams looking at him as a starter. What starters is he really better then? And at that point wouldn't that team throw money at Noel? Who in my opinion is the better NBA starter in today's game.
Noel, Monroe, Mason Plumlee, Pachulia, Olynyk, Baynes, Bogut. They are all FA's and would all be better choices for a starter than Len. Several are UFA's.
Noel and Plumlee are very likely not going anywhere. Dallas will likely match anything, and Denver will almost surely match anything considering they traded Nurkic and a first for Plumlee. And Bogut and Pachulia are likely close to finished. Monroe seemed to have extremely limited trade value and isn't a rim protector. With Olynyk, I guess it depends on what kind of C you are looking for, shot blocking and rebounding, or more of an offensive guy. None of those guys other than Noel, and the aging Bogut are better shot blockers/rebounders than Len.
I don't think there will be many, if any suitors for Len, so I'm not sure what kind of contract he will command. I think McD will likely match anything that isn't outrageous though since he is so stingy about holding out for good trades...just can't see him letting a RFA walk away for free, despite what his trade value really is.
kennydorglas wrote:I posted few weeks ago some metric called "RUSSELL" (measures quality of the blocks = leads to a Def Rebound).
I guess no one cared to update that list so I did it by myself with our players:
Alex Len 46 blocks 25 RUSSELL (54%)
Tyson Chandler 9 blocks 5 RUSSELL (55%)
Marquese Chriss 15 blocks 6 RUSSELL (40%)
Dragan Bender 9 blocks 2 RUSSELL (22%)
fun tidbit: Devin Booker has 8 blocks 7 RUSSELL.
Is this Alex numbers any good? Let's see:
He's 4th in the league in BLOCK% (5.8), so I compared his numbers with the 3 guys on top of him in this stat (Myles Turner, Rudy Gobert and Anthony Davis)
Myles Turner 73 blocks 31 RUSSELL (42%)
Rudy Gobert 81 blocks 44 RUSSELL (54%)
Anthony Davis 82 blocks 49 RUSSELL (60%)
Not bad, right?
He needs to manage his fouls better tho. Took a look at theirs BLK/Shooting Fouls:
Alex Len 46 blocks 40 SF (1.15)
Myles Turner 73 blocks 48 SF (1.52)
Rudy Gobert 81 blocks 47 SF (1.72)
Anthony Davis 82 blocks 24 SF (3.41)
How about true rim protection?
Rudy Gobert 11.1 DFGA 42.5%
Myles Turner 9.6 DFGA 51%
Anthony Davis 7.3 DFGA 47.3%
Alex Len 6.6 DFGA 46.5%
The only one in this list who has a better TRB% than Len is Rudy Gobert.
I was very skeptical at first but it's hard to think that he isnt going to get paid.
It's nice that he's adjusting on offense too: less jumpers (-11%) and more opportunities below the rim (+12%)
Saberestar wrote:Gambo was talking yesterday about our future at the C position.
He said that we are gonna have only two centers next season for sure. Three options out there and our FO will need to choose:
Chandler/Len
Chandler/Williams
Len/Williams
He has heard that Williams wants badly to be here and that his contract can be around $12M/3 years.
He added that he is loved by his teammates.
ginobiliflops wrote:Saberestar wrote:Gambo was talking yesterday about our future at the C position.
He said that we are gonna have only two centers next season for sure. Three options out there and our FO will need to choose:
Chandler/Len
Chandler/Williams
Len/Williams
He has heard that Williams wants badly to be here and that his contract can be around $12M/3 years.
He added that he is loved by his teammates.
Hmm. I think Williams is a lock considering his ties, fit and value so it comes down to Chandler or Len. I think the answer relies upon what Len wants and if we are truly going to compete for a title next year or not.
bwgood77 wrote:kennydorglas wrote:I posted few weeks ago some metric called "RUSSELL" (measures quality of the blocks = leads to a Def Rebound).
I guess no one cared to update that list so I did it by myself with our players:
Alex Len 46 blocks 25 RUSSELL (54%)
Tyson Chandler 9 blocks 5 RUSSELL (55%)
Marquese Chriss 15 blocks 6 RUSSELL (40%)
Dragan Bender 9 blocks 2 RUSSELL (22%)
fun tidbit: Devin Booker has 8 blocks 7 RUSSELL.
Is this Alex numbers any good? Let's see:
He's 4th in the league in BLOCK% (5.8), so I compared his numbers with the 3 guys on top of him in this stat (Myles Turner, Rudy Gobert and Anthony Davis)
Myles Turner 73 blocks 31 RUSSELL (42%)
Rudy Gobert 81 blocks 44 RUSSELL (54%)
Anthony Davis 82 blocks 49 RUSSELL (60%)
Not bad, right?
He needs to manage his fouls better tho. Took a look at theirs BLK/Shooting Fouls:
Alex Len 46 blocks 40 SF (1.15)
Myles Turner 73 blocks 48 SF (1.52)
Rudy Gobert 81 blocks 47 SF (1.72)
Anthony Davis 82 blocks 24 SF (3.41)
How about true rim protection?
Rudy Gobert 11.1 DFGA 42.5%
Myles Turner 9.6 DFGA 51%
Anthony Davis 7.3 DFGA 47.3%
Alex Len 6.6 DFGA 46.5%
The only one in this list who has a better TRB% than Len is Rudy Gobert.
I was very skeptical at first but it's hard to think that he isnt going to get paid.
It's nice that he's adjusting on offense too: less jumpers (-11%) and more opportunities below the rim (+12%)
Do you have an update on these numbers?
Saberestar wrote:Gambo was talking yesterday about our future at the C position.
He said that we are gonna have only two centers next season for sure. Three options out there and our FO will need to choose:
Chandler/Len
Chandler/Williams
Len/Williams
He has heard that Williams wants badly to be here and that his contract can be around $12M/3 years.
He added that he is loved by his teammates.
LukasBMW wrote:I'd keep Len at $10 mil a year. Either $32m over 3 years or $40 million over 4 years on front loaded deals.
cosmofizzo wrote:LukasBMW wrote:I'd keep Len at $10 mil a year. Either $32m over 3 years or $40 million over 4 years on front loaded deals.
I'm not sold anymore. He's not better than Chandler, and Chandler adds intangibles to our group. Williams produces more. We could draft a center with a higher ceiling, given our diminished expectations for Alex. So what's the point? I'm ready to move on.
Thanks for freeing my heart, Big Sauce.
cosmofizzo wrote:How many teams have a young center that can guard Embiid and Drummond? My guess is two, maybe three - us, Utah and Denver. If Porzingis is a center, that's another. Haven't watched enough of Capella - someone will have to tell me if he's strong enough to be in this category.
That's just not very many. We're all underestimating what we have in Alex - until recently, myself included. He's looked great this season.
cosmofizzo wrote:I think that likely had to do with tired legs. He'd been in the game... what, 34 minutes to that point?
The simple truth about Alex is that if he could make his shots, he'd be a max player. Heck, if he could just draw fouls more often when he went up near the rim, he'd be a top 10 center.
Even if he doesn't blow us away these last 25 games, I think he'd still be a good rotation piece for us next season. Just let him play Bogut's role - 16-18 MPG as a starter. Then use Dragan, Chriss and Williams at center, depending on matchups. That's worth a good $12 million per, I'd think.
cosmofizzo wrote:I think that's solid. One thing that's become clear over the stretch of games is that Williams cannot guard starting centers. He just doesn't have the height to do anything against them inside defensively.
LukasBMW wrote:Saberestar wrote:Gambo was talking yesterday about our future at the C position.
He said that we are gonna have only two centers next season for sure. Three options out there and our FO will need to choose:
Chandler/Len
Chandler/Williams
Len/Williams
He has heard that Williams wants badly to be here and that his contract can be around $12M/3 years.
He added that he is loved by his teammates.
$12 million over 3 years?
Or
$36 million ($12 mil a year for 3 years)?
If it is $12 million over 3 years, then sign me up!
I'd keep Len at $10 mil a year. Either $32m over 3 years or $40 million over 4 years on front loaded deals.
bwgood77 wrote:cosmofizzo wrote:LukasBMW wrote:I'd keep Len at $10 mil a year. Either $32m over 3 years or $40 million over 4 years on front loaded deals.
I'm not sold anymore. He's not better than Chandler, and Chandler adds intangibles to our group. Williams produces more. We could draft a center with a higher ceiling, given our diminished expectations for Alex. So what's the point? I'm ready to move on.
Thanks for freeing my heart, Big Sauce.
How long do you think Chandler is going to be productive or even be in the NBA? Do you want to sign him to ANOTHER contract after his current one? Or draft another center who could take 3-5 years to develop, if a guy we draft develops at all?
bwgood77 wrote:cosmofizzo wrote:LukasBMW wrote:I'd keep Len at $10 mil a year. Either $32m over 3 years or $40 million over 4 years on front loaded deals.
I'm not sold anymore. He's not better than Chandler, and Chandler adds intangibles to our group. Williams produces more. We could draft a center with a higher ceiling, given our diminished expectations for Alex. So what's the point? I'm ready to move on.
Thanks for freeing my heart, Big Sauce.
How long do you think Chandler is going to be productive or even be in the NBA? Do you want to sign him to ANOTHER contract after his current one? Or draft another center who could take 3-5 years to develop, if a guy we draft develops at all?
As for what's the point, look two posts up from yours. He still ranks among elite company in blocks.Spoiler:
Saberestar wrote:bwgood77 wrote:cosmofizzo wrote:
I'm not sold anymore. He's not better than Chandler, and Chandler adds intangibles to our group. Williams produces more. We could draft a center with a higher ceiling, given our diminished expectations for Alex. So what's the point? I'm ready to move on.
Thanks for freeing my heart, Big Sauce.
How long do you think Chandler is going to be productive or even be in the NBA? Do you want to sign him to ANOTHER contract after his current one? Or draft another center who could take 3-5 years to develop, if a guy we draft develops at all?
I think that our starting frontcourt needs to be Bender and Chriss. Chriss can defend a lot of centers already, and after the summer he is gonna be stronger.
I want Williams on the roster next season absolutely for sure. He is a local guy who is a monster rebounding and hustling...we don't have another player like that on the team.
With him on the roster I would be comfortable with Bender and Chriss starting the game because we will have a total different player waiting on the bench if we need more rebounding and strength in the paint. And we will have Dudley at the PF position too.
I really don't care too much if we have Chandler or Len on the roster for next season. Both are good enough to play some minutes coming from the bench and both have been ealthy all season long. We just need to pick one.
I don't see any problem with one of them on the team for insurance, but I want to start and play Chriss and Bender big minutes to provide great spacing, mobility and better passing to the team.
lilfishi22 wrote:bwgood77 wrote:cosmofizzo wrote:
I'm not sold anymore. He's not better than Chandler, and Chandler adds intangibles to our group. Williams produces more. We could draft a center with a higher ceiling, given our diminished expectations for Alex. So what's the point? I'm ready to move on.
Thanks for freeing my heart, Big Sauce.
How long do you think Chandler is going to be productive or even be in the NBA? Do you want to sign him to ANOTHER contract after his current one? Or draft another center who could take 3-5 years to develop, if a guy we draft develops at all?
As for what's the point, look two posts up from yours. He still ranks among elite company in blocks.Spoiler:
Chandler shouldn't factor into whether we resign Len or not. My view is that Chandler is going to be moved this offseason anyway so it doesn't make sense to still consider Chandler as part of the team next season.
Len's post-AS performance has been utterly disappointing despite getting the starting role and really no other challengers for that role. But he's been playing terribly and Williams have come out of nowhere to take his minutes. That is not a good look for a former 5th pick with all the tools and now the opportunity to show he's worth a big deal. Thus far, he hasn't shown he's worth $15m+ a year as I was expecting. Not to say Williams has more potential than Len but he's certainly made not resigning Len an option. We still need a starting C but we don't need to pay Len like he's a starting C if we can keep things together with Bender/Williams/Chriss until we do get a proper starting C or if Bender/Chriss makes a case to be a starting C.
bwgood77 wrote:cosmofizzo wrote:LukasBMW wrote:I'd keep Len at $10 mil a year. Either $32m over 3 years or $40 million over 4 years on front loaded deals.
I'm not sold anymore. He's not better than Chandler, and Chandler adds intangibles to our group. Williams produces more. We could draft a center with a higher ceiling, given our diminished expectations for Alex. So what's the point? I'm ready to move on.
Thanks for freeing my heart, Big Sauce.
How long do you think Chandler is going to be productive or even be in the NBA? Do you want to sign him to ANOTHER contract after his current one? Or draft another center who could take 3-5 years to develop, if a guy we draft develops at all?
As for what's the point, look two posts up from yours. He still ranks among elite company in blocks.
You change your tune on Len after a few nice games from Williams. A little over two months ago....cosmofizzo wrote:How many teams have a young center that can guard Embiid and Drummond? My guess is two, maybe three - us, Utah and Denver. If Porzingis is a center, that's another. Haven't watched enough of Capella - someone will have to tell me if he's strong enough to be in this category.
That's just not very many. We're all underestimating what we have in Alex - until recently, myself included. He's looked great this season.
viewtopic.php?f=27&t=1341376&start=160#p50810518
This is a week ago:cosmofizzo wrote:I think that likely had to do with tired legs. He'd been in the game... what, 34 minutes to that point?
The simple truth about Alex is that if he could make his shots, he'd be a max player. Heck, if he could just draw fouls more often when he went up near the rim, he'd be a top 10 center.
Even if he doesn't blow us away these last 25 games, I think he'd still be a good rotation piece for us next season. Just let him play Bogut's role - 16-18 MPG as a starter. Then use Dragan, Chriss and Williams at center, depending on matchups. That's worth a good $12 million per, I'd think.
viewtopic.php?f=27&t=1341376&start=220#p53090509
This is less than a week ago:cosmofizzo wrote:I think that's solid. One thing that's become clear over the stretch of games is that Williams cannot guard starting centers. He just doesn't have the height to do anything against them inside defensively.
viewtopic.php?f=27&t=1341376&start=220#p53124316
