Most Improved Player: Otto or Brad?

Dark Faze · Post #1 » by **Dark Faze** » Fri Mar 10, 2017 2:58 pm

Common concensus was Otto for a while, but I'm not sure that it isn't Brad now. His leap is insane.

Post #2 » by **nate33** » Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:09 pm

It's really close, but I'd give it to Beal.

Beal's improvement from last year:
PER: 15.5 to 20.3
ORtg: 103 to 118
WS/48: .076 to .161
Pts/100: 27.3 to 32.6
USG%: 25.3 to 26.4

Porter's improvement from last year:
PER: 14.5 to 17.5
ORtg: 112 to 129
WS/48: .119 to .180
Pts/100: 18.7 to 20.6
USG%: 16.2 to 15.1

Both made dramatic improvements in efficiency, but Beal did so with a notable uptick in usage. That's truly remarkable. Porter's usage actually dropped from last year. He's gotten even better at avoiding "bad possessions", but he's not really tacking on additional "good possessions". I don't want to come across like I'm denigrating Porter though. He has been fantastic. His ORtg is straight up ridiculous.

Meliorus · Post #3 » by **Meliorus** » Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:25 pm

Beal and it's not even close. Otto was already good last year but Beal was easily replaceable (and always injured). Now Beal is an incredibly efficient, high-volume offensive player.

Post #4 » by **nate33** » Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:35 pm

There are only 10 players in the league that average over 20 points per game with a TS% over 60%. Beal is one of them.

It's really a shame he didn't make the All Star game, but given his numbers at the time it wasn't all that surprising. With his play over the last two months, you could now argue that he has moved ahead of Kemba Walker and Kyrie Irving, and is in a tie with DeRozan for the 4th best guard in the East. Only Lowry, Wall and Thomas are clearly better.

Also, it's worth noting that he had a slow start plus a few games playing on a gimpy hamstring. If you ignore his first 9 games and just look at the last 50, he is averaging 23.9 points per game with a TS% of .620. That makes him legitimately one of the top 6 or 7 scorers in the league.

tontoz · Post #5 » by **tontoz** » Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:37 pm

I would give it to Beal. Otto was already on a clear uptrend and didn't have the playing opportunities his 1st two seasons that Beal had.

Beal's breakout is far more dramatic with very little foreshadowing. He was a starter playing heavy minutes from day 1 unlike Otto. I still think he is a legit MIP candidate. Giannis is still probably the leading candidate but he has leveled off a bit.

payitforward · Post #6 » by **payitforward** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:04 pm

tontoz wrote:I would give it to Beal. Otto was already on a clear uptrend and didn't have the playing opportunities his 1st two seasons that Beal had.

Beal's breakout is far more dramatic with very little foreshadowing. He was a starter playing heavy minutes from day 1 unlike Otto. I still think he is a legit MIP candidate. Giannis is still probably the leading candidate but he has leveled off a bit.

Agreed -- & I also agree that it isn't close at all. Porter is continuing his development in a terrific way, but his play this year makes sense off his play last year.

Beal's play this year is another matter altogether. Especially the last 2 months have been beyond what anyone could have hoped for -- let alone predicted.

CobraCommander · Post #7 » by **CobraCommander** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:25 pm

tontoz wrote:I would give it to Beal. Otto was already on a clear uptrend and didn't have the playing opportunities his 1st two seasons that Beal had.

Beal's breakout is far more dramatic with very little foreshadowing. He was a starter playing heavy minutes from day 1 unlike Otto. I still think he is a legit MIP candidate. Giannis is still probably the leading candidate but he has leveled off a bit.

I would give it to Beal...but the insane part of this is that it is a debatable point. Beal is avg 22+ points a game and there is some debate that Otto "Shaqtin a fool" Porter may have made as much of an improvement as Beal!?!?!? That's a huge surprise and an amazing win for the Wizards. I also hate to say it (hope Mil aint around) it shows that Brooks might be the coach that make EG look like a legit GM. but on subject...porter has improved a ton but Beal's one of the best guards in the league. Porter aint close to being one of the best at his position...give it to Beal

tontoz · Post #8 » by **tontoz** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:32 pm

The 3 spot is much stronger than the 2 right now. The top 3s in the league are Lebron/Butler/Giannis/Durant/Leonard. At the 2 you have Harden/Beal/Derozen and ???.

J-Ves · Post #9 » by **J-Ves** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:41 pm

It's easily Beal. He's gone from average/ disappointment in his first 4 years to borderline MVP candidate in his 5th. In his past 20 games he's averaging 26.3 ppg on 67 TS%. That's some KD like efficiency/usage and 20 games is a pretty decent sample size.

Porter is an excellent 3rd banana, but will probably never shoot enough to average 20+ points per game. Plus, as others have pointed out, Porter was very good last year so his improvement isn't as sharp as Beal's

J-Ves · Post #10 » by **J-Ves** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:02 pm

tontoz wrote:The 3 spot is much stronger than the 2 right now. The top 3s in the league are Lebron/Butler/Giannis/Durant/Leonard. At the 2 you have Harden/Beal/Derozen and ???.

KCP, Booker, Lavine, CJ McCollum, Klay Thomson. The SG position has been hurting for a while now, but it feels like the position has been getting restocked with top end talent in recent years. I think the next position to go out of style is PF. Teams are basically playing 2 SFs at the forward spots nowadays and what used to be considered a PF is getting pushed to the center position like AD and Towns.

stevemcqueen1 · Post #11 » by **stevemcqueen1** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:30 pm

I think SG is:

1 - Harden

Big drop

2 - Beal
3 - Thompson

Bit of a drop

4 - DeRozan

Huge drop

5 - McCollum/KCP

dckingsfan · Post #12 » by **dckingsfan** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 2:27 pm

stevemcqueen1 wrote:I think SG is:

1 - Harden

Big drop

2 - Beal
3 - Thompson

Bit of a drop

4 - DeRozan

Huge drop

5 - McCollum/KCP

Isn't Harden a PG now in the Rocket's offense?

stevemcqueen1 · Post #13 » by **stevemcqueen1** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 2:54 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
stevemcqueen1 wrote:I think SG is:

1 - Harden

Big drop

2 - Beal
3 - Thompson

Bit of a drop

4 - DeRozan

Huge drop

5 - McCollum/KCP

Isn't Harden a PG now in the Rocket's offense?

He defies categorization. He plays lead guard in their system, but he plays with Patrick Beverly, who is a PG. The Rockets have a weird dynamic where their PG is their stopper and defensive specialist and their SG is their scorer and facilitator. D'Antoni made the natural move of taking the ball from Beverly's hands and running the offense through Harden. Kind of reminds me of the dynamic of Eric Snow at PG and Iverson at SG even though Iverson was the lead guard in that offense and Snow was the stopper. Except Harden is a far better passer than AI was and is capable of facilitating like a pure PG.

I have no problem categorizing Harden as a PG this season based on his offensive role. If you do, Beal becomes the best SG in the league.