Tankapolooza: Draft Lottery Odds/Watch thread

[Xatticus]

The Los Angeles Lakers have shut down Timofey Mozgov despite being healthy ....

And totally unrelated:

The Lakers keep their first round pick this season if it's in the top-3.

The NBA must solve the problem of teams trying to lose games.

I loved the idea that the top-7 teams go directly to the playoffs and the bottom 8 play in a single game elimination tourney for the final slot. (there is a 15-team conference so that works out perfectly). Not only is this beautiful television - it makes team want a higher seed in the play-to-enter tourney.


..

The NBA could just remove some of the stupid pick protections that they permit right now. Short of revamping the way the lottery works, tanking will always be a reality to some extent. The league just has to remove the absurd incentives that have been created by things like top 3 protections. Lottery protection is as much as should be permitted.

[shadrock]

Potentially a very big day for the WORC pick. OKC just beat the Raptors, meaning they have jumped the Raps in the tank standings. Also, Clippers are losing at the moment, and Grizz are winning at the moment as well. Looking conceivable that this pick could get as high as #21.

[fbeye343]

I can't believe the Knicks are going to lose to the Nets twice in the span of a week

[Viper1500]

I can't believe the Knicks are going to lose to the Nets twice in the span of a week

Yeah I am still very worried about the knicks.


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[PrimeThyme]

Knicks are such a joke.

[OrlandO]

I can't believe the Knicks are going to lose to the Nets twice in the span of a week

I can't believe Andrew Nicholson can't get any minutes on the Nets...

[shadrock]

So, WORC pick is now looking possible to be as good as #21 after todays games... very happy camper.

[cedric76]

Outtanking the Suns is a possibility but not LA. Have you watched them play? They are god awful. That and they have shut down all their vets and are running full youth. I really can't see them winning more than 2 games left this year. We have like 4-5 winnable games left.

If we end up dropping both games to Philly and Phoenix later this week, that would be a tank dream. Then again we might get screwed in the lottery. Even the Nets only have a 25% chance at the 1st pick.

Yeah it sucks man. Out tanking LA would have been so huge.

I rather be in the 3rd worse then 2nd. The second has the highest chance to fall back to the 4th pick.

Lol another smart tanker

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[shadrock]

Yeah it sucks man. Out tanking LA would have been so huge.

I rather be in the 3rd worse then 2nd. The second has the highest chance to fall back to the 4th pick.

Lol another smart tanker

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[thelead]

Dafuq am I reading?

[DiplomaticMagic]

So, WORC pick is now looking possible to be as good as #21 after todays games... very happy camper.

I thought I was only one checking for the WoRC pick. Very good night for that pick. But seriously Knicks? I hope we can lose to the Nets twice in a week.

[drsd]

The Magic cannot reasonably be caught be the Knicks, the Pelicans, or the Kings. Orlando is 2 1/2 games worse than those teams.

and

The Wizards is now a full two games over the Clippers and the Raptors. So WoRC looks fairly locked to the 23rd selection. The Magic needs either the Thunder or the Grizzlies to get hot to overtake both. If OKC and Memphis overtake both LA and Toronto, then yes 21 is as good as it gets.

and Orlando project at #33-#35 with its second, where #34 is most probable.

....

So :

The Nets will be the worst team (congrats Boston).

The 2-4th worst teams will be the Suns, Magic, and the Sixers. This is a real cat race.

The 6th - 13th teams is a weird horse race with all kinds of permutations.


In conclusion, the Magic is most probable to a) draft in the top-4 (70% chance), b) at pick 23, and something like #34. I will call the top pick #3 even though it is not the most probable outcome (reasoning being Orlando looks to have a 47% chance for a top-3 pick but only a 23% chance for pick=#4).

NBA draft has this as 3-Jayson Tatum, 23-Tyler Lydon, and 34-Tony Bradley. I for one would be happy with that outcome. Tatum is exactly what Orlando needs at the 3 (after a couple NBA years) and Lydon projects as a solid bench player: a rebounding, long-ball shooter at the PF slot. I am not excited about Bradley as he looks like a stiff. With PJ Dozier and Jawun Evans projected to be available, I think the high 2nd would be best used for a 3rd-string PG that has upside potential. Still, I can get behind Lydon and Bradley.


..

[pepe1991]

Key is outtank Knicks and Kings. Problem is that Batum is probably done for a year and Hornets are another team in the mix to trow D league players. Biggest problem,however, is fact that all other tankers already shut down their vets. And Vogel is still trying to win games.

[IllMagic04]

The Magic cannot reasonably be caught be the Knicks, the Pelicans, or the Kings. Orlando is 2 1/2 games worse than those teams.

and

The Wizards is now a full two games over the Clippers and the Raptors. So WoRC looks fairly locked to the 23rd selection. The Magic needs either the Thunder or the Grizzlies to get hot to overtake both. If OKC and Memphis overtake both LA and Toronto, then yes 21 is as good as it gets.

and Orlando project at #33-#35 with its second, where #34 is most probable.

....

So :

The Nets will be the worst team (congrats Boston).

The 2-4th worst teams will be the Suns, Magic, and the Sixers. This is a real cat race.

The 6th - 13th teams is a weird horse race with all kinds of permutations.


In conclusion, the Magic is most probable to a) draft in the top-4 (70% chance), b) at pick 23, and something like #34. I will call the top pick #3 even though it is not the most probable outcome (reasoning being Orlando looks to have a 47% chance for a top-3 pick but only a 23% chance for pick=#4).

NBA draft has this as 3-Jayson Tatum, 23-Tyler Lydon, and 34-Tony Bradley. I for one would be happy with that outcome. Tatum is exactly what Orlando needs at the 3 (after a couple NBA years) and Lydon projects as a solid bench player: a rebounding, long-ball shooter at the PF slot. I am not excited about Bradley as he looks like a stiff. With PJ Dozier and Jawun Evans projected to be available, I think the high 2nd would be best used for a 3rd-string PG that has upside potential. Still, I can get behind Lydon and Bradley.


..

Your getting over confident. The Knicks have a hard schedule left and they have gotten past 2 games with the nets with losses. We still got 2 games with the nets and our next 2 games are winnable. This is far from over.

[cedric76]

44% lal lose pick. Let's pray. Fukkk the tank

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[Mc-o]

The Magic cannot reasonably be caught be the Knicks, the Pelicans, or the Kings. Orlando is 2 1/2 games worse than those teams.

and

The Wizards is now a full two games over the Clippers and the Raptors. So WoRC looks fairly locked to the 23rd selection. The Magic needs either the Thunder or the Grizzlies to get hot to overtake both. If OKC and Memphis overtake both LA and Toronto, then yes 21 is as good as it gets.

and Orlando project at #33-#35 with its second, where #34 is most probable.

....

So :

The Nets will be the worst team (congrats Boston).

The 2-4th worst teams will be the Suns, Magic, and the Sixers. This is a real cat race.

The 6th - 13th teams is a weird horse race with all kinds of permutations.


In conclusion, the Magic is most probable to a) draft in the top-4 (70% chance), b) at pick 23, and something like #34. I will call the top pick #3 even though it is not the most probable outcome (reasoning being Orlando looks to have a 47% chance for a top-3 pick but only a 23% chance for pick=#4).

NBA draft has this as 3-Jayson Tatum, 23-Tyler Lydon, and 34-Tony Bradley. I for one would be happy with that outcome. Tatum is exactly what Orlando needs at the 3 (after a couple NBA years) and Lydon projects as a solid bench player: a rebounding, long-ball shooter at the PF slot. I am not excited about Bradley as he looks like a stiff. With PJ Dozier and Jawun Evans projected to be available, I think the high 2nd would be best used for a 3rd-string PG that has upside potential. Still, I can get behind Lydon and Bradley.


..

Your getting over confident. The Knicks have a hard schedule left and they have gotten past 2 games with the nets with losses. We still got 2 games with the nets and our next 2 games are winnable. This is far from over.

lol don't worry this team is bad , worst than you realize

[GameOver25]

The Magic cannot reasonably be caught be the Knicks, the Pelicans, or the Kings. Orlando is 2 1/2 games worse than those teams.

and

The Wizards is now a full two games over the Clippers and the Raptors. So WoRC looks fairly locked to the 23rd selection. The Magic needs either the Thunder or the Grizzlies to get hot to overtake both. If OKC and Memphis overtake both LA and Toronto, then yes 21 is as good as it gets.

and Orlando project at #33-#35 with its second, where #34 is most probable.

....

So :

The Nets will be the worst team (congrats Boston).

The 2-4th worst teams will be the Suns, Magic, and the Sixers. This is a real cat race.

The 6th - 13th teams is a weird horse race with all kinds of permutations.


In conclusion, the Magic is most probable to a) draft in the top-4 (70% chance), b) at pick 23, and something like #34. I will call the top pick #3 even though it is not the most probable outcome (reasoning being Orlando looks to have a 47% chance for a top-3 pick but only a 23% chance for pick=#4).

NBA draft has this as 3-Jayson Tatum, 23-Tyler Lydon, and 34-Tony Bradley. I for one would be happy with that outcome. Tatum is exactly what Orlando needs at the 3 (after a couple NBA years) and Lydon projects as a solid bench player: a rebounding, long-ball shooter at the PF slot. I am not excited about Bradley as he looks like a stiff. With PJ Dozier and Jawun Evans projected to be available, I think the high 2nd would be best used for a 3rd-string PG that has upside potential. Still, I can get behind Lydon and Bradley.


..

Your getting over confident. The Knicks have a hard schedule left and they have gotten past 2 games with the nets with losses. We still got 2 games with the nets and our next 2 games are winnable. This is far from over.

lol don't worry this team is bad , worst than you realize

We just lost to a D-league Kings squad and yesterday was torched by a struggling Warriors team. The Ross new car smell has already worn off. Fournier still thinks he's a star. Vuc is a weakling and hobbled at the same time. Gordon is missing everything. EP is playing well, but still is scared to take the open shot. Our bench is horrible, DJ dribbles the ball for like 20 sec on every possession. Watson likes taking 20ft contested jumpers. With that all being said, Vogel still believes he has a shot to sneak into the playoffs. This team is so bad to watch.

[Viper1500]

Tonight's game and the philly game will really determine if we are picking 4th or 5th compared to 6th or 7th.


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[shadrock]

Philly up 30. Delightful.

[SOUL]

Sixers probably will win, meaning we can get away with a win tonight although a loss would be fantastic.