Lonzo Ball

[Marcus]

I don't see Ball's game translating well into the NBA. He's going to be one of those great prospects whose game got exposed when entering the NBA. He might last a few seasons but I see him struggling against real NBA talent. His movements to me are robotic and a bit too textbook. I credit his work ethic and IQ for getting him this far. He's great for college, but unfortunately he's not a natural like these nba types.

Great players make things look effortless. When I watch Ball it's not effortless for him. And against lengthy, quick, and strong players he's going to struggle and be humbled quick. His slow and awkward shot release won't help his game. I think his ego is a bit much right now too, so I don't think he'll cope well being a role player in the NBA which is why I don't see him lasting long. Truth be told I see him as a Jeremy Lin type of player. Which is not bad, LIn got paid and Ball gonna get paid regardless. But Ball won't be an all star and he probably will be 2nd string or worse.

I was hearing you out in the first paragraph because there are plenty of flaws in his game and legit reasons for why/how he could bust relative to where he'll be drafted. But then you reverted to the issues everyone else brings up. The shot, which hasn't been a problem for him. and his ego, which I have to ask, where have you seen any signs of an ego problem from Lonzo?

His shot hasn't been a problem for him at the college level. Look college to NBA is a huge gap...even Division 1 college agreed? He seems quick enough to get separation but against these quicker, lengthy NBA players his shot will be a problem. Not to say he can't make shots, but he'll struggle to create for himself with that slow awkward release of his.

Ego..well I've read some articles and have seen some videos. But his ego has swelled from being a top 3 pick consideration I'm guessing. He's a more athletic Jeremy Lin to me. There will be a team that gives him a chance. I know the Lakers recruitment team is top notch so I'm certain they will pass on him if they keep their top 3 pick.

Ball is a wasted high pick. He's a guy that peaked in college. It's downhill from college. Many good guys who had great college careers take a huge dive when they get to the NBA. Ball looks to be one of those guys at first glance.

The shot would be a problem for him if his game was more of a one on one create his own look type of game. But since it isn't the way he shoots isn't an issue because the results are money. I said this before but ball and player movement (something he excels at) creates open looks for those who can't in the NBA. When shooters like Curry, Thompson, Korver, Redick who run around with legit bullseyes on their back can find a solid number of wide open looks nightly and get shots off no reason Lonzo couldn't. He doesn't force shots, takes open looks, and is well aware of time and space for his shot.

These articles and videos I'm gonna need to be linked to. The fact that you said you're guessing about his ego blowing up because of top pick consideration tells me you might not have the evidence you claim to. Not to be combative or anything I just haven't seen or heard anything from or about the kid that screams problem. If you're flagging him for the stuff his dad says then we're having a different conversation but that doesn't make Lonzo the problem.

His handle is lazy and nowhere near league ready. Can't create for himself with it right now. He shys from contact on both sides of the ball. Dies on screens. Defense can be absent at times. Doesn't run the PnR as textbook as the other guards in the class. Not a freak athlete. Might not have the attack mindset you need if you want a scoring lead guard on your team. If you're an organization that sees his dad as a problem you might not want to touch him. See, plenty of things to flag him for as a prospect. Tons of questions. The stuff you're saying comes off as a reach strictly because you don't like him though. Which is fine too, he has a hate it or love it game. Just be original about your gripes is all.

[madmaxmedia]

He seems easily the most down-to-earth one of the family, and his game has reflected that all year. It's the youngest one that might run into problems because of his ego in a few years.

[Kolkmania]

The shot would be a problem for him if his game was more of a one on one create his own look type of game. But since it isn't the way he shoots isn't an issue because the results are money. I said this before but ball and player movement (something he excels at) creates open looks for those who can't in the NBA. When shooters like Curry, Thompson, Korver, Redick who run around with legit bullseyes on their back can find a solid number of wide open looks nightly and get shots off no reason Lonzo couldn't. He doesn't force shots, takes open looks, and is well aware of time and space for his shot.

What do you think of Ball's shotchart? One thing that pops out is his relatively low shot frequency in the corners (and reduced efficiency), especially the right corner, which is the harder shot for Ball. If he's primarily used as an off-ball player, running around screens, this might be an indication of some constraints. Since the corner 3 ball is one of the most efficient shots it would hurt his versatility as an off-ball player.

Read on Twitter

For comparison I uploaded some shotcharts of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, JJ Redick and Kyle Korver of their 2015/2016 seasons.



One reason for the lack of his corner three frequency is the amount of time Ball spends at the top of the key, swinging the ball to Holiday, Hamilton, etc.
Another possibility might be the amount of space he uses with his legs, he perfectly hops into a jump shot, but his legs swing an unusual distance forward. This makes his contested shots much more difficult, since the space needed for his feet is occupied by the defender. Unlike the shots at the top of the key, Ball does not have the space to step backwards to create his own space. This could be worrisome.

What do you think, simply a result of the UCLA's offensive sets or is Lonzo Ball limited, not by his shooting form, but his footwork during his shots?

[Marcus]

The shot would be a problem for him if his game was more of a one on one create his own look type of game. But since it isn't the way he shoots isn't an issue because the results are money. I said this before but ball and player movement (something he excels at) creates open looks for those who can't in the NBA. When shooters like Curry, Thompson, Korver, Redick who run around with legit bullseyes on their back can find a solid number of wide open looks nightly and get shots off no reason Lonzo couldn't. He doesn't force shots, takes open looks, and is well aware of time and space for his shot.

What do you think of Ball's shotchart? One thing that pops out is his relatively low shot frequency in the corners (and reduced efficiency), especially the right corner, which is the harder shot for Ball. If he's primarily used as an off-ball player, running around screens, this might be an indication of some constraints. Since the corner 3 ball is one of the most efficient shots it would hurt his versatility as an off-ball player.

Read on Twitter

For comparison I uploaded some shotcharts of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, JJ Redick and Kyle Korver of their 2015/2016 seasons.



One reason for the lack of his corner three frequency is the amount of time Ball spends at the top of the key, swinging the ball to Holiday, Hamilton, etc.
Another possibility might be the amount of space he uses with his legs, he perfectly hops into a jump shot, but his legs swing an unusual distance forward. This makes his contested shots much more difficult, since the space needed for his feet is occupied by the defender. Unlike the shots at the top of the key, Ball does not have the space to step backwards to create his own space. This could be worrisome.

What do you think, simply a result of the UCLA's offensive sets or is Lonzo Ball limited, not by his shooting form, but his footwork during his shots?

I think its where he plays on the floor during those sets and those corners being occupied by Hamilton and Alford. I don't know their shot charts but I'd guess Hamilton takes a pretty good number of corner threes. Zo is usually up top to facilitate and when he spreads it's typically for Holiday/Leaf to create off ISO up top. He seems to hook up quite a bit with Aaron for his lob looks. I don't think his shooting form or how he lands means anything in terms of getting off a corner look. He's gotten off looks with folks in his jump space (he usually takes a dive when coming down) so I don't think its something that's worth worrying about or something that bothers him. To your point with the names I mentioned, Curry is the only one given responsibility of playing up top to create for others and his responsibility to do so is lessened because of Draymond's ability to pass which frees Steph for looks anywhere on the floor. Could be wrong, but I would think Kyrie's corner numbers might be higher than most players at his position as well with LeBron being a facilitator.

Long story short I don't think its a function of form I think its a function of role.

[Kolkmania]

The shot would be a problem for him if his game was more of a one on one create his own look type of game. But since it isn't the way he shoots isn't an issue because the results are money. I said this before but ball and player movement (something he excels at) creates open looks for those who can't in the NBA. When shooters like Curry, Thompson, Korver, Redick who run around with legit bullseyes on their back can find a solid number of wide open looks nightly and get shots off no reason Lonzo couldn't. He doesn't force shots, takes open looks, and is well aware of time and space for his shot.

What do you think of Ball's shotchart? One thing that pops out is his relatively low shot frequency in the corners (and reduced efficiency), especially the right corner, which is the harder shot for Ball. If he's primarily used as an off-ball player, running around screens, this might be an indication of some constraints. Since the corner 3 ball is one of the most efficient shots it would hurt his versatility as an off-ball player.

Read on Twitter

For comparison I uploaded some shotcharts of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, JJ Redick and Kyle Korver of their 2015/2016 seasons.



One reason for the lack of his corner three frequency is the amount of time Ball spends at the top of the key, swinging the ball to Holiday, Hamilton, etc.
Another possibility might be the amount of space he uses with his legs, he perfectly hops into a jump shot, but his legs swing an unusual distance forward. This makes his contested shots much more difficult, since the space needed for his feet is occupied by the defender. Unlike the shots at the top of the key, Ball does not have the space to step backwards to create his own space. This could be worrisome.

What do you think, simply a result of the UCLA's offensive sets or is Lonzo Ball limited, not by his shooting form, but his footwork during his shots?

I think its where he plays on the floor during those sets and those corners being occupied by Hamilton and Alford. I don't know their shot charts but I'd guess Hamilton takes a pretty good number of corner threes. Zo is usually up top to facilitate and when he spreads it's typically for Holiday/Leaf to create off ISO up top. He seems to hook up quite a bit with Aaron for his lob looks. I don't think his shooting form or how he lands means anything in terms of getting off a corner look. He's gotten off looks with folks in his jump space (he usually takes a dive when coming down) so I don't think its something that's worth worrying about or something that bothers him. To your point with the names I mentioned, Curry is the only one given responsibility of playing up top to create for others and his responsibility to do so is lessened because of Draymond's ability to pass which frees Steph for looks anywhere on the floor. Could be wrong, but I would think Kyrie's corner numbers might be higher than most players at his position as well with LeBron being a facilitator.

Long story short I don't think its a function of form I think its a function of role.

Valid point, Kyrie Irving indeed shot a high volume of 3 point shots. The small ratio of corner 3's is even more evident than the shortcharts of Kyle Lowry, Isaiah Thomas and John Wall, but that might be indeed a result of UCLA's offense. Nevertheless, it's worthwhile to monitor during his NBA career. I do think that defenders occupying his space for feet bothers him more than other elite off-ball shooters, don't have the numbers to back it up though.

[kennydorglas]

He seems easily the most down-to-earth one of the family, and his game has reflected that all year. It's the youngest one that might run into problems because of his ego in a few years.

Definitely agree with this.

[Mulhollanddrive]

The oldest one tends to get the brunt of it, who knows what goes on in private.

His dad wanted him to be Michael Jordan and Lonzo goes out of his way to not shoot mid-range shoots.

[kobe_vs_jordan]

The shot would be a problem for him if his game was more of a one on one create his own look type of game. But since it isn't the way he shoots isn't an issue because the results are money. I said this before but ball and player movement (something he excels at) creates open looks for those who can't in the NBA. When shooters like Curry, Thompson, Korver, Redick who run around with legit bullseyes on their back can find a solid number of wide open looks nightly and get shots off no reason Lonzo couldn't. He doesn't force shots, takes open looks, and is well aware of time and space for his shot.

What do you think of Ball's shotchart? One thing that pops out is his relatively low shot frequency in the corners (and reduced efficiency), especially the right corner, which is the harder shot for Ball. If he's primarily used as an off-ball player, running around screens, this might be an indication of some constraints. Since the corner 3 ball is one of the most efficient shots it would hurt his versatility as an off-ball player.

Read on Twitter

For comparison I uploaded some shotcharts of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, JJ Redick and Kyle Korver of their 2015/2016 seasons.



One reason for the lack of his corner three frequency is the amount of time Ball spends at the top of the key, swinging the ball to Holiday, Hamilton, etc.
Another possibility might be the amount of space he uses with his legs, he perfectly hops into a jump shot, but his legs swing an unusual distance forward. This makes his contested shots much more difficult, since the space needed for his feet is occupied by the defender. Unlike the shots at the top of the key, Ball does not have the space to step backwards to create his own space. This could be worrisome.

What do you think, simply a result of the UCLA's offensive sets or is Lonzo Ball limited, not by his shooting form, but his footwork during his shots?

I think comparing a Ball to three SGs and Curry isn't going to give you much relative data. Need somebody closer to his position / skillset far as being a primarily ball handler high volume three point shooter. Maybe players like Holiday and Lowry.

[Kolkmania]

The shot would be a problem for him if his game was more of a one on one create his own look type of game. But since it isn't the way he shoots isn't an issue because the results are money. I said this before but ball and player movement (something he excels at) creates open looks for those who can't in the NBA. When shooters like Curry, Thompson, Korver, Redick who run around with legit bullseyes on their back can find a solid number of wide open looks nightly and get shots off no reason Lonzo couldn't. He doesn't force shots, takes open looks, and is well aware of time and space for his shot.

What do you think of Ball's shotchart? One thing that pops out is his relatively low shot frequency in the corners (and reduced efficiency), especially the right corner, which is the harder shot for Ball. If he's primarily used as an off-ball player, running around screens, this might be an indication of some constraints. Since the corner 3 ball is one of the most efficient shots it would hurt his versatility as an off-ball player.

Read on Twitter

For comparison I uploaded some shotcharts of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, JJ Redick and Kyle Korver of their 2015/2016 seasons.



One reason for the lack of his corner three frequency is the amount of time Ball spends at the top of the key, swinging the ball to Holiday, Hamilton, etc.
Another possibility might be the amount of space he uses with his legs, he perfectly hops into a jump shot, but his legs swing an unusual distance forward. This makes his contested shots much more difficult, since the space needed for his feet is occupied by the defender. Unlike the shots at the top of the key, Ball does not have the space to step backwards to create his own space. This could be worrisome.

What do you think, simply a result of the UCLA's offensive sets or is Lonzo Ball limited, not by his shooting form, but his footwork during his shots?

I think comparing a Ball to three SGs and Curry isn't going to give you much relative data. Need somebody closer to his position / skillset far as being a primarily ball handler high volume three point shooter. Maybe players like Holiday and Lowry.

Well those players were chosen because Marcus named them as off-ball shooters, who get tons of open looks off screens. Personally I'm not sure if Ball is capable as a leading guard, so I imagine him as a wing in an offense with high emphasize on ball movement.

[PLO]

Ball doesn't take many corner 3s because with his low, slow shot he's too easy to guard there. Its an issue.

[PLO]

Im guessing this is in reference to what I just posted. The only reason I brought up Nash was to show a PG doesnt need to be able to drive by his man and get to the rim all the time to be an elite PG. Not saying they have similar styles of play.

The inabillity of Nash to get to the rim has nothing to do with him being an elite point guard. It's everything else that mathers.

I also could use that argument. I can't drive to the hoop. So can't Nash. It doesn't stop us from being elite point guards.

I'm not sure if you've watched any footage of Steve Nash, superb handle, able to get basically anywhere on the floor: one of the best 3 level PGs in the history of the game. The contrast between him and Ball is stark.

[PLO]

I've watched a lot of his games so yeah I've made my mind up; there's one thing driving from full court at the college level vs tired defenders vs driving from half court vs a set defense in the NBA as a pg, so my point still stands that he does not have the skills to be an NBA level starting point. He's a good player, good point guard? No. Another way to look at it is put him in replacing fultz at wash, I don't think he'd even in convo for top 15 without all that sweet spacing he gets from his own great team

I showed video evidence of him driving against a set defender with a good athletic defender on him. Also is ISO driving the go to skill on what makes a PG? He has the best vision and passing in this draft and hes the best shooter out of all the PGs as well, he also has the athleticism and has the best size as well. So since he doesnt play in a system that asks for a lot of 1 on 1 driving he is not considered a PG? Ball would be in the top 5 discussion no matter what school he went to.

I'm not arguing that he's not in the top 5 conversation; I just think there is quite a bit of his skill set that won't translate to the NBA. Agreed he has the best vision and passing in this draft; disagree about the shooting because I think his form is a big issue at the next level. When he's asked to play 1 on 1 he doesn't have an NBA level skillset; and he'll need those skills to play in the NBA at the point.

[Disposable Hero]

I've watched a lot of his games so yeah I've made my mind up; there's one thing driving from full court at the college level vs tired defenders vs driving from half court vs a set defense in the NBA as a pg, so my point still stands that he does not have the skills to be an NBA level starting point. He's a good player, good point guard? No. Another way to look at it is put him in replacing fultz at wash, I don't think he'd even in convo for top 15 without all that sweet spacing he gets from his own great team

I showed video evidence of him driving against a set defender with a good athletic defender on him. Also is ISO driving the go to skill on what makes a PG? He has the best vision and passing in this draft and hes the best shooter out of all the PGs as well, he also has the athleticism and has the best size as well. So since he doesnt play in a system that asks for a lot of 1 on 1 driving he is not considered a PG? Ball would be in the top 5 discussion no matter what school he went to.

I'm not arguing that he's not in the top 5 conversation; I just think there is quite a bit of his skill set that won't translate to the NBA. Agreed he has the best vision and passing in this draft; disagree about the shooting because I think his form is a big issue at the next level. When he's asked to play 1 on 1 he doesn't have an NBA level skillset; and he'll need those skills to play in the NBA at the point.

he has shown that skillset and he won't necessarily need those skills to be effective in the NBA. People have been saying he can't drive or has no mid range game and he took it upon himself to showcase those things towards the end of the season. You either missed that or choose to still believe he is incapable. But he's done it regardless.

[AdotSmoove]

The oldest one tends to get the brunt of it, who knows what goes on in private.

His dad wanted him to be Michael Jordan and Lonzo goes out of his way to not shoot mid-range shoots.

I wish there was a favorite button


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[PLO]

I showed video evidence of him driving against a set defender with a good athletic defender on him. Also is ISO driving the go to skill on what makes a PG? He has the best vision and passing in this draft and hes the best shooter out of all the PGs as well, he also has the athleticism and has the best size as well. So since he doesnt play in a system that asks for a lot of 1 on 1 driving he is not considered a PG? Ball would be in the top 5 discussion no matter what school he went to.

I'm not arguing that he's not in the top 5 conversation; I just think there is quite a bit of his skill set that won't translate to the NBA. Agreed he has the best vision and passing in this draft; disagree about the shooting because I think his form is a big issue at the next level. When he's asked to play 1 on 1 he doesn't have an NBA level skillset; and he'll need those skills to play in the NBA at the point.

he has shown that skillset and he won't necessarily need those skills to be effective in the NBA. People have been saying he can't drive or has no mid range game and he took it upon himself to showcase those things towards the end of the season. You either missed that or choose to still believe he is incapable. But he's done it regardless.

Well, despite my hyperbolic comments earlier in the thread it is true he can drive; the issue is whether he can drive against NBA level competition - I don't think he's shown any mid-range game at all so I disagree there. Compare his driving/handle to any of the top PG prospects of the last 10 years and he just doesn't stack up at all, let alone to the PGs in his own class. I think he's a very good talent, but I don't think he is a point guard in the NBA.

Also, I saw some comments earlier in the thread about switching Fultz into UCLA in place of Ball and Fultz wouldn't be as much as a positive for UCLA as Ball has been (which is very arguable), but that's the wrong way to look at it. Ball will be going to the NBA equivalent of Fultz's college team; so we should be looking at what would happen if Ball was on the Huskies where he would have to create a lot more of his own shot/action. Like I said, if Ball was on Wash its unlikely he would be top 15 in this draft because he wouldn't be able to show what he is strong at, given he's surrounded by some very strong talent at UCLA which showcases his superb vision.

Just to be clear: I do think he should be in the conversation for top 5; and in fact maybe the best spot for him to go is to the 6ers with Simmons doing ball-handling duties, but if a team gets him and expects him to run the point in the NBA, I think they are in for a rude shock next season.

[madmaxmedia]

The oldest one tends to get the brunt of it, who knows what goes on in private.

His dad wanted him to be Michael Jordan and Lonzo goes out of his way to not shoot mid-range shoots.

Yes, the oldest one usually does. But the hype train didn't really start until he was already in high school so I think he's much more grounded. OTOH the youngest one has grown up in the media circus, and seems more likely to have the ego. Lonzo genuinely plays the point guard position and looks to set up teammates, not sure if LaMelo does or will too.

Hopefully regardless of what goes on publicly or on the court, the parents are fundamentally good parents who really love their kids for who they are, regardless of the basketball. That can be hard to tell unless you know them personally and spend time with them behind the cameras.

[cellar-door]

Kevin O'Connor wrote about Lonzo today, and it has some interesting stuff that plays into some of my concerns about him as a pro prospect.
https://theringer.com/lonzo-ball-ucla-shooting-mechanics-6eeda2ef3e41

Basically it covers some of the stuff we already know, he basically can only shoot stepbacks to his left with any consistency off the dribble. He has a bit of a hitch sometimes as he re-positions the ball.
The interesting one was about how he basically has only shot well with the Wilson ball UCLA uses. It's a small sample, but as O'Connor points out, so is his good 3pt shooting overall, he didn't shoot well at Adidas nations and he was only a mediocre 3pt shooter in HS.

[ForeverTFC]

Kevin O'Connor wrote about Lonzo today, and it has some interesting stuff that plays into some of my concerns about him as a pro prospect.
https://theringer.com/lonzo-ball-ucla-shooting-mechanics-6eeda2ef3e41

Basically it covers some of the stuff we already know, he basically can only shoot stepbacks to his left with any consistency off the dribble. He has a bit of a hitch sometimes as he re-positions the ball.
The interesting one was about how he basically has only shot well with the Wilson ball UCLA uses. It's a small sample, but as O'Connor points out, so is his good 3pt shooting overall, he didn't shoot well at Adidas nations and he was only a mediocre 3pt shooter in HS.

Read that article today and it reaches way too much.

First, the number of "non-wilson" shots is way too low - it's a 44 shot sample. If he goes 7/12 in two games he's suddenly a 40% shooter without a wilson Ball. Second, to say that a 19 year old's most recent numbers are an outlier is just ridiculous. He's supposed to improve.

Ball has to learn how to shoot going right - that much is obvious to everyone. But he has good handles, is a smart passer, can finish at the rim, and - the most underrated part of him game and something that should help him in the NBA - he's a great off-ball mover. Not sure how he'll develop, but he's definitely worth the gamble of a top 5 pick.

[Marcus]

Kevin O'Connor wrote about Lonzo today, and it has some interesting stuff that plays into some of my concerns about him as a pro prospect.
https://theringer.com/lonzo-ball-ucla-shooting-mechanics-6eeda2ef3e41

Basically it covers some of the stuff we already know, he basically can only shoot stepbacks to his left with any consistency off the dribble. He has a bit of a hitch sometimes as he re-positions the ball.
The interesting one was about how he basically has only shot well with the Wilson ball UCLA uses. It's a small sample, but as O'Connor points out, so is his good 3pt shooting overall, he didn't shoot well at Adidas nations and he was only a mediocre 3pt shooter in HS.

Read that article today and it reaches way too much.

First, the number of "non-wilson" shots is way too low - it's a 44 shot sample. If he goes 7/12 in two games he's suddenly a 40% shooter without a wilson Ball. Second, to say that a 19 year old's most recent numbers are an outlier is just ridiculous. He's supposed to improve.

Ball has to learn how to shoot going right - that much is obvious to everyone. But he has good handles, is a smart passer, can finish at the rim, and - the most underrated part of him game and something that should help him in the NBA - he's a great off-ball mover. Not sure how he'll develop, but he's definitely worth the gamble of a top 5 pick.

Everybody wants a reason to slow down the hype or try to say something isn't plausible because they don't understand how it works.

[MEGAQUIB]

I think Lonzo is the clear number 1 pick. Worst case scenario is a defensive guard that shoots 3's. best case scenario is a 20-10 pg that is excellent on defense.