Tankapolooza: Draft Lottery Odds/Watch thread

[fendilim]

Updated. The Lakers will not be out-tanked by Phoenix and I've made my peace with the likelihood of us getting 2 2nd round picks. I don't see why we couldn't get a single unprotected first from the team receiving OUR BEST PLAYER and the THE BEST PLAYER IN THE DEAL. I'll never be able to wrap my mind around that one, but whatever.

Anyways, we might be able to sneak into the top 3. I maintain that the Magic are not tanking but simply are not good. We are playing the guys that were supposed to turn us into a playoff team. That's pathetic.

Reason not obvious when dwight left them after one year?

[JF5]

There is about a zero chance this team has in getting these big name free agents like Butler and company.

No state tax. An ownership group proven to go WAY over the cap. A modern facility with full training capacity. Orlando does have assets.

How many times we hear this and nothing happens when players can go to teams that are already winning.

Come on man... drsd has a point... I mean it is the year 2000 right?

[OrlChamps2030]

There is about a zero chance this team has in getting these big name free agents like Butler and company.

No state tax. An ownership group proven to go WAY over the cap. A modern facility with full training capacity. Orlando does have assets.

How many times we hear this and nothing happens when players can go to teams that are already winning.

KD is a free agent this offseason

You never know

[Bensational]

If we land outside the top 3, and we feel one of the top 3 are surefire stars, then we need to package our pick with some of our guys to move up. Simple as that.

If Boston slips to #3, would they do Vuc + our pick to swap places?

We need to take a punt on consolidating our tier 3 guys in an effort to land a top tier guy.

[shadrock]

Deleted post

[The Other Ankle]

Slotted in right now most likely landing the 6th pick and just going to have to pray we get a jump into the top 3. Going to be fun on June 25th or whenever they drop the ping pong balls.

It will be difficult but hopefully we drop all 3 on the west game road trip, that'd give us some breathing room on the Kings and help vs. the Suns. We may knock off Charlotte, Philly is a toss up on the 20th, I'd imagine we toast the Raptors in Toronto, hope for a split with the Nets, and then schedule in one more random win for the rest of the season and that should do us.

Looks like 4-7 more wins to go. Possibly going to wind up 8 games worse than last season, how embarrassing. A 27 win season should net us 5th I think. Out of the last 10 years, only one year 27 wins would have been not 5th pick.

We actually only favored in 2 more games this entire season on 538.

Predictions are a 3 way tie for 3rd with us, Philly, and Phoenix at 29 wins right now. Lakers in 2nd with 25 and Brooklyn at 17.

Phoenix is up by 11 midway through the third on Washington and has won three straight. If they win tonight, they will project to pass us easily.

[fendilim]

Slotted in right now most likely landing the 6th pick and just going to have to pray we get a jump into the top 3. Going to be fun on June 25th or whenever they drop the ping pong balls.

It will be difficult but hopefully we drop all 3 on the west game road trip, that'd give us some breathing room on the Kings and help vs. the Suns. We may knock off Charlotte, Philly is a toss up on the 20th, I'd imagine we toast the Raptors in Toronto, hope for a split with the Nets, and then schedule in one more random win for the rest of the season and that should do us.

Looks like 4-7 more wins to go. Possibly going to wind up 8 games worse than last season, how embarrassing. A 27 win season should net us 5th I think. Out of the last 10 years, only one year 27 wins would have been not 5th pick.

We actually only favored in 2 more games this entire season on 538.

Predictions are a 3 way tie for 3rd with us, Philly, and Phoenix at 29 wins right now. Lakers in 2nd with 25 and Brooklyn at 17.

Phoenix is up by 11 midway through the third on Washington and has won three straight. If they win tonight, they will project to pass us easily.

Tenporary. This team has more fight than them, imo.

[shadrock]

Slotted in right now most likely landing the 6th pick and just going to have to pray we get a jump into the top 3. Going to be fun on June 25th or whenever they drop the ping pong balls.

It will be difficult but hopefully we drop all 3 on the west game road trip, that'd give us some breathing room on the Kings and help vs. the Suns. We may knock off Charlotte, Philly is a toss up on the 20th, I'd imagine we toast the Raptors in Toronto, hope for a split with the Nets, and then schedule in one more random win for the rest of the season and that should do us.

Looks like 4-7 more wins to go. Possibly going to wind up 8 games worse than last season, how embarrassing. A 27 win season should net us 5th I think. Out of the last 10 years, only one year 27 wins would have been not 5th pick.

We actually only favored in 2 more games this entire season on 538.

Predictions are a 3 way tie for 3rd with us, Philly, and Phoenix at 29 wins right now. Lakers in 2nd with 25 and Brooklyn at 17.

Phoenix is up by 11 midway through the third on Washington and has won three straight. If they win tonight, they will project to pass us easily.

Tenporary. This team has more fight than them, imo.

Phoenix didn't win, which sucks, but I'm still very optimistic that we will finish below them in the standings. The next 5 games for each team is the crucial stretch. Phx play some very winnable games, whereas most of our games are tough. Todays phx loss does hurt a bit though.

[cedric76]

Lal still have 44% chances to lose their pick and they can't improve those chances.

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[Baka_La Flame]

The way I see it playing out

1.Nets(Celtics)
2.Lakers
3.Suns
4.Sixers
5.Kings
6.Magic
7.Wolves
8.Knicks
9.Pelicans(Kings)
10.Mavs
11.Hornets
12.Blazers
13.Bucks
14.Bulls

[BadMofoPimp]

No state tax. An ownership group proven to go WAY over the cap. A modern facility with full training capacity. Orlando does have assets.

How many times we hear this and nothing happens when players can go to teams that are already winning.

Come on man... drsd has a point... I mean it is the year 2000 right?

Unless the Magic start proving they can provide a winning atmosphere, no top flight free agents will come here. After 5 straight losing seasons, nobody of great value wants to join a losing culture.

[BadMofoPimp]

The way I see it playing out

1.Nets(Celtics)
2.Lakers
3.Suns
4.Sixers
5.Kings
6.Magic
7.Wolves
8.Knicks
9.Pelicans(Kings)
10.Mavs
11.Hornets
12.Blazers
13.Bucks
14.Bulls

This is about what I was thinking will happen.

[Viper1500]

The way I see it playing out

1.Nets(Celtics)
2.Lakers
3.Suns
4.Sixers
5.Kings
6.Magic
7.Wolves
8.Knicks
9.Pelicans(Kings)
10.Mavs
11.Hornets
12.Blazers
13.Bucks
14.Bulls

I agree but a lot depends of the outcome of the games we play versus Sac/philly and even Phoenix.


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[KingRobb02]

If I'm in conspiracy theory mode, I think it shakes out like this:

1. LA wins the lottery and takes Ball (No matter how good he is, this will be a story for at least 2 years)
2. Orlando jumps up to 2 and takes Jackson or some other guy who combines size with athleticism, people overreact
3. Boston takes Fultz and Danny Ainge leaks stories about how he could have traded the pick for Draymond + Klay but didn't
4. Kings take Tatum and he makes the Okafor face as he holds up his jersey
5. Suns take Isaac. No one really has an opinion on ESPN's panel so they just talk about his suit
6. Philly picks Dennis Smith, he immediately announces he will sit out for year to rest an inflamed knee
7. Kings take Frank Ntilikina, people scratch their heads
8. Knicks take Fox and Reggie Rose immediately starts tweeting about how much he hated New York anyway.

[Def Swami]

Read on Twitter

[PrimeThyme]

Read on Twitter

Bulls trying to derail our tank

[NEM]

Updated. The Lakers will not be out-tanked by Phoenix and I've made my peace with the likelihood of us getting 2 2nd round picks. I don't see why we couldn't get a single unprotected first from the team receiving OUR BEST PLAYER and the THE BEST PLAYER IN THE DEAL. I'll never be able to wrap my mind around that one, but whatever.

Anyways, we might be able to sneak into the top 3. I maintain that the Magic are not tanking but simply are not good. We are playing the guys that were supposed to turn us into a playoff team. That's pathetic.

Reason not obvious when dwight left them after one year?

No, because he was all smiles when he was checking out their trophies and living in LA during his rehab. They were supposedly one of two teams (BKN being the other) where he would re-sign. That's why we didn't take the Rockets offer, or Dallas, or any other team. We should have been able to get an unprotected first considering the Lakers were supposed to be championship contenders for years. No one saw this coming from them. However, I'm not surprised considering Hennigan has never been able to get an unprotected first for any of our guys. The first always has to be "worst of" or "top 3 protected." It just further proves his ineptitude as an NBA GM.

[Blue_and_Whte]

Fine by me. Tatum/Isaac/DSJ. We're so close to the finish line.. I can smell it. I would be just as happy if the pick was packaged in a trade for Butler/PG. preferably Butler because he's locked into his current deal for a few more years. If Wade walks this summer the Evan becomes enticing to the Bulls. Vuc would probable have to go to a third team where the assets go to the Bulls. Maybe we can get them Crowder from Bos.


Hill or Teague/Payton/Augustine
Ross/Meeks/Wilcox
Butler/Hezonja/FA
Gordon/FA/Motley
Biyombo/Giles/Zimmerman

Gordon and Biyombo at the 4 and 5... So much for spacing.

Any starting 5 featuring those two will lead us to the lottery. Neither is a starter on a playoff team.

I understand but people said the same thing about Dedmon and now he's the starting center for the title contending Spurs. I'm talking from the perspective of fit. I said the same damn thing in the offseason and everyone laughed it off talking about "Bash Bros yo." You cant start Payton, AG, and Biyombo long term and expect to get the spacing needed to win in the NBA. Each of those guys has to be augmented with elite scoring talent. Thats why when one or two of our guys have a great scoring game, Payton also has a good game. He, AG, and Biyombo compliment elite talent. I believe any team is in the lottery if they're depending on any of those guys to carry them, but if they have elite talent around them I think they would contribute to a playoff team.

[Blue_and_Whte]

Updated. The Lakers will not be out-tanked by Phoenix and I've made my peace with the likelihood of us getting 2 2nd round picks. I don't see why we couldn't get a single unprotected first from the team receiving OUR BEST PLAYER and the THE BEST PLAYER IN THE DEAL. I'll never be able to wrap my mind around that one, but whatever.

Anyways, we might be able to sneak into the top 3. I maintain that the Magic are not tanking but simply are not good. We are playing the guys that were supposed to turn us into a playoff team. That's pathetic.

Reason not obvious when dwight left them after one year?

No, because he was all smiles when he was checking out their trophies and living in LA during his rehab. They were supposedly one of two teams (BKN being the other) where he would re-sign. That's why we didn't take the Rockets offer, or Dallas, or any other team. We should have been able to get an unprotected first considering the Lakers were supposed to be championship contenders for years. No one saw this coming from them. However, I'm not surprised considering Hennigan has never been able to get an unprotected first for any of our guys. The first always has to be "worst of" or "top 3 protected." It just further proves his ineptitude as an NBA GM.

Dwight's pending UFA is the reason why we didnt get an unprotected first. You're not going to the full value when trading away a disgruntled star anyway, even less if that player verbally states that he'll only sign for two teams and he's an UFA the following year. I'm sure there's probably an exception to the norm out there somewhere, but no situation is the same.

[The Other Ankle]

Still fairly confident that we will catch Phoenix. They have actually been playing well recently.

I've noticed a lot of conflation related to the final standings and draft position. The top three spots are drawn in the lottery, so the teams with the worst records to not own them. This seems obvious, but there is lots of talk about "getting bumped" from second or whatever. This is wrong. No one has 1, 2, or 3 until after the lottery and you can't get "bumped" into these spots. Fourth is the first draft position that will be inherited from the playing record. Finishing third-worst would literally only guarantee drafting 6th or better (with 5th or better being a virtual mathematical lock due to the top three spots containing at least one team with a bottom 3 record).

Final standings just determine your worst-case draft spot and your odds of drawing into the top 3.